{ "meta": { "title": "ИИ-стек как структурная власть — Combined Master Pack", "version": "0.13", "created_at": "2026-06-28", "updated_at": "2026-07-03", "schema_version": "ai_stack_structural_power.v0.13.0-2026-07-03", "display_title_ru": "ИИ-стек: четыре структуры власти на одном КПП", "display_title_en": "AI stack: four structures of power at one checkpoint", "subtitle_ru": "Карта фактов о том, как вычисления, облака, модели, данные, кибер и капитал превращаются в среду по умолчанию: доступ дозируется, зависимость закрепляется, рента собирается.", "subtitle_en": "A fact map of how compute, clouds, models, data, cyber and capital become the default environment: access is metered, dependency is locked in, and rent is collected.", "source_pack": "ai_stack_structural_power_evidence_v0_13_storygraph_master.json", "method": "ProfGames-style layered organization. Merge of: (a) v0.4 operational pack (evidence/timeline/claim_checks/country_cards/cyber_pack/cognitive_security/critical_decision_use/palantir_case/weekly_memo/gaps), (b) v0.2 factcheck layer (claims with recommended_phrasing_ru/counterarguments/recommendations), (c) new v0.3 research closing the Stanford-tables and chip-license gaps and adding model-layer export-control claims.", "changelog": [ { "version": "0.13", "date": "2026-07-03", "description": "Integrated spent-vs-announced AI investment workbook. Added capital_ledger, 6 capital evidence signals, new capital-mix cards, and v0.13 story edges. Marked spreadsheet-only G42/GenAI4EU/HUMAIN lines as caveated rather than verified.", "added_evidence": 6, "added_story_edges": 6 }, { "version": "0.12", "date": "2026-06-30", "description": "Added capital-mix structure, reframed access/cyber thesis labels, added 12 evidence signals, 2 story arcs and explicit edges for capital, corporate decision-support, cyber PoC/weaponization clusters.", "added_evidence": 13, "added_story_arcs": 2 }, { "version": "0.11", "date": "2026-06-29", "description": "Merged targeted heatmap backfill from v0.11 research candidates. Added 22 evidence signals, 2 story arcs (data licensing as input layer; cloud capacity/vendor lock-in), and explicit story edges so sparse 2024-2025 model/data/cloud/cyber cells are represented without changing v0.10.", "added_evidence": 22, "added_story_arcs": 2 }, { "version": "0.10", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "Fixed dangling story arcs in visualization. Added 29 explicit story_arc→thesis edges. hanging_arcs_after_fix=[]. Restored full v0.8 narrative graph and merged v0.9 timeline backfill arcs.", "added_arc_thesis_edges": 29 }, { "version": "0.9", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "Backfilled 2022-2023 timeline with formation-phase events (+15 timeline rows, +15 evidence rows, +3 claims). Theme: 2022 = industrial policy + first controls + public deployment shock; 2023 = cloud/model lock-in, governance shock, China counter-controls, outbound capital controls, AIxCC launch, and A800/H800 workaround closure.", "added_claims": 3, "added_evidence": 15, "added_timeline": 15 }, { "version": "0.8", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "FINAL pass. Closed GAP_020 (transshipment scale via three DOJ cases: Super Micro ~$2.5B, ALX via Singapore/Malaysia, Janford 400 A100; Taiwan first prosecution) and GAP_021 (data-center cancellations: Sightline/Bloomberg ~5 of 16 GW building, 30-50% delayed/cancelled; Data Center Watch 75+/$130B). Added export-18 (transshipment leakage + enforcement escalation) and scale-12 (energy constraint materially binding the buildout). Cross-linked ca-05/ca-08 to DOJ evidence. Theme reinforced: controls leak yet impose growing cost/delay/risk/policing; energy is a binding-but-contingent bottom-of-stack layer.", "added_claims": 2, "added_evidence": 5 }, { "version": "0.7", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "Merged the confirm/refute delta: +11 evidence, +5 claim_checks, +5 gaps (GAP_020-024), +3 counterarguments (ca-08/09/10). Added 7 granular factcheck claims with RU phrasing: control leakage/enforcement (export-17, Malaysia seizure), energy-as-stack-layer with flexibility (scale-10), data-center political backlash (scale-11), war data flywheel (cogsec-10), drone mass-militarization + public legitimacy (cogsec-11), finance kill-switch governance (cogsec-12), decision-sovereignty risk+mitigation (cogsec-13). Marked GAP_015 partially addressed; cross-linked ca-05 to the Malaysia seizure. Theme: control need not be airtight to be structural; energy is real but local/software-manageable; war is a data flywheel; finance moved to governed shutdown.", "added_claims": 7, "added_evidence": 11 }, { "version": "0.6", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "Closed GAP_009 (model-export order primary basis: BIS 'is-informed' letter, Lutnick->Amodei, ECRA 50 USC 4817(b)(1) + EAR 744.22(b); Bloomberg copy; legal validity contested) and GAP_017 (Palantir Army EA primary record: contract W519TC-25-D-0039, $10B ceiling, $0 obligated at award, 75 contracts consolidated). GAP_013 partially addressed. Added export-16 (legal instrument + contested basis) and cogsec-09 (Palantir decision-OS primary). Money-discipline correction: $10B is a ceiling, not spend.", "added_claims": 2, "added_evidence": 2 }, { "version": "0.5", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "Merged v0.4 operational pack + v0.2 factcheck layer + new v0.3 research. Closed GAP_001 (Stanford AI Index 2026 primary tables: $344.7B global private, $581.7B corporate, $184B-vs-$912B guidance-fund clarification) and GAP_004 (chip toll-and-throttle regime: H200/MI325X case-by-case, Blackwell denial, Huawei 600k Ascend). Added 6 granular claims incl. model-layer export control (export-13/14/15) and the Mythos/360 cyber cluster (cyber-06/07). Imported claims+counterarguments+recommendations that the operational line lacked. Preserved v0.4's Mythos/Fable/360 evidence, critical_decision_use and palantir_case untouched.", "added_claims": 6, "added_evidence": 6 }, { "version": "0.4", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "(User offline) Expanded operational pack to 61 evidence / 42 timeline / 19 claim_checks / 19 gaps; added critical_decision_use and palantir_case; integrated Mythos/Fable/Glasswing/360 cluster." }, { "version": "0.2", "date": "2026-06-28", "description": "Factcheck pack: 50 claims, computed stats, money_status + recommended_phrasing_ru, counterarguments, recommendations." } ] }, "summary": { "stats": { "total_claims": 67, "verified": 48, "partially_verified": 17, "needs_correction": 0, "not_verified": 0, "disputed": 2, "not_found": 0 }, "approximate_pass_rate": "97% verified or partially verified", "key_findings": [ "Capital concentration is real and extreme: US private AI investment was $285.9B in 2025 vs China $12.4B (~23x), but this understates China because private-investment databases miss state guidance funds (~$184B into AI 2000-2023). [Stanford AI Index 2026]", "The most defensible structural-power fact is the export-control chronology: the US converts private chip sales into leverage (Oct 2022 controls; Jan 2025 AI Diffusion Rule; May 2025 rescission + Huawei GP10 guidance; Aug 2025 15% revenue-share; May 2026 BIS D:5/Macau extraterritorial guidance).", "The codified tier order is currently IN FLUX, not settled: the AI Diffusion Rule was rescinded (May 2025) and its draft replacement was withdrawn (March 2026) — phrase the world-tier system as an active project run through discretionary guidance, antitrust (EU DMA on AWS/Azure) and alliance formation (Pax Silica).", "Machine-speed offensive cyber at scale is NOT established fact. The proven datapoint is defensive find-and-fix (DARPA AIxCC 86% found / 68% patched; OSS-CRS found 10 real bugs). The headline offensive claim (Anthropic GTG-1002) is contested — no IoCs, admitted hallucinations, no government corroboration.", "Cognitive influence moved from lab demo to measured in-the-wild prevalence: 15.3K validated indirect-prompt-injection instances across 1.2B URLs; ~1% of 200K resumes carry hidden injections; 8,648 successful agent injections over 272K attempts. The missing piece is a confirmed government/enterprise decision-support incident.", "Data/model poisoning is a credible knowledge-structure attack surface: ~250 documents (0.00016% of data) can backdoor models regardless of size (Anthropic/UK AISI/Alan Turing). AI decision-support is embedded at the security core (DoD $200M-ceiling deals to four labs; Claude via Palantir in classified workflows).", "Gulf/UK/India/EU/Russia sovereign AI is better framed as MANAGED DEPENDENCE: access to frontier compute under external assurance and alignment conditions (G42 stripped Huawei gear; Stargate UK paused; IndiaAI and Amazon $13B build on Nvidia/foreign cloud; Russia is isolated autarky bottlenecked by CUDA).", "Open weights create an exit at the model-artifact layer (DeepSeek R1/V4, Qwen, Kimi, GLM-5 on Ascend/SMIC) but do not automatically transfer learning curves: DeepSeek reportedly reverted R2 to Nvidia after Ascend instability; SMIC ~30-50% 7nm yields remain binding.", "NEW (2026): export controls reached the MODEL layer — on 12 June 2026 Commerce ordered Anthropic to bar all foreign-national access to Fable 5 / Mythos 5 (license now required to export/transfer the models); Anthropic disabled them worldwide, the DoD branded Anthropic a 'supply-chain risk', Anthropic sued, and Mythos 5 was later cleared to ~100 vetted US orgs. A frontier model treated as a controlled munition.", "NEW (2026): the chip lever is a graduated toll-and-throttle regime, not a wall — BIS put H200/MI325X on case-by-case review (25% tariff, 50% cap, KYC, US inspection), Blackwell stays denied, H20 flows under the 15% deal, and Beijing throttles imports from its side while Huawei targets 600k Ascend 910C in 2026.", "NEW (2026): Stanford AI Index 2026 primary aggregates — global private AI investment $344.7B (+127.5%), corporate $581.7B (+130%); guidance-fund clarification: ~$184B into AI (2000-2023), NOT the $912B all-industry figure many recaps misuse.", "NEW (2026): the Mythos cyber 'weapon' is best framed as ACCESS ASYMMETRY (one-way transparency: ~40 Glasswing orgs, US-persons-only), not a settled machine-speed-0day leap — Anthropic itself says the flagged jailbreak found only minor known bugs and comparable capability exists elsewhere; China's 360 'Mythos-equivalent' counter-claim is unverified by Reuters.", "NEW (v0.6): the model-export directive's legal instrument is a BIS 'is-informed' letter (Lutnick->Amodei) under ECRA 50 USC 4817(b)(1) + EAR 744.22(b) — first use against an AI model — but its validity is openly contested (services arguably outside export law; worldwide scope exceeds the statute's country list; First Amendment), with 80+ security leaders and G7 governments urging restoration; the government has not published the order.", "NEW (v0.6): Palantir primary record — the U.S. Army Enterprise Agreement (W519TC-25-D-0039, 31 Jul 2025) consolidates 75 contracts into one 10-year vehicle with a $10B CEILING but $0 obligated at award. Cite as maximum potential value, not spend; the structural point is consolidation/lock-in into a single decision-and-data vendor.", "NEW (v0.7): controls leak but also police — Malaysia seized 72 AI-chip servers (~$12.93M) at KLIA in June 2026 (declared as computer components, bound for re-export). Structural power is cost/delay/risk/surveillance, not perfect denial; leverage need not be airtight to be structural.", "NEW (v0.7): energy/grid is a real bottom-of-stack layer (six firms ~118 TWh 2024 -> 239-295 TWh 2030, regional stress) but NOT absolute — GPU clusters can be grid-responsive (curtail/shift load), cutting grid costs 3-21% in some settings; frame energy as local and software-manageable, and note a US public backlash (poll: ~half back a temporary build ban).", "NEW (v0.7): war is a data flywheel — Ukraine's military is the largest AI consumer with 500k+ hours of drone footage as training data; South Korea is mass-militarizing the drone/AI layer (500k operators, Chinese-component exclusion); publics are conditionally permissive on military AI but draw the line at fully autonomous lethal force.", "NEW (v0.7): finance moved from AI adoption to governed shutdown — RBI's draft framework adds board accountability, independent validation, human oversight and decommissioning ('kill-switch') logic; the precise sovereignty risk is supplier boundary control, mitigable via model replaceability and state-owned orchestration.", "NEW (v0.8): transshipment leakage is documented and large (DOJ Super Micro ~$2.5B / $510M in weeks; ALX via Singapore/Malaysia; Janford 400 A100 via Malaysia/Thailand) AND enforcement is escalating (DOJ's largest-ever AI-hardware case, Taiwan's first criminal prosecution, Malaysia permits/seizure). Controls leak yet impose growing cost/delay/risk/policing; total gray-market volume remains unquantified.", "NEW (v0.8): the energy bottleneck is materially binding the US buildout (only ~5 of ~16 GW of 2026 capacity under construction; 30-50% delayed/cancelled; transformers 3-5yr, switchgear through 2028, interconnection 3-7yr; 75+ projects / ~$130B blocked in Q1 2026) — real but, per the flexibility evidence, regionally and technologically contingent.", "NEW (v0.11): heatmap backfill shows 2024-2025 model/data/cloud/cyber cells were under-collected, not empty: GPT-4o, Claude 3/3.5, Gemini 1.5, Llama 3.1/4, DeepSeek-R1, Oracle/OpenAI capacity, Amazon/Anthropic, Reddit/Google data API, News Corp/OpenAI, Big Sleep and OpenAI/Microsoft threat-actor disruption add missing model-access, data-licensing, cloud-capacity and defensive-cyber milestones.", "NEW (v0.12): capital concentration should be displayed as a mix of accounting regimes: US annual private investment, China private + cumulative guidance funds, EU InvestAI mobilization, Gulf sovereign vehicles/reported funds, and compute-capacity contracts. Do not sum these as one comparable total.", "NEW (v0.12): cyber thesis reframed from “autonomy not proven” to “weapon exists, scale and attribution remain contested”: Anthropic/MITRE AI-orchestrated campaign, 15/129 public PoC migration, 3/129 heavy weaponization, and a separate Defender/Windows cluster.", "NEW (v0.12): decision_support_cognition 2023–2025 backfill adds enterprise adoption evidence: Morgan Stanley GPT-4 assistant, Microsoft/LinkedIn Work Trend Index, JPMorgan LLM Suite, and McKinsey State of AI adoption.", "NEW (v0.13): The capital layer now has a spent-vs-announced ledger. 2025 global corporate AI investment is $581.7B annual flow (not hyperscaler capex); selected AI-specific multi-year announcements total about $1.229T, but this total mixes pledges, mobilization targets, state plans and public programs and must not be added to annual spend." ], "capital_mix": [ { "label_ru": "Мир: годовые корпоративные ИИ-инвестиции", "label_en": "World: annual corporate AI investment", "amount": "$581.7B", "period": "2025", "mode_ru": "годовой поток: частные сделки + M&A", "mode_en": "annual flow, private + M&A", "source_name": "Stanford AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "caveat_ru": "Не включает большую часть капзатрат гиперскейлеров; не складывать с анонсами.", "caveat_en": "Excludes much hyperscaler capex; do not add to announcements." }, { "label_ru": "США: частные ИИ-инвестиции", "label_en": "US: private AI investment", "amount": "$285.9B", "period": "2025", "mode_ru": "частный капитал", "mode_en": "private capital", "source_name": "Stanford AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "caveat_ru": "Годовой показатель частных инвестиций; не равен государственным программам или капитальным затратам.", "caveat_en": "Annual private-investment metric; not equivalent to state programs or capex." }, { "label_ru": "Китай: частные ИИ-инвестиции", "label_en": "China: private AI investment", "amount": "$12.4B", "period": "2025", "mode_ru": "частный капитал", "mode_en": "private capital", "source_name": "Stanford AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "caveat_ru": "Частная цифра занижает общую картину, потому что не включает государственно-направляемые фонды.", "caveat_en": "Private-investment data understates China because it misses state guidance funds." }, { "label_ru": "Китай: госфонды в ИИ-компании", "label_en": "China: AI guidance funds", "amount": "~$184B", "period": "2000-2023, накопительно", "mode_ru": "накопительный государственно-направляемый капитал", "mode_en": "state-guidance capital", "source_name": "Stanford AI Index 2026 / NBER 2024", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "caveat_ru": "Накопительная оценка; её нельзя напрямую сравнивать с годовым показателем частных инвестиций.", "caveat_en": "Cumulative estimate; do not compare directly with annual private investment." }, { "label_ru": "США: Stargate, объявленный объём", "label_en": "US: Stargate pledge", "amount": "$500B", "period": "2025-2029, намерение", "mode_ru": "обещанный инфраструктурный объём", "mode_en": "pledge / infrastructure intention", "source_name": "OpenAI", "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/", "caveat_ru": "До $500B за четыре года; $100B стартово. Это обещанный объём, не уже потраченные деньги.", "caveat_en": "Up to $500B over four years; $100B initial. This is a pledge, not deployed spend." }, { "label_ru": "Китай: новые госанонсы", "label_en": "China: new state announcements", "amount": "$433B", "period": "2025-2026, анонсы", "mode_ru": "госфонд + план дата-центров", "mode_en": "state guidance + data-center plan", "source_name": "Reuters / Bloomberg reporting", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-fund-nationwide-ai-buildout-bloomberg-news-2026-06-09/", "caveat_ru": "$138B фонд + $295B план дата-центров по сообщениям прессы; второе ждёт первичный документ.", "caveat_en": "$138B fund plus reported $295B DC plan; the latter awaits primary policy text." }, { "label_ru": "Залив: включённые ИИ-анонсы", "label_en": "Gulf: included AI announcements", "amount": "$110B", "period": "многолетний горизонт", "mode_ru": "суверенные программы; часть требует проверки", "mode_en": "sovereign programs / user-data caveat", "source_name": "XLSX synthesis", "url": "", "caveat_ru": "HUMAIN/PIF $100B + G42 $10B; G42-сумма требует перепроверки.", "caveat_en": "HUMAIN/PIF $100B plus G42 $10B; the G42 figure needs recheck." }, { "label_ru": "Европа: включённые ИИ-анонсы", "label_en": "Europe: included AI announcements", "amount": "~$182.1B", "period": "многолетний горизонт", "mode_ru": "мобилизация капитала и госпрограммы", "mode_en": "mobilized/public programs", "source_name": "Élysée / European Commission / XLSX", "url": "https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/11/make-france-an-ai-powerhouse", "caveat_ru": "Франция €109B + публичная часть ЕС + GenAI4EU; это не то же самое, что общий заголовок InvestAI на €200B.", "caveat_en": "France EUR109B plus EU public component plus GenAI4EU; not the same as the EUR200B InvestAI headline." }, { "label_ru": "Прочие: национальные ИИ-программы", "label_en": "Other: national AI commitments", "amount": "$3.65B", "period": "объявлено в 2024", "mode_ru": "государственные программы", "mode_en": "public programs", "source_name": "Canada PM / India PIB", "url": "https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2024/04/07/securing-canadas-ai-advantage", "caveat_ru": "Канада $2.4B + IndiaAI около $1.25B; небольшие строки, но полезны для категории «прочие».", "caveat_en": "Canada $2.4B plus IndiaAI about $1.25B; small but useful for “all others”." } ], "capital_ledger": { "source_file": "Инвестиции_в_ИИ_потрачено_vs_анонсы.xlsx", "extracted_file": "investments_ai_spent_vs_announcements_extracted.json", "exchange_rate_eur_usd": 1.14, "exchange_rate_note_ru": "В исходной таблице EUR пересчитан по 1 EUR = $1.14; это рабочий курс на 2026-07-02, а не постоянная константа.", "exchange_rate_note_en": "The source workbook converts EUR at 1 EUR = $1.14; this is a working rate as of 2026-07-02, not a permanent constant.", "non_additivity_ru": "Не складывать годовые потоки, частные инвестиции, капитальные затраты, накопительные госфонды, суверенные программы, обещанные объёмы и цели мобилизации в один итог.", "non_additivity_en": "Do not add annual spent/corporate investment, private investment, capex, cumulative guidance funds, sovereign vehicles, pledges and mobilization targets into one total.", "spent_total_2025_usd_billion": 581.7, "spent_rows": [ { "region_en": "Global", "region_ru": "World", "metric_en": "Global corporate AI investment", "metric_ru": "Глобальные корпоративные инвестиции в ИИ", "amount_usd_billion": 581.7, "period": "2025", "mode_en": "private + M&A", "mode_ru": "частные + M&A", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "Global", "region_ru": "World", "metric_en": "Private AI investment subset", "metric_ru": "— из них частные инвестиции", "amount_usd_billion": 344.7, "period": "2025", "mode_en": "private", "mode_ru": "частные", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "Global", "region_ru": "World", "metric_en": "Global corporate AI investment trend baseline", "metric_ru": "Глобальные корпоративные инвестиции, база тренда", "amount_usd_billion": 253, "period": "2024", "mode_en": "private + M&A", "mode_ru": "частные + M&A", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "Global", "region_ru": "World", "metric_en": "Private investment in generative AI", "metric_ru": "Частные инвестиции в генеративный ИИ", "amount_usd_billion": 33.9, "period": "2024", "mode_en": "private", "mode_ru": "частные", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2025", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "US", "region_ru": "США", "metric_en": "Private AI investment", "metric_ru": "Частные инвестиции в ИИ", "amount_usd_billion": 285.9, "period": "2025", "mode_en": "private", "mode_ru": "частные", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "US", "region_ru": "США", "metric_en": "Private AI investment", "metric_ru": "Частные инвестиции в ИИ", "amount_usd_billion": 109.1, "period": "2024", "mode_en": "private", "mode_ru": "частные", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2025", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "US", "region_ru": "США", "metric_en": "Google AI infrastructure capex", "metric_ru": "Капзатраты Google на AI-инфраструктуру", "amount_usd_billion": 150, "period": "2025", "mode_en": "private capex", "mode_ru": "частные, capex", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "China", "region_ru": "КНР", "metric_en": "Private AI investment", "metric_ru": "Частные инвестиции в ИИ", "amount_usd_billion": 12.4, "period": "2025", "mode_en": "private", "mode_ru": "частные", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2026", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "China", "region_ru": "КНР", "metric_en": "Private AI investment", "metric_ru": "Частные инвестиции в ИИ", "amount_usd_billion": 9.3, "period": "2024", "mode_en": "private", "mode_ru": "частные", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2025", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "China", "region_ru": "КНР", "metric_en": "Government venture funds into AI companies, cumulative", "metric_ru": "Госвенчурфонды в AI-компании, накопительно", "amount_usd_billion": 184, "period": "2000-2023", "mode_en": "state-guidance capital", "mode_ru": "государственно-направляемый капитал", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2026 / NBER 2024", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "China", "region_ru": "КНР", "metric_en": "Early-stage state AI fund, launched", "metric_ru": "Госфонд ранних стадий ИИ, запуск", "amount_usd_billion": 8.2, "period": "2025", "mode_en": "state fund", "mode_ru": "госфонд", "source_name": "Press reporting, Apr 2025", "url": "", "status": "reported_unconfirmed", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "UK", "region_ru": "Великобритания", "metric_en": "Private AI investment", "metric_ru": "Частные инвестиции в ИИ", "amount_usd_billion": 4.5, "period": "2024", "mode_en": "private", "mode_ru": "частные", "source_name": "Stanford HAI AI Index 2025", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report/economy", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" } ], "announcement_rows": [ { "region_en": "US", "region_ru": "США", "initiative_en": "Stargate (OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle/MGX)", "initiative_ru": "Stargate (OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle/MGX)", "amount_original": 500, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 500, "horizon_en": "4 years to 2029", "horizon_ru": "4 года, до 2029", "mode_en": "private pledge / infrastructure intention", "mode_ru": "частный обещанный инфраструктурный объём", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Official announcement: $100B to be deployed immediately, intention up to $500B over four years. Not committed/deployed capital.", "status_note_ru": "Официальный анонс: $100B на старт и намерение до $500B за четыре года. Это не уже потраченные и не гарантированно выделенные деньги.", "source_name": "OpenAI", "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/", "status": "verified_as_announcement", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "US", "region_ru": "США", "initiative_en": "Four-hyperscaler 2026 capex context", "initiative_ru": "Капзатраты 4 гиперскейлеров, контекст 2026", "amount_original": 700, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 700, "horizon_en": "2026", "horizon_ru": "2026", "mode_en": "annual capex context", "mode_ru": "годовой контекст капзатрат", "include_in_total": false, "status_note_en": "Context line, not a discrete AI announcement and not included in totals.", "status_note_ru": "Контекстная строка, не дискретный AI-анонс и не включена в итог.", "source_name": "XLSX synthesis", "url": "", "status": "context_only", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "China", "region_ru": "КНР", "initiative_en": "National venture capital guidance fund", "initiative_ru": "Национальный венчурный госфонд", "amount_original": 138, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 138, "horizon_en": "20 years", "horizon_ru": "20 лет", "mode_en": "state guidance fund", "mode_ru": "государственный направляющий фонд", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Reported March 2025 as a national VC guidance fund for hard technology including AI and quantum.", "status_note_ru": "Сообщено в марте 2025 как государственный венчурный фонд для hard tech, включая AI и quantum.", "source_name": "Reuters / CGTN", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-set-up-national-venture-capital-guidance-fund-state-planner-says-2025-03-06/", "status": "verified_as_reported", "confidence": "B" }, { "region_en": "China", "region_ru": "КНР", "initiative_en": "Nationwide AI data-center buildout plan", "initiative_ru": "Госстройка AI-дата-центров", "amount_original": 295, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 295, "horizon_en": "5 years", "horizon_ru": "5 лет", "mode_en": "state infrastructure plan", "mode_ru": "госинфраструктурный план", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Bloomberg-reported plan via Reuters; awaits primary policy text.", "status_note_ru": "План по Bloomberg через Reuters; нужен первичный policy-текст.", "source_name": "Reuters reporting Bloomberg", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-fund-nationwide-ai-buildout-bloomberg-news-2026-06-09/", "status": "reported_unconfirmed", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "China", "region_ru": "КНР", "initiative_en": "Big Fund III semiconductor fund", "initiative_ru": "Большой фонд III, полупроводники", "amount_original": 47.5, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 47.5, "horizon_en": "not fixed", "horizon_ru": "не указан", "mode_en": "chip-adjacent state fund", "mode_ru": "смежный полупроводниковый госфонд", "include_in_total": false, "status_note_en": "Chip-adjacent, not counted as AI-specific capital in this ledger.", "status_note_ru": "Смежно с чипами, но не считается AI-specific капиталом в этом ledger.", "source_name": "XLSX synthesis", "url": "", "status": "context_only", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "Gulf", "region_ru": "Залив", "initiative_en": "Saudi HUMAIN / PIF AI program", "initiative_ru": "Саудовская HUMAIN / PIF AI-программа", "amount_original": 100, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 100, "horizon_en": "5-10 years", "horizon_ru": "5-10 лет", "mode_en": "sovereign program", "mode_ru": "суверенная программа", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Treat as the same program as Project Transcendence; do not add a second $100B line.", "status_note_ru": "Считать тем же контуром, что Project Transcendence; не добавлять второй $100B.", "source_name": "XLSX synthesis / public reporting", "url": "", "status": "reported_unconfirmed", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "Gulf", "region_ru": "Залив", "initiative_en": "Saudi HUMAIN VC arm", "initiative_ru": "Саудовский VC-рукав HUMAIN", "amount_original": 10, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 10, "horizon_en": "not fixed", "horizon_ru": "не указан", "mode_en": "subset / VC arm", "mode_ru": "подмножество / VC-рукав", "include_in_total": false, "status_note_en": "Subset of the wider Saudi AI program; excluded to avoid double counting.", "status_note_ru": "Подмножество широкой саудовской AI-программы; исключено против двойного счёта.", "source_name": "XLSX synthesis", "url": "", "status": "context_only", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "Gulf", "region_ru": "Залив", "initiative_en": "Saudi Arabia + Google Cloud AI hub", "initiative_ru": "Саудовская Аравия + Google Cloud AI-хаб", "amount_original": 10, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 10, "horizon_en": "not fixed", "horizon_ru": "не указан", "mode_en": "joint project", "mode_ru": "совместный проект", "include_in_total": false, "status_note_en": "Potential overlap with Saudi/Gulf infrastructure programs.", "status_note_ru": "Возможное пересечение с саудовскими/заливными infrastructure programs.", "source_name": "XLSX synthesis", "url": "", "status": "context_only", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "Gulf", "region_ru": "Залив", "initiative_en": "UAE G42 fund", "initiative_ru": "ОАЭ: фонд G42", "amount_original": 10, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 10, "horizon_en": "not fixed", "horizon_ru": "не указан", "mode_en": "state / user-provided", "mode_ru": "гос / данные пользователя", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "User-provided line; exact fund amount needs independent primary confirmation.", "status_note_ru": "Строка из пользовательских данных; точная сумма фонда требует первичного подтверждения.", "source_name": "User-provided XLSX synthesis", "url": "", "status": "needs_primary_confirmation", "confidence": "D" }, { "region_en": "Europe", "region_ru": "Европа", "initiative_en": "France national AI plan", "initiative_ru": "Франция: национальный AI-план", "amount_original": 109, "currency": "EUR", "amount_usd_billion": 124.26, "horizon_en": "multi-year", "horizon_ru": "многолетний", "mode_en": "public-private mobilization", "mode_ru": "public-private мобилизация", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Mostly mobilized private capital; not deployed public spend.", "status_note_ru": "В основном мобилизованный частный капитал; не deployed public spend.", "source_name": "Élysée", "url": "https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/11/make-france-an-ai-powerhouse", "status": "verified_as_announcement", "confidence": "B" }, { "region_en": "Europe", "region_ru": "Европа", "initiative_en": "EU InvestAI mobilization target", "initiative_ru": "ЕС: InvestAI, цель мобилизации", "amount_original": 200, "currency": "EUR", "amount_usd_billion": 228, "horizon_en": "multi-year", "horizon_ru": "многолетний", "mode_en": "mobilization target", "mode_ru": "цель мобилизации", "include_in_total": false, "status_note_en": "Superset target; excluded from the regional included-total to avoid double counting.", "status_note_ru": "Целевое надмножество; исключено из included-total, чтобы не задвоить.", "source_name": "European Commission", "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/eu-launches-investai-initiative-mobilise-eu200-billion-investment-artificial-intelligence", "status": "verified_as_announcement", "confidence": "B" }, { "region_en": "Europe", "region_ru": "Европа", "initiative_en": "EU InvestAI confirmed public component", "initiative_ru": "ЕС: InvestAI, подтверждённый public-компонент", "amount_original": 50, "currency": "EUR", "amount_usd_billion": 57, "horizon_en": "multi-year", "horizon_ru": "многолетний", "mode_en": "public funding component", "mode_ru": "public funding component", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Spreadsheet separates this from the EUR200B mobilization target; EUR20B is for AI gigafactories.", "status_note_ru": "Таблица отделяет это от цели мобилизации EUR200B; EUR20B идёт на AI gigafactories.", "source_name": "XLSX synthesis / European Commission framing", "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/eu-launches-investai-initiative-mobilise-eu200-billion-investment-artificial-intelligence", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "C" }, { "region_en": "Europe", "region_ru": "Европа", "initiative_en": "EU GenAI4EU", "initiative_ru": "ЕС: GenAI4EU", "amount_original": 0.7, "currency": "EUR", "amount_usd_billion": 0.798, "horizon_en": "multi-year", "horizon_ru": "многолетний", "mode_en": "public program", "mode_ru": "госпрограмма", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "User-provided line; exact amount needs recheck.", "status_note_ru": "Строка из пользовательских данных; точная сумма требует перепроверки.", "source_name": "User-provided XLSX synthesis", "url": "", "status": "needs_primary_confirmation", "confidence": "D" }, { "region_en": "Other", "region_ru": "Прочие", "initiative_en": "Canada national AI commitment", "initiative_ru": "Канада: национальное AI-обязательство", "amount_original": 2.4, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 2.4, "horizon_en": "not fixed", "horizon_ru": "не указан", "mode_en": "public commitment", "mode_ru": "государственное обязательство", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Official Canadian AI package.", "status_note_ru": "Официальный канадский AI-пакет.", "source_name": "Prime Minister of Canada", "url": "https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2024/04/07/securing-canadas-ai-advantage", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" }, { "region_en": "Other", "region_ru": "Прочие", "initiative_en": "IndiaAI Mission", "initiative_ru": "Индия: IndiaAI Mission", "amount_original": 1.25, "currency": "USD", "amount_usd_billion": 1.25, "horizon_en": "not fixed", "horizon_ru": "не указан", "mode_en": "public mission", "mode_ru": "государственная миссия", "include_in_total": true, "status_note_en": "Official IndiaAI Mission approval; USD value is spreadsheet conversion/rounding.", "status_note_ru": "Официальное утверждение IndiaAI Mission; USD-значение из таблицы/округления.", "source_name": "Government of India PIB", "url": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2012375", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A" } ], "announcement_totals_usd_billion": { "US": 500, "China": 433, "Gulf": 110, "Europe": 182.058, "Other": 3.65, "Total": 1228.708 }, "user_data_or_recheck_rows": [ "Nationwide AI data-center buildout plan", "Saudi HUMAIN / PIF AI program", "UAE G42 fund", "EU GenAI4EU" ] }, "pass_rate_short": "97%", "total_events": 141, "total_claims": 70, "total_claim_checks": 26, "total_arcs": 20, "total_edges": 257, "total_thesis_nodes": 5, "source_count": 202, "by_status": { "verified": 70, "verified_as_reported": 29, "partially_verified": 21, "verified_preprint": 8, "reported_unconfirmed": 3, "partially_verified_contested": 2, "verified_as_announcement": 2, "verified_as_reported_indictment_allegation": 2, "disputed_capability_claim": 1, "disputed_specific_claim_valid_general_mechanism": 1, "verified_as_reported_not_primary_order": 1, "verified_as_speech_not_as_fact": 1 }, "by_confidence": { "B": 72, "A": 47, "C": 19, "B/C": 1, "D": 1, "D_for_capability_claim_B_for_speech_event": 1 }, "years": [ 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 ] }, "events": [ { "id": "SIG_US_2022_BIS_ADVANCED_COMPUTING", "kind": "event", "title": "BIS launches advanced-computing and semiconductor-manufacturing controls on China", "date": "2022-10-07", "source_date": "2022-10-07", "year": 2022, "url": "https://www.bis.gov/", "source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security", "source_type_raw": "government", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "U.S. Department of Commerce / BIS", "actors": [ "U.S. Department of Commerce / BIS" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "US", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Export controls convert AI compute and semiconductor supply chains into geopolitical chokepoints.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "Export controls convert AI compute and semiconductor supply chains into geopolitical chokepoints.", "notes": "Baseline event for the export-control chronology.", "corroboration_needed": "Add Federal Register text and exact ECCN changes in final legal appendix.", "caveat": "Add Federal Register text and exact ECCN changes in final legal appendix.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security", "name": "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security", "url": "https://www.bis.gov/", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2022-10-07", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_001", "EDGE_2022_2023_001", "EDGE_2022_2023_002" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE", "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "sets_up", "produces_workaround" ] }, { "id": "SIG_US_2024_BIS_HBM_ENTITY_LIST", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. expands chip restrictions to HBM, manufacturing equipment/software, and 140 China-linked entities", "date": "2024-12-02", "source_date": "2024-12-02", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-targets-chinas-chip-industry-with-new-restrictions-2024-12-02/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. Department of Commerce / BIS", "actors": [ "U.S. Department of Commerce / BIS" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "US", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "The control regime widens from GPUs to the wider semiconductor production stack.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "The control regime widens from GPUs to the wider semiconductor production stack.", "notes": "Use as control-stack broadening: HBM, equipment, software, FDPR and Entity List.", "corroboration_needed": "Attach primary BIS rule/Federal Register notice for final publication.", "caveat": "Attach primary BIS rule/Federal Register notice for final publication.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "entities_added": 140 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-targets-chinas-chip-industry-with-new-restrictions-2024-12-02/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2024-12-02", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_013" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE", "kind": "event", "title": "AI Diffusion Rule creates explicit country tiers for AI chip access", "date": "2025-01-13", "source_date": "2025-01-13", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-tightens-its-grip-ai-chip-flows-across-globe-2025-01-13/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. government", "actors": [ "U.S. government" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "The AI stack creates formalized geopolitical tiers of access.", "claim_challenged": "The exact tier architecture is unstable and later partially reversed.", "summary": "The AI stack creates formalized geopolitical tiers of access.", "notes": "Use as evidence for tiering, not as a settled permanent regime.", "corroboration_needed": "Final legal summary must incorporate May 2025 rescission/non-enforcement and March 2026 draft withdrawal.", "caveat": "The exact tier architecture is unstable and later partially reversed.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "tiers": 3 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-tightens-its-grip-ai-chip-flows-across-globe-2025-01-13/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-01-13", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_001", "EDGE_EXPORT_002", "EDGE_EXPORT_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_006" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "sets_up", "walks_back", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_US_2026_AI_DIFFUSION_REPLACEMENT_WITHDRAWN", "kind": "event", "title": "Commerce withdraws planned replacement rule for AI chip exports", "date": "2026-03-13", "source_date": "2026-03-13", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-commerce-department-withdraws-planned-rule-ai-chip-exports-government-website-2026-03-13/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. Department of Commerce", "actors": [ "U.S. Department of Commerce" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Export-control architecture is dynamic and contested.", "claim_challenged": "A static three-tier world system cannot be stated without qualification.", "summary": "Export-control architecture is dynamic and contested.", "notes": "Important reviewer-proofing signal.", "corroboration_needed": "Track any successor rule after March 2026.", "caveat": "A static three-tier world system cannot be stated without qualification.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-commerce-department-withdraws-planned-rule-ai-chip-exports-government-website-2026-03-13/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-03-13", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_002", "EDGE_EXPORT_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_007" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "walks_back", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "kind": "event", "title": "BIS clarifies D:5/Macau-headquartered entities abroad still need licenses for advanced computing items", "date": "2026-05-31", "source_date": "2026-05-31", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.bis.gov/media/documents/bis-guidance-may-31-2026.pdf", "source_name": "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security", "source_type_raw": "government_guidance_pdf", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "BIS", "actors": [ "BIS" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global", "China", "Macau" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Control follows headquarters/ultimate parentage, not only physical destination.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "Control follows headquarters/ultimate parentage, not only physical destination.", "notes": "Strong evidence for extraterritorial or ownership-based control logic.", "corroboration_needed": "Add examples of enforcement or denied licenses if available.", "caveat": "Add examples of enforcement or denied licenses if available.", "exact_quote_short": "license is required to export advanced computing items to entities headquartered in Country Group D:5 or Macau", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security", "name": "U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security", "url": "https://www.bis.gov/media/documents/bis-guidance-may-31-2026.pdf", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2026-05-31", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_005", "EDGE_LEAK_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_008", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_014", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_070" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "mitigates" ] }, { "id": "SIG_NVIDIA_2025_H20_CHARGE", "kind": "event", "title": "Nvidia expects up to $5.5B charge after U.S. licensing requirement on H20 sales to China", "date": "2025-04-15", "source_date": "2025-04-15", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-expects-up-55-billion-charge-first-quarter-2025-04-15/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Nvidia / U.S. Commerce Department", "actors": [ "Nvidia / U.S. Commerce Department" ], "actor_facets": [ "Nvidia", "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "US", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "finance", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "finance", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "State export controls turn private chip sales into geopolitical and financial leverage.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "State export controls turn private chip sales into geopolitical and financial leverage.", "notes": "Clean slide fact for weaponized interdependence.", "corroboration_needed": "Add Nvidia 10-Q/8-K if used as slide number.", "caveat": "Add Nvidia 10-Q/8-K if used as slide number.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "charge_usd": 5500000000 }, "money_status": "corporate_financial_charge_expected", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-expects-up-55-billion-charge-first-quarter-2025-04-15/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-04-15", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_TOLL_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_012" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE", "kind": "event", "title": "Microsoft-G42 deal viewed positively by White House because G42 cut Huawei ties", "date": "2024-06-24", "source_date": "2024-06-24", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-g42-deal-positive-because-it-cut-huawei-ties-white-house-official-says-2024-06-24/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Microsoft, G42, White House", "actors": [ "Microsoft, G42, White House" ], "actor_facets": [ "G42", "Microsoft", "US" ], "geography": [ "UAE", "US", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "governance_law", "data_telemetry" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "governance_law", "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Access to frontier AI/cloud can be conditioned on geopolitical alignment and supply-chain assurance.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "Access to frontier AI/cloud can be conditioned on geopolitical alignment and supply-chain assurance.", "notes": "Core case for Gulf protectorate / conditional access.", "corroboration_needed": "Add Microsoft/G42 contract terms if public.", "caveat": "Add Microsoft/G42 contract terms if public.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "microsoft_investment_usd": 1500000000 }, "money_status": "corporate_investment_announced", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-g42-deal-positive-because-it-cut-huawei-ties-white-house-official-says-2024-06-24/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2024-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_GULF_001", "EDGE_GULF_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_009" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "sets_up" ] }, { "id": "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "kind": "event", "title": "Stargate UAE AI datacenter to begin operation in 2026, with broader 5GW plan", "date": "2025-05-22", "source_date": "2025-05-22", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/stargate-uae-ai-datacenter-begin-operation-2026-2025-05-22/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "G42, OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco, SoftBank, U.S. Commerce Department", "actors": [ "G42, OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco, SoftBank, U.S. Commerce Department" ], "actor_facets": [ "Cisco", "Financial regulators / banks", "G42", "Nvidia", "OpenAI", "Oracle", "SoftBank", "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "UAE", "US", "Japan" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "security", "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "security", "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Gulf sovereign AI buildout depends on U.S.-anchored frontier stack and compliance oversight.", "claim_challenged": "This is not full-stack sovereignty if compute, chips and models remain externally governed.", "summary": "Gulf sovereign AI buildout depends on U.S.-anchored frontier stack and compliance oversight.", "notes": "Use 'planned capacity' language.", "corroboration_needed": "Track actual GPU delivery, operational MW and compliance working-group outputs.", "caveat": "This is not full-stack sovereignty if compute, chips and models remain externally governed.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "initial_capacity_mw": 200, "planned_complex_capacity_gw": 5 }, "money_status": "capacity_announced_not_fully_deployed", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/stargate-uae-ai-datacenter-begin-operation-2026-2025-05-22/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-05-22", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_GULF_002", "EDGE_GULF_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_010" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "sets_up", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI", "kind": "event", "title": "Saudi HUMAIN invested $3B in xAI Series E; xAI/HUMAIN plan 500MW AI data-center infrastructure", "date": "2026-02-18", "source_date": "2026-02-18", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudis-humain-invested-3-billion-xais-series-e-funding-round-2026-02-18/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "HUMAIN, xAI", "actors": [ "HUMAIN, xAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "HUMAIN", "Saudi Arabia", "xAI" ], "geography": [ "Saudi Arabia", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "Gulf states are buying influence and access into frontier AI infrastructure.", "claim_challenged": "Equity participation and datacenter plans do not equal full-stack sovereignty.", "summary": "Gulf states are buying influence and access into frontier AI infrastructure.", "notes": "Country-card evidence for Gulf sovereign buyer tier.", "corroboration_needed": "Add official HUMAIN/xAI announcement if available.", "caveat": "Equity participation and datacenter plans do not equal full-stack sovereignty.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "investment_usd": 3000000000, "planned_capacity_mw": 500 }, "money_status": "investment_reported_and_capacity_plan_announced", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudis-humain-invested-3-billion-xais-series-e-funding-round-2026-02-18/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-02-18", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_GULF_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_011" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_EU_2025_INVESTAI_GIGAFACTORIES", "kind": "event", "title": "EU InvestAI / AI gigafactory push seeks to narrow frontier-compute gap", "date": "2025-02-11", "source_date": "2025-04-09/2025-06-30", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/09/eu-to-build-ai-gigafactories-20bn-push-catch-up-us-china", "source_name": "The Guardian / Reuters", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "European Commission", "actors": [ "European Commission" ], "actor_facets": [ "EU" ], "geography": [ "EU" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Europe is using public-private industrial policy to build compute capacity.", "claim_challenged": "Bids and policy commitments are not yet operating frontier capacity.", "summary": "Europe is using public-private industrial policy to build compute capacity.", "notes": "Use for EU semi-periphery with public compute.", "corroboration_needed": "Add European Commission primary pages, EuroHPC allocations, and deployment status.", "caveat": "Bids and policy commitments are not yet operating frontier capacity.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "eu_gigafactory_push_eur": 20000000000, "bids_reported": 76 }, "money_status": "pledge_policy_push", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "The Guardian / Reuters", "name": "The Guardian / Reuters", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/apr/09/eu-to-build-ai-gigafactories-20bn-push-catch-up-us-china", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-04-09/2025-06-30", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_015" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_EU_2026_AWS_AZURE_DMA_GATEKEEPERS", "kind": "event", "title": "EU preliminarily concludes AWS and Azure should fall under DMA gatekeeper rules", "date": "2026-06-25", "source_date": "2026-06-25", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-microsoft-cloud-computing-services-should-fall-under-eu-tech-rules-eu-2026-06-25/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "European Commission, AWS, Microsoft Azure", "actors": [ "European Commission, AWS, Microsoft Azure" ], "actor_facets": [ "Amazon / AWS", "EU", "Microsoft" ], "geography": [ "EU", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Cloud concentration is an AI-stack dependency and governance problem.", "claim_challenged": "Final regulatory status and remedies are not yet settled.", "summary": "Cloud concentration is an AI-stack dependency and governance problem.", "notes": "Strong EU semi-periphery / cloud sovereignty signal.", "corroboration_needed": "Track final DMA designation and remedy details.", "caveat": "Final regulatory status and remedies are not yet settled.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-microsoft-cloud-computing-services-should-fall-under-eu-tech-rules-eu-2026-06-25/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-25", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_016" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_EU_2026_PAX_SILICA", "kind": "event", "title": "EU joins U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative on AI and chip supply-chain security", "date": "2026-06-25", "source_date": "2026-06-25", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-joins-us-led-pax-silica-securing-ai-chip-supply-chains-2026-06-25/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "European Commission, U.S. State Department", "actors": [ "European Commission, U.S. State Department" ], "actor_facets": [ "EU", "US" ], "geography": [ "EU", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Trusted AI/chip supply-chain blocs are forming around the stack.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "Trusted AI/chip supply-chain blocs are forming around the stack.", "notes": "Useful for bloc formation / supply-chain alignment.", "corroboration_needed": "Add declaration text and member list.", "caveat": "Add declaration text and member list.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-joins-us-led-pax-silica-securing-ai-chip-supply-chains-2026-06-25/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-25", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_017" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_CHINA_2025_ALIBABA_380B_AI_CLOUD", "kind": "event", "title": "Alibaba plans 380B yuan investment in AI and cloud infrastructure over three years", "date": "2025-02-24", "source_date": "2025-02-24", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/alibaba-invest-more-than-52-billion-ai-over-next-3-years-2025-02-24/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Alibaba", "actors": [ "Alibaba" ], "actor_facets": [ "Alibaba" ], "geography": [ "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "China's counter-stack continues to scale capital expenditure despite controls.", "claim_challenged": "Announced investment is not the same as deployed frontier capacity.", "summary": "China's counter-stack continues to scale capital expenditure despite controls.", "notes": "Use as counter-core evidence.", "corroboration_needed": "Add Alibaba filing/earnings-call transcript.", "caveat": "Announced investment is not the same as deployed frontier capacity.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "investment_cny": 380000000000, "investment_usd_reported": 52440000000, "period_years": 3 }, "money_status": "announced_investment_plan", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/alibaba-invest-more-than-52-billion-ai-over-next-3-years-2025-02-24/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-02-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_003" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_CHINA_2026_AI_POWER_GRID_HURDLES", "kind": "event", "title": "China's push for green power use in AI data centers faces grid and load hurdles", "date": "2026-06-22", "source_date": "2026-06-22", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-push-green-power-use-ai-projects-faces-hurdles-experts-say-2026-06-22/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Chinese AI/data-center sector", "actors": [ "Chinese AI/data-center sector" ], "actor_facets": [ "China" ], "geography": [ "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "AI-stack power starts below chips: energy and grid constraints become strategic bottlenecks.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "AI-stack power starts below chips: energy and grid constraints become strategic bottlenecks.", "notes": "Good fact for 'compute is energy policy'.", "corroboration_needed": "Add official Chinese energy/data-center policy documents.", "caveat": "Add official Chinese energy/data-center policy documents.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "renewables_target_share_2030": 0.8, "reported_share_2023": 0.11, "projected_extra_demand_kwh_2030_min": 300000000000, "projected_extra_demand_kwh_2030_max": 500000000000 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-push-green-power-use-ai-projects-faces-hurdles-experts-say-2026-06-22/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-22", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_INDIA_2026_AMAZON_13B_CLOUD_AI", "kind": "event", "title": "Amazon announces additional $13B investment in India AI/cloud infrastructure by 2030", "date": "2026-06-25", "source_date": "2026-06-25", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/india/amazon-invest-additional-13-billion-india-2026-06-25/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Amazon / AWS, Government of India", "actors": [ "Amazon / AWS, Government of India" ], "actor_facets": [ "Amazon / AWS", "India" ], "geography": [ "India", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "India's AI infrastructure growth is materially mediated by foreign hyperscalers.", "claim_challenged": "Foreign cloud investment is not the same as domestic sovereign stack control.", "summary": "India's AI infrastructure growth is materially mediated by foreign hyperscalers.", "notes": "Country-card evidence for managed dependence.", "corroboration_needed": "Add IndiaAI Mission official compute numbers and domestic procurement data.", "caveat": "Foreign cloud investment is not the same as domestic sovereign stack control.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "additional_investment_usd": 13000000000, "total_planned_investment_usd": 48000000000, "target_year": 2030 }, "money_status": "announced_investment_plan", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/india/amazon-invest-additional-13-billion-india-2026-06-25/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-25", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_004" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_JAPAN_2026_BLACKSTONE_30B_AI_DC", "kind": "event", "title": "Blackstone plans $30B investment in Japan AI data centers, reportedly over 1GW", "date": "2026-06-23", "source_date": "2026-06-23", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/blackstone-plans-30-billion-investment-japan-ai-data-centres-nikkei-reports-2026-06-23/", "source_name": "Reuters / Nikkei", "source_type_raw": "wire_reporting_on_interview", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Blackstone", "actors": [ "Blackstone" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "Japan", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1" ], "claim_supported": "AI infrastructure buildout is spreading through global data-center capital markets.", "claim_challenged": "Private DC investment does not by itself prove sovereign control.", "summary": "AI infrastructure buildout is spreading through global data-center capital markets.", "notes": "Good for finance-rent layer.", "corroboration_needed": "Need Blackstone primary confirmation and site details.", "caveat": "Private DC investment does not by itself prove sovereign control.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "planned_investment_usd": 30000000000, "reported_capacity_gw_gt": 1 }, "money_status": "planned_investment_reported", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Nikkei", "name": "Reuters / Nikkei", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/blackstone-plans-30-billion-investment-japan-ai-data-centres-nikkei-reports-2026-06-23/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-23", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_005" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_RUSSIA_2026_FOREIGN_AI_RESTRICTIONS", "kind": "event", "title": "Russia proposes sweeping powers to ban or restrict foreign AI tools", "date": "2026-03-20", "source_date": "2026-03-20", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-give-itself-sweeping-powers-ban-or-restrict-foreign-ai-tools-2026-03-20/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Russian Ministry for Digital Development / Russian government", "actors": [ "Russian Ministry for Digital Development / Russian government" ], "actor_facets": [ "Russia" ], "geography": [ "Russia" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Russia is moving toward isolated/autarkic AI governance and data localization.", "claim_challenged": "Localization and bans are not evidence of frontier-stack parity.", "summary": "Russia is moving toward isolated/autarkic AI governance and data localization.", "notes": "Strong country-card item, weak on actual compute capacity.", "corroboration_needed": "Add Russian draft law text and status.", "caveat": "Localization and bans are not evidence of frontier-stack parity.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "daily_user_threshold_for_rules": 500000, "local_storage_years": 3 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-give-itself-sweeping-powers-ban-or-restrict-foreign-ai-tools-2026-03-20/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_RUSSIA_2024_NEBIUS_1B_AI_INFRA", "kind": "event", "title": "Post-Yandex Nebius plans over $1B AI infrastructure investment in Europe", "date": "2024-09-25", "source_date": "2024-09-25", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/split-russias-yandex-nebius-plans-1-billion-ai-infrastructure-investment-2024-09-25/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Nebius Group", "actors": [ "Nebius Group" ], "actor_facets": [ "Nebius", "US" ], "geography": [ "Netherlands", "EU", "Russia-linked" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Some Russian-origin AI infrastructure exits Russia and reconnects to Western GPU/cloud stack after corporate divorce.", "claim_challenged": "Nebius should not be coded as Russian sovereign capability after split.", "summary": "Some Russian-origin AI infrastructure exits Russia and reconnects to Western GPU/cloud stack after corporate divorce.", "notes": "Important caution for Russia case study.", "corroboration_needed": "Add corporate filings and sanctions-status details.", "caveat": "Nebius should not be coded as Russian sovereign capability after split.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "planned_investment_usd_gt": 1000000000 }, "money_status": "announced_investment_plan", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/split-russias-yandex-nebius-plans-1-billion-ai-infrastructure-investment-2024-09-25/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2024-09-25", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_CYBER_2025_AIXCC_FINAL", "kind": "event", "title": "AIxCC finalists found 77% of injected bugs, patched 61%, and found 18 real-world vulnerabilities", "date": "2025-08-08", "source_date": "2025-08", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-of-cybersecurity-thought-bubble-04e655f0-73be-11f0-9251-67d188444922", "source_name": "Axios", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "DARPA, AIxCC finalist teams", "actors": [ "DARPA, AIxCC finalist teams" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "Automated vulnerability discovery and patching is advancing materially.", "claim_challenged": "Does not prove autonomous offensive exploitation at strategic scale.", "summary": "Automated vulnerability discovery and patching is advancing materially.", "notes": "Cyber pack: verified competition/benchmark evidence.", "corroboration_needed": "Add DARPA primary post and competition technical report if published.", "caveat": "Does not prove autonomous offensive exploitation at strategic scale.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "injected_bugs": 70, "found_share": 0.77, "patched_share": 0.61, "real_world_vulnerabilities_found": 18, "avg_patch_time_minutes": 45 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Axios", "name": "Axios", "url": "https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-of-cybersecurity-thought-bubble-04e655f0-73be-11f0-9251-67d188444922", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-08", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_018" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_CYBER_2026_OSS_CRS", "kind": "event", "title": "OSS-CRS ports AIxCC CRS techniques to real-world open-source projects", "date": "2026-03-09", "source_date": "2026-03-09", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08566", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Academic research team / OSS-CRS", "actors": [ "Academic research team / OSS-CRS" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "AIxCC-style cyber reasoning can transfer from competition systems to real OSS targets.", "claim_challenged": "Preprint and tool demonstration still need independent adoption evidence.", "summary": "AIxCC-style cyber reasoning can transfer from competition systems to real OSS targets.", "notes": "Cyber pack: peer/preprint research, not operational attack evidence.", "corroboration_needed": "Peer review, independent replication, and CVE/patch trail.", "caveat": "Preprint and tool demonstration still need independent adoption evidence.", "exact_quote_short": "discovered 10 previously unknown bugs", "numbers": { "unknown_bugs_found": 10, "high_severity_bugs": 3, "oss_fuzz_projects": 8 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08566", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-09", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_019" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_COG_2026_INDIRECT_PROMPT_INJECTION_WILD", "kind": "event", "title": "Large-scale study finds indirect prompt injections in the wild across 1.2B URLs", "date": "2026-04-29", "source_date": "2026-04-29", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27202", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Academic research team", "actors": [ "Academic research team" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "External web data can become a machine-facing influence channel for AI agents/RAG systems.", "claim_challenged": "Mechanism/prevalence evidence is stronger than evidence of strategic state exploitation.", "summary": "External web data can become a machine-facing influence channel for AI agents/RAG systems.", "notes": "Cognitive security pack: strong mechanism evidence.", "corroboration_needed": "Enterprise/government incident examples.", "caveat": "Mechanism/prevalence evidence is stronger than evidence of strategic state exploitation.", "exact_quote_short": "15.3K validated instances across 11.7K pages", "numbers": { "urls_analyzed": 1200000000, "hosts_analyzed": 24800000, "validated_instances": 15300, "pages_with_instances": 11700, "non_rendered_html_share": 0.7, "controlled_experiments": 5200 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27202", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-29", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_020" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_COG_2026_RESUME_PROMPT_INJECTION", "kind": "event", "title": "Real-world resume-screening study finds hidden prompt injections in about 1% of resumes", "date": "2026-05-27", "source_date": "2026-05-27", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28999", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Academic research team / hireEZ dataset", "actors": [ "Academic research team / hireEZ dataset" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Prompt injection has moved from conceptual risk into observed AI-mediated evaluation workflows.", "claim_challenged": "Resume-screening evidence should not be generalized to all government or enterprise decision-support without additional cases.", "summary": "Prompt injection has moved from conceptual risk into observed AI-mediated evaluation workflows.", "notes": "Good example of knowledge-structure capture.", "corroboration_needed": "Hiring-platform incident reports and mitigations.", "caveat": "Resume-screening evidence should not be generalized to all government or enterprise decision-support without additional cases.", "exact_quote_short": "approximately 1% of resumes contain hidden prompt injections", "numbers": { "resumes_analyzed_approx": 200000, "hidden_prompt_injection_share_approx": 0.01, "non_explicit_instruction_share_gt": 0.9 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28999", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-05-27", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_021" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_COG_2026_AGENT_IPI_COMPETITION", "kind": "event", "title": "Public red-team competition finds frontier AI agents vulnerable to indirect prompt injection", "date": "2026-03-16", "source_date": "2026-03-16", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15714", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Academic / competition organizers", "actors": [ "Academic / competition organizers" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Agentic systems remain structurally vulnerable to hidden-instruction attacks.", "claim_challenged": "Competition environment is not a census of production systems.", "summary": "Agentic systems remain structurally vulnerable to hidden-instruction attacks.", "notes": "Use as mechanism/benchmark evidence.", "corroboration_needed": "Production incident evidence.", "caveat": "Competition environment is not a census of production systems.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "frontier_models_tested": 13, "attempts": 272000, "successful_attacks": 8648 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15714", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-16", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_022" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_AGENTS_2026_AGENT_INDEX", "kind": "event", "title": "AI Agent Index documents 30 deployed agentic AI systems and uneven transparency", "date": "2026-02-19", "source_date": "2026-02-19", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.17753", "source_name": "arXiv / AI Agent Index", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint_dataset", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "AI Agent Index authors", "actors": [ "AI Agent Index authors" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Agentic AI systems are deployed faster than documentation and safety transparency mature.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "Agentic AI systems are deployed faster than documentation and safety transparency mature.", "notes": "Background for decision-support/cognition layer.", "corroboration_needed": "Update with live index data before final publication.", "caveat": "Update with live index data before final publication.", "exact_quote_short": "documents information ... of 30 state-of-the-art AI agents", "numbers": { "deployed_agentic_systems_documented": 30 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv / AI Agent Index", "name": "arXiv / AI Agent Index", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.17753", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-02-19", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_023" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_PROJECT_GLASSWING_PREVIEW", "kind": "event", "title": "Anthropic Mythos / Project Glasswing becomes public as restricted cyber-vulnerability model program", "date": "2026-04-07", "source_date": "2026-04/2026-06", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/04/24/anthropic-mythos-ai-washington-cybersecurity-hacking-risk/", "source_name": "Washington Post / Wired / Reuters follow-on reporting", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Anthropic, Project Glasswing partners", "actors": [ "Anthropic, Project Glasswing partners" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic" ], "geography": [ "US", "Allies" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "A frontier model can be treated as a restricted cybersecurity capability rather than a general software product.", "claim_challenged": "Public details are mediated through press and partner reports; Anthropic primary materials were not located in this pass.", "summary": "A frontier model can be treated as a restricted cybersecurity capability rather than a general software product.", "notes": "Use as model-layer chokepoint signal, not as proof of all Mythos capability claims.", "corroboration_needed": "Locate official Anthropic Project Glasswing statement, participant list and access terms.", "caveat": "Public details are mediated through press and partner reports; Anthropic primary materials were not located in this pass.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Washington Post / Wired / Reuters follow-on reporting", "name": "Washington Post / Wired / Reuters follow-on reporting", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/04/24/anthropic-mythos-ai-washington-cybersecurity-hacking-risk/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-04/2026-06", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271", "kind": "event", "title": "Mozilla reports Mythos-assisted discovery/fixing of 271 Firefox security vulnerabilities", "date": "2026-04-21", "source_date": "2026-04/2026-05", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/mozilla-used-anthropics-mythos-to-find-271-bugs-in-firefox", "source_name": "Wired / Business Insider", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Mozilla, Anthropic", "actors": [ "Mozilla, Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "Mozilla" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "AI-assisted vulnerability discovery can materially increase defender-side remediation throughput in real software.", "claim_challenged": "Partner-reported result; not a public reproducible benchmark and not proof of autonomous offense.", "summary": "AI-assisted vulnerability discovery can materially increase defender-side remediation throughput in real software.", "notes": "Defender evidence. Do not include exploit details.", "corroboration_needed": "Locate Mozilla primary blog/advisory and map bugs to CVE/security advisories.", "caveat": "Partner-reported result; not a public reproducible benchmark and not proof of autonomous offense.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "security_bugs_directly_credited_to_mythos": 271, "total_security_issues_reported_by_BI": 423 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Wired / Business Insider", "name": "Wired / Business Insider", "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/mozilla-used-anthropics-mythos-to-find-271-bugs-in-firefox", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-04/2026-05", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_027" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_but_limits", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_CLASSIFIED_SYSTEMS_TEST", "kind": "event", "title": "AP/Reuters: Mythos found vulnerabilities in classified U.S. government systems during controlled testing", "date": "2026-06-24", "source_date": "2026-06-24", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropics-mythos-model-found-vulnerabilities-classified-us-government-systems-2026-06-24/", "source_name": "Reuters reporting AP", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Anthropic, NSA/Cyber Command, U.S. government", "actors": [ "Anthropic, NSA/Cyber Command, U.S. government" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "Government concern about cyber-capable frontier models is tied to tested performance against sensitive systems.", "claim_challenged": "Reporting distinguishes vulnerability identification from exploit execution; system details remain classified.", "summary": "Government concern about cyber-capable frontier models is tied to tested performance against sensitive systems.", "notes": "Strong narrative fact, weak technical granularity.", "corroboration_needed": "Congressional hearing transcript, official NSA/Cyber Command statement, or declassified test methodology.", "caveat": "Reporting distinguishes vulnerability identification from exploit execution; system details remain classified.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters reporting AP", "name": "Reuters reporting AP", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropics-mythos-model-found-vulnerabilities-classified-us-government-systems-2026-06-24/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_028" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_US_MODEL_EXPORT_CONTROL_ANTHROPIC_JUNE12", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. order reportedly forces Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 access globally", "date": "2026-06-12", "source_date": "2026-06-13/2026-06-27", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-close-allowing-anthropic-restore-fable-5-model-axios-reports-2026-06-27/", "source_name": "Reuters / Axios / Business Insider", "source_type_raw": "wire_and_major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. government, Anthropic", "actors": [ "U.S. government, Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "US" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "The model artifact/service layer itself is becoming an object of export control, not just chips and cloud.", "claim_challenged": "Underlying government order not located as public primary document; details may change.", "summary": "The model artifact/service layer itself is becoming an object of export control, not just chips and cloud.", "notes": "This is the key new signal for 'AI-stack as structural power' at the model layer.", "corroboration_needed": "Public order, license text, or Commerce Department notice.", "caveat": "Underlying government order not located as public primary document; details may change.", "exact_quote_short": "disabled its most advanced AI models - Mythos 5 and Fable 5 - for all users after the government's June 12 export control order", "numbers": { "disabled_models": 2 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported_not_primary_order", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Axios / Business Insider", "name": "Reuters / Axios / Business Insider", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-close-allowing-anthropic-restore-fable-5-model-axios-reports-2026-06-27/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-13/2026-06-27", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_024" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LIMITED_RESTORE_TRUSTED_US_ORGS", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. allows limited redeployment of Claude Mythos 5 to trusted U.S. critical-infrastructure organizations", "date": "2026-06-26", "source_date": "2026-06-26/2026-06-27", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-releases-anthropic-model-mythos-some-us-companies-semafor-reports-2026-06-26/", "source_name": "Reuters / Business Insider / Axios", "source_type_raw": "wire_and_major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. government, Anthropic, critical infrastructure organizations", "actors": [ "U.S. government, Anthropic, critical infrastructure organizations" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "Access to frontier cyber models is tiered by trust status and critical-infrastructure role.", "claim_challenged": "Exact approved organization list and license terms not public.", "summary": "Access to frontier cyber models is tiered by trust status and critical-infrastructure role.", "notes": "Turns 'trusted users' into a governance category.", "corroboration_needed": "Official license terms and list criteria.", "caveat": "Exact approved organization list and license terms not public.", "exact_quote_short": "redeploy ... to over 100 'trusted' U.S. organizations", "numbers": { "trusted_organizations_reported_gt": 100 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Business Insider / Axios", "name": "Reuters / Business Insider / Axios", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-releases-anthropic-model-mythos-some-us-companies-semafor-reports-2026-06-26/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-26/2026-06-27", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_025" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_FABLE5_RETURN_REPORTED", "kind": "event", "title": "Reuters/Axios: U.S. close to allowing Anthropic to restore Fable 5 access", "date": "2026-06-27", "source_date": "2026-06-27", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-close-allowing-anthropic-restore-fable-5-model-axios-reports-2026-06-27/", "source_name": "Reuters reporting Axios", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. government, Anthropic", "actors": [ "U.S. government, Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "US" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Model-level export controls are being negotiated dynamically rather than operating as a stable rulebook.", "claim_challenged": "Reuters could not independently confirm Axios' report at publication time.", "summary": "Model-level export controls are being negotiated dynamically rather than operating as a stable rulebook.", "notes": "Use in timeline as weak/soft signal, not settled fact.", "corroboration_needed": "Anthropic/Commerce update confirming restoration.", "caveat": "Reuters could not independently confirm Axios' report at publication time.", "exact_quote_short": "Reuters could not immediately confirm the report", "numbers": { "offline_days_reported": 15 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "reported_unconfirmed", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters reporting Axios", "name": "Reuters reporting Axios", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-close-allowing-anthropic-restore-fable-5-model-axios-reports-2026-06-27/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-27", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_STAGED_RELEASE", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI defers public rollout of GPT-5.6 and begins limited preview at U.S. government request", "date": "2026-06-26", "source_date": "2026-06-26", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-defers-public-rollout-gpt56-us-seeks-early-access-frontier-ai-models-2026-06-26/", "source_name": "Reuters / Business Insider / Guardian", "source_type_raw": "wire_and_major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "OpenAI, U.S. government", "actors": [ "OpenAI, U.S. government" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI", "US" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Government pre-release access and vetted rollout are becoming a model-governance mechanism for frontier AI.", "claim_challenged": "OpenAI describes the limitation as temporary and undesirable as a long-term default.", "summary": "Government pre-release access and vetted rollout are becoming a model-governance mechanism for frontier AI.", "notes": "Generalizes beyond Anthropic: model governance regime is broader than Mythos.", "corroboration_needed": "OpenAI primary blog post and EO text.", "caveat": "OpenAI describes the limitation as temporary and undesirable as a long-term default.", "exact_quote_short": "limiting the AI model's initial access to a small group of vetted partners", "numbers": { "models_in_series": 3 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Business Insider / Guardian", "name": "Reuters / Business Insider / Guardian", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-defers-public-rollout-gpt56-us-seeks-early-access-frontier-ai-models-2026-06-26/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_026" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL", "kind": "event", "title": "Qihoo 360 unveils Yitian Tulong: Tulongfeng vulnerability agent and Yitianzhen automated defense system", "date": "2026-06-24", "source_date": "2026-06-24/2026-06-25", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/chinas-360-says-it-has-developed-tools-match-anthropics-mythos-2026-06-24/", "source_name": "Reuters; Habr transcript of Zhou Hongyi speech", "source_type_raw": "wire_plus_translated_transcript", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "360 Security Technology, Zhou Hongyi", "actors": [ "360 Security Technology, Zhou Hongyi" ], "actor_facets": [ "360 Security", "China" ], "geography": [ "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights", "data_telemetry" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights", "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ4", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "China's counter-stack response may route around weaker base models/chips via agent harness, security data and workflow integration.", "claim_challenged": "Capability claims are vendor assertions; Reuters could not independently verify vulnerability counts.", "summary": "China's counter-stack response may route around weaker base models/chips via agent harness, security data and workflow integration.", "notes": "Do not code as verified Mythos-equivalent capability.", "corroboration_needed": "Chinese regulator confirmations, vulnerability IDs, Microsoft/other acknowledgements, independent benchmark.", "caveat": "Capability claims are vendor assertions; Reuters could not independently verify vulnerability counts.", "exact_quote_short": "Reuters could not independently verify the claims", "numbers": { "claimed_vulnerabilities_reuters": 3432, "claimed_china_authority_confirmed": 105, "domestic_model_gap_claim_min": 0.2, "domestic_model_gap_claim_max": 0.3 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "D_for_capability_claim_B_for_speech_event", "evidence_level": "D_for_capability_claim_B_for_speech_event", "status": "disputed_capability_claim", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters; Habr transcript of Zhou Hongyi speech", "name": "Reuters; Habr transcript of Zhou Hongyi speech", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/chinas-360-says-it-has-developed-tools-match-anthropics-mythos-2026-06-24/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-24/2026-06-25", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_030", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_032" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_as_claim_not_fact", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_360_ZHOU_HABR_STRATEGIC_SPEECH", "kind": "event", "title": "Zhou Hongyi frames vulnerability-finding AI as strategic deterrence and one-way-transparency problem", "date": "2026-06-24", "source_date": "2026-06-24", "year": 2026, "url": "https://habr.com/ru/articles/1051512/", "source_name": "Habr translated transcript of ISC.AI 2026 keynote", "source_type_raw": "translated_transcript_digest", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Zhou Hongyi / 360", "actors": [ "Zhou Hongyi / 360" ], "actor_facets": [ "360 Security", "China" ], "geography": [ "China", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ4", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Chinese cyber leadership is explicitly interpreting Mythos-like systems as strategic capability and deterrence, not just product competition.", "claim_challenged": "Transcript is reconstructed/translated; many figures are unverified speech claims.", "summary": "Chinese cyber leadership is explicitly interpreting Mythos-like systems as strategic capability and deterrence, not just product competition.", "notes": "Valuable as strategic narrative and actor perception even where facts are not verified.", "corroboration_needed": "Chinese original transcript/video, 360 slides, regulator database, partner acknowledgements.", "caveat": "Transcript is reconstructed/translated; many figures are unverified speech claims.", "exact_quote_short": "самый важный вопрос: кто обладает способностью непрерывно находить уязвимости?", "numbers": { "glasswing_countries_claimed": 15, "glasswing_orgs_claimed_gt": 200, "tokens_per_org_claimed_usd": 100000000, "360_apt_groups_identified_claimed_gt": 60, "vulnerabilities_reported_to_regulators_claimed": 250000, "cyberspace_mapping_data_claimed": 140000000000, "attack_samples_claimed": 38000000000, "malware_samples_claimed": 6000000000, "omar_ecosystem_vulnerabilities_claimed": 23 }, "money_status": "token_credit_claim_unverified", "confidence": "D", "evidence_level": "D", "status": "verified_as_speech_not_as_fact", "sources": [ { "title": "Habr translated transcript of ISC.AI 2026 keynote", "name": "Habr translated transcript of ISC.AI 2026 keynote", "url": "https://habr.com/ru/articles/1051512/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_031", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_033" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LINKED_REDISCOVERY_COUNTEREVIDENCE", "kind": "event", "title": "Benchmarking Mythos-linked bug rediscovery finds limited success under favorable target-file scaffolds", "date": "2026-05-17", "source_date": "2026-05-17", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17416", "source_name": "arXiv preprint", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Isaac David, Arthur Gervais", "actors": [ "Isaac David, Arthur Gervais" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Independent stress tests can challenge broad Mythos capability narratives.", "claim_challenged": "Simple prompting or target-file scaffolding does not reproduce a '0-day factory' at high reliability.", "summary": "Independent stress tests can challenge broad Mythos capability narratives.", "notes": "Must be used as caveat against overclaiming machine-speed 0-day.", "corroboration_needed": "Peer review, reproduction on more tasks, compare with actual Mythos workflow if disclosed.", "caveat": "Simple prompting or target-file scaffolding does not reproduce a '0-day factory' at high reliability.", "exact_quote_short": "These results do not refute Anthropic's undisclosed workflow", "numbers": { "total_attempts": 54, "tasks": 6, "models": 3, "gpt55_xhigh_successes": 5, "opus47_successes": 1, "kimi_k2_successes": 0 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv preprint", "name": "arXiv preprint", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.17416", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-05-17", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_029" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "walks_back", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_FABLE5_OPUS48_REDTEAM", "kind": "event", "title": "Red-team study finds Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 remain breakable under sustained automated jailbreak pressure", "date": "2026-06-16", "source_date": "2026-06-16", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.18193", "source_name": "arXiv preprint", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Nicola Franco", "actors": [ "Nicola Franco" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Even hardened frontier models may retain residual automated-jailbreak surfaces.", "claim_challenged": "Aggregate safety pass rates should not be interpreted as full containment.", "summary": "Even hardened frontier models may retain residual automated-jailbreak surfaces.", "notes": "Supports government-review logic, but do not conflate jailbreak completions with operational cyber exploitation.", "corroboration_needed": "Independent red-team replication and model-version confirmation.", "caveat": "Aggregate safety pass rates should not be interpreted as full containment.", "exact_quote_short": "frontier models remain reliably breakable under sustained automated pressure", "numbers": { "harmful_intents": 7826, "fable5_confirmed_harmful_completions": 702, "opus48_confirmed_harmful_completions": 1620, "fable5_worst_case_break_rate": 0.061, "opus48_worst_case_break_rate": 0.115 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv preprint", "name": "arXiv preprint", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.18193", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-06-16", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_SANDBOX_ESCAPE_UNVERIFIED", "kind": "event", "title": "Mythos sandbox-escape discussion framed as unverified but important containment-stack warning", "date": "2026-04-22", "source_date": "2026-04-22", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.20496", "source_name": "arXiv preprint", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Dominik Blain", "actors": [ "Dominik Blain" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Frontier-model safety depends on containment infrastructure, not only behavioral safeguards.", "claim_challenged": "Specific Mythos escape vector is not publicly characterized and must not be treated as verified.", "summary": "Frontier-model safety depends on containment infrastructure, not only behavioral safeguards.", "notes": "Use as gap/control discussion, not as established incident.", "corroboration_needed": "Public incident report or Anthropic technical note.", "caveat": "Specific Mythos escape vector is not publicly characterized and must not be treated as verified.", "exact_quote_short": "Anthropic has not publicly characterized the escape vector", "numbers": { "production_case_studies": 4 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "disputed_specific_claim_valid_general_mechanism", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv preprint", "name": "arXiv preprint", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.20496", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-22", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD", "kind": "event", "title": "Pentagon to adopt Palantir Maven AI as core U.S. military command-and-control system", "date": "2026-03-20", "source_date": "2026-03-20", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-adopt-palantir-ai-as-core-us-military-system-memo-says-2026-03-20/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. Department of Defense, Palantir", "actors": [ "U.S. Department of Defense, Palantir" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US", "Middle East", "Iran" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "AI is already embedded in command-and-control / targeting-support workflows rather than remaining a lab prototype.", "claim_challenged": "Palantir says human operators retain final control over lethal decisions.", "summary": "AI is already embedded in command-and-control / targeting-support workflows rather than remaining a lab prototype.", "notes": "Use as strong evidence for critical state/military dependency; do not claim autonomous lethal decision-making.", "corroboration_needed": "Public March 9 memo or DoD CDAO program-of-record documentation.", "caveat": "Palantir says human operators retain final control over lethal decisions.", "exact_quote_short": "core military command-and-control platform", "numbers": { "contract_ceiling_usd_reported_2025": 1300000000, "reported_users_approx": 25000 }, "money_status": "contract_ceiling_reported", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-adopt-palantir-ai-as-core-us-military-system-memo-says-2026-03-20/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_034", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_048" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "kind": "event", "title": "Google signs classified Pentagon AI deal for sensitive applications including mission planning and weapons targeting", "date": "2026-04-28", "source_date": "2026-04-28", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-signs-classified-ai-deal-with-pentagon-information-reports-2026-04-28/", "source_name": "Reuters reporting The Information", "source_type_raw": "wire_reporting_secondary", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Google, U.S. Department of Defense", "actors": [ "Google, U.S. Department of Defense" ], "actor_facets": [ "Google", "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Frontier AI providers are being integrated into classified defense decision workflows.", "claim_challenged": "Contract is classified; exact safeguards and operational uses are not publicly auditable.", "summary": "Frontier AI providers are being integrated into classified defense decision workflows.", "notes": "Good example of commercial model access inside classified government networks.", "corroboration_needed": "DoD contract notice and contractor statement.", "caveat": "Contract is classified; exact safeguards and operational uses are not publicly auditable.", "exact_quote_short": "mission planning and weapons targeting", "numbers": { "contract_ceiling_usd_each_reported": 200000000 }, "money_status": "contract_reported_up_to", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters reporting The Information", "name": "Reuters reporting The Information", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-signs-classified-ai-deal-with-pentagon-information-reports-2026-04-28/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-04-28", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_035", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_046", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_082" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PENTAGON_SEVEN_AI_COMPANIES_CLASSIFIED_NETWORKS", "kind": "event", "title": "Pentagon reaches classified-network AI agreements with seven major AI/tech firms, excluding Anthropic", "date": "2026-05-01", "source_date": "2026-05-01", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/pentagon-reaches-agreements-with-leading-ai-companies-2026-05-01/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. Department of Defense, SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, NVIDIA, Reflection AI, Microsoft, AWS", "actors": [ "U.S. Department of Defense, SpaceX, OpenAI, Google, NVIDIA, Reflection AI, Microsoft, AWS" ], "actor_facets": [ "Amazon / AWS", "Google", "Microsoft", "Nvidia", "OpenAI", "SpaceX", "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "Defense access to frontier AI is becoming multi-vendor, cloud-mediated and classified-network integrated.", "claim_challenged": "High-level agreement reporting does not show actual use cases, performance or oversight.", "summary": "Defense access to frontier AI is becoming multi-vendor, cloud-mediated and classified-network integrated.", "notes": "Supports the thesis that state decision stack becomes platformized.", "corroboration_needed": "Official DoD vendor list and agreement terms.", "caveat": "High-level agreement reporting does not show actual use cases, performance or oversight.", "exact_quote_short": "integrate their technologies into classified Defense Department networks", "numbers": { "vendors_reported": 7, "genai_mil_personnel_adoption_reported": 1300000, "integration_timeline_months_old": 18, "integration_timeline_months_new_lt": 3 }, "money_status": "classified_network_integration_agreements", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/pentagon-reaches-agreements-with-leading-ai-companies-2026-05-01/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-05-01", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_047" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DOMESTIC_AI_COMPUTE_MILITARY_DEMAND", "kind": "event", "title": "Ukraine plans domestic AI computing capacity; military described as largest AI consumer", "date": "2026-06-26", "source_date": "2026-06-26", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ukraine-plans-domestic-ai-computing-capacity-with-kyivstar-2026-06-26/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Ukraine Economy Ministry, Kyivstar, VEON, Nvidia, Google", "actors": [ "Ukraine Economy Ministry, Kyivstar, VEON, Nvidia, Google" ], "actor_facets": [ "Google", "Nvidia", "Ukraine" ], "geography": [ "Ukraine" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Wartime AI adoption creates sovereign compute/data-control demand; military consumption can drive national AI infrastructure.", "claim_challenged": "Capacity is planned and modest; not yet deployed.", "summary": "Wartime AI adoption creates sovereign compute/data-control demand; military consumption can drive national AI infrastructure.", "notes": "Strong bridge between war, AI adoption and sovereignty over compute/data.", "corroboration_needed": "Ukraine MoU text and deployment schedule.", "caveat": "Capacity is planned and modest; not yet deployed.", "exact_quote_short": "the military is currently the largest AI consumer in Ukraine", "numbers": { "phase_1_capacity_mw_min": 3, "phase_1_capacity_mw_max": 5, "investment_usd_order_of_magnitude": "tens_of_millions" }, "money_status": "planned_mou_not_deployed", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ukraine-plans-domestic-ai-computing-capacity-with-kyivstar-2026-06-26/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_WAR_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_077" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_ISRAEL_LAVENDER_GOSPEL_TARGETING", "kind": "event", "title": "Guardian/+972: Israel used Lavender and Gospel AI-assisted systems for target generation in Gaza", "date": "2024-04-03", "source_date": "2024-04-03", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/israel-gaza-ai-database-hamas-airstrikes", "source_name": "The Guardian / +972 Magazine / Local Call", "source_type_raw": "investigative_reporting", "source_type": "Investigative reporting", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_with_anonymous_sources", "actor": "Israel Defense Forces / Unit 8200", "actors": [ "Israel Defense Forces / Unit 8200" ], "actor_facets": [ "Israel" ], "geography": [ "Israel", "Gaza" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "AI-assisted target generation can become embedded in lethal military workflows and accountability controversies.", "claim_challenged": "Details rely on anonymous intelligence officers; IDF contested characterizations and described tools as auxiliary intelligence systems.", "summary": "AI-assisted target generation can become embedded in lethal military workflows and accountability controversies.", "notes": "Use only with reported/according-to language; do not present as adjudicated legal finding.", "corroboration_needed": "Primary IDF response, independent legal inquiry, operational documents if available.", "caveat": "Details rely on anonymous intelligence officers; IDF contested characterizations and described tools as auxiliary intelligence systems.", "exact_quote_short": "used AI to identify 37,000 Hamas targets", "numbers": { "lavender_potential_targets_reported": 37000 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B/C", "evidence_level": "B/C", "status": "partially_verified_contested", "sources": [ { "title": "The Guardian / +972 Magazine / Local Call", "name": "The Guardian / +972 Magazine / Local Call", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/israel-gaza-ai-database-hamas-airstrikes", "type": "Investigative reporting", "date": "2024-04-03", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_with_anonymous_sources" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_RBI_BANK_AI_RISK_GUIDELINES", "kind": "event", "title": "RBI proposes bank AI/ML risk-management guidelines requiring board-approved frameworks and human oversight", "date": "2026-06-24", "source_date": "2026-06-24", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/rbi-proposes-guidelines-banks-manage-ai-risks-2026-06-24/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_about_regulator_draft", "actor": "Reserve Bank of India, regulated banks", "actors": [ "Reserve Bank of India, regulated banks" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks", "India" ], "geography": [ "India" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Financial regulators treat AI/ML models as enterprise-level risk objects requiring validation, inventories and human oversight.", "claim_challenged": "Draft guidelines are not yet final rules.", "summary": "Financial regulators treat AI/ML models as enterprise-level risk objects requiring validation, inventories and human oversight.", "notes": "Finance critical-use evidence; includes third-party model controls and human oversight.", "corroboration_needed": "RBI draft circular primary text.", "caveat": "Draft guidelines are not yet final rules.", "exact_quote_short": "independent validation of all models", "numbers": { "public_feedback_deadline": "2026-07-24" }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/rbi-proposes-guidelines-banks-manage-ai-risks-2026-06-24/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_about_regulator_draft" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. bank regulators intensify scrutiny of AI use in lending, KYC and sanctions screening", "date": "2026-06-12", "source_date": "2026-06-12", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bank-regulators-ramp-up-scrutiny-ai-use-financial-companies-2026-06-12/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire_with_named_agencies_and_anonymous_sources", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "OCC, Federal Reserve, U.S. banks", "actors": [ "OCC, Federal Reserve, U.S. banks" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks", "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "finance_rent", "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "finance_rent", "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "AI is embedded in high-risk financial operations such as lending, KYC and sanctions screening, and regulators are probing guardrails, kill switches and vendor risk.", "claim_challenged": "Regulators are mostly gathering information and applying existing frameworks rather than imposing AI-specific rules.", "summary": "AI is embedded in high-risk financial operations such as lending, KYC and sanctions screening, and regulators are probing guardrails, kill switches and vendor risk.", "notes": "Very strong finance/critical-business evidence.", "corroboration_needed": "Formal RFI and supervisory guidance when published.", "caveat": "Regulators are mostly gathering information and applying existing frameworks rather than imposing AI-specific rules.", "exact_quote_short": "lending, know-your-customer checks and sanctions screening", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bank-regulators-ramp-up-scrutiny-ai-use-financial-companies-2026-06-12/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-12", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_FIN_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_036", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_079" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_JPMORGAN_AI_INVESTMENT_BANKING_AND_MYTHOS", "kind": "event", "title": "JPMorgan rolls out AI tools in investment banking globally and is among banks allowed or testing Mythos", "date": "2026-05-21", "source_date": "2026-05-21", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/jpmorgan-rolls-out-ai-tools-investment-banking-globally-senior-banker-says-2026-05-21/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Anthropic", "actors": [ "JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "Financial regulators / banks" ], "geography": [ "Global", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent", "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent", "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "AI is being deployed in revenue-critical investment-banking workflows and in bank cyber-defense evaluation.", "claim_challenged": "Specific productivity metrics and tools were not fully disclosed.", "summary": "AI is being deployed in revenue-critical investment-banking workflows and in bank cyber-defense evaluation.", "notes": "Business-critical adoption beyond back-office chatbots.", "corroboration_needed": "Bank disclosures, control frameworks and audit findings.", "caveat": "Specific productivity metrics and tools were not fully disclosed.", "exact_quote_short": "AI tools enable us to access more information and quickly synthesize it with our internal systems", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/jpmorgan-rolls-out-ai-tools-investment-banking-globally-senior-banker-says-2026-05-21/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-05-21", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_FIN_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_037" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_UK_FINANCE_AI_STRESS_TESTS", "kind": "event", "title": "UK lawmakers call for AI-specific financial-services stress tests", "date": "2026-01-20", "source_date": "2026-01-20", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/britain-needs-ai-stress-tests-financial-services-lawmakers-say-2026-01-20/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_about_parliamentary_report", "actor": "UK Treasury Committee, FCA, Bank of England", "actors": [ "UK Treasury Committee, FCA, Bank of England" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks", "UK", "US" ], "geography": [ "UK" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Financial authorities treat AI as potential market-stability and consumer-harm risk, not merely productivity software.", "claim_challenged": "UK regulators have not yet adopted full AI-specific stress tests.", "summary": "Financial authorities treat AI as potential market-stability and consumer-harm risk, not merely productivity software.", "notes": "Good counterweight: broad adoption, but regulator readiness gap.", "corroboration_needed": "Treasury Committee report primary text.", "caveat": "UK regulators have not yet adopted full AI-specific stress tests.", "exact_quote_short": "about three-quarters of UK financial firms now use AI", "numbers": { "uk_financial_firms_using_ai_share_reported": 0.75 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/britain-needs-ai-stress-tests-financial-services-lawmakers-say-2026-01-20/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-01-20", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_about_parliamentary_report" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_080" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI usage policy requires review/approval for national security or intelligence purposes and human review in high-stakes automated decisions", "date": "2025-10-29", "source_date": "2025-10-29", "year": 2025, "url": "https://openai.com/policies/usage-policies/", "source_name": "OpenAI Usage Policies", "source_type_raw": "company_policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI", "actors": [ "OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Quiet access-control mechanisms exist at the provider-policy layer: certain national security/intelligence and high-stakes uses are gated or require human review.", "claim_challenged": "Policy is private platform governance, not public law; enforcement details are not transparent.", "summary": "Quiet access-control mechanisms exist at the provider-policy layer: certain national security/intelligence and high-stakes uses are gated or require human review.", "notes": "Also prohibits weapons development/use, malicious cyber activity, and high-stakes automation without human review across critical infrastructure, finance, medical, government, law enforcement and national security.", "corroboration_needed": "Concrete examples of review outcomes, denials or approved national-security deployments.", "caveat": "Policy is private platform governance, not public law; enforcement details are not transparent.", "exact_quote_short": "national security or intelligence purposes without our review and approval", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "OpenAI Usage Policies", "name": "OpenAI Usage Policies", "url": "https://openai.com/policies/usage-policies/", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2025-10-29", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_QAC_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_038", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_045" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "kind": "event", "title": "Anthropic activates ASL-3 protections for Claude Opus 4 with CBRN classifiers, monitoring and vetted exemptions", "date": "2025-05-22", "source_date": "2025-05-22", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/activating-asl3-protections", "source_name": "Anthropic", "source_type_raw": "company_policy_and_safety_report", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Anthropic", "actors": [ "Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Biotech/CBRN-related access is quietly governed through classifiers, monitoring, rapid patching and vetted dual-use exemptions.", "claim_challenged": "Anthropic had not determined that Claude Opus 4 definitively crossed the ASL-3 capability threshold; ASL-3 was precautionary/provisional.", "summary": "Biotech/CBRN-related access is quietly governed through classifiers, monitoring, rapid patching and vetted dual-use exemptions.", "notes": "This is exactly the 'quiet control' layer: vetted access instead of a blanket yes/no.", "corroboration_needed": "Examples of approved dual-use science exemptions and false-positive handling.", "caveat": "Anthropic had not determined that Claude Opus 4 definitively crossed the ASL-3 capability threshold; ASL-3 was precautionary/provisional.", "exact_quote_short": "users with dual-use science and technology applications may be vetted to receive targeted exemptions", "numbers": { "security_controls_reported_gt": 100 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Anthropic", "name": "Anthropic", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/activating-asl3-protections", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2025-05-22", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_QAC_002", "EDGE_QAC_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_039", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_043" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "develops_into" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "kind": "event", "title": "Anthropic RSP planned ASL-3 safeguards include tiered access, enhanced due diligence and monitoring layers", "date": "2024-10-15", "source_date": "2024-10-15/2026-04-29", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/responsible-scaling-policy", "source_name": "Anthropic RSP Updates", "source_type_raw": "company_policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Anthropic", "actors": [ "Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Frontier-model governance can be implemented as tiered user access and enhanced due diligence, not only output refusal.", "claim_challenged": "Policy is company self-governance and non-binding in places; external enforceability is limited.", "summary": "Frontier-model governance can be implemented as tiered user access and enhanced due diligence, not only output refusal.", "notes": "Four-layer architecture: access controls, real-time classifiers, asynchronous monitoring, post-hoc jailbreak detection.", "corroboration_needed": "Audit evidence of due-diligence process and decisions.", "caveat": "Policy is company self-governance and non-binding in places; external enforceability is limited.", "exact_quote_short": "enhanced due diligence process ... trustworthiness and the beneficial nature of their use-case", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Anthropic RSP Updates", "name": "Anthropic RSP Updates", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/responsible-scaling-policy", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2024-10-15/2026-04-29", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_QAC_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_040", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_044" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "develops_into", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI delays public GPT-5.6 release and restricts initial access to vetted partners after U.S. government request", "date": "2026-06-26", "source_date": "2026-06-26", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-defers-public-rollout-gpt56-us-seeks-early-access-frontier-ai-models-2026-06-26/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "OpenAI, U.S. government", "actors": [ "OpenAI, U.S. government" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI", "US" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Pre-release model access is becoming a state-mediated governance layer.", "claim_challenged": "The arrangement is described as temporary; the primary executive-order text and company agreement should be checked.", "summary": "Pre-release model access is becoming a state-mediated governance layer.", "notes": "Quiet access-control mechanism: gated release by user category.", "corroboration_needed": "Executive order text and OpenAI primary announcement.", "caveat": "The arrangement is described as temporary; the primary executive-order text and company agreement should be checked.", "exact_quote_short": "select group of vetted partners", "numbers": { "pre_release_review_days_reported": 30 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/openai-defers-public-rollout-gpt56-us-seeks-early-access-frontier-ai-models-2026-06-26/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_QAC_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_041", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_049" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT55_CYBER_VETTED_ACCESS", "kind": "event", "title": "Axios: OpenAI rolls out enhanced GPT-5.5-Cyber only to vetted cybersecurity firms and researchers", "date": "2026-06-22", "source_date": "2026-06-22", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/22/openai-rolls-out-more-capable-version-of-cyber-model", "source_name": "Axios", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "OpenAI, cybersecurity firms and researchers", "actors": [ "OpenAI, cybersecurity firms and researchers" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI", "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Cyber-capable model access is being tiered by authorization and user vetting.", "claim_challenged": "Need OpenAI primary materials and exact eligibility criteria.", "summary": "Cyber-capable model access is being tiered by authorization and user vetting.", "notes": "Direct evidence for quiet cyber capability gating.", "corroboration_needed": "OpenAI announcement, API access terms and eligible partner list.", "caveat": "Need OpenAI primary materials and exact eligibility criteria.", "exact_quote_short": "accessible only to vetted cybersecurity firms and researchers", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Axios", "name": "Axios", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/22/openai-rolls-out-more-capable-version-of-cyber-model", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-22", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_MYTHOS_TRUSTED_ORGS", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. allows Anthropic to redeploy Mythos 5 to over 100 trusted U.S. organizations", "date": "2026-06-26", "source_date": "2026-06-26", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-releases-anthropic-model-mythos-some-us-companies-semafor-reports-2026-06-26/", "source_name": "Reuters / Semafor", "source_type_raw": "wire_reporting_secondary", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. government, Anthropic, critical infrastructure organizations", "actors": [ "U.S. government, Anthropic, critical infrastructure organizations" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ4", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Trusted-user lists are becoming an operational form of AI capability control.", "claim_challenged": "Criteria for trusted status and approved organizations are opaque.", "summary": "Trusted-user lists are becoming an operational form of AI capability control.", "notes": "Central record for quiet model-access stratification.", "corroboration_needed": "License terms, list criteria, non-U.S. access rules.", "caveat": "Criteria for trusted status and approved organizations are opaque.", "exact_quote_short": "over 100 'trusted' U.S. organizations", "numbers": { "trusted_organizations_reported_gt": 100 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Semafor", "name": "Reuters / Semafor", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-releases-anthropic-model-mythos-some-us-companies-semafor-reports-2026-06-26/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_QAC_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_042" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "kind": "event", "title": "Palantir Maven designated as core U.S. military command-and-control / program-of-record system", "date": "2026-03-20", "source_date": "2026-03-20", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-adopt-palantir-ai-as-core-us-military-system-memo-says-2026-03-20/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_reviewed_memo", "actor": "Palantir, U.S. Department of Defense, CDAO, U.S. Army", "actors": [ "Palantir, U.S. Department of Defense, CDAO, U.S. Army" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US", "Middle East", "Iran" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir is not just analytics software; Maven is being institutionalized as a durable military decision-support operating layer.", "claim_challenged": "Palantir says humans remain responsible for selecting and approving lethal decisions; use as command-support/targeting-support evidence, not autonomous weapon proof.", "summary": "Palantir is not just analytics software; Maven is being institutionalized as a durable military decision-support operating layer.", "notes": "Core Palantir record; overlaps previous Maven entry but adds Palantir-specific framing.", "corroboration_needed": "March 9 Feinberg memo primary text; DoD program-of-record budget lines.", "caveat": "Palantir says humans remain responsible for selecting and approving lethal decisions; use as command-support/targeting-support evidence, not autonomous weapon proof.", "exact_quote_short": "official program of record", "numbers": { "maven_contract_ceiling_2025_usd": 1300000000, "reported_market_value_palantir_usd": 360000000000, "reported_users_approx": 25000 }, "money_status": "contract_ceiling_reported", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-adopt-palantir-ai-as-core-us-military-system-memo-says-2026-03-20/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_reviewed_memo" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_001", "EDGE_PAL_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_050", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_061", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_083" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "develops_into", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "kind": "event", "title": "NATO acquires Palantir Maven Smart System NATO for Allied Command Operations", "date": "2025-03-25", "source_date": "2025-04-14", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.investopedia.com/palantir-stock-pops-after-nato-acquires-ai-enabled-warfighting-system-11714572", "source_name": "NATO statement summarized by Investopedia / IBD / FT", "source_type_raw": "secondary_summarizing_primary_statement", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "NATO Communications and Information Agency, Palantir, Allied Command Operations", "actors": [ "NATO Communications and Information Agency, Palantir, Allied Command Operations" ], "actor_facets": [ "Multilateral institutions", "NATO", "Palantir" ], "geography": [ "NATO", "EU", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir's decision stack is being exported into alliance-level warfighting infrastructure, making it a platform-affiliation layer for NATO.", "claim_challenged": "Financial terms not disclosed; deployment details and operational dependence need primary NATO documents.", "summary": "Palantir's decision stack is being exported into alliance-level warfighting infrastructure, making it a platform-affiliation layer for NATO.", "notes": "Useful for 'platform affiliate' and alliance dependency.", "corroboration_needed": "NCIA primary page archived; NATO deployment/evaluation documentation.", "caveat": "Financial terms not disclosed; deployment details and operational dependence need primary NATO documents.", "exact_quote_short": "employment within NATO's Allied Command Operations", "numbers": { "procurement_duration_months": 6, "deployment_window_days_reported": 30 }, "money_status": "contract_announced_terms_undisclosed", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "NATO statement summarized by Investopedia / IBD / FT", "name": "NATO statement summarized by Investopedia / IBD / FT", "url": "https://www.investopedia.com/palantir-stock-pops-after-nato-acquires-ai-enabled-warfighting-system-11714572", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-04-14", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_051", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_059" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_ENTERPRISE", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. Army awards Palantir a $10B enterprise agreement consolidating software/data/AI access", "date": "2025-07-31", "source_date": "2025-07-31", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/07/31/palantir-army-contract-10bn/", "source_name": "Washington Post", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Palantir, U.S. Army", "actors": [ "Palantir, U.S. Army" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir's role is becoming an enterprise layer across the U.S. Army rather than isolated project software.", "claim_challenged": "Contract ceiling / enterprise agreement is not the same as fully obligated spend.", "summary": "Palantir's role is becoming an enterprise layer across the U.S. Army rather than isolated project software.", "notes": "Important distinction: ceiling/vehicle vs spent money.", "corroboration_needed": "Army contract award notice and obligation schedule.", "caveat": "Contract ceiling / enterprise agreement is not the same as fully obligated spend.", "exact_quote_short": "largest in Palantir's history", "numbers": { "contract_ceiling_usd": 10000000000, "duration_years": 10, "contracts_consolidated_reported": 75 }, "money_status": "contract_ceiling_enterprise_agreement", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Washington Post", "name": "Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/07/31/palantir-army-contract-10bn/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-07-31", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_056" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_PALANTIR_TITAN_ARMY", "kind": "event", "title": "Palantir wins U.S. Army TITAN contract for AI/ML-enabled targeting ground station prototypes", "date": "2024-03-06", "source_date": "2024-03/2024-08", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.axios.com/2024/08/07/palantir-titan-army-jblm", "source_name": "Axios / Investopedia / U.S. Army release reporting", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Palantir, U.S. Army", "actors": [ "Palantir, U.S. Army" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir links sensor fusion, targeting intelligence and AI/ML at tactical edge, not only headquarters analytics.", "claim_challenged": "Prototype delivery/testing does not prove full operational deployment.", "summary": "Palantir links sensor fusion, targeting intelligence and AI/ML at tactical edge, not only headquarters analytics.", "notes": "Shows Palantir moving from software layer into sensor/edge decision infrastructure.", "corroboration_needed": "Army contract award and test results.", "caveat": "Prototype delivery/testing does not prove full operational deployment.", "exact_quote_short": "AI-fueled TITAN prototype", "numbers": { "contract_value_usd": 178400000, "prototypes_expected": 10 }, "money_status": "prototype_contract_awarded", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Axios / Investopedia / U.S. Army release reporting", "name": "Axios / Investopedia / U.S. Army release reporting", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2024/08/07/palantir-titan-army-jblm", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2024-03/2024-08", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_001" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "develops_into" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "kind": "event", "title": "UK MoD awards Palantir £240.6M follow-on contract for data analytics across strategic, tactical and live operational decision-making", "date": "2025-12-01", "source_date": "2026-01/2026-02", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/palantir-to-continue-uk-ministry-of-defense-work-in-new-three-year-deal-gbp240-million-data-analytics-contract-awarded-without-procurement", "source_name": "TechRadar / FT / UK reporting", "source_type_raw": "technology_press_and_major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Palantir, UK Ministry of Defence", "actors": [ "Palantir, UK Ministry of Defence" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "UK" ], "geography": [ "UK", "NATO" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir is embedded in allied defence decision workflows and creates interoperability/lock-in dynamics.", "claim_challenged": "Non-competitive/direct award and revolving-door allegations make it a procurement-governance concern, not just capability evidence.", "summary": "Palantir is embedded in allied defence decision workflows and creates interoperability/lock-in dynamics.", "notes": "Strong vendor lock-in example: land-and-expand / sole-source continuation.", "corroboration_needed": "UK MoD contract notice and redacted terms.", "caveat": "Non-competitive/direct award and revolving-door allegations make it a procurement-governance concern, not just capability evidence.", "exact_quote_short": "critical strategic, tactical and live operational decision making", "numbers": { "contract_value_gbp": 240600000, "duration_years": 3, "previous_contract_value_gbp": 75200000 }, "money_status": "contract_awarded", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "TechRadar / FT / UK reporting", "name": "TechRadar / FT / UK reporting", "url": "https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/palantir-to-continue-uk-ministry-of-defense-work-in-new-three-year-deal-gbp240-million-data-analytics-contract-awarded-without-procurement", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-01/2026-02", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_052", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_055", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_060" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "kind": "event", "title": "Palantir NHS Federated Data Platform: broad contractor access and disputed effectiveness claims", "date": "2026-05-11", "source_date": "2026-05/2026-06", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-nhs-grant-palantir-contractors-unlimited-access-patient-data-ft-reports-2026-05-11/", "source_name": "Reuters / Financial Times", "source_type_raw": "wire_and_major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Palantir, NHS England", "actors": [ "Palantir, NHS England" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "UK" ], "geography": [ "UK" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir's platform role extends to national health-data integration and operational decision-support.", "claim_challenged": "NHS/Palantir state the NHS retains data ownership/control; recent FT reporting says claimed performance impacts lack causal proof.", "summary": "Palantir's platform role extends to national health-data integration and operational decision-support.", "notes": "Excellent reviewer-proofing case: shows both control concern and counterclaim that Palantir is processor not owner/controller.", "corroboration_needed": "NHS contract, NDIT access-control documentation, independent audit of outcome claims.", "caveat": "NHS/Palantir state the NHS retains data ownership/control; recent FT reporting says claimed performance impacts lack causal proof.", "exact_quote_short": "unlimited access", "numbers": { "fdp_contract_value_gbp": 330000000, "additional_operations_claimed": 110000, "discharge_delay_reduction_claimed": 0.15 }, "money_status": "contract_awarded; performance_claims_contested", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified_contested", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Financial Times", "name": "Reuters / Financial Times", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-nhs-grant-palantir-contractors-unlimited-access-patient-data-ft-reports-2026-05-11/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-05/2026-06", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_006", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_053", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_057", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_062" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "walks_back", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MET_POLICE_AI", "kind": "event", "title": "Met Police extends Palantir AI pilot despite blocked £50M contract; tool profiles ~45,000 staff for misconduct/welfare risk", "date": "2026-06-24", "source_date": "2026-06-24", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/24/met-gets-extension-to-ai-project-with-spy-tech-firm-palantir-after-mayor-blocked-deal", "source_name": "The Guardian", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Palantir, Metropolitan Police, London Mayor", "actors": [ "Palantir, Metropolitan Police, London Mayor" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "UK", "US" ], "geography": [ "UK", "London" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir-style AI moves into law-enforcement internal risk detection and intelligence workflows.", "claim_challenged": "Procurement concerns and lack of competitive consideration are central; future supplier not guaranteed.", "summary": "Palantir-style AI moves into law-enforcement internal risk detection and intelligence workflows.", "notes": "Shows police/discipline layer: governance of agents inside the state, not just citizens.", "corroboration_needed": "Met procurement documents, DPIA, model-risk assessment.", "caveat": "Procurement concerns and lack of competitive consideration are central; future supplier not guaranteed.", "exact_quote_short": "profiling around 45,000 staff", "numbers": { "blocked_contract_value_gbp": 50000000, "pilot_extension_months": 12, "staff_profiled_approx": 45000 }, "money_status": "pilot_extension; blocked_contract", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "The Guardian", "name": "The Guardian", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jun/24/met-gets-extension-to-ai-project-with-spy-tech-firm-palantir-after-mayor-blocked-deal", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_009", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_058" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "generalizes", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_IMMIGRATIONOS", "kind": "event", "title": "ICE pays Palantir $30M to build ImmigrationOS for deportation lifecycle and near-real-time tracking workflows", "date": "2025-04-18", "source_date": "2025-04/2025-12", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/ice-palantir-immigrationos", "source_name": "Wired / Washington Post / Guardian FOIA reporting", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet_investigation", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_with_contract_docs", "actor": "Palantir, U.S. ICE / DHS", "actors": [ "Palantir, U.S. ICE / DHS" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir enables state operational control over immigration/deportation workflows through data integration and prioritization systems.", "claim_challenged": "Palantir maintains it supports lawful operations and does not itself set immigration policy.", "summary": "Palantir enables state operational control over immigration/deportation workflows through data integration and prioritization systems.", "notes": "Key civilian-security case for structural power and surveillance concerns.", "corroboration_needed": "SAM.gov/ICE contract record, task order, privacy impact assessment.", "caveat": "Palantir maintains it supports lawful operations and does not itself set immigration policy.", "exact_quote_short": "Targeting and Enforcement Prioritization", "numbers": { "immigration_os_contract_value_usd": 30000000, "prototype_deadline": "2025-09", "contract_runs_through_at_least": 2027 }, "money_status": "contract_awarded", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Wired / Washington Post / Guardian FOIA reporting", "name": "Wired / Washington Post / Guardian FOIA reporting", "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/ice-palantir-immigrationos", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-04/2025-12", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_with_contract_docs" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_008", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_054" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "generalizes", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_FOIA_DATA_PRACTICES", "kind": "event", "title": "FOIA documents reveal ICE reliance on Palantir Falcon/ICM and broad database integration", "date": "2025-09-22", "source_date": "2025-09-22", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2025/sep/22/ice-palantir-data", "source_name": "The Guardian / Just Futures Law FOIA", "source_type_raw": "investigative_reporting_with_foia_docs", "source_type": "Investigative reporting", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_with_primary_documents", "actor": "ICE, Palantir, Just Futures Law", "actors": [ "ICE, Palantir, Just Futures Law" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir", "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir systems fuse public and private datasets into actionable state enforcement workflows.", "claim_challenged": "Historic ICE HSI/Falcon/ICM evidence does not automatically prove every current ImmigrationOS capability.", "summary": "Palantir systems fuse public and private datasets into actionable state enforcement workflows.", "notes": "Important for 'data telemetry' layer.", "corroboration_needed": "Review FOIA documents directly and map data sources by system.", "caveat": "Historic ICE HSI/Falcon/ICM evidence does not automatically prove every current ImmigrationOS capability.", "exact_quote_short": "access and analyze data from a wide network of both public and private databases", "numbers": { "foia_period_start": 2014, "foia_period_end": 2022 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "The Guardian / Just Futures Law FOIA", "name": "The Guardian / Just Futures Law FOIA", "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2025/sep/22/ice-palantir-data", "type": "Investigative reporting", "date": "2025-09-22", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_with_primary_documents" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_REVENUE_AIP_GROWTH", "kind": "event", "title": "Palantir Q4/FY2025 growth driven by AIP demand in U.S. government and commercial markets", "date": "2026-02-01", "source_date": "2026-02", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/palantirs-stock-surges-as-ai-demand-drives-another-record-quarter-deb6b082", "source_name": "MarketWatch / company earnings reporting", "source_type_raw": "financial_press", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_about_company_results", "actor": "Palantir", "actors": [ "Palantir" ], "actor_facets": [ "Palantir" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Palantir's AIP has become a commercial growth engine, indicating demand for operational AI layers beyond government.", "claim_challenged": "Financial growth does not by itself identify the criticality of each deployment.", "summary": "Palantir's AIP has become a commercial growth engine, indicating demand for operational AI layers beyond government.", "notes": "Use as scale indicator, not as direct evidence of structural power.", "corroboration_needed": "Palantir 10-K and earnings release primary documents.", "caveat": "Financial growth does not by itself identify the criticality of each deployment.", "exact_quote_short": "AI demand drives another record quarter", "numbers": { "q4_2025_revenue_usd": 1410000000, "q4_2025_revenue_yoy_growth": 0.7, "us_commercial_revenue_usd": 507000000, "us_commercial_yoy_growth": 1.37, "us_government_revenue_usd": 570000000, "us_government_yoy_growth": 0.66, "q4_total_contract_value_usd": 4260000000, "fy2026_revenue_guidance_usd_min": 7180000000, "fy2026_revenue_guidance_usd_max": 7200000000 }, "money_status": "reported_company_financials", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "MarketWatch / company earnings reporting", "name": "MarketWatch / company earnings reporting", "url": "https://www.marketwatch.com/story/palantirs-stock-surges-as-ai-demand-drives-another-record-quarter-deb6b082", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-02", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_about_company_results" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_AGGREGATE_INVESTMENT", "kind": "event", "title": "Stanford AI Index 2026: global corporate AI investment $581.7B; global private $344.7B; US private $285.9B vs China $12.4B", "date": "2026-04-13", "source_date": "2026-04-13", "year": 2026, "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report", "source_name": "Stanford HAI", "source_type_raw": "research_institute", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "US/China/global", "actors": [ "US/China/global" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1_scale" ], "claim_supported": "AI capital concentration is real, but the dataset must separate annual corporate/private investment from capex, guidance funds and multi-year announcements.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "AI capital concentration is real, but the dataset must separate annual corporate/private investment from capex, guidance funds and multi-year announcements.", "notes": "v0.13 adds workbook-derived ledger fields for 2024 baselines, UK 2024 and the spent-vs-announced distinction.", "corroboration_needed": "Extract exact AI Index 2026 PDF figure tables for slide footnotes.", "caveat": "Extract exact AI Index 2026 PDF figure tables for slide footnotes.", "exact_quote_short": "U.S. private AI investment reached $285.9 billion in 2025, more than 23 times the $12.4 billion invested in China", "numbers": { "us_private_2025_usd": 285900000000, "china_private_2025_usd": 12400000000, "global_private_2025_usd": 344700000000, "global_private_yoy": 1.275, "global_corporate_2025_usd": 581700000000, "global_corporate_yoy": 1.3, "ratio_us_china": 23.1, "global_corporate_2024_usd": 253000000000, "global_genai_private_2024_usd": 33900000000, "us_private_2024_usd": 109100000000, "china_private_2024_usd": 9300000000, "uk_private_2024_usd": 4500000000 }, "money_status": "private_and_corporate_investment_reported", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Stanford HAI", "name": "Stanford HAI", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_063" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_GUIDANCE_FUND_CLARIFY", "kind": "event", "title": "Stanford AI Index 2026 Economy chapter: Chinese guidance funds deployed ~$184B into AI firms (2000-2023); the ~$912B figure is across ALL industries", "date": "2026-04-13", "source_date": "2026-04-13", "year": 2026, "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "source_name": "Stanford HAI", "source_type_raw": "research_institute", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "China", "actors": [ "China" ], "actor_facets": [ "China" ], "geography": [ "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1_scale" ], "claim_supported": "China's mobilised AI capital is far larger than private databases show.", "claim_challenged": "The $8.2B early-stage AI state fund line is workbook/press-derived and should not be treated as the same evidence class as the Stanford guidance-fund estimate.", "summary": "China's mobilised AI capital is far larger than private databases show.", "notes": "CORRECTION FLAG: several recaps conflate the $912B all-industry guidance-fund figure with AI. The AI-specific figure is ~$184B. Google reported >$150B annual capex 2025.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "The $8.2B early-stage AI state fund line is workbook/press-derived and should not be treated as the same evidence class as the Stanford guidance-fund estimate.", "exact_quote_short": "government guidance funds have deployed an estimated $184 billion into AI firms between 2000 and 2023", "numbers": { "china_guidance_into_AI_2000_2023_usd": 184000000000, "china_guidance_all_industries_2000_2023_usd": 912000000000, "google_capex_2025_usd": 150000000000, "china_early_stage_ai_state_fund_2025_reported_usd": 8199999999.999999 }, "money_status": "allocated_estimate", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Stanford HAI", "name": "Stanford HAI", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_064" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_MODELS_COMPUTE_TALENT", "kind": "event", "title": "Stanford AI Index 2026: US 50 vs China 30 notable models; US 5,427 data centers; researcher inflow -89% since 2017; model gap 2.7%", "date": "2026-04-13", "source_date": "2026-04-13", "year": 2026, "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeaways-from-the-2026-report", "source_name": "Stanford HAI", "source_type_raw": "research_institute", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "US/China", "actors": [ "US/China" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1_scale" ], "claim_supported": "US leads on models/compute concentration; China nearly closed the capability gap; US talent advantage eroding.", "claim_challenged": "That capital concentration buys a durable capability moat.", "summary": "US leads on models/compute concentration; China nearly closed the capability gap; US talent advantage eroding.", "notes": "Global AI DC power 29.6 GW (secondary). US genAI adoption 24th at 28.3%; Singapore 61%, UAE 54%. v0.12: normalized from technical stack_layer=multiple into concrete model/compute/cloud layers.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "That capital concentration buys a durable capability moat.", "exact_quote_short": "The United States hosts 5,427 data centers, more than 10 times any other country", "numbers": { "us_notable_models_2025": 50, "china_notable_models_2025": 30, "us_data_centers": 5427, "talent_inflow_change_since_2017": -0.89, "talent_inflow_change_last_year": -0.8, "model_gap_pct_march_2026": 2.7, "global_dc_power_gw": 29.6, "us_genai_adoption_share": 0.283 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Stanford HAI", "name": "Stanford HAI", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeaways-from-the-2026-report", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_065" ], "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "kind": "event", "title": "BIS final rule (FR 2026-00789): H200 and AMD MI325X to China shift from presumption-of-denial to case-by-case review with security conditions", "date": "2026-01-15", "source_date": "2026-01-15", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china", "source_name": "US Commerce / BIS", "source_type_raw": "government", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "US", "actors": [ "US" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3_weaponized_interdependence" ], "claim_supported": "Export control evolved from a wall into a graduated, taxed, conditional access regime.", "claim_challenged": "That advanced chips are simply 'banned' from China.", "summary": "Export control evolved from a wall into a graduated, taxed, conditional access regime.", "notes": "Follows Trump Dec 8 2025 announcement allowing H200 (not Blackwell), 25% revenue tax, approved customers only. Conditions: 25% tariff, 50% volume cap, third-party testing, KYC.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "That advanced chips are simply 'banned' from China.", "exact_quote_short": "BIS will now review export license applications for the Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X ... on a case-by-case basis", "numbers": { "tariff_pct": 25, "volume_cap_pct": 50 }, "money_status": "revenue_tax", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "US Commerce / BIS", "name": "US Commerce / BIS", "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2026-01-15", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_TOLL_002", "EDGE_TOLL_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_066", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_071" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "updates", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_NVIDIA_H200_LICENSE_SMALL", "kind": "event", "title": "Nvidia secures US license to ship a small number of H200 to China (US inspection + 25% duty); restarts H200 manufacturing; China demand uncertain", "date": "2026-02-26", "source_date": "2026-03-17", "year": 2026, "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-gets-us-license-small-020053211.html", "source_name": "Bloomberg / Tom's Hardware", "source_type_raw": "wire_and_tech_press", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "US/China", "actors": [ "US/China" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3_weaponized_interdependence" ], "claim_supported": "Conditional chip access is being operationalised but throttled by both US licensing and Chinese ambivalence.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "Conditional chip access is being operationalised but throttled by both US licensing and Chinese ambivalence.", "notes": "GTC 2026 (Jensen Huang): export licenses for multiple Chinese customers, POs in hand, H200 manufacturing restarted. Nvidia excluded China DC revenue from Q1 outlook. Chinese officials told Alibaba etc. to prepare H200 orders.", "corroboration_needed": "Confirm shipment volumes and whether Beijing approves imports.", "caveat": "Confirm shipment volumes and whether Beijing approves imports.", "exact_quote_short": "granted it a license for H200 shipments, subject to inspection in the US and a 25% duty", "numbers": { "china_orders_h200_units_reported": 2000000, "approved_unshipped_h200_reported": 400000 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Bloomberg / Tom's Hardware", "name": "Bloomberg / Tom's Hardware", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-gets-us-license-small-020053211.html", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-03-17", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_067" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_BLACKWELL_DENIAL_HUAWEI_ASCEND", "kind": "event", "title": "Blackwell (B200/GB200/GB300) remains presumption-of-denial for China; AI OVERWATCH Act would impose 2-yr Blackwell ban; Huawei to ship 600,000 Ascend 910C in 2026", "date": "2026-02-22", "source_date": "2026-02-22", "year": 2026, "url": "https://introl.com/blog/bis-h200-china-export-policy-ai-overwatch-act-2026", "source_name": "Introl / CNAS (cited)", "source_type_raw": "industry_and_thinktank", "source_type": "Industry / think tank", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "US/China", "actors": [ "US/China" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3_weaponized_interdependence" ], "claim_supported": "The frontier (Blackwell) stays denied while previous-gen is conditionally released; China scales a domestic alternative regardless.", "claim_challenged": "", "summary": "The frontier (Blackwell) stays denied while previous-gen is conditionally released; China scales a domestic alternative regardless.", "notes": "B30A is a speculated cut-down China Blackwell (~half B300, ~$22.5K, 2.2x Ascend 910C) considered but not approved as of mid-2026. Think tanks warn export cap alone could raise China domestic AI compute ~250%.", "corroboration_needed": "Confirm Huawei shipment numbers and Ascend 910C yield via independent teardown.", "caveat": "Confirm Huawei shipment numbers and Ascend 910C yield via independent teardown.", "exact_quote_short": "Huawei plans to ship 600,000 Ascend 910C chips in 2026 regardless of what Washington decides", "numbers": { "huawei_ascend_910c_2026_ship_target": 600000, "cnas_huawei_h200_equiv_2026_estimate": 390000, "china_compute_increase_from_cap_pct": 250 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Introl / CNAS (cited)", "name": "Introl / CNAS (cited)", "url": "https://introl.com/blog/bis-h200-china-export-policy-ai-overwatch-act-2026", "type": "Industry / think tank", "date": "2026-02-22", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_TOLL_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_068" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "qualifies", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_BIS_ANTHROPIC_ISINFORMED_LETTER", "kind": "event", "title": "BIS 'is-informed' letter (Lutnick to Amodei) requires an individually validated license before any foreign-national access to Mythos 5 / Fable 5; cites ECRA 50 USC 4817(b)(1) and EAR 744.22(b); legal basis publicly contested", "date": "2026-06-12", "source_date": "2026-06-16", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/read-the-lutnick-letter-that-led-anthropic-to-disable-mythos", "source_name": "Bloomberg / CSIS / Lawfare / Just Security", "source_type_raw": "wire_and_legal_analysis", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "US", "actors": [ "US" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structures": [ "multiple" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3_weaponized_interdependence" ], "claim_supported": "Export-control law was stretched to control a frontier model's access; the state treated a model as a controlled dual-use technology.", "claim_challenged": "That the legal basis is settled — multiple experts argue SaaS is not an 'item', the worldwide scope exceeds 744.22, and there are First Amendment problems.", "summary": "Export-control law was stretched to control a frontier model's access; the state treated a model as a controlled dual-use technology.", "notes": "First time Commerce used this ECRA 'is-informed' provision against an AI model. Trigger reportedly Amazon researchers' jailbreak of Fable 5; Jassy warned the White House. 80+ cyber execs (incl. Nvidia, Adobe leaders) and G7 governments urged restoration. Legal critique: Lawfare 'A Kill Switch for Frontier AI', CSIS, Just Security, Phillips-Robins (services not covered by EAR; worldwide scope overbroad; 1A).", "corroboration_needed": "Government has NOT published the official order text; basis known via Bloomberg-obtained copy and analyses. Track Anthropic litigation and any BIS public guidance.", "caveat": "That the legal basis is settled — multiple experts argue SaaS is not an 'item', the worldwide scope exceeds 744.22, and there are First Amendment problems.", "exact_quote_short": "obtain an individually validated export license before sharing Mythos 5 and Fable 5 with any foreign national anywhere", "numbers": { "authority_usc": "50 USC 4817(b)(1)", "authority_ear": "15 CFR 744.22(b)", "experts_open_letter_signatures": 80 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Bloomberg / CSIS / Lawfare / Just Security", "name": "Bloomberg / CSIS / Lawfare / Just Security", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/read-the-lutnick-letter-that-led-anthropic-to-disable-mythos", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-16", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_006" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_PRIMARY", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. Army Enterprise Agreement to Palantir: contract W519TC-25-D-0039, 10-yr IDC, ceiling $10B, action obligation $0 at award; consolidates 75 contracts (15 prime + 60 related)", "date": "2025-07-31", "source_date": "2025-07-31", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.army.mil/article/287506/u_s_army_awards_enterprise_service_agreement_to_enhance_military_readiness_and_drive_operational_efficiency", "source_name": "U.S. Army (army.mil) + federal award record", "source_type_raw": "government", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "US", "actors": [ "US" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structures": [ "multiple" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5_cognitive_security_decision_support" ], "claim_supported": "A single private vendor is being positioned as the consolidated decision/data backbone of the U.S. Army.", "claim_challenged": "That $10B was 'awarded/spent' — it is a ceiling with $0 obligated at award.", "summary": "A single private vendor is being positioned as the consolidated decision/data backbone of the U.S. Army.", "notes": "Awardee PALANTIR USG INC (UEI HNN4F9JZWDY8); Army Contracting Command, Rock Island Arsenal; firm-fixed-price IDC. Maven Smart System boosted +$795M May 2025; Maven now a Department of War program-of-record. DefenseScoop: Army is not actually obligating $10B.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "That $10B was 'awarded/spent' — it is a ceiling with $0 obligated at award.", "exact_quote_short": "This amount represents the maximum potential value of the contract, not any specific obligations or commitments", "numbers": { "contract_ceiling_usd": 10000000000, "action_obligation_at_award_usd": 0, "contracts_consolidated": 75, "prime_contracts": 15, "related_contracts": 60, "performance_years": 10, "contract_number": "W519TC-25-D-0039", "naics": 541511 }, "money_status": "contract_ceiling_not_obligated", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "U.S. Army (army.mil) + federal award record", "name": "U.S. Army (army.mil) + federal award record", "url": "https://www.army.mil/article/287506/u_s_army_awards_enterprise_service_agreement_to_enhance_military_readiness_and_drive_operational_efficiency", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2025-07-31", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_004" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE", "kind": "event", "title": "Malaysia customs seizes 72 AI-chip server units worth about $12.93M in alleged transshipment scheme", "date": "2026-06-26", "source_date": "2026-06-26", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysia-customs-seizes-ai-chips-worth-13-mln-kuala-lumpur-airport-2026-06-26/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Malaysia Customs Department; unnamed Malaysian company; suspected re-export route", "actors": [ "Malaysia Customs Department; unnamed Malaysian company; suspected re-export route" ], "actor_facets": [ "Malaysia" ], "geography": [ "Malaysia", "Asia", "China-route-possible" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "F" ], "claim_supported": "AI-chip controls create real enforcement and transshipment chokepoints; third countries become policing nodes in the stack.", "claim_challenged": "Controls are not airtight: smuggling and route-around attempts are active and material.", "summary": "AI-chip controls create real enforcement and transshipment chokepoints; third countries become policing nodes in the stack.", "notes": "Reviewer-proofing: use as both support for chokepoint enforcement and counter-evidence to perfect-control claims.", "corroboration_needed": "Need chip model, end destination, prosecution record and whether U.S. export-control violation is alleged.", "caveat": "Controls are not airtight: smuggling and route-around attempts are active and material.", "exact_quote_short": "72 server units containing high-performance AI chips", "numbers": { "server_units": 72, "value_myr": 52900000, "value_usd": 12930000 }, "money_status": "seized_goods_value", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysia-customs-seizes-ai-chips-worth-13-mln-kuala-lumpur-airport-2026-06-26/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_LEAK_001", "EDGE_LEAK_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_069" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_counterargument", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_POWER_STRESS_REVIEW", "kind": "event", "title": "AI data-center load growth outpaces clean-energy deployment in several regions and challenges grid flexibility/reliability", "date": "2026-06-19", "source_date": "2026-06-19", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21064", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint_review", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Power-systems researchers", "actors": [ "Power-systems researchers" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2", "F" ], "claim_supported": "AI-stack power is an energy/grid governance issue, not only a chip/model issue.", "claim_challenged": "The paper also identifies flexibility and sustainability pathways; energy bottlenecks are not absolute destiny.", "summary": "AI-stack power is an energy/grid governance issue, not only a chip/model issue.", "notes": "Use to strengthen the bottom-of-stack claim while preserving mitigation caveat.", "corroboration_needed": "Peer review and region-specific grid data.", "caveat": "The paper also identifies flexibility and sustainability pathways; energy bottlenecks are not absolute destiny.", "exact_quote_short": "rapid, spatially concentrated data center load growth is outpacing clean energy deployment", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.21064", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-06-19", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_072" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_CONCENTRATED_SITING_POWER_STRESS", "kind": "event", "title": "Projected AI data-center electricity use by six leading firms rises from ~118 TWh in 2024 to 239–295 TWh by 2030; regional siting drives power-system stress", "date": "2026-03-13", "source_date": "2026-03-13", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06198", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Energy-system modeling researchers", "actors": [ "Energy-system modeling researchers" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "North America", "Western Europe", "Asia-Pacific", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "AI infrastructure becomes a structural component of power-system dynamics, with local grid vulnerability in high-concentration regions.", "claim_challenged": "Diversified grids such as Texas and Japan may absorb new loads better; stress is location-dependent.", "summary": "AI infrastructure becomes a structural component of power-system dynamics, with local grid vulnerability in high-concentration regions.", "notes": "Good for energy maps: Virginia/Ireland/Oregon vs Texas/Japan.", "corroboration_needed": "Cross-check with IEA/EPRI/NERC and hyperscaler regional load disclosures.", "caveat": "Diversified grids such as Texas and Japan may absorb new loads better; stress is location-dependent.", "exact_quote_short": "concentrated in North America, Western Europe, and the Asia-Pacific", "numbers": { "six_firms_electricity_2024_twh": 118, "six_firms_electricity_2030_twh_min": 239, "six_firms_electricity_2030_twh_max": 295, "projected_global_power_share_2030": 0.01, "projected_compute_capacity_share_top_regions_gt": 0.9, "high_power_stress_index_threshold": 0.25 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06198", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_ENERGY_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_073" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS", "kind": "event", "title": "Real-world 130 kW GPU-cluster deployment shows AI data centers can curtail and shift workloads in response to grid conditions", "date": "2026-06-23", "source_date": "2026-06-23", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25098", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Power-flexible AI data-center research team", "actors": [ "Power-flexible AI data-center research team" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "F" ], "claim_supported": "AI infrastructure can become grid-interactive; compute scheduling may partly mitigate grid constraints.", "claim_challenged": "Energy bottleneck arguments must not assume data centers are fixed, inflexible loads.", "summary": "AI infrastructure can become grid-interactive; compute scheduling may partly mitigate grid constraints.", "notes": "Strong counterargument row: flexibility can weaken the pure-bottleneck story.", "corroboration_needed": "Need replication at MW/GW-scale production clusters.", "caveat": "Energy bottleneck arguments must not assume data centers are fixed, inflexible loads.", "exact_quote_short": "real-world deployment on a 130 kW GPU cluster", "numbers": { "real_world_gpu_cluster_kw": 130 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25098", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-06-23", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_ENERGY_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_074" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "mitigates", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION", "kind": "event", "title": "AI data-center load flexibility can reduce grid investment and operating costs by 3–21%, but benefits are location-dependent and diminishing", "date": "2026-04-07", "source_date": "2026-04-07", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.05376", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Grid-interconnection modeling researchers", "actors": [ "Grid-interconnection modeling researchers" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Flexible compute is a real grid-planning lever.", "claim_challenged": "More flexibility does not always reduce required generation capacity; energy bottleneck mitigation is conditional.", "summary": "Flexible compute is a real grid-planning lever.", "notes": "Useful nuanced counterweight: not all flexibility is equally valuable.", "corroboration_needed": "Peer review and utility-scale deployment evidence.", "caveat": "More flexibility does not always reduce required generation capacity; energy bottleneck mitigation is conditional.", "exact_quote_short": "reduce grid investment and operational costs by 3-21%", "numbers": { "grid_cost_reduction_min": 0.03, "grid_cost_reduction_max": 0.21 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.05376", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-07", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_ENERGY_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_075" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_counterargument", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_DATA_CENTER_BACKLASH_US_POLL", "kind": "event", "title": "Axios/Milltown poll: U.S. data-center backlash becomes public proxy for broader AI anxiety; nearly half support temporary ban", "date": "2026-06-22", "source_date": "2026-06-22", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/22/ai-data-center-backlash-poll", "source_name": "Axios", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet_poll_reporting", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. voters; Milltown Partners; data-center developers", "actors": [ "U.S. voters; Milltown Partners; data-center developers" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "F" ], "claim_supported": "AI infrastructure now has a visible political surface; public resistance can affect deployment speed.", "claim_challenged": "Backlash is not purely about data-center local impacts; it may be a proxy for broader AI anxiety, making causal claims tricky.", "summary": "AI infrastructure now has a visible political surface; public resistance can affect deployment speed.", "notes": "Adds democratic/local governance as a constraint on compute buildout.", "corroboration_needed": "Need full poll crosstabs, sampling and wording.", "caveat": "Backlash is not purely about data-center local impacts; it may be a proxy for broader AI anxiety, making causal claims tricky.", "exact_quote_short": "nearly half ... support a temporary ban", "numbers": { "survey_respondents": 6872, "temporary_ban_support_approx_share": 0.5 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Axios", "name": "Axios", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/22/ai-data-center-backlash-poll", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-22", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_ENERGY_004" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DRONE_FOOTAGE_AI_TRAINING", "kind": "event", "title": "Ukraine conflict drone-footage corpus: 500,000+ hours used to train computer-vision and autonomous-drone models", "date": "2026-06-23", "source_date": "2026-06-23", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.techradar.com/pro/half-a-million-hours-of-ukraine-conflict-drone-footage-to-be-used-to-train-and-deploy-new-ai-models-for-autonomous-targeting-drone-swarms", "source_name": "TechRadar", "source_type_raw": "technology_press", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Enabled Intelligence; Ukraine-linked drone-data ecosystem", "actors": [ "Enabled Intelligence; Ukraine-linked drone-data ecosystem" ], "actor_facets": [ "Ukraine" ], "geography": [ "Ukraine", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "War becomes a data flywheel: operational drone footage becomes training data for autonomous targeting and swarm systems.", "claim_challenged": "Tech press / company-reported dataset; needs procurement, partner and validation trail.", "summary": "War becomes a data flywheel: operational drone footage becomes training data for autonomous targeting and swarm systems.", "notes": "Important for data_telemetry layer; do not include operational targeting instructions.", "corroboration_needed": "Need primary company release, Ukrainian government confirmation, and dataset-governance details.", "caveat": "Tech press / company-reported dataset; needs procurement, partner and validation trail.", "exact_quote_short": "500,000 hours of drone footage", "numbers": { "drone_footage_hours_gt": 500000 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "TechRadar", "name": "TechRadar", "url": "https://www.techradar.com/pro/half-a-million-hours-of-ukraine-conflict-drone-footage-to-be-used-to-train-and-deploy-new-ai-models-for-autonomous-targeting-drone-swarms", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-23", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_WAR_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_076" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_SOUTH_KOREA_DRONE_WARRIORS_AI_SWARMS", "kind": "event", "title": "South Korea plans to train 500,000 drone operators and deploy tens of thousands of drones, including AI-based swarm systems, while avoiding Chinese components", "date": "2026-06-26", "source_date": "2026-06-26", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-expand-drone-forces-train-500000-operators-ministry-says-2026-06-26/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "South Korean Defense Ministry", "actors": [ "South Korean Defense Ministry" ], "actor_facets": [ "South Korea" ], "geography": [ "South Korea", "North Korea" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "Military AI/drone capability is moving into mass force-structure planning, not only elite lab projects.", "claim_challenged": "Plans were scaled down from 110,000 drones by 2029 to 60,000; targets remain procurement plans.", "summary": "Military AI/drone capability is moving into mass force-structure planning, not only elite lab projects.", "notes": "Adds allied country mass adoption; also supports anti-China supply-chain logic.", "corroboration_needed": "Need South Korean ministry plan and budget details.", "caveat": "Plans were scaled down from 110,000 drones by 2029 to 60,000; targets remain procurement plans.", "exact_quote_short": "train 500,000 'drone warriors'", "numbers": { "drone_operators_to_train": 500000, "original_drone_goal_2029": 110000, "revised_drone_goal": 60000, "drones_expected_2026": 11000, "low_cost_expendable_drones_gt": 20000 }, "money_status": "procurement_plan", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-expand-drone-forces-train-500000-operators-ministry-says-2026-06-26/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_WAR_004" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_RBI_AI_KILL_SWITCH_FINANCE", "kind": "event", "title": "RBI draft AI/ML model-risk framework adds kill-switch / decommissioning logic, independent validation and board accountability for banks", "date": "2026-06-24", "source_date": "2026-06-24", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/rbi-proposes-guidelines-banks-manage-ai-risks-2026-06-24/", "source_name": "Reuters / Economic Times", "source_type_raw": "wire_plus_financial_press", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Reserve Bank of India; banks and regulated entities", "actors": [ "Reserve Bank of India; banks and regulated entities" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks", "India" ], "geography": [ "India" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Financial AI is moving into formal model-risk governance: validation, board oversight, corrective controls and ability to limit/decommission models.", "claim_challenged": "Draft rule; implementation and actual kill-switch maturity remain unknown.", "summary": "Financial AI is moving into formal model-risk governance: validation, board oversight, corrective controls and ability to limit/decommission models.", "notes": "Good finance counter-control: institutions are not simply adopting AI; regulators are adding shutdown mechanisms.", "corroboration_needed": "Need RBI primary draft circular and later final rule.", "caveat": "Draft rule; implementation and actual kill-switch maturity remain unknown.", "exact_quote_short": "independent validation of all models", "numbers": { "public_feedback_deadline": "2026-07-24" }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Economic Times", "name": "Reuters / Economic Times", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/rbi-proposes-guidelines-banks-manage-ai-risks-2026-06-24/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_FIN_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_078" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MILITARY_AI_FRAMEWORK", "kind": "event", "title": "Decision-sovereignty framework: supplier models embedded in military workflows can influence operational boundary conditions; state-owned orchestration and model replaceability proposed as mitigation", "date": "2026-03-26", "source_date": "2026-03-26", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.20867", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Military-AI governance researchers", "actors": [ "Military-AI governance researchers" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "US", "NATO", "UK" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Supplier-induced boundary control is a credible strategic problem once private models enter military workflows.", "claim_challenged": "Architecture can mitigate dependency if routing, constraints, logging, escalation and action authorization remain state-owned.", "summary": "Supplier-induced boundary control is a credible strategic problem once private models enter military workflows.", "notes": "Useful theory/evidence bridge: turns Anthropic-Pentagon/Palantir cases into a general design problem.", "corroboration_needed": "Need peer review and procurement examples implementing replaceability.", "caveat": "Architecture can mitigate dependency if routing, constraints, logging, escalation and action authorization remain state-owned.", "exact_quote_short": "preservation of decision sovereignty", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.20867", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-26", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_DS_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_081" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PUBLIC_SUPPORT_MILITARY_AI_NINE_COUNTRIES", "kind": "event", "title": "Preregistered nine-country survey (n=9,000) finds publics conditionally permissive toward military AI, with unease concentrated around fully autonomous lethal force", "date": "2026-05-24", "source_date": "2026-05-24", "year": 2026, "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25196", "source_name": "arXiv", "source_type_raw": "academic_preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "actor": "Public opinion researchers", "actors": [ "Public opinion researchers" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "China", "Germany", "US", "nine-country sample" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Military AI adoption may face less categorical public resistance than expected, except for fully autonomous lethal force.", "claim_challenged": "Public legitimacy is scenario-dependent; opposition to autonomy can still constrain deployment.", "summary": "Military AI adoption may face less categorical public resistance than expected, except for fully autonomous lethal force.", "notes": "Good for governance/politics section: autonomy is the red line, not all military AI.", "corroboration_needed": "Peer review and country-specific crosstabs.", "caveat": "Public legitimacy is scenario-dependent; opposition to autonomy can still constrain deployment.", "exact_quote_short": "public opinion toward military AI appears conditionally permissive", "numbers": { "respondents": 9000, "countries": 9, "military_ai_scenarios": 6 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_preprint", "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25196", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-05-24", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_WAR_005" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "qualifies" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_DOJ_SUPERMICRO_2_5B_SMUGGLING", "kind": "event", "title": "DOJ (SDNY) indictment: Super Micro co-founder Liaw and two others charged with routing ~$2.5B of Nvidia-equipped AI servers to China via a SE Asian shell company; ~$510M moved within weeks", "date": "2026-03-19", "source_date": "2026-03-20", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317083/20260524/nvidia-ai-chip-smuggling-draws-taiwans-first-criminal-prosecution-jensen-huang-rebukes-supermicro.htm", "source_name": "DOJ (SDNY) indictment via Tom's Hardware / TechTimes / Reuters", "source_type_raw": "government_indictment_and_press", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "US/China", "actors": [ "US/China" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Transshipment leakage is material and large-scale; route runs US to Taiwan to SE Asia to mainland China with re-boxing and forged docs.", "claim_challenged": "Controls are not airtight: billions in restricted hardware moved before enforcement caught up.", "summary": "Transshipment leakage is material and large-scale; route runs US to Taiwan to SE Asia to mainland China with re-boxing and forged docs.", "notes": "Unsealed March 19-20 2026, Manhattan federal court. Methods: forged docs, dummy server shells to deceive auditors, hair-dryers to remove labels, serial-number manipulation. Reuters (Mar 27 2026): four Chinese universities (two PLA-linked) bought restricted Super Micro servers (Blackwell/Hopper). SMCI not a defendant; stock fell ~33% (~$6.5B mcap).", "corroboration_needed": "DOJ SDNY primary release URL; trial outcome. Indictment is an allegation; Liaw pled not guilty, Chang is a fugitive.", "caveat": "Controls are not airtight: billions in restricted hardware moved before enforcement caught up.", "exact_quote_short": "largest AI hardware export control prosecution in American history", "numbers": { "scheme_value_usd": 2500000000, "weeks_value_usd": 510000000, "defendants": 3, "max_prison_years": 20 }, "money_status": "alleged_smuggled_value", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported_indictment_allegation", "sources": [ { "title": "DOJ (SDNY) indictment via Tom's Hardware / TechTimes / Reuters", "name": "DOJ (SDNY) indictment via Tom's Hardware / TechTimes / Reuters", "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317083/20260524/nvidia-ai-chip-smuggling-draws-taiwans-first-criminal-prosecution-jensen-huang-rebukes-supermicro.htm", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_DOJ_ALX_SOLUTIONS_TRANSSHIPMENT", "kind": "event", "title": "DOJ: two Chinese nationals (ALX Solutions, El Monte CA) charged with exporting GPUs to China Oct 2022-Jul 2025 via Singapore/Malaysia freight forwarders; payments from HK/China", "date": "2025-08-04", "source_date": "2025-08-04", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-chinese-nationals-arrested-complaint-alleging-they-illegally-shipped-china-sensitive", "source_name": "U.S. DOJ (justice.gov)", "source_type_raw": "government", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "US/China", "actors": [ "US/China" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Singapore", "Malaysia", "Hong Kong", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Singapore and Malaysia are documented transshipment points used to conceal illegal shipments to China.", "claim_challenged": "Even small exporters route around controls; enforcement is reactive.", "summary": "Singapore and Malaysia are documented transshipment points used to conceal illegal shipments to China.", "notes": "Geng and Yang charged under ECRA. December 2024 shipment + 20+ prior to SG/MY; payments from HK/China. Chip described as the most powerful chip in the market (likely Nvidia H100). BIS + FBI investigating.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Even small exporters route around controls; enforcement is reactive.", "exact_quote_short": "commonly are used as transshipment points to conceal illegal shipments to China", "numbers": { "shipments_via_sg_my": 20, "ecra_max_prison_years": 20 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "U.S. DOJ (justice.gov)", "name": "U.S. DOJ (justice.gov)", "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-chinese-nationals-arrested-complaint-alleging-they-illegally-shipped-china-sensitive", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2025-08-04", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_DOJ_JANFORD_GPU_SMUGGLING", "kind": "event", "title": "DOJ indictment: Ho/Raymond/Li/Chen used Janford Realtor as a front to transship Nvidia GPUs to China via Malaysia/Thailand; 400 A100 exported, H100/H200 attempts disrupted; $3.89M wires from PRC", "date": "2025-11-19", "source_date": "2025-11-20", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-citizens-and-chinese-nationals-arrested-exporting-artificial-intelligence-technology", "source_name": "U.S. DOJ (justice.gov)", "source_type_raw": "government", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "US/China", "actors": [ "US/China" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Malaysia", "Thailand", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Organized conspiracies transship controlled GPUs via SE Asia using front companies and falsified paperwork.", "claim_challenged": "Some attempts succeed (400 A100 delivered) before others are disrupted.", "summary": "Organized conspiracies transship controlled GPUs via SE Asia using front companies and falsified paperwork.", "notes": "Indictment unsealed Nov 19-20 2025, conspiracy Sept 2023-Nov 2025. PRC AI-by-2030/military-modernization framing in the indictment.", "corroboration_needed": "Trial outcome.", "caveat": "Some attempts succeed (400 A100 delivered) before others are disrupted.", "exact_quote_short": "deliberate and deceptive effort to transship controlled NVIDIA GPUs to China by falsifying paperwork", "numbers": { "a100_exported": 400, "hpe_h100_supercomputers_attempted": 10, "h200_attempted": 50, "prc_wire_usd": 3890000 }, "money_status": "alleged_wire_value", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified_as_reported_indictment_allegation", "sources": [ { "title": "U.S. DOJ (justice.gov)", "name": "U.S. DOJ (justice.gov)", "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-citizens-and-chinese-nationals-arrested-exporting-artificial-intelligence-technology", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2025-11-20", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_TAIWAN_FIRST_CHIP_SMUGGLING_PROSECUTION", "kind": "event", "title": "Taiwan launches its first criminal prosecution for AI-chip smuggling (May 21 raids); transit/manufacturing hubs move from administrative restrictions to criminal fraud charges", "date": "2026-05-21", "source_date": "2026-05-24", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317083/20260524/nvidia-ai-chip-smuggling-draws-taiwans-first-criminal-prosecution-jensen-huang-rebukes-supermicro.htm", "source_name": "TechTimes / East Asia Forum / Tom's Hardware", "source_type_raw": "press_and_analysis", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Taiwan", "actors": [ "Taiwan" ], "actor_facets": [ "Taiwan" ], "geography": [ "Taiwan", "Singapore", "Malaysia", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "F" ], "claim_supported": "The enforcement layer is widening: transit/manufacturing hubs (Taiwan, Malaysia) are being folded into chip-control policing.", "claim_challenged": "These jurisdictions historically lacked enforcement infrastructure/will, so leakage was long under-policed.", "summary": "The enforcement layer is widening: transit/manufacturing hubs (Taiwan, Malaysia) are being folded into chip-control policing.", "notes": "Taiwan (Lai Ching-te) imposed export controls on Huawei and SMIC June 2025. Connects to the SDNY Super Micro indictment.", "corroboration_needed": "Taiwan prosecutor primary filings and outcomes.", "caveat": "These jurisdictions historically lacked enforcement infrastructure/will, so leakage was long under-policed.", "exact_quote_short": "have historically lacked the enforcement infrastructure or political will to rigorously monitor re-exports", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "TechTimes / East Asia Forum / Tom's Hardware", "name": "TechTimes / East Asia Forum / Tom's Hardware", "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317083/20260524/nvidia-ai-chip-smuggling-draws-taiwans-first-criminal-prosecution-jensen-huang-rebukes-supermicro.htm", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-05-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_DATACENTER_CANCELLATIONS_HARD_DATA", "kind": "event", "title": "Sightline Climate/Bloomberg: ~half of 2026 US data-center capacity delayed/cancelled (16 GW announced, ~5 GW under construction); Data Center Watch: 75+ projects / $130B blocked in Q1 2026", "date": "2026-04-19", "source_date": "2026-04-19", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/up-to-half-of-the-worlds-data-centers-may-be-delayed-this-year/", "source_name": "Sightline Climate / Bloomberg / Data Center Watch / Heatmap Pro / Baird", "source_type_raw": "industry_research_and_press", "source_type": "Industry / think tank", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "US", "actors": [ "US" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "F" ], "claim_supported": "Energy/grid and political constraints are materially binding on the AI buildout, not just rhetorical.", "claim_challenged": "Demand and capital remain high ($650B hyperscaler capex); the gap is physical/political, and efficiency may adapt.", "summary": "Energy/grid and political constraints are materially binding on the AI buildout, not just rhetorical.", "notes": "Causes: transformers 3-5yr, switchgear sold out through 2028, interconnection 3-7yr (VA/TX/GA), tariffs on Chinese components, community opposition (water, ~50% electricity price rise since 2019). Off-grid only ~3% of pipeline. Maine House voted 82-62 for a moratorium through 2027; Seattle 1-yr pause. Demand 80 GW (2025) -> 150 GW (2028).", "corroboration_needed": "Standardized project-level registry with status/capacity/jurisdiction/reason and primary local records.", "caveat": "Demand and capital remain high ($650B hyperscaler capex); the gap is physical/political, and efficiency may adapt.", "exact_quote_short": "only about 5 GW is actually under construction", "numbers": { "announced_2026_gw": 16, "under_construction_gw": 5, "delayed_cancelled_share_min": 0.3, "delayed_cancelled_share_max": 0.5, "q1_blocked_projects": 75, "q1_blocked_value_usd": 130000000000, "heatmap_q1_cancelled_projects": 20, "heatmap_q1_cancelled_value_usd": 41700000000, "cancellations_2023": 2, "cancellations_2024": 6, "cancellations_2025": 25, "transformer_lead_years_min": 3, "transformer_lead_years_max": 5, "interconnect_queue_years_max": 7 }, "money_status": "blocked_or_cancelled_project_value", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Sightline Climate / Bloomberg / Data Center Watch / Heatmap Pro / Baird", "name": "Sightline Climate / Bloomberg / Data Center Watch / Heatmap Pro / Baird", "url": "https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/up-to-half-of-the-worlds-data-centers-may-be-delayed-this-year/", "type": "Industry / think tank", "date": "2026-04-19", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2022_CHIPS_SCIENCE_ACT", "kind": "event", "title": "CHIPS and Science Act becomes Public Law 117-167, funding U.S. semiconductor production and science programs", "date": "2022-08-09", "source_date": "2022-08-09", "year": 2022, "url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346", "source_name": "Congress.gov", "source_type_raw": "government_legislation", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "U.S. Congress / U.S. Government", "actors": [ "U.S. Congress / U.S. Government" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Industrial policy for semiconductor supply chains precedes and complements export controls; the U.S. stack strategy is build-at-home plus deny/condition abroad.", "claim_challenged": "Funding authorization and law status do not equal deployed fabs or capacity.", "summary": "Industrial policy for semiconductor supply chains precedes and complements export controls; the U.S. stack strategy is build-at-home plus deny/condition abroad.", "notes": "Adds missing pre-export-control industrial-policy foundation to 2022.", "corroboration_needed": "For slide numbers, add CRS or Commerce breakdown of appropriations and tax credits.", "caveat": "Funding authorization and law status do not equal deployed fabs or capacity.", "exact_quote_short": "Became Public Law No: 117-167", "numbers": { "public_law": "117-167" }, "money_status": "allocated_budget_and_authorization", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Congress.gov", "name": "Congress.gov", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2022-08-09", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_001" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "sets_up" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2022_CHATGPT_LAUNCH", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI launches ChatGPT research preview", "date": "2022-11-30", "source_date": "2022-11-30", "year": 2022, "url": "https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/", "source_name": "OpenAI", "source_type_raw": "company_primary_blog", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI", "actors": [ "OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "The public deployment shock that turned foundation models from specialist infrastructure into a mass interface and triggered the 2023 governance/capex race.", "claim_challenged": "Consumer launch does not by itself prove structural state power; it is the demand/adoption trigger.", "summary": "The public deployment shock that turned foundation models from specialist infrastructure into a mass interface and triggered the 2023 governance/capex race.", "notes": "This belongs in 2022 because it explains why 2023 became dense. v0.12: tagged as cloud_inference because ChatGPT is a public hosted inference service, not just a model-release signal.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Consumer launch does not by itself prove structural state power; it is the demand/adoption trigger.", "exact_quote_short": "We’ve trained a model called ChatGPT which interacts in a conversational way", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "OpenAI", "name": "OpenAI", "url": "https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2022-11-30", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_004" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "triggers_capital_and_cloud_lockin" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2022_NVIDIA_A800_WORKAROUND", "kind": "event", "title": "Nvidia introduces A800, a China-focused export-control-compliant adaptation after October 2022 restrictions", "date": "2022-11-07", "source_date": "2022-11", "year": 2022, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-nvidia-offers-new-advanced-chip-china-that-meets-us-export-controls-2022-11-07/", "source_name": "Reuters / Nvidia reporting", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "Nvidia", "actors": [ "Nvidia" ], "actor_facets": [ "Nvidia" ], "geography": [ "US", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "security", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "security", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "The statement→workaround cycle starts immediately: chip controls produce compliant downgraded SKUs rather than a simple stop.", "claim_challenged": "Shows early leak/adaptation pattern; export controls shape product design but do not eliminate access.", "summary": "The statement→workaround cycle starts immediately: chip controls produce compliant downgraded SKUs rather than a simple stop.", "notes": "Important for the narrative arc: ban → workaround → later closure.", "corroboration_needed": "If Reuters URL is not accessible later, keep corroborating references from Nvidia filings or archived Reuters.", "caveat": "Shows early leak/adaptation pattern; export controls shape product design but do not eliminate access.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "product_workaround", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Nvidia reporting", "name": "Reuters / Nvidia reporting", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-nvidia-offers-new-advanced-chip-china-that-meets-us-export-controls-2022-11-07/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2022-11", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_002", "EDGE_2022_2023_003" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "produces_workaround", "closed_by" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_MICROSOFT_OPENAI_AZURE_LOCKIN", "kind": "event", "title": "Microsoft extends OpenAI partnership with multiyear, multibillion-dollar investment and exclusive Azure cloud role", "date": "2023-01-23", "source_date": "2023-01-23", "year": 2023, "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/23/microsoftandopenaiextendpartnership/", "source_name": "Microsoft Official Blog", "source_type_raw": "company_primary_blog", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Microsoft, OpenAI", "actors": [ "Microsoft, OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "Microsoft", "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "model_weights", "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "model_weights", "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Cloud and model power are structurally linked: OpenAI's frontier model development and deployment are routed through Azure supercomputing and commercialization.", "claim_challenged": "Company announcement does not disclose exact money amount; treat as multibillion-dollar partnership, not a precise $10B unless using secondary sources.", "summary": "Cloud and model power are structurally linked: OpenAI's frontier model development and deployment are routed through Azure supercomputing and commercialization.", "notes": "2023 cloud-model lock-in foundation.", "corroboration_needed": "Use secondary sources only if citing the ~$10B estimate.", "caveat": "Company announcement does not disclose exact money amount; treat as multibillion-dollar partnership, not a precise $10B unless using secondary sources.", "exact_quote_short": "multiyear, multibillion dollar investment", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "corporate_investment_announced", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Microsoft Official Blog", "name": "Microsoft Official Blog", "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/23/microsoftandopenaiextendpartnership/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2023-01-23", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_004" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "triggers_capital_and_cloud_lockin" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_NIST_AI_RMF_1_0", "kind": "event", "title": "NIST releases AI Risk Management Framework 1.0", "date": "2023-01-26", "source_date": "2023-01-26", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework", "source_name": "NIST", "source_type_raw": "government_standard_framework", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "NIST", "actors": [ "NIST" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Before hard model-control laws, the governance layer starts as voluntary risk management, trustworthiness and lifecycle practices.", "claim_challenged": "Voluntary framework is not binding law and cannot prove enforcement.", "summary": "Before hard model-control laws, the governance layer starts as voluntary risk management, trustworthiness and lifecycle practices.", "notes": "Good baseline for governance-before-law arc.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Voluntary framework is not binding law and cannot prove enforcement.", "exact_quote_short": "Released on January 26, 2023", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "NIST", "name": "NIST", "url": "https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2023-01-26", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_008" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_GPT4_RELEASE", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI releases GPT-4, framing it as a large multimodal model with benchmark-level professional performance", "date": "2023-03-14", "source_date": "2023-03-14", "year": 2023, "url": "https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-research/", "source_name": "OpenAI", "source_type_raw": "company_primary_blog", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI", "actors": [ "OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "GPT-4 turns the ChatGPT shock into a frontier-model race and strengthens the case that model capability itself becomes a strategic layer.", "claim_challenged": "Benchmark performance is not the same as safe or reliable deployment; OpenAI lists limitations and mitigations.", "summary": "GPT-4 turns the ChatGPT shock into a frontier-model race and strengthens the case that model capability itself becomes a strategic layer.", "notes": "Adds capability-escalation marker between ChatGPT and 2023 governance reactions.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Benchmark performance is not the same as safe or reliable deployment; OpenAI lists limitations and mitigations.", "exact_quote_short": "GPT‑4 is a large multimodal model", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "OpenAI", "name": "OpenAI", "url": "https://openai.com/index/gpt-4-research/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2023-03-14", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_005" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "accelerates_governance" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_CHINA_GALLIUM_GERMANIUM_CONTROLS", "kind": "event", "title": "China restricts gallium and germanium exports, creating the first major minerals counter-control in the chip war", "date": "2023-07-03", "source_date": "2023-07/2024-08", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-curbs-exports-strategic-minerals-2024-08-15/", "source_name": "Reuters", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "China Ministry of Commerce / Chinese government", "actors": [ "China Ministry of Commerce / Chinese government" ], "actor_facets": [ "China", "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "China", "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "China's counter-leverage begins before later rare-earth escalations: materials needed for high-tech chips become a retaliatory control layer.", "claim_challenged": "Reuters retrospective confirms timing but not full policy text; add MOFCOM primary for legal appendix.", "summary": "China's counter-leverage begins before later rare-earth escalations: materials needed for high-tech chips become a retaliatory control layer.", "notes": "Backfills China countermove into 2023.", "corroboration_needed": "Add MOFCOM primary announcement if final legal appendix needs Chinese source.", "caveat": "Reuters retrospective confirms timing but not full policy text; add MOFCOM primary for legal appendix.", "exact_quote_short": "from August 1, 2023, China restricted exports of gallium and germanium products", "numbers": { "effective_date": "2023-08-01" }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-curbs-exports-strategic-minerals-2024-08-15/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2023-07/2024-08", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_006" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "early_countermeasure" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_CHINA_GENAI_INTERIM_MEASURES", "kind": "event", "title": "China publishes Interim Measures for Generative AI Services, effective 15 August 2023", "date": "2023-07-13", "source_date": "2023-07-13", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.cac.gov.cn/2023-07/13/c_1690898327029107.htm", "source_name": "Cyberspace Administration of China", "source_type_raw": "government_regulation", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "CAC and six other Chinese agencies", "actors": [ "CAC and six other Chinese agencies" ], "actor_facets": [ "China" ], "geography": [ "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "China starts governing public-facing generative AI through content, data, algorithm filing/security assessment and state-supervised service rules.", "claim_challenged": "Domestic public-facing service rules do not equal frontier model parity.", "summary": "China starts governing public-facing generative AI through content, data, algorithm filing/security assessment and state-supervised service rules.", "notes": "Backfills China governance path: content/security/data controls at model-service layer.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Domestic public-facing service rules do not equal frontier model parity.", "exact_quote_short": "自2023年8月15日起施行", "numbers": { "effective_date": "2023-08-15" }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Cyberspace Administration of China", "name": "Cyberspace Administration of China", "url": "https://www.cac.gov.cn/2023-07/13/c_1690898327029107.htm", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2023-07-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_009" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_US_OUTBOUND_INVESTMENT_EO", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. Executive Order 14105 starts outbound-investment controls for China-related semiconductors, quantum and certain AI systems", "date": "2023-08-09", "source_date": "2023-08/2024-10", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-finalizes-rules-curb-ai-investments-china-impose-other-restrictions-2024-10-28/", "source_name": "Reuters / Treasury rule reporting", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. President / U.S. Treasury", "actors": [ "U.S. President / U.S. Treasury" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US", "China", "Hong Kong", "Macau" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3", "RQ1" ], "claim_supported": "Weaponized interdependence expands from exports to capital and know-how: U.S. investors become part of the control perimeter.", "claim_challenged": "Final implementing rules arrived later; the 2023 item is the executive-order launch, not full enforcement.", "summary": "Weaponized interdependence expands from exports to capital and know-how: U.S. investors become part of the control perimeter.", "notes": "Important finance-structure bridge in 2023.", "corroboration_needed": "Add Federal Register EO 14105 / Treasury primary for legal appendix.", "caveat": "Final implementing rules arrived later; the 2023 item is the executive-order launch, not full enforcement.", "exact_quote_short": "directed by an executive order signed by President Joe Biden in August 2023", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / Treasury rule reporting", "name": "Reuters / Treasury rule reporting", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/us-finalizes-rules-curb-ai-investments-china-impose-other-restrictions-2024-10-28/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2023-08/2024-10", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_AIXCC_LAUNCH", "kind": "event", "title": "DARPA launches AI Cyber Challenge (AIxCC) to build AI tools for securing critical software", "date": "2023-08-09", "source_date": "2023-08-09", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.axios.com/2023/08/09/darpa-cybersecurity-challenge-ai-tools", "source_name": "Axios reporting DARPA launch", "source_type_raw": "major_outlet", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "DARPA / U.S. Department of Defense", "actors": [ "DARPA / U.S. Department of Defense" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "The AI-cyber evidence arc begins in 2023, not 2025: the state explicitly funds autonomous cyber-reasoning systems for critical software defense.", "claim_challenged": "Launch is not performance evidence; results arrive in 2025.", "summary": "The AI-cyber evidence arc begins in 2023, not 2025: the state explicitly funds autonomous cyber-reasoning systems for critical software defense.", "notes": "Backfills AIxCC origin before AIxCC finals.", "corroboration_needed": "Add DARPA primary if accessible.", "caveat": "Launch is not performance evidence; results arrive in 2025.", "exact_quote_short": "$18.5 million investment", "numbers": { "initial_investment_usd": 18500000 }, "money_status": "prize_program_investment", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Axios reporting DARPA launch", "name": "Axios reporting DARPA launch", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2023/08/09/darpa-cybersecurity-challenge-ai-tools", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2023-08-09", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_007" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "sets_up" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_BIS_OCT_UPDATE_CLOSES_A800_H800", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. Commerce updates October 2022 controls, targeting AI-chip workarounds such as A800/H800 and foreign-subsidiary loopholes", "date": "2023-10-17", "source_date": "2023-10-17", "year": 2023, "url": "https://apnews.com/article/78225ba8d1609137e859f68a80f6e91e", "source_name": "Associated Press / U.S. Commerce reporting", "source_type_raw": "wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "U.S. Department of Commerce / BIS", "actors": [ "U.S. Department of Commerce / BIS" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Commerce / BIS" ], "geography": [ "US", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "The export-control story already has a 2023 statement→workaround→closure pattern: A800/H800-style compliance chips trigger a tightened rule.", "claim_challenged": "AP does not list all affected SKU thresholds; add BIS/Federal Register primary in legal appendix.", "summary": "The export-control story already has a 2023 statement→workaround→closure pattern: A800/H800-style compliance chips trigger a tightened rule.", "notes": "Fixes the visual gap between Oct 2022 controls and 2024/2025 expansions.", "corroboration_needed": "Add BIS final rule and Federal Register citation for exact thresholds.", "caveat": "AP does not list all affected SKU thresholds; add BIS/Federal Register primary in legal appendix.", "exact_quote_short": "updated and broadened its export controls", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Associated Press / U.S. Commerce reporting", "name": "Associated Press / U.S. Commerce reporting", "url": "https://apnews.com/article/78225ba8d1609137e859f68a80f6e91e", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2023-10-17", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_003" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "closed_by" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_G7_HIROSHIMA_CODE", "kind": "event", "title": "G7 Hiroshima Process publishes International Code of Conduct for organizations developing advanced AI systems", "date": "2023-10-30", "source_date": "2023-10-30", "year": 2023, "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/hiroshima-process-international-code-conduct-advanced-ai-systems", "source_name": "European Commission / G7 Hiroshima Process", "source_type_raw": "international_policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "G7 / European Commission", "actors": [ "G7 / European Commission" ], "actor_facets": [ "EU", "Multilateral institutions" ], "geography": [ "G7", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "International AI governance emerges around advanced/foundation models as a lifecycle code of conduct, before later harder national controls.", "claim_challenged": "Voluntary code; not binding law.", "summary": "International AI governance emerges around advanced/foundation models as a lifecycle code of conduct, before later harder national controls.", "notes": "Backfills international soft-law layer.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Voluntary code; not binding law.", "exact_quote_short": "voluntary guidance for actions by organizations developing the most advanced AI systems", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "European Commission / G7 Hiroshima Process", "name": "European Commission / G7 Hiroshima Process", "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/hiroshima-process-international-code-conduct-advanced-ai-systems", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2023-10-30", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_US_AI_EO_14110", "kind": "event", "title": "U.S. Executive Order 14110 on safe, secure and trustworthy AI is signed", "date": "2023-10-30", "source_date": "2023-11-01", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/01/2023-24283/safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence", "source_name": "Federal Register / Executive Office of the President", "source_type_raw": "government_executive_order", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "U.S. President / Executive Office of the President", "actors": [ "U.S. President / Executive Office of the President" ], "actor_facets": [ "US" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "decision_support_cognition", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "The U.S. governance layer explicitly recognizes AI risks to national security, biotechnology, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, competition, privacy and civil rights.", "claim_challenged": "EO 14110 was later revoked in 2025; use as historical governance marker, not current law.", "summary": "The U.S. governance layer explicitly recognizes AI risks to national security, biotechnology, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, competition, privacy and civil rights.", "notes": "Backfills U.S. federal AI governance shock.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "EO 14110 was later revoked in 2025; use as historical governance marker, not current law.", "exact_quote_short": "AI's most pressing security risks—including with respect to biotechnology, cybersecurity, critical infrastructure", "numbers": { "federal_register_citation": "88 FR 75191", "eo": "14110" }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Federal Register / Executive Office of the President", "name": "Federal Register / Executive Office of the President", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/01/2023-24283/safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2023-11-01", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_005" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "accelerates_governance" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_BLETCHLEY_DECLARATION", "kind": "event", "title": "Bletchley Declaration: countries at AI Safety Summit agree frontier AI poses cybersecurity, biotechnology, disinformation and control risks", "date": "2023-11-01", "source_date": "2023-11-01/2025-02", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-2-november-2023", "source_name": "UK Government / AI Safety Summit", "source_type_raw": "international_policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "AI Safety Summit participants", "actors": [ "AI Safety Summit participants" ], "actor_facets": [ "Multilateral institutions", "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "UK", "US", "China", "EU", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "cyber_security_patch" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Frontier AI becomes an international security-governance object, including cyber, biotech, disinformation and control risks.", "claim_challenged": "Declaration is non-binding and broad; not a deployed control mechanism.", "summary": "Frontier AI becomes an international security-governance object, including cyber, biotech, disinformation and control risks.", "notes": "Backfills international governance arc and China-at-table context.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Declaration is non-binding and broad; not a deployed control mechanism.", "exact_quote_short": "frontier AI ... risks in domains such as cybersecurity and biotechnology", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "UK Government / AI Safety Summit", "name": "UK Government / AI Safety Summit", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-2-november-2023", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2023-11-01/2025-02", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_010" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_EU_AI_ACT_PROVISIONAL_AGREEMENT", "kind": "event", "title": "Council and European Parliament reach provisional agreement on the EU AI Act, including GPAI/foundation-model rules", "date": "2023-12-09", "source_date": "2023-12-09", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/12/09/artificial-intelligence-act-council-and-parliament-strike-a-deal-on-the-first-worldwide-rules-for-ai/", "source_name": "Council of the European Union", "source_type_raw": "government_policy_press_release", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Council of the EU / European Parliament", "actors": [ "Council of the EU / European Parliament" ], "actor_facets": [ "EU", "Multilateral institutions" ], "geography": [ "EU" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "The EU path becomes risk-based market governance, including general-purpose/foundation model obligations and an EU-level AI Office.", "claim_challenged": "Provisional agreement was not final law; final adoption occurred in 2024.", "summary": "The EU path becomes risk-based market governance, including general-purpose/foundation model obligations and an EU-level AI Office.", "notes": "Backfills EU governance arc before 2024 adoption.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Provisional agreement was not final law; final adoption occurred in 2024.", "exact_quote_short": "first legislative proposal of its kind in the world", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Council of the European Union", "name": "Council of the European Union", "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/12/09/artificial-intelligence-act-council-and-parliament-strike-a-deal-on-the-first-worldwide-rules-for-ai/", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2023-12-09", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_CLAUDE_3_FAMILY_RELEASE", "kind": "event", "title": "Anthropic releases Claude 3 family with Opus and Sonnet generally available in Claude.ai and API", "date": "2024-03-04", "source_date": "2024-03-04", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-family", "source_name": "Introducing the next generation of Claude", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Anthropic", "actors": [ "Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ1" ], "claim_supported": "Claude 3 is a major 2024 closed frontier-model access event; it helps fill the model_weights 2024 gap and supports the access-as-power frame through API/product distribution.", "claim_challenged": "Use as model-access milestone, not as evidence of structural control by itself.", "summary": "Claude 3 is a major 2024 closed frontier-model access event; it helps fill the model_weights 2024 gap and supports the access-as-power frame through API/product distribution.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Claude 3 is a major 2024 closed frontier-model access event; it helps fill the model_weights 2024 gap and supports the access-as-power frame through API/product distribution.", "corroboration_needed": "Use as model-access milestone, not as evidence of structural control by itself.", "caveat": "Use as model-access milestone, not as evidence of structural control by itself.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Introducing the next generation of Claude", "name": "Introducing the next generation of Claude", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-family", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-03-04", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_GROK1_OPEN_WEIGHTS", "kind": "event", "title": "xAI releases Grok-1 weights and architecture", "date": "2024-03-17", "source_date": "2024-03-17", "year": 2024, "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-os", "source_name": "Open Release of Grok-1", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "xAI", "actors": [ "xAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "xAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "xAI released base model weights and architecture for a 314B-parameter MoE model, useful for the open-weight exit/dependence arc.", "claim_challenged": "Open release does not imply training-data openness or freedom from compute/cloud constraints.", "summary": "xAI released base model weights and architecture for a 314B-parameter MoE model, useful for the open-weight exit/dependence arc.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: xAI released base model weights and architecture for a 314B-parameter MoE model, useful for the open-weight exit/dependence arc.", "corroboration_needed": "Open release does not imply training-data openness or freedom from compute/cloud constraints.", "caveat": "Open release does not imply training-data openness or freedom from compute/cloud constraints.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Open Release of Grok-1", "name": "Open Release of Grok-1", "url": "https://x.ai/news/grok-os", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-03-17", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_004" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_GPT4O_RELEASE_AND_FREE_ACCESS", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI releases GPT-4o as a flagship multimodal model", "date": "2024-05-13", "source_date": "2024-05-13", "year": 2024, "url": "https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/", "source_name": "Hello GPT-4o", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI", "actors": [ "OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ1", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "GPT-4o is a major 2024 model-access event: frontier multimodal capability moved into a broad product surface.", "claim_challenged": "Frame as access expansion and product distribution, not as geopolitical control by itself.", "summary": "GPT-4o is a major 2024 model-access event: frontier multimodal capability moved into a broad product surface.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: GPT-4o is a major 2024 model-access event: frontier multimodal capability moved into a broad product surface.", "corroboration_needed": "Frame as access expansion and product distribution, not as geopolitical control by itself.", "caveat": "Frame as access expansion and product distribution, not as geopolitical control by itself.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Hello GPT-4o", "name": "Hello GPT-4o", "url": "https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-05-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_005" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_CLAUDE_35_SONNET", "kind": "event", "title": "Anthropic launches Claude 3.5 Sonnet", "date": "2024-06-21", "source_date": "2024-06-21", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-5-sonnet", "source_name": "Introducing Claude 3.5 Sonnet", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Anthropic", "actors": [ "Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ1" ], "claim_supported": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet is a significant 2024 frontier-model upgrade and should probably appear as a model_weights event if the heatmap tracks capability/access chronology.", "claim_challenged": "Not a control event unless linked to later safety/access mechanisms.", "summary": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet is a significant 2024 frontier-model upgrade and should probably appear as a model_weights event if the heatmap tracks capability/access chronology.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Claude 3.5 Sonnet is a significant 2024 frontier-model upgrade and should probably appear as a model_weights event if the heatmap tracks capability/access chronology.", "corroboration_needed": "Not a control event unless linked to later safety/access mechanisms.", "caveat": "Not a control event unless linked to later safety/access mechanisms.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Introducing Claude 3.5 Sonnet", "name": "Introducing Claude 3.5 Sonnet", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-5-sonnet", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-06-21", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_006" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_LLAMA31_405B_OPENLY_AVAILABLE", "kind": "event", "title": "Meta releases Llama 3.1 405B as an openly available foundation model", "date": "2024-07-23", "source_date": "2024-07-23", "year": 2024, "url": "https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3-1/", "source_name": "Introducing Llama 3.1: Our most capable models to date", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Meta", "actors": [ "Meta" ], "actor_facets": [ "Meta" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "Llama 3.1 405B is one of the strongest 2024 events for the open-weight counter-stack / exit option theme.", "claim_challenged": "Openly available weights are not the same as open training data, open compute, or sovereign end-to-end capability.", "summary": "Llama 3.1 405B is one of the strongest 2024 events for the open-weight counter-stack / exit option theme.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Llama 3.1 405B is one of the strongest 2024 events for the open-weight counter-stack / exit option theme.", "corroboration_needed": "Openly available weights are not the same as open training data, open compute, or sovereign end-to-end capability.", "caveat": "Openly available weights are not the same as open training data, open compute, or sovereign end-to-end capability.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Introducing Llama 3.1: Our most capable models to date", "name": "Introducing Llama 3.1: Our most capable models to date", "url": "https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3-1/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-07-23", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_001" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_GEMINI15_LONG_CONTEXT", "kind": "event", "title": "Google announces Gemini 1.5 with long-context multimodal capability", "date": "2024-02-15", "source_date": "2024-02-15", "year": 2024, "url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/google-gemini-next-generation-model-february-2024/", "source_name": "Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Google", "actors": [ "Google" ], "actor_facets": [ "Google" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ1" ], "claim_supported": "Gemini 1.5 is a major model_weights 2024 event because context-window and serving architecture become part of the access/capability layer.", "claim_challenged": "Do not overstate production availability on announcement day; note early testing / rollout status.", "summary": "Gemini 1.5 is a major model_weights 2024 event because context-window and serving architecture become part of the access/capability layer.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Gemini 1.5 is a major model_weights 2024 event because context-window and serving architecture become part of the access/capability layer.", "corroboration_needed": "Do not overstate production availability on announcement day; note early testing / rollout status.", "caveat": "Do not overstate production availability on announcement day; note early testing / rollout status.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5", "name": "Our next-generation model: Gemini 1.5", "url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/products/google-gemini-next-generation-model-february-2024/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-02-15", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" }, { "title": "Gemini API release notes", "name": "Gemini API release notes", "url": "https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/changelog", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-06-27", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_DEEPSEEK_R1_OPEN_SOURCE_RELEASE", "kind": "event", "title": "DeepSeek releases R1 with open-source model and distilled models", "date": "2025-01-20", "source_date": "2025-01-20", "year": 2025, "url": "https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news250120", "source_name": "DeepSeek-R1 Release", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "DeepSeek", "actors": [ "DeepSeek" ], "actor_facets": [ "DeepSeek" ], "geography": [ "China", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "DeepSeek-R1 is essential for the 2025 model_weights gap and for the counter-stack/open-weight arc: a Chinese open model is framed as comparable to OpenAI-o1 by the developer.", "claim_challenged": "Keep performance claims as developer-reported unless independently benchmarked; open model does not solve compute dependency.", "summary": "DeepSeek-R1 is essential for the 2025 model_weights gap and for the counter-stack/open-weight arc: a Chinese open model is framed as comparable to OpenAI-o1 by the developer.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: DeepSeek-R1 is essential for the 2025 model_weights gap and for the counter-stack/open-weight arc: a Chinese open model is framed as comparable to OpenAI-o1 by the developer.", "corroboration_needed": "Keep performance claims as developer-reported unless independently benchmarked; open model does not solve compute dependency.", "caveat": "Keep performance claims as developer-reported unless independently benchmarked; open model does not solve compute dependency.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "DeepSeek-R1 Release", "name": "DeepSeek-R1 Release", "url": "https://api-docs.deepseek.com/news/news250120", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-01-20", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_002" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_GEMINI25_PRO", "kind": "event", "title": "Google launches Gemini 2.5 Pro as a thinking model", "date": "2025-03-25", "source_date": "2025-03-25", "year": 2025, "url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/google-deepmind/gemini-model-thinking-updates-march-2025/", "source_name": "Gemini 2.5: Our most intelligent AI model", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Google", "actors": [ "Google" ], "actor_facets": [ "Google" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ1" ], "claim_supported": "Gemini 2.5 Pro is a significant 2025 frontier-model access event through AI Studio, Gemini app and later Vertex AI.", "claim_challenged": "Treat capability claims as vendor claims unless paired with external benchmarks.", "summary": "Gemini 2.5 Pro is a significant 2025 frontier-model access event through AI Studio, Gemini app and later Vertex AI.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Gemini 2.5 Pro is a significant 2025 frontier-model access event through AI Studio, Gemini app and later Vertex AI.", "corroboration_needed": "Treat capability claims as vendor claims unless paired with external benchmarks.", "caveat": "Treat capability claims as vendor claims unless paired with external benchmarks.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Gemini 2.5: Our most intelligent AI model", "name": "Gemini 2.5: Our most intelligent AI model", "url": "https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/google-deepmind/gemini-model-thinking-updates-march-2025/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-03-25", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_O3_O4_MINI", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI releases o3 and o4-mini reasoning models", "date": "2025-04-16", "source_date": "2025-04-16", "year": 2025, "url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/", "source_name": "Introducing OpenAI o3 and o4-mini", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI", "actors": [ "OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "The o3/o4-mini release fills a 2025 model_weights gap and supports the shift from chatbot models toward reasoning/tool-using systems.", "claim_challenged": "Do not treat model release as evidence of autonomous decision sovereignty without deployment context.", "summary": "The o3/o4-mini release fills a 2025 model_weights gap and supports the shift from chatbot models toward reasoning/tool-using systems.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: The o3/o4-mini release fills a 2025 model_weights gap and supports the shift from chatbot models toward reasoning/tool-using systems.", "corroboration_needed": "Do not treat model release as evidence of autonomous decision sovereignty without deployment context.", "caveat": "Do not treat model release as evidence of autonomous decision sovereignty without deployment context.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Introducing OpenAI o3 and o4-mini", "name": "Introducing OpenAI o3 and o4-mini", "url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-04-16", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_007" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_LLAMA4_SCOUT_MAVERICK", "kind": "event", "title": "Meta introduces Llama 4 Scout and Maverick open-weight multimodal models", "date": "2025-04-05", "source_date": "2025-04-05", "year": 2025, "url": "https://ai.meta.com/blog/llama-4-multimodal-intelligence/", "source_name": "The Llama 4 herd", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Meta", "actors": [ "Meta" ], "actor_facets": [ "Meta" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2" ], "claim_supported": "Llama 4 extends the open-weight line into natively multimodal MoE models with long-context positioning.", "claim_challenged": "Keep 'open-weight' distinct from fully open-source; verify license constraints before publication.", "summary": "Llama 4 extends the open-weight line into natively multimodal MoE models with long-context positioning.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Llama 4 extends the open-weight line into natively multimodal MoE models with long-context positioning.", "corroboration_needed": "Keep 'open-weight' distinct from fully open-source; verify license constraints before publication.", "caveat": "Keep 'open-weight' distinct from fully open-source; verify license constraints before publication.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "The Llama 4 herd", "name": "The Llama 4 herd", "url": "https://ai.meta.com/blog/llama-4-multimodal-intelligence/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-04-05", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_003" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_AMAZON_ANTHROPIC_4B_COMPLETION", "kind": "event", "title": "Amazon completes $4B Anthropic investment, reinforcing Claude-on-AWS/Bedrock distribution", "date": "2024-03-27", "source_date": "2024-03-27", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-anthropic-ai-investment", "source_name": "Amazon completes $4B Anthropic investment", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Amazon / AWS, Anthropic", "actors": [ "Amazon / AWS", "Anthropic", "Amazon / AWS, Anthropic" ], "actor_facets": [ "Amazon / AWS", "Anthropic" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ1", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "A strong 2024 cloud/finance backfill: Anthropic capital and model distribution are tied to AWS/Bedrock access channels.", "claim_challenged": "Separate the March 2024 completion from later November 2024 expanded Amazon investment if both are used.", "summary": "A strong 2024 cloud/finance backfill: Anthropic capital and model distribution are tied to AWS/Bedrock access channels.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: A strong 2024 cloud/finance backfill: Anthropic capital and model distribution are tied to AWS/Bedrock access channels.", "corroboration_needed": "Separate the March 2024 completion from later November 2024 expanded Amazon investment if both are used.", "caveat": "Separate the March 2024 completion from later November 2024 expanded Amazon investment if both are used.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "announced_or_reported_capital", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Amazon completes $4B Anthropic investment", "name": "Amazon completes $4B Anthropic investment", "url": "https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-anthropic-ai-investment", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-03-27", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_016" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_OPENAI_ORACLE_OCI_CAPACITY", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI selects Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to extend Microsoft Azure AI capacity", "date": "2024-06-11", "source_date": "2024-06-11", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/openai-selects-oracle-cloud-infrastructure-to-extend-microsoft-azure-ai-platform-2024-06-11/", "source_name": "OpenAI Selects Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to Extend Microsoft Azure AI Platform", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI, Oracle, Microsoft", "actors": [ "OpenAI", "Oracle", "Microsoft", "OpenAI, Oracle, Microsoft" ], "actor_facets": [ "Microsoft", "OpenAI", "Oracle" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "OpenAI capacity expands beyond Azure through OCI while still framed as extending the Microsoft Azure AI platform; this is a clean cloud-inference/control-capacity event for 2024.", "claim_challenged": "Use as capacity-extension / multi-cloud dependency, not as a complete break from Azure lock-in.", "summary": "OpenAI capacity expands beyond Azure through OCI while still framed as extending the Microsoft Azure AI platform; this is a clean cloud-inference/control-capacity event for 2024.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: OpenAI capacity expands beyond Azure through OCI while still framed as extending the Microsoft Azure AI platform; this is a clean cloud-inference/control-capacity event for 2024.", "corroboration_needed": "Use as capacity-extension / multi-cloud dependency, not as a complete break from Azure lock-in.", "caveat": "Use as capacity-extension / multi-cloud dependency, not as a complete break from Azure lock-in.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "not_money_claim", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "OpenAI Selects Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to Extend Microsoft Azure AI Platform", "name": "OpenAI Selects Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to Extend Microsoft Azure AI Platform", "url": "https://www.oracle.com/news/announcement/openai-selects-oracle-cloud-infrastructure-to-extend-microsoft-azure-ai-platform-2024-06-11/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-06-11", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_017" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_XAI_SERIES_B_6B", "kind": "event", "title": "xAI raises $6B Series B to scale AI systems and infrastructure", "date": "2024-05-26", "source_date": "2024-05-26", "year": 2024, "url": "https://x.ai/news/series-b", "source_name": "Series B funding round", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "xAI", "actors": [ "xAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "xAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Potential finance_rent 2024 backfill showing the capital intensity of frontier AI buildout outside the Microsoft/OpenAI and Amazon/Anthropic axes.", "claim_challenged": "Fundraising alone is weaker than a specific compute contract; mark as supporting capital concentration, not operational capacity.", "summary": "Potential finance_rent 2024 backfill showing the capital intensity of frontier AI buildout outside the Microsoft/OpenAI and Amazon/Anthropic axes.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Potential finance_rent 2024 backfill showing the capital intensity of frontier AI buildout outside the Microsoft/OpenAI and Amazon/Anthropic axes.", "corroboration_needed": "Fundraising alone is weaker than a specific compute contract; mark as supporting capital concentration, not operational capacity.", "caveat": "Fundraising alone is weaker than a specific compute contract; mark as supporting capital concentration, not operational capacity.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "announced_or_reported_capital", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Series B funding round", "name": "Series B funding round", "url": "https://x.ai/news/series-b", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-05-26", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_018" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_REDDIT_GOOGLE_DATA_API", "kind": "event", "title": "Google and Reddit expand partnership with access to Reddit Data API", "date": "2024-02-22", "source_date": "2024-02-22", "year": 2024, "url": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-announcements/expanded-reddit-partnership/", "source_name": "An expanded partnership with Reddit", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Google, Reddit", "actors": [ "Google", "Reddit", "Google, Reddit" ], "actor_facets": [ "Google", "Reddit" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "A key data-layer event: public platform data becomes programmatic, structured and real-time input for search/AI products.", "claim_challenged": "The often-cited $60M/year figure is press-reported; official Google/Reddit posts confirm API access but not price.", "summary": "A key data-layer event: public platform data becomes programmatic, structured and real-time input for search/AI products.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: A key data-layer event: public platform data becomes programmatic, structured and real-time input for search/AI products.", "corroboration_needed": "The often-cited $60M/year figure is press-reported; official Google/Reddit posts confirm API access but not price.", "caveat": "The often-cited $60M/year figure is press-reported; official Google/Reddit posts confirm API access but not price.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "An expanded partnership with Reddit", "name": "An expanded partnership with Reddit", "url": "https://blog.google/company-news/inside-google/company-announcements/expanded-reddit-partnership/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-02-22", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" }, { "title": "Expanding our Partnership with Google", "name": "Expanding our Partnership with Google", "url": "https://redditinc.com/news/reddit-and-google-expand-partnership", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-02-22", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_013" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_AP_OPENAI_ARCHIVE_LICENSE", "kind": "event", "title": "Associated Press and OpenAI reach news archive/content-sharing agreement", "date": "2023-07-13", "source_date": "2023-07-13", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.ap.org/media-center/press-releases/2023/ap-open-ai-agree-to-share-select-news-content-and-technology-in-new-collaboration/", "source_name": "AP, OpenAI agree to share select news content and technology in new collaboration", "source_type_raw": "Press / wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI, Associated Press", "actors": [ "OpenAI", "Associated Press", "OpenAI, Associated Press" ], "actor_facets": [ "Associated Press", "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "One of the earliest formal publisher-content AI deals and a useful 2023 data_telemetry backfill.", "claim_challenged": "Financial terms were not disclosed; do not infer deal value.", "summary": "One of the earliest formal publisher-content AI deals and a useful 2023 data_telemetry backfill.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: One of the earliest formal publisher-content AI deals and a useful 2023 data_telemetry backfill.", "corroboration_needed": "Financial terms were not disclosed; do not infer deal value.", "caveat": "Financial terms were not disclosed; do not infer deal value.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "AP, OpenAI agree to share select news content and technology in new collaboration", "name": "AP, OpenAI agree to share select news content and technology in new collaboration", "url": "https://www.ap.org/media-center/press-releases/2023/ap-open-ai-agree-to-share-select-news-content-and-technology-in-new-collaboration/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2023-07-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_012" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_OPENAI_STACK_OVERFLOW_API", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI and Stack Overflow announce API partnership for technical knowledge", "date": "2024-05-06", "source_date": "2024-05-06", "year": 2024, "url": "https://openai.com/index/api-partnership-with-stack-overflow/", "source_name": "API Partnership with Stack Overflow", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI, Stack Overflow", "actors": [ "OpenAI", "Stack Overflow", "OpenAI, Stack Overflow" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI", "Stack Overflow" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ4" ], "claim_supported": "A specialized data-layer event: vetted technical Q&A data becomes an input/distribution surface for AI developer tools.", "claim_challenged": "Use as access to structured/vetted technical knowledge, not proof of broad model performance gains.", "summary": "A specialized data-layer event: vetted technical Q&A data becomes an input/distribution surface for AI developer tools.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: A specialized data-layer event: vetted technical Q&A data becomes an input/distribution surface for AI developer tools.", "corroboration_needed": "Use as access to structured/vetted technical knowledge, not proof of broad model performance gains.", "caveat": "Use as access to structured/vetted technical knowledge, not proof of broad model performance gains.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "API Partnership with Stack Overflow", "name": "API Partnership with Stack Overflow", "url": "https://openai.com/index/api-partnership-with-stack-overflow/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-05-06", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_014" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_NEWS_CORP_OPENAI_PARTNERSHIP", "kind": "event", "title": "News Corp and OpenAI sign multi-year global content partnership", "date": "2024-05-22", "source_date": "2024-05-22", "year": 2024, "url": "https://investors.newscorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/news-corp-and-openai-sign-landmark-multi-year-global-partnership", "source_name": "News Corp and OpenAI Sign Landmark Multi-Year Global Partnership", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI, News Corp", "actors": [ "OpenAI", "News Corp", "OpenAI, News Corp" ], "actor_facets": [ "News Corp", "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "UK", "Australia", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry", "finance_rent", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "data_telemetry", "finance_rent", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ4", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Major publisher-content licensing event: premium journalism becomes a negotiated model/input layer rather than scrape-only substrate.", "claim_challenged": "Official release does not give dollar value; press estimates should be kept separate if used.", "summary": "Major publisher-content licensing event: premium journalism becomes a negotiated model/input layer rather than scrape-only substrate.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Major publisher-content licensing event: premium journalism becomes a negotiated model/input layer rather than scrape-only substrate.", "corroboration_needed": "Official release does not give dollar value; press estimates should be kept separate if used.", "caveat": "Official release does not give dollar value; press estimates should be kept separate if used.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "announced_or_reported_capital", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "News Corp and OpenAI Sign Landmark Multi-Year Global Partnership", "name": "News Corp and OpenAI Sign Landmark Multi-Year Global Partnership", "url": "https://investors.newscorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/news-corp-and-openai-sign-landmark-multi-year-global-partnership", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-05-22", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_015" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_OPENAI_STATE_THREAT_ACTORS_DISRUPTION", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI and Microsoft disrupt state-affiliated actors using AI services for malicious cyber activity", "date": "2024-02-14", "source_date": "2024-02-14", "year": 2024, "url": "https://openai.com/index/disrupting-malicious-uses-of-ai-by-state-affiliated-threat-actors/", "source_name": "Disrupting malicious uses of AI by state-affiliated threat actors", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI, Microsoft", "actors": [ "OpenAI", "Microsoft", "OpenAI, Microsoft" ], "actor_facets": [ "Microsoft", "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US", "China", "Iran", "North Korea", "Russia" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Strong 2024 cyber/control event: model providers become detection and account-termination chokepoints for cyber misuse.", "claim_challenged": "OpenAI states the observed uses were in support of malicious cyber activity; do not overclaim autonomous offensive capability.", "summary": "Strong 2024 cyber/control event: model providers become detection and account-termination chokepoints for cyber misuse.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Strong 2024 cyber/control event: model providers become detection and account-termination chokepoints for cyber misuse.", "corroboration_needed": "OpenAI states the observed uses were in support of malicious cyber activity; do not overclaim autonomous offensive capability.", "caveat": "OpenAI states the observed uses were in support of malicious cyber activity; do not overclaim autonomous offensive capability.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Disrupting malicious uses of AI by state-affiliated threat actors", "name": "Disrupting malicious uses of AI by state-affiliated threat actors", "url": "https://openai.com/index/disrupting-malicious-uses-of-ai-by-state-affiliated-threat-actors/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-02-14", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_008" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_GOOGLE_PROJECT_NAPTIME", "kind": "event", "title": "Google Project Zero publishes Project Naptime for LLM-assisted vulnerability research", "date": "2024-06-20", "source_date": "2024-06-20", "year": 2024, "url": "https://projectzero.google/2024/06/project-naptime.html", "source_name": "Project Naptime: Evaluating Offensive Security Capabilities of Large Language Models", "source_type_raw": "Research / preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Google, Project Zero", "actors": [ "Google", "Project Zero", "Google, Project Zero" ], "actor_facets": [ "Google" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "Useful 2024 precursor to Big Sleep: LLM-assisted vulnerability research is framed as iterative, tool-using, reproducible analysis.", "claim_challenged": "Research architecture, not proven large-scale operational deployment.", "summary": "Useful 2024 precursor to Big Sleep: LLM-assisted vulnerability research is framed as iterative, tool-using, reproducible analysis.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: Useful 2024 precursor to Big Sleep: LLM-assisted vulnerability research is framed as iterative, tool-using, reproducible analysis.", "corroboration_needed": "Research architecture, not proven large-scale operational deployment.", "caveat": "Research architecture, not proven large-scale operational deployment.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Project Naptime: Evaluating Offensive Security Capabilities of Large Language Models", "name": "Project Naptime: Evaluating Offensive Security Capabilities of Large Language Models", "url": "https://projectzero.google/2024/06/project-naptime.html", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2024-06-20", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_009" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_GOOGLE_BIG_SLEEP_SQLITE", "kind": "event", "title": "Google Big Sleep agent finds exploitable SQLite vulnerability before release", "date": "2024-10-31", "source_date": "2024-10-31", "year": 2024, "url": "https://projectzero.google/2024/10/from-naptime-to-big-sleep.html", "source_name": "From Naptime to Big Sleep: Using Large Language Models To Catch Vulnerabilities In Real-World Code", "source_type_raw": "Research / preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Google, Project Zero, Google DeepMind", "actors": [ "Google", "Project Zero", "Google DeepMind", "Google, Project Zero, Google DeepMind" ], "actor_facets": [ "Google" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "This is the cleanest 2024 defensive find-and-fix milestone for the cyber layer and should probably be added before the 2025 AIxCC final evidence.", "claim_challenged": "It supports defensive vulnerability discovery; it should not be used as proof of autonomous offensive exploitation.", "summary": "This is the cleanest 2024 defensive find-and-fix milestone for the cyber layer and should probably be added before the 2025 AIxCC final evidence.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: This is the cleanest 2024 defensive find-and-fix milestone for the cyber layer and should probably be added before the 2025 AIxCC final evidence.", "corroboration_needed": "It supports defensive vulnerability discovery; it should not be used as proof of autonomous offensive exploitation.", "caveat": "It supports defensive vulnerability discovery; it should not be used as proof of autonomous offensive exploitation.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "From Naptime to Big Sleep: Using Large Language Models To Catch Vulnerabilities In Real-World Code", "name": "From Naptime to Big Sleep: Using Large Language Models To Catch Vulnerabilities In Real-World Code", "url": "https://projectzero.google/2024/10/from-naptime-to-big-sleep.html", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2024-10-31", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_010" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_AIXCC_SEMIFINAL", "kind": "event", "title": "DARPA AI Cyber Challenge semifinal culminates at DEF CON 32", "date": "2024-08-11", "source_date": "2024-08-11", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.darpa.mil/news/2024/ai-cyber-challenge-cybersecurity", "source_name": "DARPA AI Cyber Challenge Proves Promise of AI-Driven Cybersecurity", "source_type_raw": "Government / policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "DARPA, AIxCC teams", "actors": [ "DARPA", "AIxCC teams", "DARPA, AIxCC teams" ], "actor_facets": [ "US", "US Defense" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "decision_support_cognition" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ5" ], "claim_supported": "The 2024 semifinal is a missing bridge between the 2023 AIxCC launch and 2025 final results.", "claim_challenged": "Use semifinal as program/progress signal, not final efficacy evidence.", "summary": "The 2024 semifinal is a missing bridge between the 2023 AIxCC launch and 2025 final results.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: The 2024 semifinal is a missing bridge between the 2023 AIxCC launch and 2025 final results.", "corroboration_needed": "Use semifinal as program/progress signal, not final efficacy evidence.", "caveat": "Use semifinal as program/progress signal, not final efficacy evidence.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "DARPA AI Cyber Challenge Proves Promise of AI-Driven Cybersecurity", "name": "DARPA AI Cyber Challenge Proves Promise of AI-Driven Cybersecurity", "url": "https://www.darpa.mil/news/2024/ai-cyber-challenge-cybersecurity", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2024-08-11", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_011" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_EU_AI_ACT_ENTERS_FORCE_GPAI", "kind": "event", "title": "EU AI Act enters into force, starting the timeline for GPAI/model obligations", "date": "2024-08-01", "source_date": "2024-08-01", "year": 2024, "url": "https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/ai-act-enters-force-2024-08-01_en", "source_name": "AI Act enters into force", "source_type_raw": "Government / policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "European Commission, EU", "actors": [ "European Commission", "EU", "European Commission, EU" ], "actor_facets": [ "EU" ], "geography": [ "EU" ], "stack_layer": [ "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ2", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "The 2024 final legal entry point is missing: model/foundation-model obligations become a timed compliance layer rather than provisional negotiation only.", "claim_challenged": "Most obligations phase in later; do not describe 1 Aug 2024 as full applicability.", "summary": "The 2024 final legal entry point is missing: model/foundation-model obligations become a timed compliance layer rather than provisional negotiation only.", "notes": "v0.11 heatmap backfill: The 2024 final legal entry point is missing: model/foundation-model obligations become a timed compliance layer rather than provisional negotiation only.", "corroboration_needed": "Most obligations phase in later; do not describe 1 Aug 2024 as full applicability.", "caveat": "Most obligations phase in later; do not describe 1 Aug 2024 as full applicability.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "AI Act enters into force", "name": "AI Act enters into force", "url": "https://commission.europa.eu/news-and-media/news/ai-act-enters-force-2024-08-01_en", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2024-08-01", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" }, { "title": "AI Act regulatory framework", "name": "AI Act regulatory framework", "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/regulatory-framework-ai", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2024-08-01", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [], "arcIds": [], "relationTypes": [] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_EU_INVESTAI_200B_MOBILIZATION", "kind": "event", "title": "EU launched InvestAI to mobilise €200B, including €20B for AI gigafactories", "date": "2025-02-11", "source_date": "2025-02-11", "year": 2025, "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/eu-launches-investai-initiative-mobilise-eu200-billion-investment-artificial-intelligence", "source_name": "European Commission", "source_type_raw": "Government / policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "European Commission", "actors": [ "European Commission", "EU" ], "actor_facets": [ "EU" ], "geography": [ "EU" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ3", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Europe is not absent from AI capital, but its visible signal is a public-private mobilization and gigafactory policy instrument, not the same accounting class as US private AI investment.", "claim_challenged": "Do not count the €200B as already deployed capital.", "summary": "Europe is not absent from AI capital, but its visible signal is a public-private mobilization and gigafactory policy instrument, not the same accounting class as US private AI investment.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Do not count the €200B as already deployed capital.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "eu_investai_mobilization_eur_billion": 200, "ai_gigafactory_fund_eur_billion": 20 }, "money_status": "announced_mobilization_not_deployed_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "European Commission", "name": "European Commission", "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/eu-launches-investai-initiative-mobilise-eu200-billion-investment-artificial-intelligence", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2025-02-11", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2025_EU_INVESTAI_200B_MOBILIZATION_CAPITAL" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_UAE_MGX_100B_AI_STATE_VEHICLE", "kind": "event", "title": "Abu Dhabi launched MGX as an AI investment vehicle backed by Mubadala and G42", "date": "2024-03-13", "source_date": "2024-03-13", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.mubadala.com/en/news/abu-dhabi-launches-comprehensive-global-investment-strategy-on-artificial-intelligence", "source_name": "Mubadala", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Mubadala, G42, Abu Dhabi", "actors": [ "Mubadala", "G42", "MGX", "UAE", "Mubadala, G42, Abu Dhabi" ], "actor_facets": [ "G42" ], "geography": [ "UAE", "Gulf" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Gulf AI capital is better represented as sovereign/infrastructure vehicle capital than as private AI venture investment.", "claim_challenged": "Treat $100B+ MGX figures as target/AUM/reporting context unless a committed-deployed amount is sourced.", "summary": "Gulf AI capital is better represented as sovereign/infrastructure vehicle capital than as private AI venture investment.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Treat $100B+ MGX figures as target/AUM/reporting context unless a committed-deployed amount is sourced.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "reported_target_aum_usd_billion": 100 }, "money_status": "vehicle_target_or_aum_not_deployed_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Mubadala", "name": "Mubadala", "url": "https://www.mubadala.com/en/news/abu-dhabi-launches-comprehensive-global-investment-strategy-on-artificial-intelligence", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-03-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2024_UAE_MGX_100B_AI_STATE_VEHICLE_CAPITAL" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_SAUDI_40B_AI_FUND_REPORTED", "kind": "event", "title": "Saudi Arabia was reported to be planning a roughly $40B AI investment fund", "date": "2024-03-19", "source_date": "2024-03-19", "year": 2024, "url": "https://atolltimes.mv/post/world/7949", "source_name": "Reuters / NYT report mirrored by Atoll Times", "source_type_raw": "Press / wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Saudi PIF, Andreessen Horowitz", "actors": [ "Saudi Arabia", "PIF", "Andreessen Horowitz", "Saudi PIF, Andreessen Horowitz" ], "actor_facets": [ "Saudi Arabia" ], "geography": [ "Saudi Arabia", "Gulf" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Gulf capital should be shown as a separate state/sovereign mode in the capital map.", "claim_challenged": "Reported talks, not a completed fund or deployed AI spend.", "summary": "Gulf capital should be shown as a separate state/sovereign mode in the capital map.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Reported talks, not a completed fund or deployed AI spend.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "reported_fund_size_usd_billion": 40 }, "money_status": "reported_planned_fund_not_committed_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "reported_unconfirmed", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters / NYT report mirrored by Atoll Times", "name": "Reuters / NYT report mirrored by Atoll Times", "url": "https://atolltimes.mv/post/world/7949", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2024-03-19", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2024_SAUDI_40B_AI_FUND_REPORTED_CAPITAL" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI closed a $40B funding round led by SoftBank at a reported $300B valuation", "date": "2025-03-31", "source_date": "2025-03-31", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/business/money-report/openai-closes-40-billion-funding-round-largest-private-tech-deal-on-record/3832288/", "source_name": "CNBC / NBC Bay Area", "source_type_raw": "Press / wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI, SoftBank", "actors": [ "OpenAI", "SoftBank", "OpenAI, SoftBank" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks", "OpenAI", "SoftBank" ], "geography": [ "US", "Japan", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "production", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "production", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Frontier-model firms increasingly function as capital-concentration vehicles tied to infrastructure access.", "claim_challenged": "Funding round size is not the same as spent compute or deployed capacity.", "summary": "Frontier-model firms increasingly function as capital-concentration vehicles tied to infrastructure access.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Funding round size is not the same as spent compute or deployed capacity.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "round_usd_billion": 40, "reported_post_money_valuation_usd_billion": 300 }, "money_status": "funding_round_not_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "CNBC / NBC Bay Area", "name": "CNBC / NBC Bay Area", "url": "https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/business/money-report/openai-closes-40-billion-funding-round-largest-private-tech-deal-on-record/3832288/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-03-31", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND_CAPITAL" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E", "kind": "event", "title": "Anthropic raised $3.5B Series E at a $61.5B post-money valuation", "date": "2025-03-03", "source_date": "2025-03-03", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-e-at-usd61-5b-post-money-valuation", "source_name": "Anthropic", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Anthropic, Lightspeed", "actors": [ "Anthropic", "Lightspeed", "Anthropic, Lightspeed" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "model_weights", "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge", "production" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge", "production" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ2", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "The model layer is financed as a high-valuation capital market object, reinforcing access and capacity dependencies.", "claim_challenged": "Primary company source; valuation is financing evidence, not independent proof of market power.", "summary": "The model layer is financed as a high-valuation capital market object, reinforcing access and capacity dependencies.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Primary company source; valuation is financing evidence, not independent proof of market power.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "round_usd_billion": 3.5, "post_money_valuation_usd_billion": 61.5 }, "money_status": "funding_round_not_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Anthropic", "name": "Anthropic", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-e-at-usd61-5b-post-money-valuation", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-03-03", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E_CAPITAL" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_COREWEAVE_OPENAI_11_9B_CAPACITY", "kind": "event", "title": "CoreWeave announced an OpenAI AI-infrastructure deal with contract value up to $11.9B", "date": "2025-03-10", "source_date": "2025-03-10", "year": 2025, "url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2025/CoreWeave-Announces-Agreement-with-OpenAI-to-Deliver-AI-Infrastructure/default.aspx", "source_name": "CoreWeave", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "CoreWeave, OpenAI", "actors": [ "CoreWeave", "OpenAI", "CoreWeave, OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference", "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "cloud_inference", "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production", "finance" ], "strange_structures": [ "production", "finance" ], "research_question": [ "RQ1", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Capital concentration converts into contracted compute capacity and vendor dependency, not just balance-sheet valuation.", "claim_challenged": "“Up to” contract value; do not treat as fully consumed capacity.", "summary": "Capital concentration converts into contracted compute capacity and vendor dependency, not just balance-sheet valuation.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "“Up to” contract value; do not treat as fully consumed capacity.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "contract_value_up_to_usd_billion": 11.9 }, "money_status": "contract_ceiling_not_realized_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "CoreWeave", "name": "CoreWeave", "url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2025/CoreWeave-Announces-Agreement-with-OpenAI-to-Deliver-AI-Infrastructure/default.aspx", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-03-10", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2025_COREWEAVE_OPENAI_11_9B_CAPACITY_CAPITAL" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_MICROSOFT_WORK_TREND_AI_USAGE", "kind": "event", "title": "Microsoft/LinkedIn Work Trend Index reported 75% of knowledge workers using AI at work", "date": "2024-05-08", "source_date": "2024-05-08", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/ai-at-work-is-here-now-comes-the-hard-part", "source_name": "Microsoft WorkLab", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Microsoft, LinkedIn", "actors": [ "Microsoft", "LinkedIn", "Microsoft, LinkedIn" ], "actor_facets": [ "Microsoft" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "data_telemetry" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law", "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Decision-support adoption was already broad in 2024 and should not appear as an empty layer before 2026.", "claim_challenged": "Survey and vendor framing; useful as adoption signal, not proof of decision sovereignty loss.", "summary": "Decision-support adoption was already broad in 2024 and should not appear as an empty layer before 2026.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Survey and vendor framing; useful as adoption signal, not proof of decision sovereignty loss.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "knowledge_workers_using_ai_percent": 75, "ai_users_bringing_own_ai_percent": 78, "survey_respondents": 31000 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Microsoft WorkLab", "name": "Microsoft WorkLab", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/worklab/work-trend-index/ai-at-work-is-here-now-comes-the-hard-part", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2024-05-08", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2024_MICROSOFT_WORK_TREND_AI_USAGE_DECISION" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_MCKINSEY_STATE_OF_AI_ADOPTION", "kind": "event", "title": "McKinsey State of AI reported regular AI use in 88% of surveyed organizations and broad agent experimentation", "date": "2025-11-05", "source_date": "2025-11-05", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai", "source_name": "McKinsey", "source_type_raw": "Industry / think tank", "source_type": "Industry / think tank", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "McKinsey", "actors": [ "McKinsey" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "By late 2025, enterprise AI adoption was mainstream enough to treat decision-support as a live organizational layer.", "claim_challenged": "Survey does not show high-stakes autonomy; it shows organizational diffusion.", "summary": "By late 2025, enterprise AI adoption was mainstream enough to treat decision-support as a live organizational layer.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Survey does not show high-stakes autonomy; it shows organizational diffusion.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "organizations_regular_ai_use_percent": 88, "organizations_experimenting_with_ai_agents_percent": 62, "organizations_scaling_agentic_systems_percent": 23 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "McKinsey", "name": "McKinsey", "url": "https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai", "type": "Industry / think tank", "date": "2025-11-05", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2025_MCKINSEY_STATE_OF_AI_ADOPTION_DECISION" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2023_MORGAN_STANLEY_GPT4_ASSISTANT", "kind": "event", "title": "Morgan Stanley announced an OpenAI GPT-4 assistant for financial-advisor knowledge work", "date": "2023-03-14", "source_date": "2023-03-14", "year": 2023, "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/press-releases/key-milestone-in-innovation-journey-with-openai", "source_name": "Morgan Stanley", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Morgan Stanley, OpenAI", "actors": [ "Morgan Stanley", "OpenAI", "Morgan Stanley, OpenAI" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks", "OpenAI" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent", "data_telemetry" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent", "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ6" ], "claim_supported": "Financial decision-support adoption begins early: regulated institutions used LLMs as knowledge/navigation interfaces, not just chat demos.", "claim_challenged": "Assistant for advisors is not autonomous trading or portfolio decision authority.", "summary": "Financial decision-support adoption begins early: regulated institutions used LLMs as knowledge/navigation interfaces, not just chat demos.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Assistant for advisors is not autonomous trading or portfolio decision authority.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": {}, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Morgan Stanley", "name": "Morgan Stanley", "url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/press-releases/key-milestone-in-innovation-journey-with-openai", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2023-03-14", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2023_MORGAN_STANLEY_GPT4_ASSISTANT_DECISION" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_JPMORGAN_LLM_SUITE_ENTERPRISE", "kind": "event", "title": "JPMorgan rolled out LLM Suite internally, reported initially for 60,000 employees and later much wider access", "date": "2024-08-09", "source_date": "2024-08-09", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-generative-ai-adoption-llm-suite-2024-11", "source_name": "Business Insider", "source_type_raw": "Press / wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "JPMorgan Chase", "actors": [ "JPMorgan", "Financial regulators / banks", "JPMorgan Chase" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks" ], "geography": [ "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance", "knowledge", "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "finance", "knowledge", "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ4", "RQ6", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Finance-sector adoption turns LLMs into governed internal work layers: access, auditability, internal policy and productivity all matter.", "claim_challenged": "Press-reported rollout numbers vary; keep as adoption signal rather than precise census.", "summary": "Finance-sector adoption turns LLMs into governed internal work layers: access, auditability, internal policy and productivity all matter.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Press-reported rollout numbers vary; keep as adoption signal rather than precise census.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "initially_reported_employee_access": 60000, "later_reported_employee_access": 200000 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Business Insider", "name": "Business Insider", "url": "https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-generative-ai-adoption-llm-suite-2024-11", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2024-08-09", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2024_JPMORGAN_LLM_SUITE_ENTERPRISE_DECISION" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_CLAUDE_ORCHESTRATED_ESPIONAGE", "kind": "event", "title": "Anthropic disclosed a Claude Code AI-orchestrated cyber-espionage campaign by GTG-1002", "date": "2025-11-13", "source_date": "2025-11-13", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/disrupting-AI-espionage", "source_name": "Anthropic Threat Intelligence", "source_type_raw": "Company / vendor", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Anthropic, GTG-1002", "actors": [ "Anthropic", "GTG-1002", "China-nexus actor", "Anthropic, GTG-1002" ], "actor_facets": [ "Anthropic", "China", "US" ], "geography": [ "Global", "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "strange_structures": [ "security", "knowledge" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ4", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "Cyber autonomy can no longer be framed as only defensive lab capability: public reporting describes AI orchestration across intrusion phases.", "claim_challenged": "Anthropic/MITRE still imply human direction and review; this is not proof of unrestricted autonomous offense at strategic scale.", "summary": "Cyber autonomy can no longer be framed as only defensive lab capability: public reporting describes AI orchestration across intrusion phases.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Anthropic/MITRE still imply human direction and review; this is not proof of unrestricted autonomous offense at strategic scale.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "approximate_targets": 30, "operation_date_month": "2025-09" }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Anthropic Threat Intelligence", "name": "Anthropic Threat Intelligence", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/disrupting-AI-espionage", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-11-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2025_CLAUDE_ORCHESTRATED_ESPIONAGE_CYBER" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_but_limits" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_LLM_CVE_PUBLIC_POC_MIGRATION", "kind": "event", "title": "Local UPS audit found 15/129 strict LLM/AI-attributed CVEs with public PoC, but only 3/129 heavy weaponization", "date": "2026-06-29", "source_date": "2026-06-29", "year": 2026, "url": "https://poc-in-github.motikan2010.net/", "source_name": "PoC-in-GitHub + local UPS audit", "source_type_raw": "Research / preprint", "source_type": "Research / preprint", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "PoC-in-GitHub, UPS corpus", "actors": [ "PoC-in-GitHub", "Research teams", "PoC-in-GitHub, UPS corpus" ], "actor_facets": [ "Research teams", "US" ], "geography": [ "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "There is an early public-PoC migration signal around LLM/AI-attributed CVEs: broad PoC visibility is materially larger than narrow heavy weaponization.", "claim_challenged": "Attribution to LLM discovery remains sparse and manual; public PoC does not equal exploitation in the wild.", "summary": "There is an early public-PoC migration signal around LLM/AI-attributed CVEs: broad PoC visibility is materially larger than narrow heavy weaponization.", "notes": "Source audit file: ups_llm_vulnerability_attribution_scan_2026_06_29.json and ups_llm_weaponization_poc_audit_2026_06_29.json.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Attribution to LLM discovery remains sparse and manual; public PoC does not equal exploitation in the wild.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "strict_external_llm_ai_cves": 129, "public_poc_any": 15, "public_poc_any_ratio_percent": 11.6, "public_poc_plus_exploited_catalog_or_framework": 3, "heavy_weaponization_ratio_percent": 2.3 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "PoC-in-GitHub + local UPS audit", "name": "PoC-in-GitHub + local UPS audit", "url": "https://poc-in-github.motikan2010.net/", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-06-29", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2026_LLM_CVE_PUBLIC_POC_MIGRATION_CYBER" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_but_limits" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_WINDOWS_DEFENDER_WEAPONIZATION_CLUSTER", "kind": "event", "title": "Microsoft Defender / Windows weaponization cluster: BlueHammer, RedSun, UnDefend and related public PoCs", "date": "2026-06-29", "source_date": "2026-06-29", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.huntress.com/blog/nightmare-eclipse-intrusion", "source_name": "Huntress / local UPS audit", "source_type_raw": "Industry / think tank", "source_type": "Industry / think tank", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Nightmare Eclipse, Microsoft Defender ecosystem", "actors": [ "Microsoft", "Nightmare Eclipse", "Security researchers", "Nightmare Eclipse, Microsoft Defender ecosystem" ], "actor_facets": [ "Microsoft", "Research teams" ], "geography": [ "Global", "US" ], "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "cyber_security_patch", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "strange_structures": [ "security" ], "research_question": [ "RQ5", "RQ3" ], "claim_supported": "The patch layer faces an operationally expensive early weaponization trend: public Defender/Windows LPE tools can become incident-response pressure, even if not LLM-attributed.", "claim_challenged": "Does not change 3/129 strict LLM-heavy-weaponization count, because these CVEs are not in the strict LLM/AI attribution set. It does add a separate high-value Microsoft Defender weaponization cluster: at least CVE-2026-33825, CVE-2026-41091, and CVE-2026-45498 are UPS exploited-catalog signals; 33825 and 41091 have direct PoC-in-GitHub entries.", "summary": "The patch layer faces an operationally expensive early weaponization trend: public Defender/Windows LPE tools can become incident-response pressure, even if not LLM-attributed.", "notes": "Keep separate from strict LLM-discovery denominator; include as broader Windows/Defender public-weaponization cluster.", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Does not change 3/129 strict LLM-heavy-weaponization count, because these CVEs are not in the strict LLM/AI attribution set. It does add a separate high-value Microsoft Defender weaponization cluster: at least CVE-2026-33825, CVE-2026-41091, and CVE-2026-45498 are UPS exploited-catalog signals; 33825 and 41091 have direct PoC-in-GitHub entries.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "related_cluster_items": 8, "direct_public_poc_examples": 2, "exploited_catalog_examples": 3 }, "money_status": "", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "partially_verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Huntress / local UPS audit", "name": "Huntress / local UPS audit", "url": "https://www.huntress.com/blog/nightmare-eclipse-intrusion", "type": "Industry / think tank", "date": "2026-06-29", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V012_2026_WINDOWS_DEFENDER_WEAPONIZATION_CLUSTER_CYBER" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_STARGATE_US_500B_PLEDGE", "kind": "event", "title": "OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle/MGX announced Stargate: up to $500B over four years, with $100B initial deployment", "date": "2025-01-21", "source_date": "2025-01-21", "year": 2025, "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/", "source_name": "OpenAI", "source_type_raw": "company_announcement", "source_type": "Company / vendor", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, MGX", "actors": [ "OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, MGX" ], "actor_facets": [ "Financial regulators / banks", "OpenAI", "Oracle", "SoftBank" ], "geography": [ "US", "Global" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [], "strange_structures": [], "research_question": [], "claim_supported": "Stargate is a top-tier example of AI capital as infrastructure pledge and access-capacity politics.", "claim_challenged": "Label as pledge/intention, not committed capital or already spent money.", "summary": "Stargate is a top-tier example of AI capital as infrastructure pledge and access-capacity politics.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Label as pledge/intention, not committed capital or already spent money.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "announced_intention_usd_billion": 500, "initial_deployment_usd_billion": 100, "horizon_years": 4 }, "money_status": "pledge_not_committed_capital", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified_as_announcement", "sources": [ { "title": "OpenAI", "name": "OpenAI", "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/", "type": "Company / vendor", "date": "2025-01-21", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V013_STARGATE_PLEDGE_TO_ACCESS" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_CHINA_NATIONAL_VC_GUIDANCE_FUND_138B", "kind": "event", "title": "China announced a national venture-capital guidance fund expected to mobilize about $138B over 20 years for hard tech including AI and quantum", "date": "2025-03-06", "source_date": "2025-03-06", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-set-up-national-venture-capital-guidance-fund-state-planner-says-2025-03-06/", "source_name": "Reuters / CGTN", "source_type_raw": "press_wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "China NDRC / state planner", "actors": [ "China NDRC / state planner" ], "actor_facets": [ "China" ], "geography": [ "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [], "strange_structures": [], "research_question": [], "claim_supported": "China state-capital channels are larger than private-investment figures imply and should be shown as a separate accounting regime.", "claim_challenged": "This is a guidance/mobilization fund over a long horizon, not already spent AI capital.", "summary": "China state-capital channels are larger than private-investment figures imply and should be shown as a separate accounting regime.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "This is a guidance/mobilization fund over a long horizon, not already spent AI capital.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "expected_mobilization_usd_billion": 138, "expected_horizon_years": 20 }, "money_status": "state_guidance_fund_target_not_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "China to set up national venture capital guidance fund, state planner says", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-set-up-national-venture-capital-guidance-fund-state-planner-says-2025-03-06/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-03-06", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "China to establish national venture capital fund to drive innovation", "name": "CGTN", "url": "https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-03-06/China-to-establish-national-venture-capital-guidance-fund-1BwkEUZci1a/index.html", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-03-06", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V013_CHINA_138B_FUND_TO_CORE" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2026_CHINA_AI_DC_295B_PLAN_REPORTED", "kind": "event", "title": "Reuters relayed Bloomberg reporting that China is preparing a roughly $295B nationwide AI data-center buildout plan", "date": "2026-06-09", "source_date": "2026-06-09", "year": 2026, "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-fund-nationwide-ai-buildout-bloomberg-news-2026-06-09/", "source_name": "Reuters reporting Bloomberg", "source_type_raw": "press_wire", "source_type": "Press / wire", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "actor": "China NDRC, state telecom operators", "actors": [ "China NDRC, state telecom operators" ], "actor_facets": [ "China" ], "geography": [ "China" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [], "strange_structures": [], "research_question": [], "claim_supported": "The Chinese counter-stack is not only model releases: it includes reported state-backed AI data-center infrastructure planning.", "claim_challenged": "Await primary policy text; keep as reported/unconfirmed and do not add to spent capital.", "summary": "The Chinese counter-stack is not only model releases: it includes reported state-backed AI data-center infrastructure planning.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Await primary policy text; keep as reported/unconfirmed and do not add to spent capital.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "reported_plan_usd_billion": 295, "reported_horizon_years": 5 }, "money_status": "reported_plan_not_deployed_spend", "confidence": "C", "evidence_level": "C", "status": "reported_unconfirmed", "sources": [ { "title": "Reuters reporting Bloomberg", "name": "Reuters reporting Bloomberg", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-prepares-295-billion-plan-fund-nationwide-ai-buildout-bloomberg-news-2026-06-09/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-09", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V013_CHINA_295B_DC_TO_CONTROL" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2025_FRANCE_AI_109B_MOBILIZATION", "kind": "event", "title": "France announced €109B of AI investment mobilization around the AI Action Summit", "date": "2025-02-11", "source_date": "2025-02-11", "year": 2025, "url": "https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/11/make-france-an-ai-powerhouse", "source_name": "Élysée", "source_type_raw": "government_policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "France, Élysée, private investors", "actors": [ "France, Élysée, private investors" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "France", "EU" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [], "strange_structures": [], "research_question": [], "claim_supported": "Europe is not absent from AI capital, but its visible signal is mobilization/industrial policy rather than the same accounting class as US annual private investment.", "claim_challenged": "Treat as mobilized capital, not public money already spent.", "summary": "Europe is not absent from AI capital, but its visible signal is mobilization/industrial policy rather than the same accounting class as US annual private investment.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Treat as mobilized capital, not public money already spent.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "announced_mobilization_eur_billion": 109, "workbook_usd_billion_at_1_14": 124.26 }, "money_status": "mobilization_not_deployed_spend", "confidence": "B", "evidence_level": "B", "status": "verified_as_announcement", "sources": [ { "title": "Élysée", "name": "Élysée", "url": "https://www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-macron/2025/02/11/make-france-an-ai-powerhouse", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2025-02-11", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V013_FRANCE_109B_TO_CORE" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_CANADA_2_4B_AI_COMMITMENT", "kind": "event", "title": "Canada announced a C$2.4B AI package focused on compute access, adoption and safety", "date": "2024-04-07", "source_date": "2024-04-07", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2024/04/07/securing-canadas-ai-advantage", "source_name": "Prime Minister of Canada", "source_type_raw": "government_policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Government of Canada", "actors": [ "Government of Canada" ], "actor_facets": [], "geography": [ "Canada" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [], "strange_structures": [], "research_question": [], "claim_supported": "The \"all others\" bucket contains real but smaller public AI programs that do not match US/China/Gulf scale.", "claim_challenged": "Workbook stores this as USD 2.4B; source currency is Canadian dollars, so keep the conversion caveat visible.", "summary": "The \"all others\" bucket contains real but smaller public AI programs that do not match US/China/Gulf scale.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Workbook stores this as USD 2.4B; source currency is Canadian dollars, so keep the conversion caveat visible.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "package_cad_billion": 2.4, "workbook_usd_billion": 2.4 }, "money_status": "public_program_announced", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Prime Minister of Canada", "name": "Prime Minister of Canada", "url": "https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2024/04/07/securing-canadas-ai-advantage", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2024-04-07", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V013_CANADA_AI_TO_ACCESS" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] }, { "id": "SIG_2024_INDIAAI_MISSION_1_25B", "kind": "event", "title": "India approved the IndiaAI Mission, a public AI program recorded in the workbook as about $1.25B", "date": "2024-03-07", "source_date": "2024-03-07", "year": 2024, "url": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2012375", "source_name": "Government of India PIB", "source_type_raw": "government_policy", "source_type": "Government / policy", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "actor": "Government of India", "actors": [ "Government of India" ], "actor_facets": [ "India" ], "geography": [ "India" ], "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "stack_layers": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "governance_law", "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [], "strange_structures": [], "research_question": [], "claim_supported": "India has a public AI mission, but its scale remains in a different class from US private investment, Chinese state guidance and Gulf sovereign programs.", "claim_challenged": "Useful for the all-others ledger, not evidence of full-stack sovereignty.", "summary": "India has a public AI mission, but its scale remains in a different class from US private investment, Chinese state guidance and Gulf sovereign programs.", "notes": "", "corroboration_needed": "", "caveat": "Useful for the all-others ledger, not evidence of full-stack sovereignty.", "exact_quote_short": "", "numbers": { "approved_budget_inr_crore": 10371.92, "workbook_usd_billion": 1.25 }, "money_status": "public_program_announced", "confidence": "A", "evidence_level": "A", "status": "verified", "sources": [ { "title": "Government of India PIB", "name": "Government of India PIB", "url": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2012375", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2024-03-07", "primary_or_secondary": "primary" } ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_V013_INDIAAI_TO_ACCESS" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope" ] } ], "claims": [ { "id": "scale-01", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "US vs China private AI investment", "claim": "US private AI investment reached $285.9B in 2025 versus China's $12.4B, roughly a 23x gap; in 2024 the figures were $109.1B vs $9.3B.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "money_status": "private_investment", "sources": [ { "title": "The 2026 AI Index Report", "name": "The 2026 AI Index Report", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "The 2025 AI Index Report", "name": "The 2025 AI Index Report", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2025-ai-index-report", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-04-07", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2024-2025", "caveats": [ "Private investment only; excludes Chinese state guidance funds", "Stanford itself notes the figure likely understates China total spending" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "On private capital, the US dwarfs China — about $285.9B vs $12.4B in 2025 (Stanford AI Index 2026) — but Stanford cautions this understates China, whose state guidance funds are invisible to private-investment databases.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "По частному капиталу США кратно опережают Китай — около $285.9 млрд против $12.4 млрд в 2025 (Stanford AI Index 2026), но сам Стэнфорд оговаривает, что цифра занижает Китай: государственные guidance-фонды не видны в базах частных инвестиций.", "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "investment", "concentration", "Stanford AI Index" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "US vs China private AI investment", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "scale-02", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "China state guidance funds", "claim": "Chinese government guidance funds deployed an estimated $184B into AI firms between 2000 and 2023, with a further $138B state VC fund announced in 2025.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "money_status": "allocated_estimate_plus_pledge", "sources": [ { "title": "Economy | 2026 AI Index Report", "name": "Economy | 2026 AI Index Report", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Economy | 2026 AI Index Report (guidance funds $184B into AI)", "name": "Economy | 2026 AI Index Report (guidance funds $184B into AI)", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2000-2025", "caveats": [ "Estimated deployment, not audited", "CORRECTION: the ~$912B guidance-fund figure widely quoted is across ALL industries 2000-2023; the AI-specific figure is ~$184B (AI Index 2026 Economy chapter). Do not state $912B as AI investment.", "Mixes cumulative deployment with a newly announced fund" ], "corrections": [ "Use ~$184B for AI-specific guidance-fund deployment; reserve ~$912B for all-industry context only", "Mark guidance-fund figures as estimates; separate cumulative from new 2025 fund" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Comparing only private investment is misleading: Stanford estimates Chinese guidance funds channelled ~$184B into AI firms (2000-2023), with a ~$138B state VC fund announced in 2025 — so total mobilised capital is far larger than headline private figures.", "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "guidance funds", "state capital" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "China state guidance funds", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "China" ] }, { "id": "scale-03", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Hyperscaler capex", "claim": "The four largest US hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) plan roughly $725B combined capex in 2026, up ~77% from ~$410B in 2025, with most tied to AI infrastructure.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "capex_plan", "sources": [ { "title": "Tech AI spending may approach $700 billion this year", "name": "Tech AI spending may approach $700 billion this year", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/google-microsoft-meta-amazon-ai-cash.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-02-06", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Hyperscaler capex trend", "name": "Hyperscaler capex trend", "url": "https://epoch.ai/data-insights/hyperscaler-capex-trend", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-01-01", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Guidance, not realised spend; estimates vary $630B-$725B by source and whether Oracle is included", "Companies define capex differently (finance leases etc.)" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The four biggest US hyperscalers guided toward roughly $600-725B of combined 2026 capex — up ~77% from ~$410B in 2025 — the bulk of it AI infrastructure (Epoch AI; CNBC).", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Четыре крупнейших американских гиперскейлера ориентируют рынок примерно на $600-725 млрд совокупного capex в 2026 (рост ~77% к ~$410 млрд в 2025), основная часть — AI-инфраструктура (Epoch AI; CNBC). Это план затрат, а не подтверждённый факт расхода.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "capex", "hyperscalers", "compute" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Hyperscaler capex", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "scale-04", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Stargate", "claim": "The Stargate Project announced a $500B, 10GW AI-infrastructure commitment in January 2025 (OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle/MGX), with $100B to begin immediately.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "pledge", "sources": [ { "title": "Announcing The Stargate Project", "name": "Announcing The Stargate Project", "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-01-21", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Stargate stalls (The Information via The Decoder)", "name": "Stargate stalls (The Information via The Decoder)", "url": "https://the-decoder.com/stargates-500-billion-ai-infrastructure-project-reportedly-stalls-over-unresolved-disputes-between-openai-oracle-and-softbank/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "$500B is an announced intention over 4 years, not committed capital", "Bloomberg (Aug 2025) reported no funds raised initially; reporting of disputes/stalls; OpenAI claims ~$400-450B committed by late 2025 is vendor framing" ], "corrections": [ "Label $500B as a pledge, not committed capital" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Stargate is a $500B/10GW four-year intention announced Jan 2025; treat it as a pledge, not committed capital — OpenAI claims rapid progress while independent reporting (Bloomberg, The Information) flagged early funding gaps and partner disputes.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Stargate — это четырёхлетнее намерение на $500 млрд / 10 ГВт, объявленное в январе 2025; это pledge, а не committed capital — OpenAI заявляет о быстром прогрессе, тогда как независимые источники (Bloomberg, The Information) фиксировали разрывы в финансировании и споры партнёров на старте.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "Stargate", "pledge vs spend" ], "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2025_STARGATE_US_500B_PLEDGE" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Stargate", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "scale-05", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "US data-center concentration", "claim": "The US hosts 5,427 data centers, more than ten times any other country.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Stanford AI Index 2026 (via TNW)", "name": "Stanford AI Index 2026 (via TNW)", "url": "https://thenextweb.com/news/stanford-ai-index-2026-china-us-performance-gap", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-04", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025", "caveats": [ "Counts vary by definition of data center" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Physical infrastructure is concentrated in the US, which hosts 5,427 data centers — more than ten times any other country (Stanford AI Index 2026).", "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "data centers" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "US data-center concentration", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "scale-06", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Model-quality convergence", "claim": "The performance gap between the best US and Chinese models narrowed to ~2.7% by March 2026, from 17.5-31.6 points across MMLU/MATH/HumanEval in 2023.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "2026 AI Index Report", "name": "2026 AI Index Report", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2023-2026", "caveats": [ "Benchmark leadership trades back and forth; benchmark scores are imperfect proxies" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Capital concentration has not bought a durable capability moat: the top US-China model gap narrowed to ~2.7% by early 2026 (Stanford AI Index 2026).", "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "benchmarks", "convergence" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Model-quality convergence", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "scale-07", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "China counter-stack capex (Alibaba)", "claim": "Alibaba announced a 380B yuan (~$52.4B reported) investment in AI and cloud infrastructure over three years (Feb 2025), evidence the Chinese counter-stack keeps scaling capex despite controls.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "capex_plan", "sources": [ { "title": "Alibaba to invest more than $52.4B in AI over next 3 years (Reuters)", "name": "Alibaba to invest more than $52.4B in AI over next 3 years (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/alibaba-invest-more-than-52-billion-ai-over-next-3-years-2025-02-24/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-02-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-02-24", "caveats": [ "Three-year plan, not realised spend", "USD figure is the reported conversion" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "China's counter-stack keeps scaling: Alibaba alone committed 380B yuan (~$52.4B) to AI and cloud over three years (Feb 2025) — a capex plan, not yet realised spend, but a signal that export controls have not frozen Chinese buildout.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Китайский counter-stack продолжает наращивать масштаб: одна Alibaba заявила 380 млрд юаней (~$52.4 млрд) на AI и облако за три года (февраль 2025) — это план capex, ещё не подтверждённый расход, но сигнал, что экспортный контроль не заморозил китайский buildout.", "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "Alibaba", "capex", "counter-stack" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "China counter-stack capex (Alibaba)", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "China" ] }, { "id": "scale-08", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Capital-markets spread (Japan/Blackstone)", "claim": "Blackstone plans a reported $30B investment in Japanese AI data centers (>1GW), evidence that AI-infrastructure buildout is spreading through global data-center capital markets beyond the US-China core.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "planned_investment_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Blackstone plans $30B investment in Japan AI data centres (Reuters/Nikkei)", "name": "Blackstone plans $30B investment in Japan AI data centres (Reuters/Nikkei)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/blackstone-plans-30-billion-investment-japan-ai-data-centres-nikkei-reports-2026-06-23/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-23", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-23", "caveats": [ "Nikkei-sourced; needs Blackstone primary confirmation and site details", "Planned, not deployed" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The buildout is globalising through capital markets, not just hyperscalers: Blackstone reportedly plans $30B for Japanese AI data centers (>1GW, June 2026) — a planned investment via Nikkei, awaiting primary confirmation.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Buildout глобализируется через рынки капитала, а не только гиперскейлеров: Blackstone, по сообщениям, планирует $30 млрд на японские AI-дата-центры (>1 ГВт, июнь 2026) — это план по данным Nikkei, требует первичного подтверждения.", "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "Blackstone", "Japan", "capital markets" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Capital-markets spread (Japan/Blackstone)", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "tier-us-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "US full-stack incumbent", "claim": "The US holds the full stack: leading chips (Nvidia ~60%+ GPU share), cloud (AWS/Azure/GCP ~66% of cloud infra), frontier closed models, and the chokepoint software layer (CUDA).", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "Stanford 2026 AI Index (via BigGo)", "name": "Stanford 2026 AI Index (via BigGo)", "url": "https://finance.biggo.com/news/59Y2lJ0BrdTHlKtCX__S", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-04", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Hyperscaler cloud share", "name": "Hyperscaler cloud share", "url": "https://techblog.comsoc.org/2025/12/22/hyperscaler-capex-600-bn-in-2026-a-36-increase-over-2025-while-global-spending-on-cloud-infrastructure-services-skyrockets/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-12-22", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Market-share figures are estimates", "Talent inflow to US fell sharply (Stanford: -89% since 2017) — a counter-trend" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The US is the incumbent full-stack core — Nvidia silicon, the big-three clouds (~66% of cloud infra), frontier models and the CUDA software lock — though its talent-attraction advantage is eroding.", "stack_layer": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "full stack", "CUDA", "incumbent" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "US full-stack incumbent", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "tier-cn-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "China parallel stack", "claim": "China is building a counter-core stack: SMIC 7nm fabrication, Huawei Ascend accelerators (910C/910D), domestic clouds, and competitive open-weight models (DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi K2, Zhipu GLM-5).", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "How Huawei Trains DeepSeek-R1-Class LLMs", "name": "How Huawei Trains DeepSeek-R1-Class LLMs", "url": "https://recodechinaai.substack.com/p/how-huawei-trains-deepseek-r1-class", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-05", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls (CSIS)", "name": "DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls (CSIS)", "url": "https://www.csis.org/analysis/deepseek-huawei-export-controls-and-future-us-china-ai-race", "type": "Background / tertiary", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Ascend remains ~1 generation behind on single-chip performance (Ren Zhengfei); HBM and SMIC yield are bottlenecks", "Some performance/training claims are vendor-stated" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "China is assembling a parallel stack — SMIC 7nm, Huawei Ascend, domestic clouds and a deep open-weight model bench (DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM-5) — but stays a generation behind on single-chip performance and constrained by HBM and foundry yields.", "stack_layer": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "Ascend", "SMIC", "parallel stack" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "China parallel stack", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "countermove", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_001", "EDGE_CN_002" ] }, { "id": "tier-cn-02", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "GLM-5 on Ascend", "claim": "Zhipu's GLM-5 (744B MoE) was reportedly trained on ~100,000 Huawei Ascend chips, while DeepSeek reportedly reverted R2 to Nvidia after Ascend training-stability problems.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "How China's GLM-5 Works", "name": "How China's GLM-5 Works", "url": "https://letsdatascience.com/blog/china-trained-frontier-ai-model-glm-5-without-nvidia", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-02", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "DeepSeek V4 and R2 Deep Dive", "name": "DeepSeek V4 and R2 Deep Dive", "url": "https://www.meta-intelligence.tech/en/insight-deepseek-v4-r2", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "GLM-5 chip count and some self-reported benchmarks not independently verified", "DeepSeek R2/Ascend reversion is reported (SiliconAngle), not officially confirmed" ], "corrections": [ "Mark GLM-5 chip count and DeepSeek R2 reversion as reported/unconfirmed" ], "recommended_phrasing": "The Ascend training story is mixed: GLM-5 was reportedly trained on ~100,000 Ascend chips, yet DeepSeek reportedly reverted R2 to Nvidia after Ascend instability — evidence that domestic silicon can serve and increasingly train, but not yet frictionlessly at the frontier.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "GLM-5", "Ascend training" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "GLM-5 on Ascend", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "tier-cn-03", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "China energy/grid bottleneck", "claim": "China's push for green-powered AI data centers faces grid and load hurdles: an 80% renewables target by 2030 against ~11% reported share in 2023, with +300-500 TWh of projected additional AI demand by 2030.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "China green power for AI projects faces hurdles (Reuters)", "name": "China green power for AI projects faces hurdles (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-push-green-power-use-ai-projects-faces-hurdles-experts-say-2026-06-22/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-22", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-22", "caveats": [ "Targets and demand projections are forward estimates", "Needs official Chinese energy/data-center policy documents" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The stack begins below the chips: China's AI buildout collides with grid limits — an 80% renewables target by 2030 against ~11% in 2023 and +300-500 TWh of new AI demand — making energy a strategic bottleneck, not a footnote.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Стек начинается ниже чипов: китайский AI-buildout упирается в ограничения сети — цель 80% ВИЭ к 2030 против ~11% в 2023 и +300-500 ТВт·ч нового спроса от AI — что делает энергетику стратегическим bottleneck, а не сноской.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "energy", "grid", "bottleneck" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "China energy/grid bottleneck", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "China" ] }, { "id": "tier-uae-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "UAE G42 / Stargate UAE", "claim": "The UAE's G42 received a $1.5B Microsoft investment (Apr 2024) conditioned on stripping Huawei gear and divesting Chinese holdings; Stargate UAE (1GW, Abu Dhabi) was announced May 2025 with G42/OpenAI/Oracle/Nvidia/Cisco/SoftBank.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "corporate_investment_announced", "sources": [ { "title": "Microsoft and U.S. join AI forces in UAE deal", "name": "Microsoft and U.S. join AI forces in UAE deal", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2024/04/17/microsoft-ai-uae-g42-china", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2024-04-17", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Advanced AI chips cleared for export to UAE", "name": "Advanced AI chips cleared for export to UAE", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2024/12/07/us-uae-microsoft-g42-ai-chips", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2024-12-07", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2024-2025", "caveats": [ "Divested Chinese holdings reportedly moved to a fund under the same ruling-family principal (Bloomberg)" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The UAE shows the assurance mechanism cleanly: G42 got Microsoft capital and US chips only after stripping Huawei gear and divesting Chinese stakes — access purchased under external security conditions, the opposite of autonomous sovereignty.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "ОАЭ наглядно показывают механизм assurance: G42 получил капитал Microsoft и американские чипы только после удаления оборудования Huawei и продажи китайских долей — доступ, купленный под внешними условиями безопасности, противоположность автономному суверенитету.", "stack_layer": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "uae", "keywords": [ "G42", "assurance", "forced divestiture" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "UAE G42 / Stargate UAE", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "UAE" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports", "parallel" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_GULF_003", "EDGE_GULF_005" ] }, { "id": "tier-ksa-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "Saudi HUMAIN", "claim": "Saudi Arabia's PIF-owned HUMAIN agreed (Nov 2025) to deploy up to 600,000 Nvidia AI units over three years (incl. GB300), formed an AMD/Cisco JV targeting up to 1GW by 2030, partnered with xAI on a 500MW Riyadh data center, and invested $3B in xAI's Series E (Feb 2026).", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "investment_reported_plus_capacity_plan", "sources": [ { "title": "HUMAIN Expands Strategic Partnership with NVIDIA", "name": "HUMAIN Expands Strategic Partnership with NVIDIA", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/humain-expands-strategic-partnership-with-nvidia-advancing-global-ai-infrastructure-with-xai-global-ai-and-aws-at-the-us-saudi-investment-forum-302620854.html", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-11-19", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Saudi HUMAIN invested $3B in xAI Series E (Reuters)", "name": "Saudi HUMAIN invested $3B in xAI Series E (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudis-humain-invested-3-billion-xais-series-e-funding-round-2026-02-18/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-02-18", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Deployment is multi-year intention dependent on US export licensing", "Full-stack branding is vendor language; foundational chips/models are US-supplied" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Saudi HUMAIN announced deals to deploy up to 600,000 Nvidia units over three years, an AMD/Cisco 1GW JV, an xAI/Grok deployment and a $3B stake in xAI (Feb 2026) — but the stack rests on US chips, clouds and models under US licensing: bought access, not sovereignty.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Саудовская HUMAIN объявила о развёртывании до 600 000 единиц Nvidia за три года, JV с AMD/Cisco на 1 ГВт, размещении xAI/Grok и доле $3 млрд в xAI (февраль 2026) — но стек держится на американских чипах, облаках и моделях под лицензированием США: купленный доступ, а не суверенитет.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "saudi", "keywords": [ "HUMAIN", "Nvidia", "xAI" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Saudi HUMAIN", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "saudi" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_GULF_004" ] }, { "id": "tier-uk-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "UK platform affiliate", "claim": "Stargate UK (Sept 2025, OpenAI/Nvidia/Nscale) planned up to 8,000 GPUs scaling to 31,000 for sovereign UK compute; Nscale/Microsoft separately committed ~23,040 GB300 GPUs at Loughton. OpenAI later paused Stargate UK citing energy costs and regulation.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "capacity_announced", "sources": [ { "title": "Introducing Stargate UK", "name": "Introducing Stargate UK", "url": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-uk/", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-09-16", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Stargate UK paused (Data Centre Magazine)", "name": "Stargate UK paused (Data Centre Magazine)", "url": "https://datacentremagazine.com/news/stargate-uk-why-is-openai-halting-ai-data-centre-project", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Sovereign is OpenAI framing; capacity is US-owned models on US chips in UK-sited DCs", "Pause shows fragility of the affiliate position" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The UK is a platform affiliate: Stargate UK promised sovereign compute (8,000 to 31,000 GPUs) but is OpenAI models on Nvidia chips in UK-sited Nscale DCs — and OpenAI paused it over UK energy costs and regulation, underscoring how conditional that access is.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Великобритания — platform affiliate: Stargate UK обещал суверенный compute (8 000 → 31 000 GPU), но это модели OpenAI на чипах Nvidia в дата-центрах Nscale на территории UK — и OpenAI поставил проект на паузу из-за британских цен на энергию и регулирования, что подчёркивает условность этого доступа.", "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "uk", "keywords": [ "Stargate UK", "affiliate", "paused" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "UK platform affiliate", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "UK" ] }, { "id": "tier-eu-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "EU InvestAI", "claim": "The EU launched InvestAI (Feb 2025) to mobilise EUR 200B for AI, including a EUR 20B fund for up to five AI gigafactories (>=100,000 advanced chips each), federated with EuroHPC AI Factories.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "pledge_mobilisation_target", "sources": [ { "title": "AI Factories — European Commission", "name": "AI Factories — European Commission", "url": "https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/ai-factories", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "EIB-Commission gigafactories MoU", "name": "EIB-Commission gigafactories MoU", "url": "https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2025-491-eib-group-and-european-commission-join-forces-to-finance-ai-gigafactories", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "EUR 200B is a mobilisation target (public+private leverage), not committed spend", "~95% of commercially available AI compute is US/China-operated (Hawkins et al. via Interface)" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The EU's InvestAI (Feb 2025) aims to mobilise EUR 200B including EUR 20B for AI gigafactories — but it remains a leverage target, and Europe still depends on US/China-operated compute, with ASML its main genuine chokepoint asset.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "eu", "keywords": [ "InvestAI", "gigafactories", "EuroHPC" ], "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2025_EU_INVESTAI_200B_MOBILIZATION", "SIG_2025_FRANCE_AI_109B_MOBILIZATION" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "EU InvestAI", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "EU" ] }, { "id": "tier-eu-02", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "EU cloud concentration + Pax Silica", "claim": "The EU preliminarily concluded (June 2026) that AWS and Azure should fall under DMA gatekeeper rules, and joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative on AI/chip supply-chain security — signs that cloud concentration is now a governance issue and that trusted-stack blocs are forming.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "Amazon, Microsoft cloud should fall under EU tech rules (Reuters)", "name": "Amazon, Microsoft cloud should fall under EU tech rules (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/amazon-microsoft-cloud-computing-services-should-fall-under-eu-tech-rules-eu-2026-06-25/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-25", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "EU joins US-led Pax Silica (Reuters)", "name": "EU joins US-led Pax Silica (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-joins-us-led-pax-silica-securing-ai-chip-supply-chains-2026-06-25/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-25", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-25", "caveats": [ "DMA gatekeeper finding is preliminary; track final designation and remedies", "Pax Silica declaration text and member list not yet attached" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Two June-2026 moves sharpen the picture: the EU preliminarily put AWS and Azure under DMA gatekeeper rules (cloud concentration as a competition/autonomy issue) and joined the US-led Pax Silica supply-chain bloc — the stack is now governed through both antitrust and alliance formation, not just export bans.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Два шага июня 2026 уточняют картину: ЕС предварительно отнёс AWS и Azure к gatekeeper-ам по DMA (облачная концентрация как вопрос конкуренции/автономии) и присоединился к US-led блоку Pax Silica по supply-chain — стек теперь управляется и через антимонополию, и через формирование альянсов, а не только запреты на экспорт.", "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "eu", "keywords": [ "DMA", "cloud", "Pax Silica", "bloc" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "EU cloud concentration + Pax Silica", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "EU" ] }, { "id": "tier-fr-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "France Mistral / ASML leverage", "claim": "France hosts Mistral (Europe's main frontier-model contender, backed by Nvidia) and the EU's lithography chokepoint sits in the Netherlands (ASML), the single non-US/China structural-power asset in the stack.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Who Controls Europe's AI Future? (Open Future)", "name": "Who Controls Europe's AI Future? (Open Future)", "url": "https://openfuture.eu/blog/who-controls-europes-ai-future/", "type": "Background / tertiary", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025", "caveats": [ "Mistral is Nvidia-backed and integrated into Nvidia's stack — partial dependence", "ASML is Dutch, not French; grouped here as EU-bloc leverage" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Europe's one true chokepoint is ASML lithography (Netherlands); France's Mistral is the bloc's credible model lab but is Nvidia-backed and ecosystem-dependent — leverage at one layer, dependence at others.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "france", "keywords": [ "Mistral", "ASML", "lithography" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "France Mistral / ASML leverage", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "france" ] }, { "id": "tier-india-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "India managed dependence", "claim": "The IndiaAI Mission (Rs 10,371.92 crore / ~$1.25B) assembled ~34,000+ GPUs (target 100,000 by end-2026) at subsidised rates (100% compute subsidy for foundational-model builders), almost entirely on Nvidia/foreign silicon.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "allocated_budget", "sources": [ { "title": "PIB: India common computing facility", "name": "PIB: India common computing facility", "url": "https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2097709", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-01-30", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "India Fuels Its AI Mission With NVIDIA", "name": "India Fuels Its AI Mission With NVIDIA", "url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/india-ai-mission-infrastructure-models/", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "GPU counts grew through 2025-26 (18,693 to ~34,000); indigenous GPU is a 4-year promise", "Subsidy rates and totals vary by source" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "India exemplifies the sovereignty gap: a ~$1.25B IndiaAI Mission subsidising ~34,000+ GPUs (target 100,000) and domestic models (Sarvam, BharatGen) — real capability, but built on Nvidia silicon and foreign cloud, i.e. managed dependence not exit.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Индия — пример sovereignty gap: миссия IndiaAI на ~$1.25 млрд субсидирует ~34 000+ GPU (цель 100 000) и отечественные модели (Sarvam, BharatGen) — реальная компетенция, но построенная на кремнии Nvidia и иностранном облаке, то есть управляемая зависимость, а не exit.", "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "india", "keywords": [ "IndiaAI", "subsidy", "managed dependence" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "India managed dependence", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "india" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_OPEN_004" ] }, { "id": "tier-india-02", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "India dependence reinforced (Amazon)", "claim": "Amazon announced an additional $13B investment in India AI/cloud infrastructure by 2030 ($48B total planned), evidence that India's AI capacity growth is materially mediated by foreign hyperscalers.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "announced_investment_plan", "sources": [ { "title": "Amazon to invest additional $13B in India (Reuters)", "name": "Amazon to invest additional $13B in India (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/india/amazon-invest-additional-13-billion-india-2026-06-25/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-25", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-25", "caveats": [ "Announced plan to 2030, not deployed capacity", "Needs IndiaAI Mission official compute and domestic-procurement data alongside" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "India's dependence is reinforced from the top: Amazon announced an extra $13B for India AI/cloud by 2030 ($48B total planned) — Global South capacity growth routed through a US hyperscaler, exactly the managed-dependence pattern.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Зависимость Индии усиливается сверху: Amazon объявил дополнительные $13 млрд на AI/облако в Индии к 2030 ($48 млрд суммарно) — рост мощностей Global South, маршрутизированный через американского гиперскейлера, ровно паттерн управляемой зависимости.", "stack_layer": [ "cloud_inference" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "india", "keywords": [ "Amazon", "India", "hyperscaler dependence" ], "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2024_INDIAAI_MISSION_1_25B" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "India dependence reinforced (Amazon)", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "india" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "tier-russia-01", "pass": "tiering", "topic": "Russia isolated autarky", "claim": "Russia pursues isolated AI autarky: Sber's GigaChat and Yandex's YandexGPT, blocked from Nvidia by sanctions, with Sberbank exploring Chinese chips and citing CUDA as Nvidia's key lock-in; Russia markets sovereign AI to the Global South and (March 2026) proposed powers to ban/restrict foreign AI tools.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "Russia's Sberbank offers AI to Global South (Reuters)", "name": "Russia's Sberbank offers AI to Global South (Reuters)", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/russias-sberbank-offers-ai-model-103301461.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-06-03", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Russia to give itself sweeping powers to ban/restrict foreign AI (Reuters)", "name": "Russia to give itself sweeping powers to ban/restrict foreign AI (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/russia-give-itself-sweeping-powers-ban-or-restrict-foreign-ai-tools-2026-03-20/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Russian benchmark claims are vendor/state-aligned", "Nebius (ex-Yandex) relocated out of Russia and is now a Western-market Nvidia partner — not Russian capacity", "Actual Russian frontier-compute baseline remains under-measured" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Russia is the isolation case: sanctioned out of Nvidia, leaning on Chinese chips and admitting CUDA lock-in, it markets sovereign AI to the Global South and proposed powers to restrict foreign AI tools (March 2026) — values-aligned but, by its own bank's account, slower and not as smart.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Россия — кейс изоляции: отрезанная санкциями от Nvidia, опирающаяся на китайские чипы и признающая lock-in CUDA, она предлагает суверенный AI Global South и (март 2026) предложила полномочия ограничивать иностранные AI-инструменты — ценностно согласовано, но, по словам собственного банка, медленнее и не так умно.", "stack_layer": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "russia", "keywords": [ "GigaChat", "CUDA", "autarky" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Russia isolated autarky", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "russia" ] }, { "id": "export-01", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "Oct 2022 controls", "claim": "On 7 October 2022 BIS imposed sweeping controls on advanced computing chips (e.g., A100/H100-class) and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, the opening move of the chip-control regime.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "U.S. Export Controls and China (CRS R48642)", "name": "U.S. Export Controls and China (CRS R48642)", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48642", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-09-19", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2022-10-07", "caveats": [ "Subsequently updated Oct 2023 and 2024" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The chip-control regime begins 7 Oct 2022, when BIS restricted advanced GPUs and chipmaking tools to China (CRS R48642) — the founding act of using the production structure as a security lever.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "BIS", "Oct 2022", "chronology" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Oct 2022 controls", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-02", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "AI Diffusion Rule", "claim": "BIS issued the Framework for AI Diffusion on 15 January 2025 — a worldwide tiered licensing regime covering advanced chips and closed model weights (ECCN 4E091) — set to take effect 15 May 2025.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "Kirkland & Ellis: BIS Rescission of AI Diffusion Framework", "name": "Kirkland & Ellis: BIS Rescission of AI Diffusion Framework", "url": "https://www.kirkland.com/publications/kirkland-alert/2025/05/bis-rescission-of-the-biden-administration", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-05", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "CRS R48642 PDF", "name": "CRS R48642 PDF", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R48642/R48642.5.pdf", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-09-19", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-01-15", "caveats": [ "Three country tiers; Tier I exempt, Tier II via data-center VEU, Tier III denied" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The Jan 2025 AI Diffusion Rule was the most explicit attempt to formalise a world-tier system — three country tiers governing chip and model-weight access — and the clearest doctrinal statement of AI-as-structural-power.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Правило AI Diffusion (январь 2025) было самой явной попыткой формализовать мировую систему тиров — три страновых тира, регулирующих доступ к чипам и весам моделей — и наиболее чётким доктринальным заявлением об AI как структурной власти.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "AI Diffusion Rule", "tiers", "model weights" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "AI Diffusion Rule", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_003" ] }, { "id": "export-03", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "Diffusion Rule rescission", "claim": "On 13 May 2025 BIS rescinded the AI Diffusion Rule (two days before effect), promised a replacement, and issued guidance including that Huawei Ascend chips (ECCN 3A090) are presumptively subject to General Prohibition 10.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "BIS press release: rescission", "name": "BIS press release: rescission", "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-rescinds-biden-era-artificial-intelligence-diffusion-rule-strengthens-chip-related", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-05-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Hogan Lovells analysis", "name": "Hogan Lovells analysis", "url": "https://www.hoganlovells.com/en/publications/bis-announces-rescission-of-bidenera-ai-diffusion-rule-and-issues-guidance", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-05-15", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-05-13", "caveats": [ "Replacement draft was later withdrawn (see export-11)", "Rescission timing coincided with Trump's Gulf visit (multiple outlets)" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The rescission (13 May 2025) replaced a rules-based tier system with a more discretionary, deal-by-deal regime — leverage exercised case by case — while extraterritorial Huawei Ascend guidance (GP10) extended US reach over third-country chip use.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Отзыв правила (13 мая 2025) заменил основанную на правилах систему тиров на более дискреционный режим по сделкам — рычаг, применяемый точечно — а экстерриториальное руководство по Huawei Ascend (GP10) распространило охват США на использование чипов в третьих странах.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "rescission", "GP10", "Huawei Ascend" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Diffusion Rule rescission", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-04", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "H20 ban then 15% revenue-share", "claim": "The H20 was effectively banned from China in April 2025 (Nvidia took a ~$4.5-5.5B charge); in August 2025 Nvidia and AMD agreed to remit 15% of China H20/MI308 revenue to the US government in exchange for licenses.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "corporate_financial_charge_plus_revenue_share", "sources": [ { "title": "Trump says Nvidia will hand the U.S. 15% (NPR)", "name": "Trump says Nvidia will hand the U.S. 15% (NPR)", "url": "https://www.npr.org/2025/08/11/nx-s1-5498689/trump-nvidia-h20-chip-sales-china", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-08-11", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Nvidia hasn't finalized 15% deal (Yahoo/Nvidia CFO)", "name": "Nvidia hasn't finalized 15% deal (Yahoo/Nvidia CFO)", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-still-hasnt-finalized-deal-to-kick-15-of-h20-china-chip-sales-back-to-the-us-government-230229161.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-08-27", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-04 to 2025-08", "caveats": [ "Nvidia CFO said the 15% was a USG expectation not yet codified in regulation; legal basis unclear", "FT first reported the arrangement" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The clearest rent mechanism: after banning the H20 (April 2025), Washington reportedly agreed in August to let Nvidia/AMD sell to China in exchange for 15% of that revenue — converting export control into a literal toll. Note Nvidia's CFO said the requirement was not yet codified.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Самый явный механизм ренты: после запрета H20 (апрель 2025) Вашингтон, по сообщениям, в августе согласился разрешить Nvidia/AMD продавать в Китай в обмен на 15% этой выручки — превратив экспортный контроль в буквальную пошлину. При этом CFO Nvidia заявил, что требование ещё не кодифицировано.", "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "H20", "15% revenue share", "rent" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "H20 ban then 15% revenue-share", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "updates" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_TOLL_001", "EDGE_TOLL_002" ] }, { "id": "export-05", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "China rare-earth countermeasures", "claim": "China escalated critical-mineral controls (gallium/germanium licensing July 2023; Dec 2024 ban on gallium/germanium/antimony to the US; April 2025 and Oct 2025 rare-earth additions), wielding ~98% of refined gallium output as leverage.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "China Export Controls: Critical Minerals (Andersen Institute)", "name": "China Export Controls: Critical Minerals (Andersen Institute)", "url": "https://anderseninstitute.org/chinas-export-control-architecture-and-its-use-of-critical-minerals-as-strategic-pressure-points/", "type": "Background / tertiary", "date": "2026", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "CRS R48642", "name": "CRS R48642", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48642", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-09-19", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2023-2026", "caveats": [ "Many controls were partially suspended after Oct 2025 Trump-Xi talks (MOFCOM Announcements 70/72) — a truce, not removal", "Antimony exports fell ~97% after Aug 2024 restrictions" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Structural power runs both ways: China answered chip controls with mineral controls — gallium/germanium licensing and a Dec 2024 US ban, leveraging ~98% of refined gallium — though most were suspended in a fragile late-2025 truce.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Структурная власть работает в обе стороны: Китай ответил на контроль чипов контролем минералов — лицензирование галлия/германия и запрет на экспорт в США (декабрь 2024), используя ~98% мирового выпуска рафинированного галлия — хотя большинство мер приостановлено в хрупком перемирии конца 2025.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "rare earths", "gallium", "countermeasures" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "China rare-earth countermeasures", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "countermove", "early_countermeasure" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_001", "EDGE_2022_2023_006" ] }, { "id": "export-06", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "SAMR Nvidia antitrust probe", "claim": "China's SAMR opened an antitrust probe into Nvidia (Dec 2024) and issued a preliminary finding (Sept 2025) that Nvidia violated commitments from its 2020 Mellanox approval — a regulatory pressure lever later suspended in trade talks.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "CRS R48642 PDF (SAMR Sept 2025 finding)", "name": "CRS R48642 PDF (SAMR Sept 2025 finding)", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R48642/R48642.5.pdf", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-09-19", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Beijing presses Washington (Tech Times)", "name": "Beijing presses Washington (Tech Times)", "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317037/20260522/beijing-presses-washington-honor-summit-deal-nvidia-qualcomm-probe-status-stays-unresolved.htm", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-05-22", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2024-2026", "caveats": [ "Widely read as retaliatory leverage rather than genuine competition concern", "Status ambiguous after 2025-26 truce; no formal closure notice initially" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "China also weaponises its own market access: the SAMR antitrust probe into Nvidia (preliminary violation finding Sept 2025) functioned as a bargaining lever, suspended and revived with the trade weather.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "SAMR", "antitrust", "leverage" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "SAMR Nvidia antitrust probe", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "export-07", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "GAIN AI Act", "claim": "The bipartisan GAIN AI Act (S.3150 / H.R.5885, 2025) would require exporters of advanced AI chips to countries of concern to first certify US persons have priority access; it passed the Senate via an NDAA amendment but was dropped from the final defense bill after White House/Nvidia lobbying.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "S.3150 text (Congress.gov)", "name": "S.3150 text (Congress.gov)", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/3150/text", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-11-06", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Senate Banking GAIN AI Act release", "name": "Senate Banking GAIN AI Act release", "url": "https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/banks-warren-cotton-schumer-mccormick-coons-introduce-landmark-bipartisan-gain-ai-act-to-maintain-us-position-as-worlds-leader-in-critical-artificial-intelligence-chips", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-11-06", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025", "caveats": [ "Standalone bill status pending in committee (inferred); dropped from enacted NDAA per Lawfare", "Sponsors: Banks (S), Krishnamoorthi/Moolenaar (H)" ], "corrections": [ "Note standalone status pending and that it was dropped from the enacted NDAA" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Congress is institutionalising the logic: the GAIN AI Act (S.3150/H.R.5885, 2025) would force chipmakers to serve US buyers before exporting to adversaries — it cleared the Senate in the NDAA but was stripped from the final bill after White House and Nvidia lobbying.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "GAIN AI Act", "priority access", "legislation" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "GAIN AI Act", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-08", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "Chip Security Act", "claim": "The Chip Security Act (H.R.3447 / S.1705, introduced May 2025) would require advanced AI chips to carry location-verification mechanisms before export; it passed House Foreign Affairs Committee 42-0.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "H.R.3447 text (Congress.gov)", "name": "H.R.3447 text (Congress.gov)", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3447/text", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-05-15", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "House Select Committee: Chip Security Act passage", "name": "House Select Committee: Chip Security Act passage", "url": "https://chinaselectcommittee.house.gov/media/press-releases/house-committee-passes-chip-security-act", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-03", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Sponsors Huizenga/Foster (H), Cotton (S); committee vote occurred March 2026", "Pending full House floor" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The Chip Security Act (H.R.3447, 2025) would mandate location-tracking on exported AI chips — turning silicon into a surveilled, conditionally-licensed asset — and cleared House Foreign Affairs 42-0.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "Chip Security Act", "location tracking" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Chip Security Act", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-09", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "AI OVERWATCH Act", "claim": "The AI OVERWATCH Act (H.R.6875, introduced Dec 2025) would require licenses and a 30-day congressional-review window (modeled on the Arms Export Control Act) for advanced-AI-chip exports to six countries of concern; it advanced from House Foreign Affairs 42-2 in Jan 2026.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "H.R.6875 titles (Congress.gov)", "name": "H.R.6875 titles (Congress.gov)", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/6875/titles", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-12-18", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "HFAC: Chairman Mast introduces AI OVERWATCH Act", "name": "HFAC: Chairman Mast introduces AI OVERWATCH Act", "url": "https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/news/press-releases/chairman-mast-introduces-ai-overwatch-act-to-secure-america-s-technological-dominance", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-12", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Committee tally cited as 42-2 (Lawfare) or 42-2-1 (other)", "Opposed by White House (Sacks) and Nvidia" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The AI OVERWATCH Act (H.R.6875, Dec 2025) would put advanced-chip exports under arms-control-style congressional review for six adversary states — explicitly treating compute like a weapons system — and advanced from committee 42-2.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "AI OVERWATCH Act", "arms-control analogy" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "AI OVERWATCH Act", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-10", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "TikTok / forced-divest pattern", "claim": "The US has repeatedly forced ownership divorces as a condition of stack participation (TikTok divestiture law; G42 divesting ByteDance and Huawei), establishing that a firm cannot be in both China's camp and ours (Raimondo).", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "Microsoft and U.S. join AI forces in UAE deal (Raimondo quote)", "name": "Microsoft and U.S. join AI forces in UAE deal (Raimondo quote)", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2024/04/17/microsoft-ai-uae-g42-china", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2024-04-17", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2024-2025", "caveats": [ "TikTok enforcement has been politically irregular under the current administration" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "A recurring discipline mechanism is the forced divorce — G42 shedding ByteDance/Huawei, the TikTok divestiture law — codifying Raimondo's line that a firm cannot be both in China's camp and ours.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "forced divestiture", "TikTok", "alignment" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "TikTok / forced-divest pattern", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-11", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "AI Diffusion replacement withdrawn", "claim": "On 13 March 2026 the US Commerce Department withdrew its planned replacement rule for AI chip exports, leaving pre-existing controls and case-by-case guidance in force and the codified tier architecture unresolved.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "US Commerce withdraws planned rule on AI chip exports (Reuters)", "name": "US Commerce withdraws planned rule on AI chip exports (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/us-commerce-department-withdraws-planned-rule-ai-chip-exports-government-website-2026-03-13/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-03-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-03-13", "caveats": [ "No successor rule published as of mid-2026; track any future rule", "Withdrawal means the export regime is currently discretionary, not a stable codified tier order" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The tier order is doctrine in flux, not settled architecture: after rescinding the AI Diffusion Rule, Commerce withdrew its draft replacement (March 2026), so the regime now runs on pre-existing controls and discretionary guidance — phrase the world-tier system as an active project, not a finished order.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Система тиров — это доктрина в движении, а не устоявшаяся архитектура: отозвав правило AI Diffusion, Минторг США снял и проект замены (март 2026), так что режим теперь работает на ранее действующих ограничениях и дискреционном руководстве — формулируйте мировую систему тиров как активный проект, а не завершённый порядок.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "AI Diffusion", "replacement withdrawn", "discretionary" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "AI Diffusion replacement withdrawn", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_004" ] }, { "id": "export-12", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "BIS D:5/Macau extraterritorial guidance", "claim": "BIS confirmed (31 May 2026) that a license is required to export advanced computing items to entities headquartered in Country Group D:5 or Macau, even when those entities operate abroad — control follows ultimate parentage, not only physical destination.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "BIS guidance May 31, 2026 (PDF)", "name": "BIS guidance May 31, 2026 (PDF)", "url": "https://www.bis.gov/media/documents/bis-guidance-may-31-2026.pdf", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-05-31", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-05-31", "caveats": [ "Add examples of enforcement or denied licenses if available" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "US reach extends by ownership, not geography: BIS confirmed (May 2026) that exporting advanced compute to D:5/Macau-headquartered entities requires a license wherever they operate — the panopticon follows the parent company, the strongest current evidence of extraterritorial stack control.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Охват США определяется собственностью, а не географией: BIS подтвердил (май 2026), что экспорт продвинутого compute структурам со штаб-квартирой в D:5/Макао требует лицензии независимо от места их работы — паноптикум следует за материнской компанией, сильнейшее текущее свидетельство экстерриториального контроля над стеком.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "BIS", "D:5", "extraterritorial", "headquarters" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "BIS D:5/Macau extraterritorial guidance", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_005" ] }, { "id": "cyber-01", "pass": "machine_speed_cyber", "topic": "AIxCC proven find-and-fix", "claim": "At DARPA's AIxCC final (DEF CON 33, Aug 2025), autonomous cyber reasoning systems found a majority of synthetic vulnerabilities and patched most of them, also surfacing 18 real-world vulnerabilities; tools were open-sourced. DARPA reported 54/63 found (86%) and 68% patched; Axios reported 77% found / 61% patched / ~45-min average patch on a 70-bug set.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "AIxCC marks pivotal inflection point (DARPA)", "name": "AIxCC marks pivotal inflection point (DARPA)", "url": "https://www.darpa.mil/news/2025/aixcc-results", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-08-08", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Cybersecurity Dive: DARPA touts results", "name": "Cybersecurity Dive: DARPA touts results", "url": "https://www.cybersecuritydive.com/news/darpa-ai-cyber-challenge-winners-def-con/757252/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-08-08", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Axios Future of Cybersecurity (alt figures)", "name": "Axios Future of Cybersecurity (alt figures)", "url": "https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-of-cybersecurity-thought-bubble-04e655f0-73be-11f0-9251-67d188444922", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-08", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-08", "caveats": [ "Synthetic, time-boxed (4 hrs cloud compute) on tens of millions of lines of code — not equivalent to real-world adversarial ops", "Headline number is for DEFENSE (find-and-fix), not autonomous offense", "Found/patched rates differ by source (DARPA 86%/68% vs Axios 77%/61%) due to different denominators; prefer DARPA primary" ], "corrections": [ "For slides use DARPA primary figures (86% found / 68% patched); the 45-min average patch time is a useful Axios add-on" ], "recommended_phrasing": "The proven, replicable datapoint is defensive: AIxCC systems autonomously found the large majority of seeded bugs (86% per DARPA), patched most (68%) and surfaced 18 real ones (Aug 2025) — strong evidence that automated find-and-fix is real, and that defense can scale.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Доказанный воспроизводимый факт — оборонительный: системы AIxCC автономно нашли подавляющее большинство заложенных багов (86% по DARPA), пропатчили большую часть (68%) и обнаружили 18 реальных (август 2025) — сильное свидетельство, что автоматический find-and-fix реален и что оборона масштабируется.", "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "AIxCC", "find-and-fix", "defense scales" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "AIxCC proven find-and-fix", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_with_scope", "sets_up" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_001", "EDGE_2022_2023_007" ] }, { "id": "cyber-02", "pass": "machine_speed_cyber", "topic": "Anthropic GTG-1002", "claim": "Anthropic reported (Nov 2025) a Chinese state-linked actor (GTG-1002) used Claude Code to run a largely autonomous (80-90%) cyber-espionage campaign against ~30 organisations — described as the first such case at scale.", "status": "disputed", "evidence_level": "D", "sources": [ { "title": "Anthropic claims met with doubt (BleepingComputer)", "name": "Anthropic claims met with doubt (BleepingComputer)", "url": "https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/anthropic-claims-of-claude-ai-automated-cyberattacks-met-with-doubt/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-11", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "What we know and what we're watching (SC Media)", "name": "What we know and what we're watching (SC Media)", "url": "https://www.scworld.com/perspective/anthropics-ai-disclosure-what-we-know-and-what-were-watching-for", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-11", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-09 to 2025-11", "caveats": [ "No IoCs published; attribution methodology undisclosed; no government corroboration", "Anthropic admits Claude hallucinated/overstated findings; researchers (Beaumont, Kirk) called it overstated", "Vendor has commercial incentive — D-level" ], "corrections": [ "Do NOT state as established fact that AI executed an autonomous attack at scale — it is a contested vendor disclosure" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Vendor and lab claims suggest AI is accelerating offensive cyber: Anthropic's GTG-1002 disclosure (Nov 2025) describes a largely AI-run espionage campaign — but it lacks IoCs and independent corroboration and Anthropic concedes the model hallucinated, so treat it as a stress-test scenario, not proof of reliable exploit-at-scale.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Заявления вендоров и лабораторий указывают, что AI ускоряет наступательный кибер: раскрытие GTG-1002 от Anthropic (ноябрь 2025) описывает в основном AI-управляемую шпионскую кампанию — но без IoC и независимого подтверждения, и Anthropic признаёт галлюцинации модели, поэтому это стресс-тест-сценарий, а не доказательство надёжного exploit-at-scale.", "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "GTG-1002", "disputed", "machine speed" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Anthropic GTG-1002", "confidence": "D", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "challenges_overclaim" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_002" ] }, { "id": "cyber-03", "pass": "machine_speed_cyber", "topic": "Google Big Sleep", "claim": "Google's Big Sleep agent (DeepMind + Project Zero) found the first AI-discovered real-world exploitable bug (SQLite, Nov 2024), prevented an in-the-wild SQLite zero-day (CVE-2025-6965, July 2025), and reported its first 20 vulnerabilities (Aug 2025).", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "From Naptime to Big Sleep (Project Zero)", "name": "From Naptime to Big Sleep (Project Zero)", "url": "https://projectzero.google/2024/10/from-naptime-to-big-sleep.html", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2024-11", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Big Sleep agent makes big leap (Google Cloud)", "name": "Big Sleep agent makes big leap (Google Cloud)", "url": "https://cloud.google.com/blog/products/identity-security/cloud-ciso-perspectives-our-big-sleep-agent-makes-big-leap", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-07", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2024-2025", "caveats": [ "Human expert in loop for final review before reporting", "Demonstrates the same capability cuts BOTH ways — defense benefits too" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Automated vulnerability discovery is genuinely advancing on the defensive side: Google's Big Sleep found a real SQLite bug (Nov 2024), foiled an in-the-wild zero-day (July 2025) and reported 20 vulnerabilities (Aug 2025) — confirming the capability is real but also that defenders wield it.", "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "Big Sleep", "zero-day", "defense" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Google Big Sleep", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_003" ] }, { "id": "cyber-04", "pass": "machine_speed_cyber", "topic": "Offense-defense balance", "claim": "Because AIxCC tools were open-sourced and Big Sleep operates defensively, the offense-dominance thesis is contested: defensive automation (autonomous patching, virtual patching) is scaling in parallel.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "AIxCC finals winners (DARPA)", "name": "AIxCC finals winners (DARPA)", "url": "https://aicyberchallenge.com/finals-winners-announcement/", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-08-08", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025", "caveats": [ "Net offense-defense balance is genuinely uncertain and actively debated" ], "corrections": [ "Drop any offense-dominance phrasing; argue from access asymmetry instead" ], "recommended_phrasing": "The honest framing is symmetry, not offense-dominance: the same AIxCC systems that find bugs were open-sourced for defenders, so the structural-power claim should rest on access asymmetry (who has the tools), not on a settled belief that AI favours attackers.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Честная рамка — симметрия, а не доминирование атаки: те же системы AIxCC, что находят баги, выложены в открытый доступ для защитников, поэтому тезис о структурной власти должен опираться на асимметрию доступа (у кого есть инструменты), а не на убеждение, что AI выгоден атакующим.", "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "offense-defense", "patch", "symmetry" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Offense-defense balance", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_003", "EDGE_CYBER_007" ] }, { "id": "cyber-05", "pass": "machine_speed_cyber", "topic": "OSS-CRS transfer to real OSS", "claim": "OSS-CRS (arXiv, March 2026) ported AIxCC-style cyber reasoning techniques to real open-source projects and discovered 10 previously unknown bugs (3 high-severity) across 8 OSS-Fuzz projects — evidence competition systems transfer to real targets.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "OSS-CRS: porting AIxCC CRS to real-world OSS (arXiv)", "name": "OSS-CRS: porting AIxCC CRS to real-world OSS (arXiv)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08566", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-03-09", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-03-09", "caveats": [ "Preprint; needs peer review, independent replication and a CVE/patch trail", "Defensive/research framing, not offensive operations" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The find-and-fix capability transfers beyond the contest: OSS-CRS (March 2026) applied AIxCC techniques to real open-source code and found 10 unknown bugs (3 high-severity) — a preprint result, but it shows competition tooling reaching real targets, again on the defensive side.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Способность find-and-fix переносится за пределы соревнования: OSS-CRS (март 2026) применил техники AIxCC к реальному open-source коду и нашёл 10 неизвестных багов (3 high-severity) — это препринт, но он показывает, что соревновательный инструментарий доходит до реальных целей, снова на стороне обороны.", "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "OSS-CRS", "transfer", "defense" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "OSS-CRS transfer to real OSS", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-01", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Data poisoning", "claim": "Anthropic, the UK AI Security Institute and the Alan Turing Institute found (Oct 2025) that as few as ~250 malicious documents (~0.00016% of training data) can backdoor LLMs from 600M to 13B parameters, regardless of model size.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "A small number of samples can poison LLMs (Anthropic)", "name": "A small number of samples can poison LLMs (Anthropic)", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/research/small-samples-poison", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-10-09", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Alan Turing Institute summary", "name": "Alan Turing Institute summary", "url": "https://www.turing.ac.uk/blog/llms-may-be-more-vulnerable-data-poisoning-we-thought", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-10", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-10", "caveats": [ "Tested narrow denial-of-service gibberish backdoor; unclear if it generalises to dangerous behaviours", "Pretraining-from-scratch experimental setup" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The knowledge structure has a concrete attack surface: ~250 poisoned documents (0.00016% of data) can backdoor models regardless of size (Anthropic/UK AISI/Alan Turing, Oct 2025) — though the demonstrated backdoor is narrow, so do not overstate to models can be weaponised at will.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "У структуры знания есть конкретная поверхность атаки: ~250 отравленных документов (0.00016% данных) могут внедрить backdoor в модель независимо от размера (Anthropic/UK AISI/Alan Turing, октябрь 2025) — хотя продемонстрированный backdoor узкий, поэтому не преувеличивайте до модель можно превратить в оружие по желанию.", "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "poisoning", "backdoor", "250 documents" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Data poisoning", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_mechanism" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_001" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-02", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Prompt injection / OWASP", "claim": "Prompt injection (direct and indirect) is the #1 risk in the OWASP Top 10 for LLM Applications (2025) — LLM01 — and OWASP states it cannot be fully patched because it exploits the LLM design of mixing instructions and data.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "OWASP Top 10 for LLM Applications 2025 (PDF)", "name": "OWASP Top 10 for LLM Applications 2025 (PDF)", "url": "https://owasp.org/www-project-top-10-for-large-language-model-applications/assets/PDF/OWASP-Top-10-for-LLMs-v2025.pdf", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025", "caveats": [ "OWASP list not ranked by real-world exploitation frequency" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Indirect prompt injection — hidden instructions in documents/RAG content a model treats as trusted — is OWASP's top LLM risk (LLM01, 2025) and structurally hard to eliminate, the technical core of the cognitive-influence-inside-decision-support argument.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Непрямая prompt injection — скрытые инструкции в документах/RAG-контенте, которые модель считает доверенными — это риск №1 в OWASP для LLM (LLM01, 2025) и структурно трудно устраним, технологическое ядро аргумента о когнитивном влиянии внутри decision-support.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "prompt injection", "OWASP", "RAG" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Prompt injection / OWASP", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_mechanism" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_002" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-03", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Frontier labs in government", "claim": "In July 2025 the DoD CDAO awarded contracts with a $200M ceiling each to Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI to build agentic AI workflows for national-security missions; Anthropic's Claude is integrated via Palantir into classified workflows.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "contract_ceiling", "sources": [ { "title": "Anthropic awarded $200M DOD agreement", "name": "Anthropic awarded $200M DOD agreement", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-and-the-department-of-defense-to-advance-responsible-ai-in-defense-operations", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-07-14", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Breaking Defense: $200M each for agentic AI", "name": "Breaking Defense: $200M each for agentic AI", "url": "https://breakingdefense.com/2025/07/anthropic-google-and-xai-win-200m-each-from-pentagon-ai-chief-for-agentic-ai/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-07-14", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-07", "caveats": [ "$200M is a ceiling, not guaranteed spend", "Embedding does not equal demonstrated compromise; the risk is structural exposure" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "AI decision-support is being embedded at the core of the security structure: the DoD awarded up to $200M each to Anthropic, Google, OpenAI and xAI (July 2025) for agentic workflows, with Claude running in classified workflows via Palantir — making model and data provenance a national-security supply-chain question.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "AI-decision-support встраивается в ядро структуры безопасности: Минобороны США выделило по $200 млн (потолок) Anthropic, Google, OpenAI и xAI (июль 2025) на агентные процессы, а Claude работает в секретных процессах через Palantir — что делает провенанс моделей и данных вопросом национальной supply-chain безопасности.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "DoD", "CDAO", "Palantir", "agentic" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Frontier labs in government", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_006" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-04", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Novelty caveat", "claim": "Cognitive-security risks via AI (bias, misinformation, supply-chain poisoning) are partly continuous with older software-supply-chain and influence-operation problems, not wholly new.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "OWASP Top 10 LLM 2025 (PDF)", "name": "OWASP Top 10 LLM 2025 (PDF)", "url": "https://owasp.org/www-project-top-10-for-large-language-model-applications/assets/PDF/OWASP-Top-10-for-LLMs-v2025.pdf", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025", "caveats": [ "Author should pre-empt the nothing-new objection" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Be honest about novelty: poisoning and influence are extensions of known software-supply-chain and FIMI problems — what is new is scale, autonomy and the concentration of the channel inside decision-support, not the existence of the risk.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Честно о новизне: отравление и влияние — это продолжение известных проблем software-supply-chain и FIMI; новое — масштаб, автономность и концентрация канала внутри decision-support, а не само наличие риска.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "novelty", "supply chain", "steelman" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Novelty caveat", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-05", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Indirect prompt injection in the wild", "claim": "A large-scale study (arXiv, April 2026) analysing 1.2B URLs across 24.8M hosts found 15,300 validated indirect-prompt-injection instances across 11,700 pages, with ~70% in non-rendered HTML — evidence external web data is already a machine-facing influence channel for agents/RAG.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Indirect prompt injections in the wild at web scale (arXiv)", "name": "Indirect prompt injections in the wild at web scale (arXiv)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27202", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-04-29", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-04-29", "caveats": [ "Preprint; prevalence study, not a confirmed enterprise/government incident", "Validated instances are a lower bound of what exists in the wild" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Cognitive influence is no longer hypothetical at the data layer: a web-scale study (April 2026) validated 15.3K indirect-prompt-injection instances across 11.7K pages out of 1.2B URLs — moving the risk from lab demo to measured in-the-wild prevalence, though a confirmed decision-support incident is still the missing piece.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Когнитивное влияние больше не гипотетично на уровне данных: исследование веб-масштаба (апрель 2026) подтвердило 15.3 тыс. инстансов непрямой prompt injection на 11.7 тыс. страниц из 1.2 млрд URL — переводя риск из лабораторного демо в измеренную распространённость в дикой природе, хотя подтверждённого инцидента в decision-support всё ещё не хватает.", "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "prompt injection", "in the wild", "web scale" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Indirect prompt injection in the wild", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "parallel" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_003" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-06", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Resume prompt injection", "claim": "A real-world study (arXiv, May 2026) of ~200,000 resumes found hidden prompt injections in approximately 1% of them, with >90% using non-explicit instructions — evidence prompt injection has entered deployed AI-mediated evaluation (hiring) workflows.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Hidden prompt injections in resume screening (arXiv)", "name": "Hidden prompt injections in resume screening (arXiv)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28999", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-05-27", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-05-27", "caveats": [ "Preprint; needs hiring-platform incident reports and mitigations", "1% is the share containing injections, not the share that succeeded" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The influence surface has reached a real decision workflow: ~1% of ~200K resumes carried hidden prompt injections aimed at LLM screeners (May 2026), most using non-explicit instructions — concrete evidence that AI-mediated evaluation is already being gamed at the input layer.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Поверхность влияния дошла до реального decision-workflow: ~1% из ~200 тыс. резюме содержали скрытые prompt injection, нацеленные на LLM-скрининг (май 2026), большинство — неявные инструкции — конкретное свидетельство, что AI-оценка уже подвергается манипуляции на входном уровне.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "resume", "hiring", "prompt injection" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Resume prompt injection", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "parallel", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_003", "EDGE_COG_004" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-07", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Agent indirect-prompt-injection red-team", "claim": "A public red-team competition (arXiv, March 2026) tested 13 frontier AI agents with ~272,000 attack attempts and recorded 8,648 successful indirect-prompt-injection attacks — quantifying that agentic systems remain structurally vulnerable to hidden-instruction attacks.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Red-teaming frontier agents for indirect prompt injection (arXiv)", "name": "Red-teaming frontier agents for indirect prompt injection (arXiv)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15714", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-03-16", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-03-16", "caveats": [ "Preprint/competition; not production-incident evidence", "Success rate depends on attack-surface assumptions in the competition design" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Agent vulnerability is now quantified, not asserted: a red-team competition (March 2026) logged 8,648 successful indirect-prompt-injection attacks against 13 frontier agents over ~272K attempts — strong evidence the structural weakness is real, pending production-incident confirmation.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Уязвимость агентов теперь измерена, а не просто заявлена: red-team-соревнование (март 2026) зафиксировало 8 648 успешных атак непрямой prompt injection против 13 frontier-агентов на ~272 тыс. попыток — сильное свидетельство реальности структурной слабости, в ожидании подтверждения production-инцидентом.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "agents", "red team", "prompt injection" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Agent indirect-prompt-injection red-team", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_005" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-08", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "AI Agent Index", "claim": "The AI Agent Index (arXiv, Feb 2026) documented 30 deployed state-of-the-art agentic AI systems and found uneven safety/evaluation transparency — agents are deployed faster than documentation and safety transparency mature.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "The AI Agent Index (arXiv)", "name": "The AI Agent Index (arXiv)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.17753", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-02-19", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-02-19", "caveats": [ "Snapshot; update with live index data before final publication", "Documents transparency gaps, not specific incidents" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Deployment is outrunning oversight: the AI Agent Index (Feb 2026) catalogued 30 deployed agentic systems with uneven safety transparency — supporting the call for an agent registry and provenance controls, especially for government and critical-infrastructure agents.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Развёртывание обгоняет надзор: AI Agent Index (февраль 2026) каталогизировал 30 развёрнутых агентных систем с неравномерной прозрачностью безопасности — что подкрепляет необходимость реестра агентов и контроля провенанса, особенно для государственных и критически важных агентов.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "agent index", "deployment", "transparency" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "AI Agent Index", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "openweight-01", "pass": "open_weight_exit", "topic": "DeepSeek R1 shock", "claim": "DeepSeek's open-weight R1 (Jan 2025) matched frontier reasoning at far lower cost and triggered a ~$589B single-day drop in Nvidia's market cap (27 Jan 2025), the largest in US stock-market history.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls (CSIS)", "name": "DeepSeek, Huawei, Export Controls (CSIS)", "url": "https://www.csis.org/analysis/deepseek-huawei-export-controls-and-future-us-china-ai-race", "type": "Background / tertiary", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "DeepSeek V4 (CNBC, recaps R1 impact)", "name": "DeepSeek V4 (CNBC, recaps R1 impact)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/deepseek-v4-llm-preview-open-source-ai-competition-china.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-04-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-01", "caveats": [ "DeepSeek's ~$6M training cost is a reported/contested figure", "R1 used Nvidia chips — open weights does not equal chip independence" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Open weights create a real exit at the model-artifact layer: DeepSeek R1 (Jan 2025) matched frontier reasoning cheaply and erased ~$589B of Nvidia value in a day — but it was trained on Nvidia silicon, so it changed the model economics, not the hardware dependency.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Открытые веса создают реальный exit на уровне модели-артефакта: DeepSeek R1 (январь 2025) сравнялся с frontier-рассуждением дёшево и стёр ~$589 млрд капитализации Nvidia за день — но обучался на кремнии Nvidia, так что изменил экономику моделей, а не зависимость от железа.", "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "DeepSeek", "open weights", "market shock" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "DeepSeek R1 shock", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "walks_back", "supports_arc" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_003", "EDGE_OPEN_001", "EDGE_OPEN_002" ] }, { "id": "openweight-02", "pass": "open_weight_exit", "topic": "Learning-curve constraint", "claim": "Open weights do not automatically transfer learning curves, chips, cloud or operational tempo: DeepSeek reportedly reverted R2 to Nvidia after Ascend instability, and SMIC ~30-50% 7nm yields constrain domestic chip scaling.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "How China's GLM-5 Works (SMIC yield, R2 reversion)", "name": "How China's GLM-5 Works (SMIC yield, R2 reversion)", "url": "https://letsdatascience.com/blog/china-trained-frontier-ai-model-glm-5-without-nvidia", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-02", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Huawei Ascend Production Ramp (SemiAnalysis)", "name": "Huawei Ascend Production Ramp (SemiAnalysis)", "url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/huawei-ascend-production-ramp", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "R2/Ascend reversion is reported, not officially confirmed", "Yield figures are analyst estimates" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The key test is exit vs change-of-metropole: open weights move the model layer, but tacit iteration, HBM, SMIC yields (~30-50% at 7nm) and ecosystem depth do not transfer — so sovereign AI on foreign chips is a change of dependency, not an exit.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Ключевой тест — exit против смены метрополии: открытые веса двигают слой моделей, но неявная итерация, HBM, выход SMIC (~30-50% на 7нм) и глубина экосистемы не переносятся — поэтому суверенный AI на чужих чипах — это смена зависимости, а не exit.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "learning curve", "yield", "tacit knowledge" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Learning-curve constraint", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "walks_back", "qualifies", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_003", "EDGE_CN_004", "EDGE_OPEN_002", "EDGE_CA_004" ] }, { "id": "openweight-03", "pass": "open_weight_exit", "topic": "DeepSeek V4 on Ascend", "claim": "DeepSeek's open-weight V4 (April 2026) launched with Huawei Ascend full support and gave Ascend early optimisation access ahead of Nvidia/AMD, with SMIC shares rising ~10% on the news — evidence the Chinese stack is moving toward serving (and partly training) on domestic silicon.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "China's DeepSeek releases V4 (CNBC)", "name": "China's DeepSeek releases V4 (CNBC)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/deepseek-v4-llm-preview-open-source-ai-competition-china.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-04-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-04", "caveats": [ "Extent of Ascend use in TRAINING (vs inference) remains unclear (CNBC)", "Marketing dimension to full-support claims" ], "corrections": [ "State that training-vs-inference Ascend share is unconfirmed" ], "recommended_phrasing": "The trajectory is real but unfinished: DeepSeek V4 (April 2026) shipped with Huawei Ascend full support and priority optimisation, but how much training (vs inference) ran on Ascend is unconfirmed — serving independence is closer than training independence.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Траектория реальна, но не завершена: DeepSeek V4 (апрель 2026) вышел с полной поддержкой Huawei Ascend и приоритетной оптимизацией, но сколько обучения (против инференса) шло на Ascend — не подтверждено: независимость по инференсу ближе, чем по обучению.", "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "DeepSeek V4", "Ascend", "serving vs training" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "DeepSeek V4 on Ascend", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "qualifies" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_004" ] }, { "id": "openweight-04", "pass": "open_weight_exit", "topic": "Sovereign-AI on foreign foundations", "claim": "Most national sovereign AI programmes (India, UK, Gulf, EU, Norway) are built on Nvidia chips, US/foreign cloud and US/Chinese models — the dominant pattern is sovereign branding atop foreign foundations.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Built for Purpose? EU AI Gigafactories (Interface)", "name": "Built for Purpose? EU AI Gigafactories (Interface)", "url": "https://www.interface-eu.org/publications/ai-gigafactories", "type": "Background / tertiary", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "India Fuels Its AI Mission With NVIDIA", "name": "India Fuels Its AI Mission With NVIDIA", "url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/india-ai-mission-infrastructure-models/", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "~95% of commercially available AI compute is US/China-operated (Hawkins et al.)" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Across India, the UK, the Gulf, Norway and the EU, sovereign AI overwhelmingly means sovereign branding on foreign foundations — Nvidia chips, foreign cloud, US/Chinese models — which is exactly the tiered-dependence the structural-power thesis predicts.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "В Индии, UK, Заливе, Норвегии и ЕС суверенный AI в подавляющем большинстве означает суверенный брендинг на чужом фундаменте — чипы Nvidia, иностранное облако, модели США/Китая — ровно та тиерная зависимость, которую предсказывает тезис о структурной власти.", "stack_layer": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "sovereign AI", "dependence", "tiering" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Sovereign-AI on foreign foundations", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "parallel", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_GULF_005", "EDGE_OPEN_003", "EDGE_OPEN_004" ] }, { "id": "scale-09", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Stanford primary aggregate (2026)", "claim": "Stanford AI Index 2026 primary figures: global private AI investment $344.7B in 2025 (+127.5% YoY), global corporate AI investment $581.7B (+130%), US private $285.9B vs China $12.4B (23.1x); US 50 notable models vs China 30; US researcher inflow -89% since 2017.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "C", "money_status": "private_and_corporate_investment_reported", "sources": [ { "title": "Inside the AI Index: 12 Takeaways (Stanford HAI)", "name": "Inside the AI Index: 12 Takeaways (Stanford HAI)", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/news/inside-the-ai-index-12-takeaways-from-the-2026-report", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-05-01", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "The 2026 AI Index Report (Stanford HAI)", "name": "The 2026 AI Index Report (Stanford HAI)", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-2026", "caveats": [ "Investment figures are private/corporate as tracked; understate China per Stanford", "Notable-model counts use Stanford's notable-model methodology" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Per the Stanford AI Index 2026 primary tables: global private AI investment hit $344.7B in 2025 (+127.5%) and corporate AI investment $581.7B (+130%), with the US at $285.9B vs China's $12.4B (23.1x) and the US producing 50 notable models to China's 30 — concentration is extreme, but Stanford flags the private figure understates China.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "По первичным таблицам Stanford AI Index 2026: глобальные частные инвестиции в AI достигли $344.7 млрд в 2025 (+127.5%), корпоративные — $581.7 млрд (+130%); США $285.9 млрд против $12.4 млрд у Китая (23.1x); США выпустили 50 заметных моделей против 30 у Китая — концентрация крайняя, но Стэнфорд отмечает, что частная цифра занижает Китай.", "stack_layer": [ "finance_rent" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "Stanford AI Index", "aggregate investment", "primary" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Stanford primary aggregate (2026)", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "export-13", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "Model-layer export control (Fable 5 / Mythos 5)", "claim": "On 12 June 2026 the US Commerce Department (Secretary Lutnick) issued an export-control directive requiring Anthropic to suspend all access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national inside or outside the US (including foreign-national employees), with a license now required to export, re-export or domestically transfer those models; Anthropic disabled both globally to comply and disputes the basis.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 (Anthropic)", "name": "Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 (Anthropic)", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-06-12", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Anthropic Says US Orders Halt to Foreign Access for Fable 5, Mythos 5 (Bloomberg)", "name": "Anthropic Says US Orders Halt to Foreign Access for Fable 5, Mythos 5 (Bloomberg)", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-13/anthropic-says-us-limits-foreign-access-to-fable-5-mythos-5", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Trump admin blocks foreign access to Anthropic's most powerful AI (Axios)", "name": "Trump admin blocks foreign access to Anthropic's most powerful AI (Axios)", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/12/anthropic-trump-mythos-fable-national-security", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-12", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-12", "caveats": [ "Directive received 5:21pm ET June 12; govt has not published the order text (GAP on primary FR/license)", "Trigger reported as a third-party jailbreak claim; per WSJ, Amazon CEO Jassy raised concerns to the White House; Semafor reported fears of China-linked access — none independently confirmed", "Anthropic says it was given only verbal evidence of a narrow jailbreak and that the capability is widely available (e.g., GPT-5.5)" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The clearest evidence that export controls have reached the knowledge layer: on 12 June 2026 Commerce ordered Anthropic to bar all foreign-national access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 (license now required to export/transfer the models), and Anthropic disabled them worldwide to comply while disputing the basis — a frontier model treated as a controlled munition.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Самое явное свидетельство, что экспортный контроль дошёл до слоя знания: 12 июня 2026 Минторг США обязал Anthropic заблокировать доступ к Fable 5 и Mythos 5 для всех иностранцев (теперь нужна лицензия на экспорт/передачу моделей), и Anthropic отключил их по всему миру, оспаривая основание — frontier-модель как контролируемое вооружение.", "stack_layer": [ "model_weights" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "model export control", "Mythos", "Fable", "knowledge structure" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Model-layer export control (Fable 5 / Mythos 5)", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-14", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "DoD supply-chain-risk label + Anthropic lawsuit + Mythos cleared to ~100 orgs", "claim": "After negotiations collapsed, the DoD declared Anthropic a 'supply chain risk' (a label historically reserved for foreign adversaries, requiring defense contractors to certify they will not use Claude in military work); Anthropic sued the administration to reverse the blacklisting; on 26 June 2026 Commerce granted Anthropic permission to release Mythos 5 to roughly 100 vetted US companies and federal agencies, but did not restore Fable 5.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "Trump admin allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to some companies, agencies (CNBC)", "name": "Trump admin allows Anthropic to release Mythos AI to some companies, agencies (CNBC)", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/26/us-government-anthropic-claude-mythos5-ai.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Anthropic's Mythos Recall and the White House's Missing AI Safety Playbook (TechPolicy.Press)", "name": "Anthropic's Mythos Recall and the White House's Missing AI Safety Playbook (TechPolicy.Press)", "url": "https://www.techpolicy.press/anthropics-mythos-recall-and-the-white-houses-missing-ai-safety-playbook/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-22", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06", "caveats": [ "Litigation ongoing; outcome unknown", "Negotiations led by co-founder Tom Brown (replacing Amodei); fast-moving" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The state exercised raw control over a private firm's flagship product: the DoD branded Anthropic a 'supply-chain risk' (a label normally for foreign adversaries) and barred its models from military work, Anthropic sued, and Commerce then cleared Mythos 5 for ~100 vetted US organisations (June 26) while keeping Fable 5 dark — control via directive and procurement, not ownership.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Государство применило прямой контроль над флагманским продуктом частной компании: DoD объявил Anthropic 'supply-chain risk' (ярлык обычно для иностранных противников) и запретил её модели в военной работе, Anthropic подал в суд, а затем Минторг разрешил Mythos 5 для ~100 проверенных организаций США (26 июня), оставив Fable 5 отключённым — контроль через директиву и закупки, а не собственность.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "DoD", "supply chain risk", "lawsuit", "Mythos", "procurement control" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "DoD supply-chain-risk label + Anthropic lawsuit + Mythos cleared to ~100 orgs", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "export-15", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "2026 chip toll-and-throttle regime (closes the chip-status gap)", "claim": "By 2026 the chip regime is graduated, not a wall: BIS (15 Jan 2026, FR 2026-00789) shifted H200 and AMD MI325X to case-by-case review with a 25% tariff, 50% volume cap, third-party testing, KYC and US inspection; Blackwell (B200/GB200/GB300) remains presumption-of-denial; H20 sales were re-permitted under the 15% arrangement; Huawei plans to ship 600,000 Ascend 910C in 2026; Beijing remains ambivalent about importing.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "revenue_tax", "sources": [ { "title": "BIS revises license review policy for semiconductors to China (bis.gov)", "name": "BIS revises license review policy for semiconductors to China (bis.gov)", "url": "https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-01-15", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Nvidia gets US license for small amount of H200 exports to China (Bloomberg)", "name": "Nvidia gets US license for small amount of H200 exports to China (Bloomberg)", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-gets-us-license-small-020053211.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-02-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-12 to 2026-06", "caveats": [ "Whether Beijing approves H200 imports is unresolved (China discouraged purchases, as with H20)", "Blackwell denial could be hardened by the AI OVERWATCH Act (2-yr statutory ban) if enacted", "Huawei shipment numbers are targets, not verified output" ], "corrections": [ "Replace 'advanced chips are banned from China' with the graduated toll-and-throttle description" ], "recommended_phrasing": "By 2026 the chip lever is a toll-and-throttle regime, not a wall: BIS put H200 and MI325X on case-by-case review (25% tariff, 50% cap, KYC, US inspection), Blackwell stays denied, and the H20 flows again under the 15% arrangement — while Beijing throttles from its side and Huawei targets 600,000 Ascend 910C in 2026. State export control now meters access by generation, price and surveillance.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "К 2026 чиповый рычаг — это режим 'вентиль с пошлиной', а не стена: BIS перевёл H200 и MI325X на case-by-case (25% пошлина, 50% потолок, KYC, инспекция в США), Blackwell остаётся под denial, а H20 снова идёт по схеме с 15% — при этом Пекин дросселирует со своей стороны, а Huawei целится в 600 000 Ascend 910C в 2026. Госэкспортконтроль теперь дозирует доступ по поколению, цене и слежке.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "H200", "Blackwell", "toll regime", "case-by-case", "Huawei Ascend" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "2026 chip toll-and-throttle regime (closes the chip-status gap)", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "qualifies" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_TOLL_003", "EDGE_TOLL_004" ] }, { "id": "cyber-06", "pass": "machine_speed_cyber", "topic": "China's 360 Tulongfeng counter-claim", "claim": "At ISC.AI 2026 (24 June), Qihoo 360 (US Entity List since 2020) unveiled 'Yitian Tulong' (Tulongfeng for discovery, Yitianzhen for defense), claiming 'Mythos-equivalent' capability via a multi-agent swarm and 3,432 vulnerabilities found including 105 confirmed by Chinese authorities; Reuters could not independently verify the claims and 360 published no technical evidence.", "status": "disputed", "evidence_level": "D", "sources": [ { "title": "China's 360 says it has developed tools to match Anthropic's Mythos (Reuters)", "name": "China's 360 says it has developed tools to match Anthropic's Mythos (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/china-360-says-developed-tools-121315251.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Chinese cybersecurity company claims a better-than-Mythos bug finder (The Register)", "name": "Chinese cybersecurity company claims a better-than-Mythos bug finder (The Register)", "url": "https://www.theregister.com/security/2026/06/26/chinese-cybersecurity-company-claims-its-built-a-better-than-mythos-bug-finder/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-24", "caveats": [ "Vendor capability claim; Reuters explicitly could not verify; no technical evidence published", "360 is on the US Entity List (2020) for alleged military links; CVERC amplifies its research", "Zhou acknowledges Chinese frontier models lag US by 20-30%" ], "corrections": [ "Do NOT state as fact that China has a Mythos-equivalent; it is an unverified vendor claim" ], "recommended_phrasing": "China's counter-claim is loud but unverified: Qihoo 360 says its Tulongfeng swarm matches Mythos and found 3,432 bugs (105 confirmed by Chinese authorities), but Reuters could not verify it and 360 published no technical evidence — treat as a disputed vendor claim that signals strategic intent (and anxiety about 'one-way transparency'), not a demonstrated capability.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Китайский контр-ответ громкий, но неподтверждённый: Qihoo 360 заявляет, что её рой Tulongfeng сравним с Mythos и нашёл 3 432 бага (105 подтверждены китайскими властями), но Reuters не смог это проверить, а 360 не опубликовала технических доказательств — это спорное заявление вендора, сигнализирующее стратегическое намерение (и тревогу о 'one-way transparency'), а не продемонстрированную способность.", "stack_layer": [ "cyber_security_patch" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "china", "keywords": [ "Qihoo 360", "Tulongfeng", "disputed", "one-way transparency" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "China's 360 Tulongfeng counter-claim", "confidence": "D", "geography": [ "China" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_as_claim_not_fact", "challenges" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_005", "EDGE_CN_006" ] }, { "id": "cyber-07", "pass": "machine_speed_cyber", "topic": "The weapon is access asymmetry, not raw capability", "claim": "The structural-power core of the Mythos episode is access asymmetry, not a settled capability leap: Mythos is restricted to ~40 vetted organisations under Project Glasswing and US-person-only after the June directive, so opponents frame it as a 'cyber nuclear weapon' because of the access ban (one-way transparency), while Anthropic's own review found the cited jailbreak surfaced only minor, previously-known vulnerabilities and that comparable capability is widely available (e.g., GPT-5.5).", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Statement on the US directive (Anthropic, capability-widely-available point)", "name": "Statement on the US directive (Anthropic, capability-widely-available point)", "url": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2026-06-12", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "China's 360 says it has developed tools to match Mythos (Reuters; 'one-way transparency' framing)", "name": "China's 360 says it has developed tools to match Mythos (Reuters; 'one-way transparency' framing)", "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/china-360-says-developed-tools-121315251.html", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-04 to 2026-06", "caveats": [ "Both sides have incentives: Anthropic downplays risk; US/360 amplify it", "Mythos-class autonomous exploit-chaining is an Anthropic disclosure, not independently benchmarked (see V4 rediscovery counter-preprints)" ], "corrections": [ "Frame the leverage as WHO can access the capability under what conditions, not as 'AI now finds 0-days at will'" ], "recommended_phrasing": "The lever here is access, not magic: Mythos is gated to ~40 Glasswing organisations and US persons, which is precisely why rivals call it a 'cyber nuclear weapon' — a one-way-transparency advantage — even as Anthropic argues the specific flagged jailbreak found only minor known bugs and similar capability exists elsewhere. The structural-power claim should rest on controlled, asymmetric access, not on a settled machine-speed-0day fact.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Рычаг здесь — доступ, а не магия: Mythos закрыт для ~40 организаций Glasswing и лиц США, и именно поэтому соперники называют его 'кибер-ядерным оружием' — преимущество one-way transparency — хотя Anthropic утверждает, что конкретный jailbreak нашёл лишь мелкие известные баги, а сопоставимая способность есть и у других. Тезис о структурной власти должен опираться на контролируемый, асимметричный доступ, а не на 'устоявшийся факт' machine-speed 0-day.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "access asymmetry", "one-way transparency", "Glasswing", "machine speed honesty" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "The weapon is access asymmetry, not raw capability", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_006" ] }, { "id": "export-16", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "Legal instrument and contested basis of the model-export directive", "claim": "The June 12 2026 action was a BIS 'is-informed' letter (signed by Secretary Lutnick) invoking ECRA 50 U.S.C. 4817(b)(1) and EAR 15 C.F.R. 744.22(b) to require a validated license for any foreign-national access to Mythos 5 / Fable 5 — the first such use against an AI model; the government has not published the order, and multiple legal experts argue the basis is shaky (SaaS is not an EAR 'item', the worldwide scope exceeds 744.22's country list, First Amendment concerns), while 80+ security executives and G7 governments urged restoration.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "Read the Lutnick Letter That Led Anthropic to Disable Mythos (Bloomberg)", "name": "Read the Lutnick Letter That Led Anthropic to Disable Mythos (Bloomberg)", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-16/read-the-lutnick-letter-that-led-anthropic-to-disable-mythos", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-16", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "A Kill Switch for Frontier AI (Lawfare)", "name": "A Kill Switch for Frontier AI (Lawfare)", "url": "https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/a-kill-switch-for-frontier-ai", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-16", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Commerce Restricted Access to Anthropic's Models: What Comes Next? (CSIS)", "name": "Commerce Restricted Access to Anthropic's Models: What Comes Next? (CSIS)", "url": "https://www.csis.org/analysis/department-commerce-restricted-access-anthropics-latest-models-what-comes-next", "type": "Background / tertiary", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-12", "caveats": [ "EVENT verified (Bloomberg has the letter; authorities identified); LEGAL VALIDITY is contested and untested in court", "Government has not published the official order text — primary gov document is a gap", "CSIS notes the AI Diffusion Rule already covered model weights but is unenforced since May 2025, so this one-off 'is-informed' letter is the workaround" ], "corrections": [ "Do not state the legal basis is settled; phrase as 'contested' / 'untested'" ], "recommended_phrasing": "The mechanism is a BIS 'is-informed' letter under ECRA/EAR military-intelligence authorities — the first applied to an AI model — but its validity is openly contested (services arguably fall outside export law, the worldwide scope exceeds the statute's country list, and there are free-speech concerns), and 80+ security leaders plus G7 governments pushed back. Use it as evidence of the state reaching for export-control law to govern models, while flagging the legal fragility.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Механизм — это 'is-informed' письмо BIS на основании ECRA/EAR (military-intelligence) — впервые применённое к AI-модели — но его валидность открыто оспаривается (услуги, вероятно, вне экспортного права; всемирный охват шире странового списка закона; вопросы свободы слова), и 80+ лидеров безопасности плюс правительства G7 выступили против. Используйте как свидетельство того, что государство тянется к экспортному праву для управления моделями, отмечая правовую хрупкость.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "is-informed letter", "ECRA", "EAR 744.22", "contested", "model export" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Legal instrument and contested basis of the model-export directive", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "refines" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_EXPORT_006", "EDGE_EXPORT_007" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-09", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Palantir as consolidated decision-OS (primary contract record)", "claim": "On 31 July 2025 the U.S. Army awarded Palantir an Enterprise Agreement (contract W519TC-25-D-0039) consolidating 75 contracts (15 prime + 60 related) into one 10-year vehicle with a $10B ceiling — but with $0 obligated at award; the Army states the $10B is 'the maximum potential value ... not any specific obligations', positioning Palantir as the Army's consolidated software/data backbone.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "contract_ceiling_not_obligated", "sources": [ { "title": "U.S. Army Awards Enterprise Service Agreement (army.mil)", "name": "U.S. Army Awards Enterprise Service Agreement (army.mil)", "url": "https://www.army.mil/article/287506/u_s_army_awards_enterprise_service_agreement_to_enhance_military_readiness_and_drive_operational_efficiency", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-07-31", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Army plans big shakeup; $10B Palantir deal (DefenseScoop)", "name": "Army plans big shakeup; $10B Palantir deal (DefenseScoop)", "url": "https://defensescoop.com/2025/07/31/army-palantir-software-enterprise-agreement-10-billion/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2025-07-31", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2025-07-31", "caveats": [ "$10B is a CEILING; action obligation was $0 at award — do not report as money spent", "IDIQ/Enterprise Agreement; actual spend depends on task orders over 10 years", "Single bidder (sole-source transition of existing Palantir prime/sub contracts)" ], "corrections": [ "Cite as 'up to $10B ceiling, $0 obligated at award', not '$10B awarded/spent'" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Palantir is being made the Army's consolidated decision-and-data backbone: a single Enterprise Agreement (W519TC-25-D-0039) folded 75 contracts into one 10-year vehicle with a $10B ceiling — though $0 was obligated at award, so treat the $10B as maximum potential value, not spend. The structural point is consolidation and lock-in, not the headline number.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Palantir делают консолидированным decision-and-data-бэкбоном Армии: одно Enterprise Agreement (W519TC-25-D-0039) свернуло 75 контрактов в один 10-летний механизм с потолком $10 млрд — но на момент награждения обязано $0, так что $10 млрд — это максимальный потенциал, а не расход. Структурный смысл — консолидация и lock-in, а не громкая цифра.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "Palantir", "Army", "W519TC-25-D-0039", "consolidation", "ceiling not spend" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Palantir as consolidated decision-OS (primary contract record)", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports", "supports_with_caveat" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_004", "EDGE_PAL_005" ] }, { "id": "export-17", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "Control leakage + enforcement (Malaysia transshipment seizure)", "claim": "On 5 June 2026 Malaysian customs seized 72 servers containing advanced AI chips (RM52.9M / ~$12.93M) at the KLIA free-trade zone, declared as 'computer components' and destined for re-export to another Asian country; the probe runs under Malaysia's Strategic Trade Act 2010, after Malaysia imposed controls on US-origin high-performance chips in 2025 under US pressure.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "seized_goods_value", "sources": [ { "title": "Malaysia customs seizes AI chips worth $13 million at Kuala Lumpur airport (Reuters)", "name": "Malaysia customs seizes AI chips worth $13 million at Kuala Lumpur airport (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/malaysia-customs-seizes-ai-chips-worth-13-mln-kuala-lumpur-airport-2026-06-26/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Customs Dept seizes 72 servers with AI chips worth RM53mil (The Star)", "name": "Customs Dept seizes 72 servers with AI chips worth RM53mil (The Star)", "url": "https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2026/06/26/customs-dept-seizes-72-servers-with-ai-chips-worth-rm53mil", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06-05", "caveats": [ "A single seizure proves attempts and enforcement, not total leakage volume", "Chip model, final destination, alleged US-export-control nexus and prosecution outcome not yet public" ], "corrections": [ "Use as evidence of BOTH leakage and policing; do not claim controls are airtight" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Controls leak but also police: Malaysia seized 72 AI-chip servers (~$12.93M) at KLIA in June 2026, declared as 'computer components' for onward re-export — concrete proof that transit states are being folded into the enforcement layer. The right formula is that structural power is cost, delay, risk and surveillance, not perfect denial; leverage does not have to be airtight to be structural.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Контроль протекает, но и полицирует: в июне 2026 Малайзия изъяла 72 сервера с AI-чипами (~$12.93 млн) в KLIA, задекларированных как 'computer components' под дальнейший re-export — конкретное доказательство, что транзитные страны встраиваются в слой enforcement. Правильная формула: структурная власть — это цена, задержка, риск и слежка, а не идеальный запрет; leverage не обязан быть герметичным, чтобы быть структурным.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "transshipment", "Malaysia", "leakage", "enforcement", "Strategic Trade Act" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Control leakage + enforcement (Malaysia transshipment seizure)", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "scale-10", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Energy/grid as bottom stack layer (real but region-specific, partly flexible)", "claim": "AI data-center load is a structural energy/grid layer: modeling projects the six leading firms rising from ~118 TWh (2024) to 239-295 TWh by 2030 with regional power-system stress, yet real-world work shows GPU clusters can curtail/shift workloads (a 130 kW cluster demonstrated grid-responsiveness) and load flexibility can cut grid investment/operating costs 3-21% — so the bottleneck is real but location-dependent and partly manageable.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "AI data-center concentrated siting and power-system stress (arXiv 2604.06198)", "name": "AI data-center concentrated siting and power-system stress (arXiv 2604.06198)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06198", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Power-flexible AI data centers, 130 kW real-world cluster (arXiv 2606.25098)", "name": "Power-flexible AI data centers, 130 kW real-world cluster (arXiv 2606.25098)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25098", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-06-23", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "AI load flexibility reduces grid cost 3-21% (arXiv 2604.05376)", "name": "AI load flexibility reduces grid cost 3-21% (arXiv 2604.05376)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.05376", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-07", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2024-2030", "caveats": [ "All four supporting studies are preprints pending peer review", "Flexibility does not always reduce required generation capacity; benefits diminish and are region-specific", "Cross-check projections with IEA/EPRI/NERC and utility disclosures" ], "corrections": [ "Do not frame energy as an absolute, uniform bottleneck; frame as local and software-manageable" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Energy is the bottom of the stack and a real constraint — six leading firms' electricity use is modeled to roughly double-to-triple to 239-295 TWh by 2030 with local grid stress — but it is not absolute destiny: GPU clusters can be made grid-responsive (curtail/shift load), trimming grid costs 3-21% in some settings. Frame energy as a structural layer whose constraint is regional and partly software-manageable, not a uniform wall.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Энергия — это нижний слой стека и реальное ограничение: потребление шести ведущих фирм по модели вырастает примерно в 2-2.5 раза до 239-295 ТВт·ч к 2030 с локальным grid stress — но это не абсолютная судьба: GPU-кластеры можно сделать grid-responsive (curtail/shift нагрузки), срезая затраты сети на 3-21% в части случаев. Формулируйте энергию как структурный слой, чьё ограничение регионально и частично управляемо софтом, а не как однородную стену.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "energy", "grid stress", "flexible compute", "TWh", "region-specific" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Energy/grid as bottom stack layer (real but region-specific, partly flexible)", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "mitigates" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_ENERGY_001", "EDGE_ENERGY_002", "EDGE_ENERGY_005" ] }, { "id": "scale-11", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Data-center political surface (US backlash)", "claim": "AI infrastructure now has a visible political surface: an Axios/Milltown poll (June 2026, ~6,872 respondents) found data-center backlash functioning as a proxy for broader AI anxiety, with roughly half of respondents supporting a temporary ban on new data-center construction.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "Axios/Milltown poll: AI data-center backlash (Axios)", "name": "Axios/Milltown poll: AI data-center backlash (Axios)", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/22/ai-data-center-backlash-poll", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-22", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06", "caveats": [ "Backlash may be a proxy for broader AI anxiety, complicating causal claims about local data-center impacts", "Full crosstabs, sampling and question wording needed" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "The infrastructure layer has a politics: an Axios/Milltown poll (June 2026) found about half of respondents back a temporary ban on new data-center builds, with the backlash reading as a proxy for broader AI anxiety — public resistance is now a real counterforce that can slow deployment, independent of grid physics.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "У инфраструктурного слоя есть политика: опрос Axios/Milltown (июнь 2026) показал, что около половины респондентов поддерживают временный запрет на новые стройки дата-центров, а сам backlash читается как прокси более широкой тревоги об AI — общественное сопротивление теперь реальная противодействующая сила, способная замедлять развёртывание независимо от физики сети.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "data-center backlash", "poll", "political surface", "legitimacy" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Data-center political surface (US backlash)", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_ENERGY_004" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-10", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "War as a data flywheel", "claim": "War is becoming a data flywheel for military AI: in Ukraine, where Reuters reports the military is currently the largest AI consumer and which plans domestic AI compute, a corpus of 500,000+ hours of conflict drone footage is reported to be used to train computer-vision and autonomous-drone models.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "500k+ hours of Ukraine drone footage to train AI models (TechRadar)", "name": "500k+ hours of Ukraine drone footage to train AI models (TechRadar)", "url": "https://www.techradar.com/pro/half-a-million-hours-of-ukraine-conflict-drone-footage-to-be-used-to-train-and-deploy-new-ai-models-for-autonomous-targeting-drone-swarms", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-23", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Ukraine domestic AI compute; military largest AI consumer (Reuters)", "name": "Ukraine domestic AI compute; military largest AI consumer (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/ukraine-plans-domestic-ai-computing-capacity-with-kyivstar-2026-06-26/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06", "caveats": [ "Drone-footage corpus is tech-press/company-reported; needs procurement, partner and dataset-governance trail", "Frame as a data flywheel, NOT as proof of fielded fully autonomous targeting" ], "corrections": [ "Do not claim fully autonomous targeting from this evidence alone" ], "recommended_phrasing": "War is a data flywheel: operational use generates the training data that feeds the next models. In Ukraine the military is reportedly the largest AI consumer and is moving toward sovereign compute, with 500,000+ hours of drone footage reported as training data for vision and autonomous-drone systems. Phrase this as a telemetry/learning-curve advantage, not as evidence that fully autonomous targeting is fielded.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Война — это data flywheel: боевое применение порождает обучающие данные, питающие следующие модели. В Украине военные, по сообщениям, крупнейший потребитель AI и движутся к суверенному compute, при 500 000+ часах дрон-видео как обучающих данных для систем зрения и автономных дронов. Формулируйте как преимущество телеметрии/кривой обучения, а не как доказательство развёрнутого полностью автономного таргетинга.", "stack_layer": [ "data_telemetry" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "data flywheel", "Ukraine", "drone footage", "telemetry" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "War as a data flywheel", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_WAR_001", "EDGE_WAR_002", "EDGE_WAR_003" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-11", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Mass militarization of the AI/drone layer (South Korea)", "claim": "Military AI is entering mass force-structure planning: South Korea announced plans to train 500,000 drone operators and deploy tens of thousands of drones (incl. AI-based swarm systems) while avoiding Chinese components, though drone targets were scaled down (from 110,000 by 2029 to ~60,000, ~11,000 expected in 2026); a preregistered nine-country survey (n=9,000) finds publics conditionally permissive toward military AI, with unease concentrated on fully autonomous lethal force.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "South Korea to train 500,000 drone operators (Reuters)", "name": "South Korea to train 500,000 drone operators (Reuters)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-expand-drone-forces-train-500000-operators-ministry-says-2026-06-26/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Preregistered nine-country survey on military AI (arXiv 2605.25196)", "name": "Preregistered nine-country survey on military AI (arXiv 2605.25196)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25196", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-05-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026", "caveats": [ "Drone/operator figures are procurement plans, scaled down from earlier goals", "Component-sovereignty (no-Chinese-parts) is a production-structure signal", "Public legitimacy is scenario-dependent; opposition to autonomy can still constrain deployment" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Military AI is moving from elite labs into mass force structure: South Korea plans to train 500,000 drone operators and field tens of thousands of drones with AI swarms while excluding Chinese components — a security-and-production-structure move — even as targets were trimmed. A nine-country survey (n=9,000) suggests publics are conditionally permissive, with the red line at fully autonomous lethal force, so legitimacy enables scale-up but constrains full autonomy.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Военный AI выходит из элитных лабораторий в массовую структуру сил: Южная Корея планирует подготовить 500 000 операторов дронов и развернуть десятки тысяч дронов с AI-роями, исключая китайские компоненты — ход в структуре безопасности и производства — хотя цели урезаны. Девятистрановый опрос (n=9 000) показывает: публика условно допускает военный AI, с красной линией на полностью автономной летальной силе, так что легитимность разрешает масштабирование, но ограничивает полную автономию.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "South Korea", "drones", "swarm", "component sovereignty", "public legitimacy" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Mass militarization of the AI/drone layer (South Korea)", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "qualifies" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_WAR_004", "EDGE_WAR_005" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-12", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Finance moves from AI adoption to governed shutdown (kill switch)", "claim": "Financial AI is shifting from adoption to formal operational governance: the RBI's draft AI/ML model-risk framework (June 2026, feedback to 24 July 2026) adds board accountability, independent validation, human oversight and corrective-action/decommissioning ('kill-switch') logic, alongside US bank-regulator scrutiny of AI in lending/KYC/sanctions and UK finance AI stress tests.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "RBI proposes guidelines for banks to manage AI risks (Reuters/Economic Times)", "name": "RBI proposes guidelines for banks to manage AI risks (Reuters/Economic Times)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/rbi-proposes-guidelines-banks-manage-ai-risks-2026-06-24/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026-06", "caveats": [ "Draft rule; final obligations, supervisory enforcement and actual kill-switch maturity remain unknown", "'Kill switch' framing is from secondary coverage (Economic Times); the draft uses decommissioning/corrective-action language" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Critical-business AI is being governed, not just adopted: the RBI's June 2026 draft requires board accountability, independent validation, human oversight and the ability to take corrective action up to decommissioning a model — coverage frames this as a 'kill switch' — with parallel US bank-regulator scrutiny and UK finance stress tests. This is strong evidence for the critical-decision-support governance layer, though final rules and implementation maturity are still open.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Критически-бизнесовый AI теперь управляют, а не просто внедряют: июньский 2026 draft RBI требует board accountability, независимую валидацию, human oversight и возможность корректирующих действий вплоть до decommissioning модели — в прессе это называют 'kill switch' — при параллельном надзоре банковских регуляторов США и стресс-тестах в финансах UK. Это сильное свидетельство слоя governance критического decision-support, хотя финальные правила и зрелость внедрения ещё открыты.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "finance" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "RBI", "kill switch", "model risk", "decommissioning", "finance governance" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Finance moves from AI adoption to governed shutdown (kill switch)", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_FIN_003", "EDGE_FIN_004" ] }, { "id": "cogsec-13", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "Decision sovereignty: supplier boundary control and its mitigation", "claim": "The precise strategic risk once private models enter military workflows is not 'a private model commands the army' but erosion of decision sovereignty — the supplier can influence versions, filters, usage boundaries and availability; a 2026 framework argues this is mitigable by keeping routing, constraints, logging, escalation and action-authorization state-owned and treating vendor models as replaceable modules.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "C", "sources": [ { "title": "Decision-sovereignty framework for military AI (arXiv 2604.20867)", "name": "Decision-sovereignty framework for military AI (arXiv 2604.20867)", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.20867", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Palantir Maven becomes program-of-record (expanded)", "name": "Palantir Maven becomes program-of-record (expanded)", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-adopt-palantir-ai-as-core-us-military-system-memo-says-2026-03-20/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026", "caveats": [ "Framework is a preprint; needs procurement examples actually implementing replaceability", "Mitigation is conditional on the state genuinely owning orchestration" ], "corrections": [ "Frame the risk as supplier boundary control, not 'AI commands the military'" ], "recommended_phrasing": "State the risk precisely: embedding vendor models in military workflows erodes decision sovereignty — the supplier shapes versions, filters, usage limits and availability — but it is not fatal. The governance remedy is sovereign orchestration: keep routing, constraints, logging, escalation and action-authorization state-owned and treat vendor models as replaceable modules. Use this as the solution section, paired with the Palantir/Maven dependence evidence.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Сформулируйте риск точно: встраивание вендорских моделей в военные процессы размывает decision sovereignty — поставщик формирует версии, фильтры, границы применения и доступность — но это не фатально. Управленческое решение — суверенная оркестрация: держать routing, ограничения, логирование, эскалацию и авторизацию действий в собственности государства, а вендорские модели — как заменяемые модули. Используйте как раздел-решение в паре с доказательствами зависимости Palantir/Maven.", "stack_layer": [ "decision_support_cognition" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "decision sovereignty", "supplier boundary control", "model replaceability", "sovereign orchestration" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Decision sovereignty: supplier boundary control and its mitigation", "confidence": "C", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_DS_001", "EDGE_DS_002" ] }, { "id": "export-18", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "Transshipment scale + enforcement escalation (DOJ cases)", "claim": "DOJ prosecutions quantify material chip-control leakage AND escalating enforcement: the SDNY Super Micro case (unsealed Mar 2026, the largest US AI-hardware export prosecution) alleges ~$2.5B of Nvidia servers routed to China via a SE Asian shell (~$510M moved in weeks); ALX Solutions (Aug 2025) ran 20+ shipments through Singapore/Malaysia; Janford Realtor (Nov 2025) exported 400 A100 via Malaysia/Thailand with $3.89M in PRC wires; and Taiwan opened its first criminal chip-smuggling prosecution (May 2026) as Malaysia began requiring AI-chip permits.", "status": "partially_verified", "evidence_level": "A", "money_status": "alleged_smuggled_value", "sources": [ { "title": "Two Chinese Nationals charged (ALX Solutions, transshipment via Singapore/Malaysia) — DOJ", "name": "Two Chinese Nationals charged (ALX Solutions, transshipment via Singapore/Malaysia) — DOJ", "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-chinese-nationals-arrested-complaint-alleging-they-illegally-shipped-china-sensitive", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-08-04", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "U.S. Citizens and Chinese Nationals Arrested (Janford, 400 A100 via Malaysia/Thailand) — DOJ", "name": "U.S. Citizens and Chinese Nationals Arrested (Janford, 400 A100 via Malaysia/Thailand) — DOJ", "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-citizens-and-chinese-nationals-arrested-exporting-artificial-intelligence-technology", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2025-11-20", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Super Micro $2.5B smuggling indictment; Taiwan first prosecution (TechTimes/Reuters/Tom's)", "name": "Super Micro $2.5B smuggling indictment; Taiwan first prosecution (TechTimes/Reuters/Tom's)", "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317083/20260524/nvidia-ai-chip-smuggling-draws-taiwans-first-criminal-prosecution-jensen-huang-rebukes-supermicro.htm", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-05-24", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2022-2026", "caveats": [ "Indictments are allegations (Super Micro/Janford not yet proven; Liaw pled not guilty, one defendant a fugitive)", "These are documented case values, NOT a total gray-market leakage estimate — total volume remains unquantified (GAP residual)", "Transit hubs (Taiwan/Singapore/Malaysia) historically under-policed; enforcement is now escalating" ], "corrections": [ "Cite case-level values, not a total leakage figure; pair leakage with the enforcement escalation" ], "recommended_phrasing": "Transshipment is real and large — the SDNY Super Micro case alleges ~$2.5B routed to China (about $510M in weeks), with separate DOJ cases (ALX via Singapore/Malaysia; Janford's 400 A100 via Malaysia/Thailand) — but enforcement is escalating in parallel (DOJ's largest-ever AI-hardware prosecution, Taiwan's first criminal case, Malaysia's new permits and a June seizure). The honest reading: controls leak yet impose growing cost, delay, risk and policing — leverage need not be airtight to be structural, and total leakage volume is still unquantified.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Transshipment реален и масштабен — дело Super Micro (SDNY) вменяет ~$2.5 млрд, направленных в Китай (около $510 млн за недели), плюс отдельные дела DOJ (ALX через Сингапур/Малайзию; Janford — 400 A100 через Малайзию/Таиланд) — но enforcement параллельно растёт (крупнейшее в истории США дело по AI-железу, первое уголовное дело Тайваня, новые разрешения Малайзии и июньское изъятие). Честный вывод: контроль протекает, но накладывает растущие цену, задержку, риск и полицирование — leverage не обязан быть герметичным, чтобы быть структурным, а суммарный объём утечки всё ещё не оценён.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "transshipment", "DOJ", "Super Micro", "Singapore", "Malaysia", "Taiwan", "enforcement" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Transshipment scale + enforcement escalation (DOJ cases)", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "scale-12", "pass": "scale_of_race", "topic": "Energy/grid constraint is materially binding the buildout", "claim": "The energy bottleneck is materially constraining the US AI buildout, not just rhetorical: Sightline Climate/Bloomberg find only ~5 GW of ~16 GW of announced 2026 US data-center capacity is under construction (30-50% delayed or cancelled), with transformer lead times of 3-5 years, switchgear sold out through 2028, interconnection queues of 3-7 years, plus tariffs and community opposition (Data Center Watch: 75+ projects / ~$130B blocked in Q1 2026; cancellations rose 2 to 6 to 25 across 2023-2025).", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "money_status": "blocked_or_cancelled_project_value", "sources": [ { "title": "Up to half of the world's data centers may be delayed this year (Latitude Media / Sightline)", "name": "Up to half of the world's data centers may be delayed this year (Latitude Media / Sightline)", "url": "https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/up-to-half-of-the-worlds-data-centers-may-be-delayed-this-year/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-02-27", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "75+ data-center build-outs worth $130B blocked in early 2026 (Tom's Hardware / Data Center Watch)", "name": "75+ data-center build-outs worth $130B blocked in early 2026 (Tom's Hardware / Data Center Watch)", "url": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/more-than-75-data-center-build-outs-worth-usd130-billion-have-been-successfully-blocked-in-the-first-four-months-of-2026-bipartisan-opposition-mounts-nationwide-over-fears-of-soaring-power-and-water-costs", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2026-04", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2026", "caveats": [ "Aggregator figures (Sightline, Data Center Watch, Heatmap, Baird) vary by definition and methodology", "Capital and demand stay high ($650B hyperscaler capex; demand 80 GW 2025 -> 150 GW 2028) — the gap is physical/political", "A standardized project-level registry is still missing" ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "Energy is not just a layer in theory but a binding constraint in practice: only ~5 of ~16 GW of announced 2026 US data-center capacity is actually being built, with 30-50% delayed or cancelled on transformers (3-5yr), switchgear (through 2028), interconnection (3-7yr) and a bipartisan local backlash (75+ projects / ~$130B blocked in Q1 2026). This anchors the bottom of the stack — and, paired with the flexibility evidence, shows the constraint is real but regionally and technologically contingent.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Энергия — не просто слой в теории, а связывающее ограничение на практике: из ~16 ГВт анонсированной на 2026 мощности дата-центров в США строится лишь ~5 ГВт, 30-50% отложено/отменено из-за трансформаторов (3-5 лет), switchgear (до 2028), подключения к сети (3-7 лет) и двухпартийного локального backlash (75+ проектов / ~$130 млрд заблокировано за Q1 2026). Это закрепляет нижний слой стека — и в паре с доказательствами гибкости показывает, что ограничение реально, но регионально и технологически обусловлено.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "production" ], "geographic_scope": "us", "keywords": [ "data-center cancellations", "grid constraint", "transformers", "interconnection", "backlash" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "Energy/grid constraint is materially binding the buildout", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "US" ] }, { "id": "timeline-01", "pass": "timeline_backfill", "topic": "2022-2023 were not empty", "claim": "2022-2023 were the formation phase of the AI-stack structural-power regime: industrial policy and first chip controls in 2022; model deployment, cloud lock-in, soft-law governance, China counter-controls, outbound investment controls and export-control loophole closure in 2023.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A/B", "sources": [ { "title": "CHIPS and Science Act, Congress.gov", "name": "CHIPS and Science Act, Congress.gov", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4346", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2022-08-09", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Introducing ChatGPT, OpenAI", "name": "Introducing ChatGPT, OpenAI", "url": "https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2022-11-30", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "NIST AI RMF 1.0", "name": "NIST AI RMF 1.0", "url": "https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2023-01-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "EO 14110, Federal Register", "name": "EO 14110, Federal Register", "url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/01/2023-24283/safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2023-11-01", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2022-2023", "caveats": [ "Backfill adds foundation events; it does not replace 2025-2026 as the densest evidence period." ], "corrections": [ "Do not render timeline with only one 2022 event and zero 2023 events." ], "recommended_phrasing": "The pre-2024 period is the formation phase: 2022 creates the industrial-policy and export-control base; 2023 turns the stack into a public, cloud-financed, governed and contested infrastructure.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Период до 2024 — это не пустота, а фаза сборки режима: 2022 даёт промышленную политику и первый экспортный контроль; 2023 превращает стек в публичную, cloud-financed, регулируемую и оспариваемую инфраструктуру.", "stack_layer": [ "multiple" ], "strange_structure": [ "multiple" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "timeline", "backfill", "formation phase" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "2022-2023 were not empty", "confidence": "A/B", "geography": [ "Global" ] }, { "id": "export-19", "pass": "weaponized_interdependence", "topic": "A800/H800 workaround-to-closure cycle", "claim": "The statement→workaround→closure pattern is visible already in 2022-2023: October 2022 controls led to Nvidia's China-specific A800/H800 adaptations, and the October 2023 BIS update tightened controls to close those loopholes.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "B", "sources": [ { "title": "AP: Commerce updates policies to stop China getting advanced chips", "name": "AP: Commerce updates policies to stop China getting advanced chips", "url": "https://apnews.com/article/78225ba8d1609137e859f68a80f6e91e", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2023-10-17", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Reuters: Nvidia offers new advanced chip for China that meets U.S. export controls", "name": "Reuters: Nvidia offers new advanced chip for China that meets U.S. export controls", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-nvidia-offers-new-advanced-chip-china-that-meets-us-export-controls-2022-11-07/", "type": "Secondary source", "date": "2022-11-07", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2022-2023", "caveats": [ "Add primary BIS rule for thresholds; Reuters URL may need archive access." ], "corrections": [ "Do not show controls as one clean 2022 event followed by silence; show the loop." ], "recommended_phrasing": "Export controls were a loop from the start: rule → compliant downgraded SKU → updated rule. The A800/H800 episode is the early prototype of the later H20/H200/Blackwell toll-and-throttle logic.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "Экспортный контроль с самого начала был циклом: правило → урезанный compliant SKU → обновление правила. Эпизод A800/H800 — ранний прототип более поздней логики H20/H200/Blackwell.", "stack_layer": [ "energy_compute_chips" ], "strange_structure": [ "security" ], "geographic_scope": "us_china", "keywords": [ "A800", "H800", "workaround", "closure" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "A800/H800 workaround-to-closure cycle", "confidence": "B", "geography": [ "us_china" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node" ] }, { "id": "governance-01", "pass": "cognitive_security", "topic": "2023 governance shock", "claim": "2023 is the governance-shock year: NIST AI RMF, China genAI Interim Measures, G7 Hiroshima Code, U.S. EO 14110, Bletchley Declaration and EU AI Act provisional agreement all frame frontier/generative AI as a risk-management and governance object.", "status": "verified", "evidence_level": "A", "sources": [ { "title": "NIST AI RMF", "name": "NIST AI RMF", "url": "https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2023-01-26", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "CAC Interim Measures", "name": "CAC Interim Measures", "url": "https://www.cac.gov.cn/2023-07/13/c_1690898327029107.htm", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2023-07-13", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "Bletchley Declaration", "name": "Bletchley Declaration", "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-2023-the-bletchley-declaration/the-bletchley-declaration-by-countries-attending-the-ai-safety-summit-1-2-november-2023", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2023-11-01", "primary_or_secondary": "" }, { "title": "EU AI Act provisional agreement", "name": "EU AI Act provisional agreement", "url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/12/09/artificial-intelligence-act-council-and-parliament-strike-a-deal-on-the-first-worldwide-rules-for-ai/", "type": "Primary source", "date": "2023-12-09", "primary_or_secondary": "" } ], "date_relevant": "2023", "caveats": [ "Some instruments are voluntary or provisional; distinguish hard law from soft law." ], "corrections": [], "recommended_phrasing": "2023 is when frontier/generative AI became a formal governance object across regimes: U.S. voluntary RMF and EO, Chinese binding service rules, G7/UK frontier-safety diplomacy, and EU risk-based market regulation.", "recommended_phrasing_ru": "2023 — год, когда frontier/generative AI стал формальным объектом governance: добровольный RMF и EO в США, обязательные сервисные правила в Китае, G7/UK diplomacy по frontier safety и EU risk-based market regulation.", "stack_layer": [ "governance_law" ], "strange_structure": [ "knowledge" ], "geographic_scope": "global", "keywords": [ "governance shock", "NIST", "CAC", "Bletchley", "EU AI Act" ], "kind": "claim", "title": "2023 governance shock", "confidence": "A", "geography": [ "Global" ], "arcIds": [ "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_2022_2023_008", "EDGE_2022_2023_009", "EDGE_2022_2023_010" ] } ], "claimChecks": [ { "id": "CLM_001_INFRA_RACE", "claim": "AI competition is now an infrastructure and capital race, not only a model/software race.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI", "SIG_CHINA_2025_ALIBABA_380B_AI_CLOUD", "SIG_INDIA_2026_AMAZON_13B_CLOUD_AI", "SIG_JAPAN_2026_BLACKSTONE_30B_AI_DC" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Гонка frontier-AI всё больше проходит через чипы, энергетику, дата-центры, cloud capacity и долгий capex, а не только через релизы моделей.", "what_could_break_it": "If capex plans are cancelled or capacity is not deployed, use as 'announced buildout' rather than realized infrastructure.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "AI competition is now an infrastructure and capital race, not only a model/software race.", "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_005" ] }, { "id": "CLM_002_TIERING", "claim": "AI-stack access is becoming a world system of tiers.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE", "SIG_US_2026_AI_DIFFUSION_REPLACEMENT_WITHDRAWN", "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Политика США уже двигалась к явному тирингу доступа к AI-чипам и compute, но конкретная архитектура режима нестабильна и требует датированной формулировки.", "what_could_break_it": "A broad successor rule that abandons tiering, or large-scale leakage through third countries.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "AI-stack access is becoming a world system of tiers.", "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_006", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_007", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_008" ] }, { "id": "CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE", "claim": "Gulf sovereign AI is better described as conditional access than full-stack sovereignty.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE", "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Акторы Залива покупают доступ к frontier compute и deployment capacity, часто в связке с внешними assurance/alignment условиями; это ближе к управляемому доступу, чем к full-stack sovereignty.", "what_could_break_it": "Proof of independently controlled chips, domestic foundation-model training stack, cloud, security and governance without external assurance.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Gulf sovereign AI is better described as conditional access than full-stack sovereignty.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "parallel" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_GULF_001", "EDGE_OPEN_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_009", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_010", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_011" ] }, { "id": "CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE", "claim": "Export controls convert private AI chip sales into geopolitical leverage.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_NVIDIA_2025_H20_CHARGE", "SIG_US_2024_BIS_HBM_ENTITY_LIST", "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Государственный экспортный контроль уже материально меняет частные продажи AI-чипов, выручку и deployment-решения, превращая коммерческую инфраструктуру в геополитический рычаг.", "what_could_break_it": "If licensing is broadly waived or enforcement collapses.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Export controls convert private AI chip sales into geopolitical leverage.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports", "refines" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CORE_001", "EDGE_TOLL_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_012", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_013", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_014" ] }, { "id": "CLM_005_EU_SEMI_PERIPHERY", "claim": "Europe is sovereign in regulation and public compute ambitions, but constrained in cloud/frontier capacity.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_EU_2025_INVESTAI_GIGAFACTORIES", "SIG_EU_2026_AWS_AZURE_DMA_GATEKEEPERS", "SIG_EU_2026_PAX_SILICA" ], "safe_wording_ru": "ЕС усиливает публичный compute и industrial policy, но зависимость от hyperscaler cloud и внешних frontier-инфраструктур остаётся одним из главных ограничений.", "what_could_break_it": "Operating EU gigafactories and EU-controlled cloud capacity at frontier scale.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Europe is sovereign in regulation and public compute ambitions, but constrained in cloud/frontier capacity.", "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_015", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_016", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_017" ] }, { "id": "CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER", "claim": "Machine-speed vulnerability discovery/fix is advancing; autonomous offense at strategic scale is not yet established.", "status": "needs_correction", "confidence": "B/C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_CYBER_2025_AIXCC_FINAL", "SIG_CYBER_2026_OSS_CRS" ], "safe_wording_ru": "AIxCC и OSS-CRS показывают реальный прогресс в автоматизированном finding-and-fixing; публично надёжное доказательство autonomous offensive exploit-at-scale пока спорно.", "what_could_break_it": "Independently verified incidents of AI-orchestrated exploit chains at scale.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Machine-speed vulnerability discovery/fix is advancing; autonomous offense at strategic scale is not yet established.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports_with_scope", "challenges_overclaim", "supports", "limits" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_001", "EDGE_CYBER_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_018", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_019", "EDGE_CA_002" ] }, { "id": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "claim": "AI-mediated decision support creates a new hidden influence surface.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_COG_2026_INDIRECT_PROMPT_INJECTION_WILD", "SIG_COG_2026_RESUME_PROMPT_INJECTION", "SIG_COG_2026_AGENT_IPI_COMPETITION", "SIG_AGENTS_2026_AGENT_INDEX" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Prompt/RAG/agent injection уже наблюдается в реальных входах и workflow; это делает AI-mediated decision support правдоподобным каналом скрытого влияния, хотя государственное применение такого канала пока требует отдельных кейсов.", "what_could_break_it": "Robust agent architectures that reliably separate data from instructions, plus lack of production incidents.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "AI-mediated decision support creates a new hidden influence surface.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports_mechanism", "supports", "limits" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_001", "EDGE_COG_002", "EDGE_COG_004", "EDGE_COG_005", "EDGE_COG_007", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_020", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_021", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_022", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_023" ] }, { "id": "CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL", "claim": "In 2026, frontier cyber-capable models themselves became export-control objects.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_US_MODEL_EXPORT_CONTROL_ANTHROPIC_JUNE12", "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LIMITED_RESTORE_TRUSTED_US_ORGS", "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_STAGED_RELEASE" ], "safe_wording_ru": "В июне 2026 экспортно-контрольная логика перешла с чипов и дата-центров на уровень самих frontier/cyber-моделей: Anthropic временно отключила Mythos/Fable после сообщения о правительственном order, а OpenAI ограничила GPT-5.6-preview по запросу правительства. До публикации первичных order/license документов это надо формулировать как reported/confirmed-by-company access control, а не как полностью реконструированное право.", "what_could_break_it": "Publication of narrow voluntary-review terms showing no binding export-control effect, or full restoration without continuing restrictions.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "In 2026, frontier cyber-capable models themselves became export-control objects.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports", "refines" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CORE_002", "EDGE_EXPORT_007", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_024", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_025", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_026" ] }, { "id": "CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY", "claim": "Mythos proves machine-speed 0-day discovery has arrived.", "status": "needs_correction", "confidence": "B/C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271", "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_CLASSIFIED_SYSTEMS_TEST", "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LINKED_REDISCOVERY_COUNTEREVIDENCE" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Mythos-related reporting and Mozilla-style defender evidence strongly suggest a step-change in AI-assisted vulnerability discovery; however, independent rediscovery tests and classified-test caveats mean we should not state that autonomous machine-speed 0-day exploitation is established.", "what_could_break_it": "Open benchmark with repeated autonomous discovery, validation and patch/exploit-chain reproduction across diverse real targets.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Mythos proves machine-speed 0-day discovery has arrived.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports_but_limits", "walks_back", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CYBER_004", "EDGE_CYBER_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_027", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_028", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_029" ] }, { "id": "CLM_010_360_COUNTER_STACK", "claim": "360 has built a Chinese Mythos equivalent.", "status": "disputed", "confidence": "D_for_capability_B_for_announcement", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL", "SIG_2026_360_ZHOU_HABR_STRATEGIC_SPEECH" ], "safe_wording_ru": "360 заявляет о китайской версии Mythos — Tulongfeng — и об автоматизированной защитной системе Yitianzhen; Reuters подтверждает сам факт заявления и числа как утверждения компании, но прямо отмечает, что не смогла независимо проверить capability claims.", "what_could_break_it": "Independent benchmark showing much lower results, inability to verify the 105 regulator-confirmed vulnerabilities, or evidence that findings are low-severity/noise.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "360 has built a Chinese Mythos equivalent.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "challenges", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_CN_006", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_030", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_031" ] }, { "id": "CLM_011_AGENT_HARNESS_ROUTE_AROUND", "claim": "China can route around weaker base models through agent harness and security data.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "D/C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL", "SIG_2026_360_ZHOU_HABR_STRATEGIC_SPEECH" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Zhou/360 формулируют китайский ответ не как прямую гонку за самой сильной базовой моделью, а как agent-harness путь: модель + security data + инструменты + память + многоагентная координация. Это важный стратегический нарратив и plausible engineering hypothesis, но пока не доказанный parity-result.", "what_could_break_it": "Independent tasks showing harness fails without frontier base models/chips.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "China can route around weaker base models through agent harness and security data.", "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_032", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_033" ] }, { "id": "CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE", "claim": "AI is already used in critical state and business decision-support domains.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD", "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "SIG_2026_JPMORGAN_AI_INVESTMENT_BANKING_AND_MYTHOS" ], "safe_wording_ru": "ИИ уже встроен в критические workflow: военное C2/mission planning/targeting-support, банковские lending/KYC/sanctions-screening контуры, инвестиционно-банковскую подготовку материалов и киберзащиту legacy-инфраструктуры. Но по военным кейсам нужно говорить 'decision support / targeting support', а не 'автономное убийство'.", "what_could_break_it": "Primary documents showing deployments are pilots with no operational impact; lack of active users or production integration.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "AI is already used in critical state and business decision-support domains.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_COG_006", "EDGE_FIN_001", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_034", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_035", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_036", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_037" ] }, { "id": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "claim": "Control over AI capabilities often appears as quiet access control rather than public bans.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A/B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES", "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS", "SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_MYTHOS_TRUSTED_ORGS" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Помимо публичных банов и экспортных правил, контроль реализуется тихо: review/approval для national-security uses, human-review requirements для high-stakes automation, tiered access, enhanced due diligence, vetted exemptions для dual-use science, trusted organizations и monitoring classifiers.", "what_could_break_it": "If providers publish evidence that these controls are rarely used or merely symbolic.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Control over AI capabilities often appears as quiet access control rather than public bans.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_QAC_001", "EDGE_QAC_004", "EDGE_QAC_005", "EDGE_QAC_006", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_038", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_039", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_040", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_041", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_042" ] }, { "id": "CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING", "claim": "Biotech/CBRN capabilities are already governed by special model-level access controls.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES" ], "safe_wording_ru": "По CBRN/biotech виден особый режим: провайдеры строят real-time/async фильтры и мониторинг, а легитимным dual-use пользователям могут давать vetted exemptions вместо полного отказа. Это и есть слой 'governance by access'.", "what_could_break_it": "Evidence that bio-related restrictions are generic refusals only and do not affect access decisions or exemptions.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Biotech/CBRN capabilities are already governed by special model-level access controls.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_QAC_002", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_043", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_044", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_045" ] }, { "id": "CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL", "claim": "Once private AI models enter military workflows, suppliers can influence operational boundary conditions.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "B/C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "SIG_2026_PENTAGON_SEVEN_AI_COMPANIES_CLASSIFIED_NETWORKS", "SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD", "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Встраивание коммерческих моделей в военные workflow создаёт новую проблему decision sovereignty: государство хочет 'any lawful use', провайдеры хотят guardrails, а итоговая граница применения задаётся контрактами, review procedures и техническими фильтрами.", "what_could_break_it": "Clear architecture where state-owned orchestration fully isolates final action policy from supplier models and provider vetoes.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Once private AI models enter military workflows, suppliers can influence operational boundary conditions.", "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_046", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_047", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_048", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_049" ] }, { "id": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "claim": "Palantir is best understood as an operating system for institutional decision power, not just a software vendor.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_IMMIGRATIONOS" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Palantir лучше читать как слой операционной власти: он собирает данные, строит operational ontology, подмешивает AI/LLM, задаёт интерфейс решений, права доступа, audit trail и workflow для военных, полиции, здравоохранения, миграционного контроля и бизнеса.", "what_could_break_it": "If primary documents show limited dashboard-only deployments with no decision workflow or operational dependency.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Palantir is best understood as an operating system for institutional decision power, not just a software vendor.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "generalizes" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_002", "EDGE_PAL_007", "EDGE_PAL_008", "EDGE_PAL_009", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_050", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_051", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_052", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_053", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_054" ] }, { "id": "CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN", "claim": "Palantir creates land-and-expand / vendor-lock-in dynamics inside public-sector decision infrastructure.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_ENTERPRISE", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MET_POLICE_AI" ], "safe_wording_ru": "В нескольких кейсах Palantir входит через ограниченный/пилотный или срочный контракт, а затем расширяет scope и стоимость; но для строгого утверждения о lock-in нужно показывать procurement records и switching-cost rationale по каждому кейсу.", "what_could_break_it": "Competitive re-procurement with low switching costs and comparable alternatives.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Palantir creates land-and-expand / vendor-lock-in dynamics inside public-sector decision infrastructure.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports_with_caveat", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_055", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_056", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_057", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_058" ] }, { "id": "CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY", "claim": "Palantir is becoming a U.S.-anchored alliance decision platform.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Maven/MSS и связанные контракты делают Palantir одним из главных U.S.-anchored software layers для AI-enabled warfighting и allied C2/interoperability. Это усиливает тезис о platform-affiliate sovereignty внутри НАТО.", "what_could_break_it": "If European/NATO domestic alternatives replace Palantir without operational loss.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Palantir is becoming a U.S.-anchored alliance decision platform.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_059", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_060", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_061" ] }, { "id": "CLM_019_PALANTIR_DATA_SOVEREIGNTY_COUNTERARGUMENT", "claim": "Palantir controls the data of its public-sector clients.", "status": "needs_correction", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Не надо писать, что Palantir 'владеет' или 'контролирует' NHS/state data. Безопаснее: Palantir supplies the operational software layer through which public institutions integrate, query and act on sensitive data; formal ownership/control may remain with the state, while dependency and access-control risks remain contested.", "what_could_break_it": "Primary contracts showing no external access, strong state-side key/control, open portability and independent audit.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Palantir controls the data of its public-sector clients.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "walks_back", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_PAL_006", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_062" ] }, { "id": "CLM_020_SCALE_PRIMARY_NUMBERS", "claim": "The AI capital race is extreme but unequal, and private figures understate China.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_STANFORD_AGGREGATE_INVESTMENT", "SIG_2026_STANFORD_GUIDANCE_FUND_CLARIFY", "SIG_2026_STANFORD_MODELS_COMPUTE_TALENT" ], "safe_wording_ru": "По Stanford AI Index 2026: глобальные частные инвестиции $344.7 млрд (+127.5%), корпоративные $581.7 млрд (+130%); США $285.9 млрд против $12.4 млрд у Китая (23.1x). Частные цифры занижают Китай: guidance-фонды дали ~$184 млрд в AI (2000-2023); цифра $912 млрд — это все отрасли, не AI.", "what_could_break_it": "Revised AI Index methodology or a recount that narrows the gap; do not cite $912B as AI-specific.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "The AI capital race is extreme but unequal, and private figures understate China.", "arcIds": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_063", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_064", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_065" ] }, { "id": "CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME", "claim": "The chip export regime is a graduated toll-and-throttle system, not a simple ban.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "A", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "SIG_2026_NVIDIA_H200_LICENSE_SMALL", "SIG_2026_BLACKWELL_DENIAL_HUAWEI_ASCEND" ], "safe_wording_ru": "К 2026 чиповый режим — дозированный 'вентиль с пошлиной': H200/MI325X на case-by-case (25% пошлина, 50% потолок, KYC, инспекция США), Blackwell под denial, H20 снова идёт по схеме с 15%; Пекин дросселирует со своей стороны, Huawei целится в 600 тыс. Ascend 910C. Формулируйте как метеринг доступа по поколению/цене/слежке, а не как эмбарго.", "what_could_break_it": "A broad successor rule that abandons case-by-case metering, or Beijing fully opening to imports.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "The chip export regime is a graduated toll-and-throttle system, not a simple ban.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "refines", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_TOLL_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_066", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_067", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_068" ] }, { "id": "CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE", "claim": "Export controls are leaky but still structural.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE", "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Контроль не герметичен: есть smuggling/transshipment через третьи страны. Но именно поэтому третьи страны превращаются в узлы контроля, а стек — в объект таможни, лицензирования, KYC и инспекций. Правильная формула: leverage does not need to be airtight to be structural.", "what_could_break_it": "Evidence that route-around volume dwarfs licensed/controlled supply and enforcement has no material effect on cost, delay or risk.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Export controls are leaky but still structural.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "mitigates" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_LEAK_002", "EDGE_LEAK_004", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_069", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_070", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_071" ] }, { "id": "CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY", "claim": "Energy/grid capacity is a hard AI-stack layer, but flexibility can partially mitigate it.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_POWER_STRESS_REVIEW", "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_CONCENTRATED_SITING_POWER_STRESS", "SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS", "SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Энергия — нижний слой AI-стека: рост load создаёт региональные bottlenecks и политическую сопротивляемость. Но дата-центры не обязательно являются полностью негибкими нагрузками: workload orchestration и load shifting могут снижать часть grid stress. Это не отменяет энергетическую власть, а делает её управляемой и локально разной.", "what_could_break_it": "Large-scale proof that flexible compute eliminates interconnection delays and capacity expansion needs across major regions.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Energy/grid capacity is a hard AI-stack layer, but flexibility can partially mitigate it.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_ENERGY_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_072", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_073", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_074", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_075" ] }, { "id": "CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "claim": "War creates a data flywheel for military AI.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "B/C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DRONE_FOOTAGE_AI_TRAINING", "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DOMESTIC_AI_COMPUTE_MILITARY_DEMAND" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Украина показывает data-telemetry слой войны: военное применение создаёт массивы видео/сенсорных данных, которые затем обучают модели для распознавания, навигации и автономных систем. Пока это лучше формулировать как data flywheel, а не как доказательство fully autonomous targeting.", "what_could_break_it": "Evidence that drone-footage datasets are not used operationally or do not improve models beyond synthetic baselines.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "War creates a data flywheel for military AI.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "limits" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_WAR_003", "EDGE_WAR_006", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_076", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_077" ] }, { "id": "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "claim": "Finance is moving from AI adoption to AI operational-governance controls.", "status": "verified", "confidence": "B", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_RBI_AI_KILL_SWITCH_FINANCE", "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "SIG_2026_UK_FINANCE_AI_STRESS_TESTS" ], "safe_wording_ru": "В финансах AI уже не просто productivity tool: регуляторы требуют model inventory, independent validation, board accountability, human oversight, corrective actions и возможность отключения/decommissioning. Это сильный бизнес-критический слой decision-support governance.", "what_could_break_it": "Final rules remove decommissioning/kill-switch logic, or banks show these models are only low-risk pilots.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Finance is moving from AI adoption to AI operational-governance controls.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT" ], "relationTypes": [ "key_node", "supports", "limits" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_FIN_002", "EDGE_FIN_004", "EDGE_FIN_005", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_078", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_079", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_080" ] }, { "id": "CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION", "claim": "Private model suppliers can affect military decision boundaries, but architecture can reduce dependency.", "status": "partially_verified", "confidence": "C", "supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_2026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MILITARY_AI_FRAMEWORK", "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Самый точный риск — не 'частная модель командует армией', а erosion of decision sovereignty: поставщик может влиять на версии, фильтры, границы использования и доступность. Но это не фатально: model replaceability, state-owned routing/logging/escalation/action authorization могут снижать зависимость.", "what_could_break_it": "Procurement architectures showing full state-owned orchestration and easy model replacement across major military AI systems.", "kind": "claimCheck", "title": "Private model suppliers can affect military decision boundaries, but architecture can reduce dependency.", "arcIds": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS" ], "relationTypes": [ "supports" ], "edgeIds": [ "EDGE_DS_002", "EDGE_DS_003", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_081", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_082", "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_083", "EDGE_CA_005" ] } ], "arcs": [ { "id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "title_ru": "От чипов к моделям: экспортный контроль поднимается вверх по стеку", "arc_type": "escalation_with_walkbacks", "status": "strong_but_legally_contested", "start_date": "2022-10-07", "end_date": "2026-06-26", "visual_lanes": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips", "model_weights" ], "thesis_ru": "Контроль начинается с чипов и оборудования, затем распространяется на HBM, страновые тиры, ownership/headquarters, revenue-share и наконец на доступ к frontier-моделям.", "safe_wording_ru": "Говорить не 'США полностью запретили AI Китаю', а 'США всё более дозируют доступ к слоям стека — чипы, дата-центры, parentage, модели — через лицензии, пошлины, KYC и trusted access'.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_US_2022_BIS_ADVANCED_COMPUTING", "SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE", "SIG_US_2026_AI_DIFFUSION_REPLACEMENT_WITHDRAWN", "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "SIG_2026_BIS_ANTHROPIC_ISINFORMED_LETTER", "export-16" ], "counterpoints": [ "AI Diffusion Rule rescinded; successor withdrawn.", "Model-control legal basis contested.", "Controls leak through transshipment and cloud routes." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "От чипов к моделям: экспортный контроль поднимается вверх по стеку" }, { "id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "title_ru": "Не эмбарго, а вентиль с пошлиной", "arc_type": "policy_walkback_and_refinement", "status": "strong", "start_date": "2025-04-15", "end_date": "2026-02-26", "visual_lanes": [ "energy_compute_chips", "finance_rent", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "Режим чипов превращается из 'стены' в метринг доступа по поколению, цене, объёму, KYC и инспекциям.", "safe_wording_ru": "Формулировать как toll-and-throttle: H20 charge/15%, H200/MI325X case-by-case, Blackwell denial, Huawei domestic target.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_NVIDIA_2025_H20_CHARGE", "export-04", "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "SIG_2026_NVIDIA_H200_LICENSE_SMALL", "SIG_2026_BLACKWELL_DENIAL_HUAWEI_ASCEND", "export-15" ], "counterpoints": [ "Пекин может сам дросселировать импорт.", "Huawei/Ascend меняют базовую зависимость." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Не эмбарго, а вентиль с пошлиной" }, { "id": "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "title_ru": "Контроль протекает, но полицирует", "arc_type": "claim_correction", "status": "reviewer_proofing", "start_date": "2026-05-31", "end_date": "2026-06-26", "visual_lanes": [ "governance_law", "energy_compute_chips" ], "thesis_ru": "Утечки не опровергают структурную власть: они превращают транзитные страны в узлы enforcement, риска и наблюдения.", "safe_wording_ru": "Leverage does not need to be airtight to be structural.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE", "CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE", "ca-08" ], "counterpoints": [ "Один seizure не даёт объём leakage.", "Нужен масштаб route-around через Malaysia/Singapore/UAE." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Контроль протекает, но полицирует" }, { "id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "title_ru": "Залив: sovereign AI как условный доступ", "arc_type": "sovereignty_reframe", "status": "strong", "start_date": "2024-06-24", "end_date": "2026-02-18", "visual_lanes": [ "cloud_inference", "model_weights", "finance_rent", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "Gulf actors покупают frontier compute/model deployment, но доступ идёт через US-linked chips/cloud/model stack и assurance conditions.", "safe_wording_ru": "Не 'полный суверенный ИИ Залива', а 'conditional access / sovereign buyer / protectorate AI'.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE", "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI", "CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE" ], "counterpoints": [ "Условный доступ всё равно может накапливать реальную операционную capacity.", "Capital/energy/land remain real Gulf levers." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Залив: sovereign AI как условный доступ" }, { "id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "title_ru": "Китайский counter-stack: route-around, не parity", "arc_type": "countermove_and_caveat", "status": "mixed", "start_date": "2023-07-01", "end_date": "2026-06-24", "visual_lanes": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "model_weights", "cyber_security_patch" ], "thesis_ru": "Контроль США стимулирует китайский parallel stack: Alibaba capex, DeepSeek/open weights, Ascend, rare earth counter-controls, 360 cyber-claims.", "safe_wording_ru": "Китай строит counter-core, но не frictionless frontier sovereignty: узкие места — HBM, lithography, SMIC yields, energy and verification of vendor claims.", "key_nodes": [ "export-05", "export-06", "SIG_CHINA_2025_ALIBABA_380B_AI_CLOUD", "tier-cn-01", "openweight-01", "openweight-02", "openweight-03", "SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL", "cyber-06" ], "counterpoints": [ "360 capability claim disputed.", "DeepSeek/Ascend training share not fully confirmed.", "Open weights do not transfer chips/cloud/learning curves." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Китайский counter-stack: route-around, не parity" }, { "id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "title_ru": "Machine-speed cyber: от сильного заявления к честной оговорке", "arc_type": "statement_walkback", "status": "contested", "start_date": "2025-08-08", "end_date": "2026-06-24", "visual_lanes": [ "cyber_security_patch", "model_weights", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "AI-assisted vulnerability discovery is real, but reliable autonomous offense at scale is not established; the stronger structural claim is access asymmetry.", "safe_wording_ru": "Говорить 'automated find-and-fix is advancing; autonomous offense remains contested'.", "key_nodes": [ "cyber-01", "cyber-02", "cyber-03", "cyber-04", "cyber-05", "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271", "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LINKED_REDISCOVERY_COUNTEREVIDENCE", "cyber-07", "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "SIG_2024_OPENAI_STATE_THREAT_ACTORS_DISRUPTION", "SIG_2024_GOOGLE_PROJECT_NAPTIME", "SIG_2024_GOOGLE_BIG_SLEEP_SQLITE", "SIG_2024_AIXCC_SEMIFINAL", "SIG_2025_CLAUDE_ORCHESTRATED_ESPIONAGE", "SIG_2026_LLM_CVE_PUBLIC_POC_MIGRATION", "SIG_2026_WINDOWS_DEFENDER_WEAPONIZATION_CLUSTER" ], "counterpoints": [ "AIxCC/Big Sleep prove defense floor.", "GTG-1002 and 360 remain vendor claims without independent IoCs/benchmarks.", "Mythos leverage is access asymmetry." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Machine-speed cyber: от сильного заявления к честной оговорке" }, { "id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "title_ru": "Тихий контроль: policy-gating, vetted users, ASL-3", "arc_type": "governance_by_access", "status": "strong", "start_date": "2024-10-15", "end_date": "2026-06-26", "visual_lanes": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition", "cyber_security_patch" ], "thesis_ru": "Чувствительные AI capabilities контролируются не только публичными банами, но и provider policy, due diligence, monitoring, vetted exemptions and trusted organizations.", "safe_wording_ru": "Governance by access: review/approval, human-review requirements, ASL-3, vetted dual-use exemptions, trusted orgs.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES", "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS", "SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_MYTHOS_TRUSTED_ORGS", "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING", "SIG_2024_GPT4O_RELEASE_AND_FREE_ACCESS", "SIG_2024_CLAUDE_35_SONNET", "SIG_2025_OPENAI_O3_O4_MINI" ], "counterpoints": [ "Private governance is opaque and not public law.", "Need concrete examples of exemption outcomes." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Тихий контроль: policy-gating, vetted users, ASL-3" }, { "id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "title_ru": "Palantir как decision OS", "arc_type": "institutional_expansion", "status": "strong_with_contract_caveats", "start_date": "2024-03-06", "end_date": "2026-06-24", "visual_lanes": [ "decision_support_cognition", "data_telemetry", "governance_law", "finance_rent" ], "thesis_ru": "Palantir показывает knowledge-structure capture: он задаёт слой, через который институт видит данные, строит common operating picture и действует.", "safe_wording_ru": "Не 'Palantir владеет данными', а 'Palantir supplies the operational software layer through which institutions integrate, query and act on sensitive data'.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2024_PALANTIR_TITAN_ARMY", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_PRIMARY", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_IMMIGRATIONOS", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MET_POLICE_AI", "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "CLM_019_PALANTIR_DATA_SOVEREIGNTY_COUNTERARGUMENT" ], "counterpoints": [ "$10B Army EA is ceiling, $0 obligated at award.", "Legal data ownership/control may stay with the state.", "Performance claims need independent audits." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Palantir как decision OS" }, { "id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "title_ru": "Cognitive security: лаборатория → wild → государственный decision-support", "arc_type": "mechanism_to_deployment", "status": "strong_mechanism_missing_incident", "start_date": "2025-10-09", "end_date": "2026-05-27", "visual_lanes": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "Prompt/data/model poisoning creates a machine-facing influence channel; evidence moved from mechanism to measured in-the-wild prevalence, while confirmed state incident remains gap.", "safe_wording_ru": "Не 'госрешения уже отравлены', а 'поверхность атаки уже измерима; production/government incident remains missing'.", "key_nodes": [ "cogsec-01", "cogsec-02", "cogsec-05", "cogsec-06", "cogsec-07", "cogsec-08", "cogsec-03", "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "GAP_005_PUBLIC_SECTOR_DECISION_SUPPORT", "SIG_2024_MICROSOFT_WORK_TREND_AI_USAGE", "SIG_2025_MCKINSEY_STATE_OF_AI_ADOPTION" ], "counterpoints": [ "Novelty partly continuous with older supply-chain and influence operations.", "Production incident still needed." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Cognitive security: лаборатория → wild → государственный decision-support" }, { "id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "title_ru": "Энергия и политика дата-центров", "arc_type": "constraint_with_mitigation", "status": "nuanced", "start_date": "2026-03-13", "end_date": "2026-06-23", "visual_lanes": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "Energy/grid is a bottom-stack layer; constraints are local, political and partly software-manageable.", "safe_wording_ru": "Energy is a structural layer, but not an absolute wall.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_CONCENTRATED_SITING_POWER_STRESS", "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_POWER_STRESS_REVIEW", "SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS", "SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION", "SIG_2026_DATA_CENTER_BACKLASH_US_POLL", "scale-10", "scale-11", "CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY", "ca-09" ], "counterpoints": [ "Flexibility can cut some grid costs.", "Public backlash may be broader AI anxiety, not only local DC impact." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Энергия и политика дата-центров" }, { "id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "title_ru": "Война как data flywheel", "arc_type": "data_feedback_loop", "status": "partially_verified", "start_date": "2026-06-23", "end_date": "2026-06-26", "visual_lanes": [ "data_telemetry", "decision_support_cognition", "energy_compute_chips" ], "thesis_ru": "Battlefield AI use generates training data, which creates model improvement and sovereign compute demand.", "safe_wording_ru": "Формулировать как telemetry/learning-curve advantage, не как proof of fully autonomous targeting.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DOMESTIC_AI_COMPUTE_MILITARY_DEMAND", "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DRONE_FOOTAGE_AI_TRAINING", "SIG_2026_SOUTH_KOREA_DRONE_WARRIORS_AI_SWARMS", "SIG_2026_PUBLIC_SUPPORT_MILITARY_AI_NINE_COUNTRIES", "cogsec-10", "cogsec-11", "CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "GAP_022_UKRAINE_AUTONOMOUS_TARGETING_PRIMARY" ], "counterpoints": [ "Need primary evidence for autonomous targeting pipelines.", "Public legitimacy sharply drops for fully autonomous lethal force." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Война как data flywheel" }, { "id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "title_ru": "Финансы: от adoption к kill-switch governance", "arc_type": "critical_business_governance", "status": "strong", "start_date": "2026-01-20", "end_date": "2026-06-24", "visual_lanes": [ "finance_rent", "decision_support_cognition", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "AI in finance has moved from productivity/adoption to model-risk controls: inventory, validation, board accountability and decommissioning.", "safe_wording_ru": "В финансах AI — критический decision-support слой, который уже требует управляемого shutdown.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2026_UK_FINANCE_AI_STRESS_TESTS", "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "SIG_2026_RBI_AI_KILL_SWITCH_FINANCE", "SIG_2026_JPMORGAN_AI_INVESTMENT_BANKING_AND_MYTHOS", "cogsec-12", "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "SIG_2023_MORGAN_STANLEY_GPT4_ASSISTANT", "SIG_2024_JPMORGAN_LLM_SUITE_ENTERPRISE", "SIG_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND", "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E" ], "counterpoints": [ "RBI rule still draft.", "Need evidence of actual bank kill-switch implementation." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Финансы: от adoption к kill-switch governance" }, { "id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "title_ru": "Open weights: exit или смена зависимости", "arc_type": "thesis_stress_test", "status": "mixed", "start_date": "2025-01-01", "end_date": "2026-04-24", "visual_lanes": [ "model_weights", "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference" ], "thesis_ru": "Open weights create an exit at the model-artifact layer, but do not transfer chips, HBM, clouds, tacit iteration or operational tempo.", "safe_wording_ru": "Open weights ≠ sovereignty; они меняют слой модели, но не весь стек.", "key_nodes": [ "openweight-01", "openweight-02", "openweight-03", "openweight-04", "tier-cn-02", "tier-india-01", "tier-india-02", "ca-06", "SIG_2024_LLAMA31_405B_OPENLY_AVAILABLE", "SIG_2025_DEEPSEEK_R1_OPEN_SOURCE_RELEASE", "SIG_2025_LLAMA4_SCOUT_MAVERICK", "SIG_2024_GROK1_OPEN_WEIGHTS" ], "counterpoints": [ "DeepSeek/Ascend serving support matters.", "Training-vs-inference independence remains unclear." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Open weights: exit или смена зависимости" }, { "id": "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE", "title_ru": "Фаза сборки режима: 2022–2023", "arc_type": "formation_phase", "status": "strong", "start_date": "2022-08-09", "end_date": "2023-12-09", "visual_lanes": [ "energy_compute_chips", "cloud_inference", "model_weights", "governance_law", "finance_rent", "cyber_security_patch" ], "thesis_ru": "2022–2023 создают основу последующего режима: промышленная политика, первый экспортный контроль, публичный deployment shock, cloud/model lock-in, добровольные и обязательные правила, China counter-controls и closure of chip workarounds.", "key_nodes": [ "TL_2022_CHIPS_ACT", "TL_2022_NVIDIA_A800", "TL_2022_CHATGPT", "TL_2023_MICROSOFT_OPENAI", "TL_2023_NIST_AI_RMF", "TL_2023_GPT4", "TL_2023_CHINA_GALLIUM_GERMANIUM", "TL_2023_CHINA_GENAI_MEASURES", "TL_2023_US_OUTBOUND_INVESTMENT_EO", "TL_2023_AIXCC_LAUNCH", "TL_2023_BIS_OCT_UPDATE", "TL_2023_G7_HIROSHIMA_CODE", "TL_2023_US_AI_EO_14110", "TL_2023_BLETCHLEY_DECLARATION", "TL_2023_EU_AI_ACT_DEAL" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Это formation phase, а не пустота: основные hard-power события 2025–2026 были подготовлены именно 2022–2023.", "kind": "arc", "title": "Фаза сборки режима: 2022–2023", "counterpoints": [] }, { "id": "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE", "title_ru": "A800/H800: ранний цикл workaround → closure", "arc_type": "statement_walkback", "status": "strong_with_primary_gap", "start_date": "2022-10-07", "end_date": "2023-10-17", "visual_lanes": [ "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "После Oct-2022 BIS controls Nvidia создала compliant China SKUs; Oct-2023 update закрыл часть этих loopholes.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_US_2022_BIS_ADVANCED_COMPUTING", "SIG_2022_NVIDIA_A800_WORKAROUND", "SIG_2023_BIS_OCT_UPDATE_CLOSES_A800_H800", "export-19" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Ранний прототип поздней логики toll-and-throttle: control → workaround → updated control.", "kind": "arc", "title": "A800/H800: ранний цикл workaround → closure", "counterpoints": [] }, { "id": "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK", "title_ru": "2023: governance shock", "arc_type": "governance_escalation", "status": "strong", "start_date": "2023-01-26", "end_date": "2023-12-09", "visual_lanes": [ "governance_law", "model_weights", "decision_support_cognition" ], "thesis_ru": "В 2023 frontier/generative AI становится объектом формального governance: NIST, CAC, G7, EO 14110, Bletchley, EU AI Act.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2023_NIST_AI_RMF_1_0", "SIG_2023_CHINA_GENAI_INTERIM_MEASURES", "SIG_2023_G7_HIROSHIMA_CODE", "SIG_2023_US_AI_EO_14110", "SIG_2023_BLETCHLEY_DECLARATION", "SIG_2023_EU_AI_ACT_PROVISIONAL_AGREEMENT", "governance-01" ], "safe_wording_ru": "Разделять binding law, soft law, voluntary frameworks and provisional agreements.", "kind": "arc", "title": "2023: governance shock", "counterpoints": [] }, { "id": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "title_ru": "Данные как лицензируемый входной слой", "arc_type": "input_layer_commercialization", "status": "strong_with_scope_caveats", "start_date": "2023-07-13", "end_date": "2024-05-22", "visual_lanes": [ "data_telemetry", "model_weights", "finance_rent" ], "thesis_ru": "Данные для обучения, RAG и продукта всё чаще становятся не бесхозным web-субстратом, а лицензируемым входом через API, архивы и контентные сделки.", "safe_wording_ru": "Говорить не “модели просто берут весь интернет”, а “часть высокоценного знания переводится в лицензируемые каналы доступа и становится отдельным слоем власти/ренты”.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2023_AP_OPENAI_ARCHIVE_LICENSE", "SIG_2024_REDDIT_GOOGLE_DATA_API", "SIG_2024_OPENAI_STACK_OVERFLOW_API", "SIG_2024_NEWS_CORP_OPENAI_PARTNERSHIP" ], "counterpoints": [ "Большая часть training-data supply chain остаётся непрозрачной.", "Официальные релизы часто не раскрывают цену сделки.", "Лицензии на данные не доказывают улучшение модели сами по себе." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Данные как лицензируемый входной слой" }, { "id": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "title_ru": "Cloud capacity и vendor lock-in", "arc_type": "capacity_dependency", "status": "strong_but_not_single_vendor", "start_date": "2024-03-27", "end_date": "2024-06-11", "visual_lanes": [ "cloud_inference", "finance_rent", "energy_compute_chips", "model_weights" ], "thesis_ru": "Frontier AI масштабируется через связки капитала, облака, GPU-capacity и каналов дистрибуции; “доступ к модели” зависит от capacity и контрактной архитектуры.", "safe_wording_ru": "Говорить не “один облачный провайдер владеет ИИ”, а “cloud capacity и инвестиционные партнёрства задают условия масштабирования и доступа к frontier-моделям”.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2023_MICROSOFT_OPENAI_AZURE_LOCKIN", "SIG_2024_AMAZON_ANTHROPIC_4B_COMPLETION", "SIG_2024_OPENAI_ORACLE_OCI_CAPACITY", "SIG_2024_XAI_SERIES_B_6B", "SIG_2025_COREWEAVE_OPENAI_11_9B_CAPACITY", "SIG_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND", "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E" ], "counterpoints": [ "Multi-cloud capacity can reduce a simple lock-in narrative.", "Fundraising is weaker evidence than deployed compute.", "Some capacity announcements do not prove realized infrastructure." ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Cloud capacity и vendor lock-in" }, { "status": "strong_but_not_commensurate", "counterpoints": [ "Нельзя складывать annual private investment, cumulative guidance funds, pledges, AUM targets and contract ceilings.", "Gulf and China state-capital signals often have weaker spend transparency than US private investment data.", "The v0.13 ledger deliberately keeps user-provided and reported-only rows visible but weaker.", "Canada/India are useful all-others datapoints, not scale peers to US/China/Gulf." ], "id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "title_ru": "Капитал: не один рейтинг, а разные режимы денег", "arc_type": "capital_structure", "start_date": "2024-03-13", "end_date": "2026-06-09", "visual_lanes": [ "finance_rent", "cloud_inference", "energy_compute_chips", "governance_law" ], "thesis_ru": "Концентрация капитала видна только если отделять годовые потоки, частные инвестиции, капитальные затраты, накопительные госфонды, государственные планы, суверенные программы, цели мобилизации и обещанные объёмы.", "safe_wording_ru": "Говорить не “в мире потрачено $X трлн”, а “годовые потоки и многолетние анонсы показывают разные режимы денег; их нельзя складывать в один итог”.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2026_STANFORD_AGGREGATE_INVESTMENT", "SIG_2026_STANFORD_GUIDANCE_FUND_CLARIFY", "SIG_2025_EU_INVESTAI_200B_MOBILIZATION", "SIG_2024_UAE_MGX_100B_AI_STATE_VEHICLE", "SIG_2024_SAUDI_40B_AI_FUND_REPORTED", "SIG_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND", "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E", "SIG_2025_COREWEAVE_OPENAI_11_9B_CAPACITY", "SIG_2025_STARGATE_US_500B_PLEDGE", "SIG_2025_CHINA_NATIONAL_VC_GUIDANCE_FUND_138B", "SIG_2026_CHINA_AI_DC_295B_PLAN_REPORTED", "SIG_2025_FRANCE_AI_109B_MOBILIZATION", "SIG_2024_CANADA_2_4B_AI_COMMITMENT", "SIG_2024_INDIAAI_MISSION_1_25B" ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Капитал: не один рейтинг, а разные режимы денег" }, { "status": "strong_adoption_signal_with_decision_scope_caveat", "counterpoints": [ "Adoption surveys are diffusion evidence, not proof of high-stakes autonomous decisions.", "Regulated finance usually adds audit/policy controls, so the point is governed decision-support rather than free-running agents." ], "id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "title_ru": "Корпоративный decision-support: от BYOAI к governed internal layers", "arc_type": "enterprise_adoption", "start_date": "2023-03-14", "end_date": "2025-11-05", "visual_lanes": [ "decision_support_cognition", "finance_rent", "governance_law", "data_telemetry" ], "thesis_ru": "2023–2025 не были пустым промежутком: LLMs вошли в knowledge work, finance advisory, internal banking tools and corporate governance loops.", "safe_wording_ru": "Говорить не “ИИ уже принимает корпоративные решения”, а “ИИ становится интерфейсом поиска, суммаризации, подготовки и контроля знания вокруг решений”.", "key_nodes": [ "SIG_2023_MORGAN_STANLEY_GPT4_ASSISTANT", "SIG_2024_MICROSOFT_WORK_TREND_AI_USAGE", "SIG_2024_JPMORGAN_LLM_SUITE_ENTERPRISE", "SIG_2025_MCKINSEY_STATE_OF_AI_ADOPTION" ], "kind": "arc", "title": "Корпоративный decision-support: от BYOAI к governed internal layers" } ], "edges": [ { "id": "EDGE_CORE_001", "source": "CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "claim_check", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Экспортный контроль превращает частные продажи и инфраструктуру в геополитический рычаг.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CORE_002", "source": "CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "claim_check", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Model-layer control показывает, что доступ к capability становится объектом власти.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_EXPORT_001", "source": "SIG_US_2022_BIS_ADVANCED_COMPUTING", "target": "SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "evidence", "relation": "sets_up", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Oct 2022 controls создают основание для последующего мирового tier regime.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_EXPORT_002", "source": "SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE", "target": "SIG_US_2026_AI_DIFFUSION_REPLACEMENT_WITHDRAWN", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "evidence", "relation": "walks_back", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Явный tier order был отозван/заменён discretionary режимом; нельзя говорить о стабильной архитектуре.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_EXPORT_003", "source": "SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE", "target": "export-02", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "AI Diffusion Rule — главный факт формализации страновых тиров.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_EXPORT_004", "source": "SIG_US_2026_AI_DIFFUSION_REPLACEMENT_WITHDRAWN", "target": "export-11", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Withdrawal требует формулировать tier order как проект в движении.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_EXPORT_005", "source": "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "target": "export-12", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "BIS D:5 guidance показывает переход от destination control к parentage/headquarters control.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_EXPORT_006", "source": "SIG_2026_BIS_ANTHROPIC_ISINFORMED_LETTER", "target": "export-16", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "BIS letter documents model-layer export-control mechanism, но с contested legal basis.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_EXPORT_007", "source": "export-16", "target": "CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "refines", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Уточняет: event силён, legal validity contested; это не обычный published rule.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_TOLL_001", "source": "SIG_NVIDIA_2025_H20_CHARGE", "target": "export-04", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "H20 charge supports the revenue/rent part of the chip-control story.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_TOLL_002", "source": "export-04", "target": "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "evidence", "relation": "updates", "arc_id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "H20 ban/revenue share evolves into H200/MI325X case-by-case regime.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_TOLL_003", "source": "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "target": "export-15", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "BIS case-by-case regime supports toll-and-throttle wording.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_TOLL_004", "source": "SIG_2026_BLACKWELL_DENIAL_HUAWEI_ASCEND", "target": "export-15", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "qualifies", "arc_id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Blackwell denial + Huawei target show frontier denial and domestic substitution simultaneously.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_TOLL_005", "source": "CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME", "target": "CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE", "source_kind": "claim_check", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "refines", "arc_id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Reframes leverage from simple ban to metered/taxed access.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_LEAK_001", "source": "SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE", "target": "ca-08", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "counterargument", "relation": "supports_counterargument", "arc_id": "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Malaysia seizure proves leakage/route-around attempts.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_LEAK_002", "source": "SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE", "target": "CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Same seizure also proves enforcement layer: transit states become policing nodes.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_LEAK_003", "source": "ca-08", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "counterargument", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Steelman: leakage exists; answer: cost/delay/risk/surveillance still structural.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_LEAK_004", "source": "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "target": "CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "mitigates", "arc_id": "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "D:5/headquarters guidance addresses third-country routing and parentage-based access.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_GULF_001", "source": "SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE", "target": "CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "G42/Huawei divorce shows access-for-alignment.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_GULF_002", "source": "SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE", "target": "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "evidence", "relation": "sets_up", "arc_id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Assurance/realignment precedes large-scale UAE AI deployment.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_GULF_003", "source": "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "target": "tier-uae-01", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Stargate UAE supports 'protectorate / sovereign buyer' tiering.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_GULF_004", "source": "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI", "target": "tier-ksa-01", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A/B", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "HUMAIN/xAI/Nvidia support Saudi sovereign buyer thesis.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_GULF_005", "source": "tier-uae-01", "target": "openweight-04", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "parallel", "arc_id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "UAE case parallels broader pattern: sovereign branding on foreign foundations.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CN_001", "source": "export-05", "target": "tier-cn-01", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "countermove", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Rare earth controls show China has its own production-structure leverage.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CN_002", "source": "SIG_CHINA_2025_ALIBABA_380B_AI_CLOUD", "target": "tier-cn-01", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Alibaba capex supports continued counter-stack scaling.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CN_003", "source": "openweight-01", "target": "openweight-02", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "walks_back", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "DeepSeek shock gives model-layer exit, but learning curves/chips remain binding.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CN_004", "source": "openweight-03", "target": "openweight-02", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "qualifies", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B/C", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "DeepSeek V4 Ascend support shows trajectory, but training-vs-inference remains uncertain.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CN_005", "source": "SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL", "target": "cyber-06", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports_as_claim_not_fact", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "D", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "360 event confirms strategic claim, not independent capability.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CN_006", "source": "cyber-06", "target": "CLM_010_360_COUNTER_STACK", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "challenges", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "D", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "360 capability should stay disputed rather than verified.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CYBER_001", "source": "cyber-01", "target": "CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "AIxCC supports automated find-and-fix, not autonomous offense.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CYBER_002", "source": "cyber-02", "target": "CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "challenges_overclaim", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "D", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "GTG-1002 remains disputed; prevents offense-at-scale overclaim.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CYBER_003", "source": "cyber-03", "target": "cyber-04", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Big Sleep shows defenders also wield AI vulnerability discovery.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CYBER_004", "source": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271", "target": "CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports_but_limits", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Firefox evidence supports defender step-change but not autonomous offensive 0-day at scale.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CYBER_005", "source": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LINKED_REDISCOVERY_COUNTEREVIDENCE", "target": "CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "walks_back", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Rediscovery counterevidence tempers Mythos '0-day factory' framing.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CYBER_006", "source": "cyber-07", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Reframes Mythos as access asymmetry, not settled capability leap.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CYBER_007", "source": "cyber-04", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Defense can scale too; drop offense-dominance language.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_QAC_001", "source": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "OpenAI policy supplies primary evidence for quiet review/approval and human review controls.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_QAC_002", "source": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "target": "CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "ASL-3 supports special CBRN/biotech access governance.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_QAC_003", "source": "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "target": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "evidence", "relation": "develops_into", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Planned ASL-3 due diligence develops into activated ASL-3 controls.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_QAC_004", "source": "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "GPT-5.6 vetted partners show pre-release gating.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_QAC_005", "source": "SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_MYTHOS_TRUSTED_ORGS", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Mythos trusted orgs operationalize trusted-user access.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_QAC_006", "source": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "claim_check", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A/B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Quiet access controls make access itself a governance layer.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_001", "source": "SIG_2024_PALANTIR_TITAN_ARMY", "target": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "evidence", "relation": "develops_into", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "TITAN tactical edge and Maven program-of-record show Palantir expanding across military decision layers.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_002", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Maven institutionalizes Palantir as decision-support operating layer.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_003", "source": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "target": "CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "NATO MSS supports Palantir as alliance decision platform.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_004", "source": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_PRIMARY", "target": "cogsec-09", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Primary Army EA record supports consolidation but corrects money-status overclaim.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_005", "source": "cogsec-09", "target": "CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports_with_caveat", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "75 contracts consolidated supports lock-in; $10B is ceiling not spend.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_006", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "target": "CLM_019_PALANTIR_DATA_SOVEREIGNTY_COUNTERARGUMENT", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "walks_back", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "NHS case forces correction: Palantir supplies operational layer, not necessarily data ownership.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_007", "source": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source_kind": "claim_check", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Palantir shows decision sovereignty risk at institutional workflow layer.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_008", "source": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_IMMIGRATIONOS", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "generalizes", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "ICE ImmigrationOS generalizes Palantir logic from military to civilian enforcement.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_PAL_009", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MET_POLICE_AI", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "generalizes", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Met Police case shows Palantir-style AI in internal policing/governance workflows.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_COG_001", "source": "cogsec-01", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports_mechanism", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Data poisoning gives concrete knowledge-structure attack surface.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_COG_002", "source": "cogsec-02", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports_mechanism", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "OWASP LLM01 gives primary risk taxonomy for prompt injection.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_COG_003", "source": "cogsec-05", "target": "cogsec-06", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "parallel", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Web-scale prompt injection and resume injection show mechanism entering real data/workflows.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_COG_004", "source": "cogsec-06", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Resume prompt injection gives observed AI-mediated evaluation workflow risk.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_COG_005", "source": "cogsec-07", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Agent red-team quantifies vulnerability to hidden-instruction attacks.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_COG_006", "source": "cogsec-03", "target": "CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "DoD agentic contracts show frontier labs entering national-security workflows.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_COG_007", "source": "GAP_005_PUBLIC_SECTOR_DECISION_SUPPORT", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "gap", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "limits", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Need confirmed government/enterprise decision-support incident; don't overclaim exploitation.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ENERGY_001", "source": "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_CONCENTRATED_SITING_POWER_STRESS", "target": "scale-10", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Six-firm TWh projection supports energy as bottom stack layer.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ENERGY_002", "source": "SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS", "target": "scale-10", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "mitigates", "arc_id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "130 kW flexible cluster mitigates absolute bottleneck framing.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ENERGY_003", "source": "SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION", "target": "ca-09", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "counterargument", "relation": "supports_counterargument", "arc_id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "3–21% grid cost reduction supports flexibility counterargument.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ENERGY_004", "source": "SIG_2026_DATA_CENTER_BACKLASH_US_POLL", "target": "scale-11", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Poll supports political surface/backlash to data centers.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ENERGY_005", "source": "scale-10", "target": "CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Factcheck claim feeds high-level claim-check: energy is real but flexible.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_WAR_001", "source": "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DOMESTIC_AI_COMPUTE_MILITARY_DEMAND", "target": "cogsec-10", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Ukraine military AI demand connects battlefield AI to sovereign compute.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_WAR_002", "source": "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DRONE_FOOTAGE_AI_TRAINING", "target": "cogsec-10", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Drone-footage corpus supports war as data flywheel.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_WAR_003", "source": "cogsec-10", "target": "CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B/C", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Factcheck claim links telemetry to thesis-level war data flywheel.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_WAR_004", "source": "SIG_2026_SOUTH_KOREA_DRONE_WARRIORS_AI_SWARMS", "target": "cogsec-11", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "South Korea plan shows mass force-structure adoption.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_WAR_005", "source": "SIG_2026_PUBLIC_SUPPORT_MILITARY_AI_NINE_COUNTRIES", "target": "cogsec-11", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "qualifies", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Public legitimacy supports conditional military AI but sets red line around lethal autonomy.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_WAR_006", "source": "GAP_022_UKRAINE_AUTONOMOUS_TARGETING_PRIMARY", "target": "CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "source_kind": "gap", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "limits", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Need primary proof before claiming fully autonomous targeting.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_FIN_001", "source": "SIG_2026_JPMORGAN_AI_INVESTMENT_BANKING_AND_MYTHOS", "target": "CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "JPMorgan AI tools show critical business/revenue workflow adoption.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_FIN_002", "source": "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "target": "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "US regulators scrutinize lending/KYC/sanctions AI; supports critical finance governance layer.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_FIN_003", "source": "SIG_2026_RBI_AI_KILL_SWITCH_FINANCE", "target": "cogsec-12", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "RBI draft gives decommissioning/kill-switch logic.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_FIN_004", "source": "cogsec-12", "target": "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Factcheck claim ties finance adoption to shutdown governance.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_FIN_005", "source": "GAP_023_FINANCE_AI_RULE_FINALIZATION", "target": "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "source_kind": "gap", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "limits", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Final rules and actual implementation remain open.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_DS_001", "source": "SIG_2026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MILITARY_AI_FRAMEWORK", "target": "cogsec-13", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Preprint formalizes supplier boundary control and mitigation architecture.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_DS_002", "source": "cogsec-13", "target": "CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Claim-check translates decision-sovereignty risk into safe wording.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_DS_003", "source": "CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source_kind": "claim_check", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Mitigation claim defines the 'solution side' of the Palantir/vendor-model story.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_OPEN_001", "source": "openweight-01", "target": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "arc", "relation": "supports_arc", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "DeepSeek R1 supports model-artifact exit at the open-weight layer.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_OPEN_002", "source": "openweight-01", "target": "openweight-02", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "walks_back", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "energy_compute_chips", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "DeepSeek shock is walked back by learning-curve/chip dependence constraints.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_OPEN_003", "source": "openweight-04", "target": "CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "parallel", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Sovereign branding on foreign foundations parallels Gulf conditional access.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_OPEN_004", "source": "tier-india-01", "target": "openweight-04", "source_kind": "claim", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A/C", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "IndiaAI case supports managed dependence / sovereign branding on foreign compute.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_001", "source": "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "target": "CLM_001_INFRA_RACE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE поддерживает CLM_001_INFRA_RACE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_002", "source": "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI", "target": "CLM_001_INFRA_RACE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI поддерживает CLM_001_INFRA_RACE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_003", "source": "SIG_CHINA_2025_ALIBABA_380B_AI_CLOUD", "target": "CLM_001_INFRA_RACE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_CHINA_2025_ALIBABA_380B_AI_CLOUD поддерживает CLM_001_INFRA_RACE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_004", "source": "SIG_INDIA_2026_AMAZON_13B_CLOUD_AI", "target": "CLM_001_INFRA_RACE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_INDIA_2026_AMAZON_13B_CLOUD_AI поддерживает CLM_001_INFRA_RACE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_005", "source": "SIG_JAPAN_2026_BLACKSTONE_30B_AI_DC", "target": "CLM_001_INFRA_RACE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_JAPAN_2026_BLACKSTONE_30B_AI_DC поддерживает CLM_001_INFRA_RACE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_006", "source": "SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE", "target": "CLM_002_TIERING", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_US_2025_AI_DIFFUSION_RULE поддерживает CLM_002_TIERING.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_007", "source": "SIG_US_2026_AI_DIFFUSION_REPLACEMENT_WITHDRAWN", "target": "CLM_002_TIERING", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_US_2026_AI_DIFFUSION_REPLACEMENT_WITHDRAWN поддерживает CLM_002_TIERING.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_008", "source": "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "target": "CLM_002_TIERING", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE поддерживает CLM_002_TIERING.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_009", "source": "SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE", "target": "CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE поддерживает CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_010", "source": "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE", "target": "CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE поддерживает CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_011", "source": "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI", "target": "CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI поддерживает CLM_003_GULF_PROTECTORATE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_012", "source": "SIG_NVIDIA_2025_H20_CHARGE", "target": "CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_NVIDIA_2025_H20_CHARGE поддерживает CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_013", "source": "SIG_US_2024_BIS_HBM_ENTITY_LIST", "target": "CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_US_2024_BIS_HBM_ENTITY_LIST поддерживает CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_014", "source": "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "target": "CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE поддерживает CLM_004_EXPORT_CONTROLS_AS_LEVERAGE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_015", "source": "SIG_EU_2025_INVESTAI_GIGAFACTORIES", "target": "CLM_005_EU_SEMI_PERIPHERY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_EU_2025_INVESTAI_GIGAFACTORIES поддерживает CLM_005_EU_SEMI_PERIPHERY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_016", "source": "SIG_EU_2026_AWS_AZURE_DMA_GATEKEEPERS", "target": "CLM_005_EU_SEMI_PERIPHERY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_EU_2026_AWS_AZURE_DMA_GATEKEEPERS поддерживает CLM_005_EU_SEMI_PERIPHERY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_017", "source": "SIG_EU_2026_PAX_SILICA", "target": "CLM_005_EU_SEMI_PERIPHERY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_EU_2026_PAX_SILICA поддерживает CLM_005_EU_SEMI_PERIPHERY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_018", "source": "SIG_CYBER_2025_AIXCC_FINAL", "target": "CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_CYBER_2025_AIXCC_FINAL поддерживает CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_019", "source": "SIG_CYBER_2026_OSS_CRS", "target": "CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_CYBER_2026_OSS_CRS поддерживает CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_020", "source": "SIG_COG_2026_INDIRECT_PROMPT_INJECTION_WILD", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_COG_2026_INDIRECT_PROMPT_INJECTION_WILD поддерживает CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_021", "source": "SIG_COG_2026_RESUME_PROMPT_INJECTION", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_COG_2026_RESUME_PROMPT_INJECTION поддерживает CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_022", "source": "SIG_COG_2026_AGENT_IPI_COMPETITION", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_COG_2026_AGENT_IPI_COMPETITION поддерживает CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_023", "source": "SIG_AGENTS_2026_AGENT_INDEX", "target": "CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_AGENTS_2026_AGENT_INDEX поддерживает CLM_007_COGNITIVE_SECURITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_024", "source": "SIG_2026_US_MODEL_EXPORT_CONTROL_ANTHROPIC_JUNE12", "target": "CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_US_MODEL_EXPORT_CONTROL_ANTHROPIC_JUNE12 поддерживает CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_025", "source": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LIMITED_RESTORE_TRUSTED_US_ORGS", "target": "CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LIMITED_RESTORE_TRUSTED_US_ORGS поддерживает CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_026", "source": "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_STAGED_RELEASE", "target": "CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_STAGED_RELEASE поддерживает CLM_008_MODEL_LAYER_EXPORT_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_027", "source": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271", "target": "CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271 поддерживает CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_028", "source": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_CLASSIFIED_SYSTEMS_TEST", "target": "CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_MYTHOS_CLASSIFIED_SYSTEMS_TEST поддерживает CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_029", "source": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LINKED_REDISCOVERY_COUNTEREVIDENCE", "target": "CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_MYTHOS_LINKED_REDISCOVERY_COUNTEREVIDENCE поддерживает CLM_009_MYTHOS_CAPABILITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_030", "source": "SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL", "target": "CLM_010_360_COUNTER_STACK", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL поддерживает CLM_010_360_COUNTER_STACK.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_031", "source": "SIG_2026_360_ZHOU_HABR_STRATEGIC_SPEECH", "target": "CLM_010_360_COUNTER_STACK", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_360_ZHOU_HABR_STRATEGIC_SPEECH поддерживает CLM_010_360_COUNTER_STACK.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_032", "source": "SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL", "target": "CLM_011_AGENT_HARNESS_ROUTE_AROUND", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_360_YITIAN_TULONG_UNVEIL поддерживает CLM_011_AGENT_HARNESS_ROUTE_AROUND.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_033", "source": "SIG_2026_360_ZHOU_HABR_STRATEGIC_SPEECH", "target": "CLM_011_AGENT_HARNESS_ROUTE_AROUND", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_360_ZHOU_HABR_STRATEGIC_SPEECH поддерживает CLM_011_AGENT_HARNESS_ROUTE_AROUND.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_034", "source": "SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD", "target": "CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD поддерживает CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_035", "source": "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "target": "CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL поддерживает CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_036", "source": "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "target": "CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY поддерживает CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_037", "source": "SIG_2026_JPMORGAN_AI_INVESTMENT_BANKING_AND_MYTHOS", "target": "CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_JPMORGAN_AI_INVESTMENT_BANKING_AND_MYTHOS поддерживает CLM_012_CRITICAL_DECISION_USE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_038", "source": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES поддерживает CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_039", "source": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS поддерживает CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_040", "source": "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE поддерживает CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_041", "source": "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS поддерживает CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_042", "source": "SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_MYTHOS_TRUSTED_ORGS", "target": "CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_MYTHOS_TRUSTED_ORGS поддерживает CLM_013_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_043", "source": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "target": "CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS поддерживает CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_044", "source": "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "target": "CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE поддерживает CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_045", "source": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES", "target": "CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES поддерживает CLM_014_BIOTECH_CBRN_GATING.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_046", "source": "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "target": "CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL поддерживает CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_047", "source": "SIG_2026_PENTAGON_SEVEN_AI_COMPANIES_CLASSIFIED_NETWORKS", "target": "CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PENTAGON_SEVEN_AI_COMPANIES_CLASSIFIED_NETWORKS поддерживает CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_048", "source": "SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD", "target": "CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD поддерживает CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_049", "source": "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS", "target": "CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS поддерживает CLM_015_MILITARY_SUPPLIER_BOUNDARY_CONTROL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_050", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED поддерживает CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_051", "source": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS поддерживает CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_052", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M поддерживает CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_053", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS поддерживает CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_054", "source": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_IMMIGRATIONOS", "target": "CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_IMMIGRATIONOS поддерживает CLM_016_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_055", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "target": "CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M поддерживает CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_056", "source": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_ENTERPRISE", "target": "CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_ENTERPRISE поддерживает CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_057", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "target": "CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS поддерживает CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_058", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MET_POLICE_AI", "target": "CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MET_POLICE_AI поддерживает CLM_017_PALANTIR_VENDOR_LOCK_IN.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_059", "source": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "target": "CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS поддерживает CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_060", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "target": "CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M поддерживает CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_061", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "target": "CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED поддерживает CLM_018_PALANTIR_ALLIED_DEPENDENCY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_062", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS", "target": "CLM_019_PALANTIR_DATA_SOVEREIGNTY_COUNTERARGUMENT", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS поддерживает CLM_019_PALANTIR_DATA_SOVEREIGNTY_COUNTERARGUMENT.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_063", "source": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_AGGREGATE_INVESTMENT", "target": "CLM_020_SCALE_PRIMARY_NUMBERS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_STANFORD_AGGREGATE_INVESTMENT поддерживает CLM_020_SCALE_PRIMARY_NUMBERS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_064", "source": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_GUIDANCE_FUND_CLARIFY", "target": "CLM_020_SCALE_PRIMARY_NUMBERS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_STANFORD_GUIDANCE_FUND_CLARIFY поддерживает CLM_020_SCALE_PRIMARY_NUMBERS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_065", "source": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_MODELS_COMPUTE_TALENT", "target": "CLM_020_SCALE_PRIMARY_NUMBERS", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_STANFORD_MODELS_COMPUTE_TALENT поддерживает CLM_020_SCALE_PRIMARY_NUMBERS.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_066", "source": "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "target": "CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE поддерживает CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_067", "source": "SIG_2026_NVIDIA_H200_LICENSE_SMALL", "target": "CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_NVIDIA_H200_LICENSE_SMALL поддерживает CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_068", "source": "SIG_2026_BLACKWELL_DENIAL_HUAWEI_ASCEND", "target": "CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_BLACKWELL_DENIAL_HUAWEI_ASCEND поддерживает CLM_021_CHIP_TOLL_REGIME.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_069", "source": "SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE", "target": "CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE поддерживает CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_070", "source": "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "target": "CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE поддерживает CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_071", "source": "SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE", "target": "CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_BIS_H200_MI325X_CASEBYCASE поддерживает CLM_022_CONTROLS_LEAK_BUT_POLICE.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_072", "source": "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_POWER_STRESS_REVIEW", "target": "CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_POWER_STRESS_REVIEW поддерживает CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_073", "source": "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_CONCENTRATED_SITING_POWER_STRESS", "target": "CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_CONCENTRATED_SITING_POWER_STRESS поддерживает CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_074", "source": "SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS", "target": "CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS поддерживает CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_075", "source": "SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION", "target": "CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION поддерживает CLM_023_ENERGY_BOTTLENECK_WITH_FLEXIBILITY.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_076", "source": "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DRONE_FOOTAGE_AI_TRAINING", "target": "CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DRONE_FOOTAGE_AI_TRAINING поддерживает CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_077", "source": "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DOMESTIC_AI_COMPUTE_MILITARY_DEMAND", "target": "CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DOMESTIC_AI_COMPUTE_MILITARY_DEMAND поддерживает CLM_024_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_078", "source": "SIG_2026_RBI_AI_KILL_SWITCH_FINANCE", "target": "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_RBI_AI_KILL_SWITCH_FINANCE поддерживает CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_079", "source": "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "target": "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY поддерживает CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_080", "source": "SIG_2026_UK_FINANCE_AI_STRESS_TESTS", "target": "CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_UK_FINANCE_AI_STRESS_TESTS поддерживает CLM_025_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_081", "source": "SIG_2026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MILITARY_AI_FRAMEWORK", "target": "CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MILITARY_AI_FRAMEWORK поддерживает CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_082", "source": "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "target": "CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL поддерживает CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_AUTO_SUPPORT_083", "source": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "target": "CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "thin", "summary_ru": "Автосвязь из existing supporting_evidence: SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED поддерживает CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": true }, { "id": "EDGE_CA_001", "source": "ca-01", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "counterargument", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "reframes", "arc_id": "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Типологии уже существуют; вклад — в механизме, а не в карте тиров.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CA_002", "source": "ca-03", "target": "CLM_006_MACHINE_SPEED_CYBER", "source_kind": "counterargument", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "limits", "arc_id": "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Machine-speed 0-day contested; keep as stress-test.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CA_003", "source": "ca-04", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "counterargument", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Defense can scale too; supports symmetry/access-asymmetry framing.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CA_004", "source": "ca-06", "target": "openweight-02", "source_kind": "counterargument", "target_kind": "claim", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Open weights do not transfer the whole stack.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_CA_005", "source": "ca-10", "target": "CLM_026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MITIGATION", "source_kind": "counterargument", "target_kind": "claim_check", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "State-owned orchestration can mitigate supplier boundary control.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_001", "source": "SIG_2022_CHIPS_SCIENCE_ACT", "target": "SIG_US_2022_BIS_ADVANCED_COMPUTING", "relation": "sets_up", "arc_id": "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE", "summary_ru": "CHIPS Act creates build-at-home industrial-policy base before deny/condition-abroad export controls.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_002", "source": "SIG_US_2022_BIS_ADVANCED_COMPUTING", "target": "SIG_2022_NVIDIA_A800_WORKAROUND", "relation": "produces_workaround", "arc_id": "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE", "summary_ru": "Oct-2022 controls produce compliant China SKUs rather than a simple stop.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_003", "source": "SIG_2022_NVIDIA_A800_WORKAROUND", "target": "SIG_2023_BIS_OCT_UPDATE_CLOSES_A800_H800", "relation": "closed_by", "arc_id": "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE", "summary_ru": "Oct-2023 BIS update targets the workaround category, closing the loop.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_004", "source": "SIG_2022_CHATGPT_LAUNCH", "target": "SIG_2023_MICROSOFT_OPENAI_AZURE_LOCKIN", "relation": "triggers_capital_and_cloud_lockin", "arc_id": "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE", "summary_ru": "ChatGPT public shock precedes Microsoft/OpenAI/Azure capital-cloud consolidation.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_005", "source": "SIG_2023_GPT4_RELEASE", "target": "SIG_2023_US_AI_EO_14110", "relation": "accelerates_governance", "arc_id": "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK", "summary_ru": "GPT-4 capability escalation intensifies federal AI governance response.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_006", "source": "SIG_2023_CHINA_GALLIUM_GERMANIUM_CONTROLS", "target": "export-05", "relation": "early_countermeasure", "arc_id": "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE", "summary_ru": "Gallium/germanium controls are the early mineral countermeasure before later rare-earth escalations.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_007", "source": "SIG_2023_AIXCC_LAUNCH", "target": "cyber-01", "relation": "sets_up", "arc_id": "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE", "summary_ru": "AIxCC launch in 2023 sets up the verified 2025 find-and-fix evidence.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_008", "source": "SIG_2023_NIST_AI_RMF_1_0", "target": "governance-01", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK", "summary_ru": "NIST RMF is the voluntary risk-management base of the 2023 governance shock.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_009", "source": "SIG_2023_CHINA_GENAI_INTERIM_MEASURES", "target": "governance-01", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK", "summary_ru": "China's Interim Measures add a binding service-governance path.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_2022_2023_010", "source": "SIG_2023_BLETCHLEY_DECLARATION", "target": "governance-01", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK", "summary_ru": "Bletchley frames frontier AI risks as international safety/security problem.", "kind": "edge", "source_kind": "", "target_kind": "", "strength": "", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Контроль поднимается вверх по стеку: chips → parentage/cloud → models.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS_CORE", "source": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Главная дуга экспортного контроля поддерживает ядро тезиса о структурной власти.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "refines", "arc_id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Доступ не запрещается полностью, а дозируется по поколению, цене, объёму, KYC и инспекциям.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Не стена, а вентиль: негерметичный, но структурный контроль.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source": "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Утечки и enforcement вместе показывают, что leverage не требует идеального denial.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Gulf cases показывают суверенность как условный доступ через assurance/alignment.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY_CORE", "source": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Залив связывает finance, production, security и knowledge в стек доступа.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Китайский counter-stack показывает обходы, но не исчезновение зависимости.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND_CORE", "source": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "qualifies", "arc_id": "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Контр-стек уточняет рамку: давление, адаптация и новые зависимости.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Доказан defensive find-and-fix; автономная наступательная эксплуатация в масштабе не доказана.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Mythos/Glasswing важны как асимметрия доступа к cyber-capability.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Policy-gating, vetted users, ASL-3 и trusted orgs — прямые доказательства governance by access.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Palantir показывает влияние поставщика decision infrastructure на видимость, workflow и boundary conditions.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS_CORE", "source": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Palantir показывает операционную власть над данными и решениями.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Данные/RAG/агенты могут менять decision-support изнутри.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE_CORE", "source": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Добавляет слой knowledge-structure capture к общей рамке.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS_CORE", "source": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Energy/grid constraints показывают production power как нижний слой стека.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "qualifies", "arc_id": "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Energy bottleneck реален, но не абсолютен из-за гибкости и региональной вариативности.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Battlefield telemetry, training data и state decision-support связаны в learning loop.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL_CORE", "source": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Война как data flywheel схлопывает security и knowledge structures.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Финансовый AI — critical decision-support; kill-switch/decommissioning прямо про суверенность решений.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN_CORE", "source": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Финансы — одна из структур Strange; governed shutdown усиливает структурно-властный тезис.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Model inventory, validation and decommissioning — контроль доступа/использования внутри критического бизнеса.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE_CORE", "source": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "qualifies", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Open weights — стресс-тест: exit на model-artifact layer, но зависимость на chips/cloud/learning-curve layers.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "qualifies", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "dashed", "summary_ru": "Открытые веса меняют форму доступа, но не отменяют compute/HBM/cloud/tacit iteration.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Open-weight route-around показывает негерметичность контроля, но не его исчезновение.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE_CORE", "source": "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "sets_up", "arc_id": "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "2022–2023 создаёт промышленную, модельную и governance-основу структурной власти.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source": "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "A800/H800 — ранний пример control→workaround→closure.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "sets_up", "arc_id": "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "", "visual_lane": "", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "2023 governance shock предшествует более жёстким access controls 2025–2026.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_001", "source": "SIG_2024_LLAMA31_405B_OPENLY_AVAILABLE", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Meta releases Llama 3.1 405B as an openly available foundation model: backfill-факт для дуги “Open weights: exit или смена зависимости”. Openly available weights are not the same as open training data, open compute, or sovereign end-to-end capability.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_002", "source": "SIG_2025_DEEPSEEK_R1_OPEN_SOURCE_RELEASE", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "DeepSeek releases R1 with open-source model and distilled models: backfill-факт для дуги “Open weights: exit или смена зависимости”. Keep performance claims as developer-reported unless independently benchmarked; open model does not solve compute dependency.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_003", "source": "SIG_2025_LLAMA4_SCOUT_MAVERICK", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Meta introduces Llama 4 Scout and Maverick open-weight multimodal models: backfill-факт для дуги “Open weights: exit или смена зависимости”. Keep 'open-weight' distinct from fully open-source; verify license constraints before publication.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_004", "source": "SIG_2024_GROK1_OPEN_WEIGHTS", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "xAI releases Grok-1 weights and architecture: backfill-факт для дуги “Open weights: exit или смена зависимости”. Open release does not imply training-data openness or freedom from compute/cloud constraints.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_005", "source": "SIG_2024_GPT4O_RELEASE_AND_FREE_ACCESS", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "OpenAI releases GPT-4o as a flagship multimodal model: backfill-факт для дуги “Тихий контроль: policy-gating, vetted users, ASL-3”. Frame as access expansion and product distribution, not as geopolitical control by itself.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_006", "source": "SIG_2024_CLAUDE_35_SONNET", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Anthropic launches Claude 3.5 Sonnet: backfill-факт для дуги “Тихий контроль: policy-gating, vetted users, ASL-3”. Not a control event unless linked to later safety/access mechanisms.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_007", "source": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_O3_O4_MINI", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "model_weights", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "OpenAI releases o3 and o4-mini reasoning models: backfill-факт для дуги “Тихий контроль: policy-gating, vetted users, ASL-3”. Do not treat model release as evidence of autonomous decision sovereignty without deployment context.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_008", "source": "SIG_2024_OPENAI_STATE_THREAT_ACTORS_DISRUPTION", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "OpenAI and Microsoft disrupt state-affiliated actors using AI services for malicious cyber activity: backfill-факт для дуги “Machine-speed cyber: от сильного заявления к честной оговорке”. OpenAI states the observed uses were in support of malicious cyber activity; do not overclaim autonomous offensive capability.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_009", "source": "SIG_2024_GOOGLE_PROJECT_NAPTIME", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Google Project Zero publishes Project Naptime for LLM-assisted vulnerability research: backfill-факт для дуги “Machine-speed cyber: от сильного заявления к честной оговорке”. Research architecture, not proven large-scale operational deployment.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_010", "source": "SIG_2024_GOOGLE_BIG_SLEEP_SQLITE", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Google Big Sleep agent finds exploitable SQLite vulnerability before release: backfill-факт для дуги “Machine-speed cyber: от сильного заявления к честной оговорке”. It supports defensive vulnerability discovery; it should not be used as proof of autonomous offensive exploitation.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_011", "source": "SIG_2024_AIXCC_SEMIFINAL", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "DARPA AI Cyber Challenge semifinal culminates at DEF CON 32: backfill-факт для дуги “Machine-speed cyber: от сильного заявления к честной оговорке”. Use semifinal as program/progress signal, not final efficacy evidence.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_012", "source": "SIG_2023_AP_OPENAI_ARCHIVE_LICENSE", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Associated Press and OpenAI reach news archive/content-sharing agreement: backfill-факт для дуги “Данные как лицензируемый входной слой”. Financial terms were not disclosed; do not infer deal value.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_013", "source": "SIG_2024_REDDIT_GOOGLE_DATA_API", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Google and Reddit expand partnership with access to Reddit Data API: backfill-факт для дуги “Данные как лицензируемый входной слой”. The often-cited $60M/year figure is press-reported; official Google/Reddit posts confirm API access but not price.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_014", "source": "SIG_2024_OPENAI_STACK_OVERFLOW_API", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "OpenAI and Stack Overflow announce API partnership for technical knowledge: backfill-факт для дуги “Данные как лицензируемый входной слой”. Use as access to structured/vetted technical knowledge, not proof of broad model performance gains.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_015", "source": "SIG_2024_NEWS_CORP_OPENAI_PARTNERSHIP", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "News Corp and OpenAI sign multi-year global content partnership: backfill-факт для дуги “Данные как лицензируемый входной слой”. Official release does not give dollar value; press estimates should be kept separate if used.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_016", "source": "SIG_2024_AMAZON_ANTHROPIC_4B_COMPLETION", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Amazon completes $4B Anthropic investment, reinforcing Claude-on-AWS/Bedrock distribution: backfill-факт для дуги “Cloud capacity и vendor lock-in”. Separate the March 2024 completion from later November 2024 expanded Amazon investment if both are used.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_017", "source": "SIG_2024_OPENAI_ORACLE_OCI_CAPACITY", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "OpenAI selects Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to extend Microsoft Azure AI capacity: backfill-факт для дуги “Cloud capacity и vendor lock-in”. Use as capacity-extension / multi-cloud dependency, not as a complete break from Azure lock-in.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V011_BACKFILL_018", "source": "SIG_2024_XAI_SERIES_B_6B", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "A", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "xAI raises $6B Series B to scale AI systems and infrastructure: backfill-факт для дуги “Cloud capacity и vendor lock-in”. Fundraising alone is weaker than a specific compute contract; mark as supporting capital concentration, not operational capacity.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Лицензирование данных показывает доступ к знанию как отдельный контролируемый слой.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER_CORE", "source": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "data_telemetry", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Данные становятся частью структурной связки знания, ренты и доступа.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Cloud capacity и инвестиционные партнёрства показывают доступ как управляемую инфраструктурную зависимость.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_ARC_THESIS_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN_CORE", "source": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "arc_id": "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "style": "solid", "summary_ru": "Cloud capacity связывает capital, compute, model access и deployment power.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "Разные режимы капитала показывают AI-стек как power structure, а не только рынок моделей.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CAPITAL_MIX_TO_CORE", "source": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "Капитал покупает не владение всем стеком, а capacity, доступ, условия и зависимость.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CAPITAL_MIX_TO_ACCESS", "source": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "Где капитал оплачивает compute and model availability, он влияет на границы decision-support sovereignty.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CAPITAL_MIX_TO_DECISION", "source": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "summary_ru": "Корпоративное внедрение показывает decision-support как слой интерфейсов, политик и аудита вокруг решений.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CORP_ADOPTION_TO_DECISION", "source": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "arc_id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "summary_ru": "BYOAI и internal tools переводят доступ к knowledge work в управляемый организационный слой.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CORP_ADOPTION_TO_ACCESS", "source": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "arc_id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "summary_ru": "Широкое внедрение в 2023–2025 заполняет decision-support lane и укрепляет общую рамку.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CORP_ADOPTION_TO_CORE", "source": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "arc_id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_but_limits", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "summary_ru": "Кибер-слой уже включает AI-orchestrated операции и PoC migration, но fully autonomous strategic offense remains unproven.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CYBER_ARC_TO_OFFENSE_REFRAMED", "source": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "story_arc", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "summary_ru": "Даже ранний и негерметичный cyber-weaponization trend повышает стоимость патч-очереди и контроля.", "id": "EDGE_V012_CYBER_ARC_TO_CONTROL_LEAKS", "source": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "SIG_2025_EU_INVESTAI_200B_MOBILIZATION supports the capital-mix arc with caveats about accounting class.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2025_EU_INVESTAI_200B_MOBILIZATION_CAPITAL", "source": "SIG_2025_EU_INVESTAI_200B_MOBILIZATION", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "SIG_2024_UAE_MGX_100B_AI_STATE_VEHICLE supports the capital-mix arc with caveats about accounting class.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2024_UAE_MGX_100B_AI_STATE_VEHICLE_CAPITAL", "source": "SIG_2024_UAE_MGX_100B_AI_STATE_VEHICLE", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "SIG_2024_SAUDI_40B_AI_FUND_REPORTED supports the capital-mix arc with caveats about accounting class.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2024_SAUDI_40B_AI_FUND_REPORTED_CAPITAL", "source": "SIG_2024_SAUDI_40B_AI_FUND_REPORTED", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND supports the capital-mix arc with caveats about accounting class.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND_CAPITAL", "source": "SIG_2025_OPENAI_40B_SOFTBANK_ROUND", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "summary_ru": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E supports the capital-mix arc with caveats about accounting class.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E_CAPITAL", "source": "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_3_5B_SERIES_E", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "summary_ru": "SIG_2025_COREWEAVE_OPENAI_11_9B_CAPACITY supports the capital-mix arc with caveats about accounting class.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2025_COREWEAVE_OPENAI_11_9B_CAPACITY_CAPITAL", "source": "SIG_2025_COREWEAVE_OPENAI_11_9B_CAPACITY", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "summary_ru": "SIG_2023_MORGAN_STANLEY_GPT4_ASSISTANT fills the 2023–2025 corporate decision-support adoption lane.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2023_MORGAN_STANLEY_GPT4_ASSISTANT_DECISION", "source": "SIG_2023_MORGAN_STANLEY_GPT4_ASSISTANT", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "arc_id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "summary_ru": "SIG_2024_MICROSOFT_WORK_TREND_AI_USAGE fills the 2023–2025 corporate decision-support adoption lane.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2024_MICROSOFT_WORK_TREND_AI_USAGE_DECISION", "source": "SIG_2024_MICROSOFT_WORK_TREND_AI_USAGE", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "arc_id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "summary_ru": "SIG_2024_JPMORGAN_LLM_SUITE_ENTERPRISE fills the 2023–2025 corporate decision-support adoption lane.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2024_JPMORGAN_LLM_SUITE_ENTERPRISE_DECISION", "source": "SIG_2024_JPMORGAN_LLM_SUITE_ENTERPRISE", "target": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "arc_id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "decision_support_cognition", "summary_ru": "SIG_2025_MCKINSEY_STATE_OF_AI_ADOPTION fills the 2023–2025 corporate decision-support adoption lane.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2025_MCKINSEY_STATE_OF_AI_ADOPTION_DECISION", "source": "SIG_2025_MCKINSEY_STATE_OF_AI_ADOPTION", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "arc_id": "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_but_limits", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "summary_ru": "SIG_2025_CLAUDE_ORCHESTRATED_ESPIONAGE reframes cyber from purely defensive find-and-fix toward early weaponization with strict caveats.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2025_CLAUDE_ORCHESTRATED_ESPIONAGE_CYBER", "source": "SIG_2025_CLAUDE_ORCHESTRATED_ESPIONAGE", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_but_limits", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "summary_ru": "SIG_2026_LLM_CVE_PUBLIC_POC_MIGRATION reframes cyber from purely defensive find-and-fix toward early weaponization with strict caveats.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2026_LLM_CVE_PUBLIC_POC_MIGRATION_CYBER", "source": "SIG_2026_LLM_CVE_PUBLIC_POC_MIGRATION", "target": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "cyber_security_patch", "summary_ru": "SIG_2026_WINDOWS_DEFENDER_WEAPONIZATION_CLUSTER reframes cyber from purely defensive find-and-fix toward early weaponization with strict caveats.", "id": "EDGE_V012_2026_WINDOWS_DEFENDER_WEAPONIZATION_CLUSTER_CYBER", "source": "SIG_2026_WINDOWS_DEFENDER_WEAPONIZATION_CLUSTER", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "arc_id": "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V013_STARGATE_PLEDGE_TO_ACCESS", "source": "SIG_2025_STARGATE_US_500B_PLEDGE", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "high", "evidence_level": "A", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "summary_ru": "Stargate supports access/capacity politics, but only as pledge/intention rather than deployed capital.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V013_CHINA_138B_FUND_TO_CORE", "source": "SIG_2025_CHINA_NATIONAL_VC_GUIDANCE_FUND_138B", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "summary_ru": "China national guidance fund supports state-capital accounting as a separate capital regime.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V013_CHINA_295B_DC_TO_CONTROL", "source": "SIG_2026_CHINA_AI_DC_295B_PLAN_REPORTED", "target": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "C", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "cloud_inference", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "summary_ru": "Reported Chinese AI DC buildout shows route-around pressure under controls, pending primary policy text.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V013_FRANCE_109B_TO_CORE", "source": "SIG_2025_FRANCE_AI_109B_MOBILIZATION", "target": "THESIS_CORE", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "medium", "evidence_level": "B", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "finance_rent", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "summary_ru": "France AI mobilization supports the capital-mix frame while remaining a mobilization announcement, not spent public capital.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V013_CANADA_AI_TO_ACCESS", "source": "SIG_2024_CANADA_2_4B_AI_COMMITMENT", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "A", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "summary_ru": "Canada adds an all-others public-program datapoint around compute access and adoption.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false }, { "id": "EDGE_V013_INDIAAI_TO_ACCESS", "source": "SIG_2024_INDIAAI_MISSION_1_25B", "target": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "source_kind": "evidence", "target_kind": "synthetic_thesis", "relation": "supports_with_scope", "strength": "low", "evidence_level": "A", "style": "solid", "visual_lane": "governance_law", "arc_id": "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "summary_ru": "IndiaAI Mission adds an all-others public-program datapoint, not a full-stack sovereignty claim.", "kind": "edge", "is_auto": false } ], "thesisNodes": [ { "id": "THESIS_CORE", "kind": "synthetic_thesis", "label_ru": "ИИ-стек как структурная власть", "summary_ru": "ИИ-стек сжимает безопасность, производство, финансы и знание в один слой доступа: через него распределяются вычисления, модели, данные, рента и право действовать." }, { "id": "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "kind": "synthetic_thesis", "label_ru": "Контроль доступа важнее владения", "summary_ru": "Структурная власть проявляется через лицензии, KYC, trusted users, vetted access, экспортные письма, контракты, capacity allocation и kill-switch, а не только через формальную собственность." }, { "id": "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "kind": "synthetic_thesis", "label_ru": "Decision sovereignty", "summary_ru": "Ключевой риск decision-support: кто задаёт версии, фильтры, границы применения, данные, видимость и доступность." }, { "id": "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "kind": "synthetic_thesis", "label_ru": "Контроль не обязан быть герметичным", "summary_ru": "Leverage может быть структурным, даже если есть утечки: важны цена, задержка, риск, слежка и зависимость от разрешений." }, { "id": "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE", "kind": "synthetic_thesis", "label_ru": "Кибер-автономия: оружие есть, масштаб спорен", "summary_ru": "Есть проверяемые defensive find-and-fix, AI-orchestrated операции и публичная PoC/weaponization миграция; не доказан только устойчивый fully autonomous offense at strategic scale." } ], "countries": [ { "geography": "US", "tier_position": "incumbent full-stack core", "controlled_layers": [ "chips design", "cloud hyperscalers", "frontier models", "export controls", "AI-cyber ecosystem" ], "rented_or_external_layers": [ "some manufacturing dependence on TSMC/ASML global supply chain" ], "key_dependencies": [ "semiconductor fabs/lithography supply chain", "energy and grid permitting", "memory/HBM supply" ], "key_levers": [ "BIS export controls", "cloud/model access", "Nvidia/AMD ecosystem", "hyperscaler regions", "security tooling" ], "strongest_supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_US_2026_BIS_D5_GUIDANCE", "SIG_NVIDIA_2025_H20_CHARGE" ], "strongest_counter_evidence": [ "AI Diffusion replacement instability", "chip/control leakage and China adaptation" ], "confidence": "high" }, { "geography": "China", "tier_position": "counter-core / parallel stack", "controlled_layers": [ "large domestic cloud/platforms", "domestic models", "some AI accelerators and data center buildout", "state industrial policy" ], "rented_or_external_layers": [ "frontier lithography", "some HBM/equipment dependencies" ], "key_dependencies": [ "energy/grid flexibility", "advanced semiconductor equipment", "memory constraints" ], "key_levers": [ "domestic substitution", "data/control regime", "rare earth and supply-chain counter-controls" ], "strongest_supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_CHINA_2025_ALIBABA_380B_AI_CLOUD", "SIG_CHINA_2026_AI_POWER_GRID_HURDLES" ], "strongest_counter_evidence": [ "U.S. advanced chip controls and D:5 guidance" ], "confidence": "medium_high" }, { "geography": "UAE", "tier_position": "Gulf protectorate / sovereign AI buyer", "controlled_layers": [ "capital", "land/power access", "local deployment market" ], "rented_or_external_layers": [ "Nvidia chips", "OpenAI/Oracle/Microsoft cloud/model stack", "U.S. assurance/compliance" ], "key_dependencies": [ "U.S. approvals", "external chips/models/cloud", "compliance working groups" ], "key_levers": [ "sovereign capital", "strategic location", "large-scale data center buildout" ], "strongest_supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_UAE_2024_MICROSOFT_G42_HUAWEI_DIVORCE", "SIG_UAE_2025_STARGATE_UAE" ], "strongest_counter_evidence": [ "Conditional access is still access; UAE may accumulate operational capacity over time." ], "confidence": "high" }, { "geography": "Saudi Arabia", "tier_position": "Gulf sovereign AI buyer / finance-rent power", "controlled_layers": [ "capital", "energy", "domestic market" ], "rented_or_external_layers": [ "frontier models", "cloud architectures", "accelerators" ], "key_dependencies": [ "xAI and other foreign frontier providers", "U.S.-linked chip ecosystem" ], "key_levers": [ "large sovereign capital", "energy economics", "strategic investments" ], "strongest_supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_SA_2026_HUMAIN_XAI" ], "strongest_counter_evidence": [ "Investment stake does not equal stack control." ], "confidence": "medium_high" }, { "geography": "EU / France", "tier_position": "semi-periphery with regulation, public compute and strategic chips/supply-chain assets", "controlled_layers": [ "regulation", "EuroHPC/public compute ambitions", "some chip ecosystem assets", "AI Act" ], "rented_or_external_layers": [ "hyperscaler cloud", "frontier model/platform scale", "some accelerators" ], "key_dependencies": [ "AWS/Azure/Google cloud", "Nvidia/HBM supply", "deployment speed" ], "key_levers": [ "DMA/AI Act", "InvestAI/gigafactories", "Pax Silica participation", "ASML ecosystem via Netherlands" ], "strongest_supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_EU_2025_INVESTAI_GIGAFACTORIES", "SIG_EU_2026_AWS_AZURE_DMA_GATEKEEPERS", "SIG_EU_2026_PAX_SILICA" ], "strongest_counter_evidence": [ "Bids/pledges not operating capacity." ], "confidence": "medium" }, { "geography": "India", "tier_position": "managed dependence / sovereignty gap with growing market and cloud buildout", "controlled_layers": [ "large domestic market", "public procurement potential", "some digital public infrastructure" ], "rented_or_external_layers": [ "hyperscaler cloud", "frontier accelerators", "frontier models" ], "key_dependencies": [ "AWS/Microsoft/Google investment", "imported accelerators", "foreign model/cloud ecosystems" ], "key_levers": [ "market scale", "state procurement", "IndiaAI mission if independently funded/deployed" ], "strongest_supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_INDIA_2026_AMAZON_13B_CLOUD_AI" ], "strongest_counter_evidence": [ "Domestic compute mission may improve exit option if deployed at scale." ], "confidence": "medium" }, { "geography": "Russia", "tier_position": "isolated autarky / cut-out stack with forced localization", "controlled_layers": [ "domestic legal control", "data localization policy", "domestic model policy" ], "rented_or_external_layers": [ "frontier accelerators", "CUDA ecosystem", "some open-weight or China-friendly model paths" ], "key_dependencies": [ "sanction leakage", "Chinese/open-weight alternatives", "domestic cloud capacity" ], "key_levers": [ "ban/restriction powers", "data localization", "sovereign internet controls" ], "strongest_supporting_evidence": [ "SIG_RUSSIA_2026_FOREIGN_AI_RESTRICTIONS" ], "strongest_counter_evidence": [ "Actual compute baseline remains under-measured; Nebius should not be counted as Russian sovereign stack after split." ], "confidence": "medium" } ], "counterarguments": [ { "id": "ca-01", "objection": "The tier taxonomy already exists (New America, TBI, RAND, Forrester).", "steelman": "Multiple think tanks have published AI-stack tier maps; a typology is not a novel contribution.", "how_to_handle": "Concede the typology; locate the contribution in the MECHANISM — how export controls convert private sales into rent/leverage, and how the knowledge structure is captured at the same layer as security.", "evidence_status": "Accepted — reframe contribution, do not claim novelty of the map.", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "The tier taxonomy already exists (New America, TBI, RAND, Forrester)." }, { "id": "ca-02", "objection": "AI colonialism / technofeudalism framings are contested.", "steelman": "These are polemical and empirically loose; relying on them invites dismissal.", "how_to_handle": "Make Strange structural power the load-bearing frame; cite colonialism/feudalism only as rhetorical color, not analysis.", "evidence_status": "Accepted — use structural power as primary lens.", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "AI colonialism / technofeudalism framings are contested." }, { "id": "ca-03", "objection": "Machine-speed 0-day is contested.", "steelman": "The GTG-1002 case lacks IoCs and corroboration; AIxCC is synthetic and time-boxed.", "how_to_handle": "Use machine-speed cyber as a stress-test scenario; rely on AIxCC/Big Sleep/OSS-CRS as the verified floor, flag GTG-1002 as disputed.", "evidence_status": "Accepted — flagged disputed in cyber-02.", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Machine-speed 0-day is contested." }, { "id": "ca-04", "objection": "Defense can scale too (AIxCC, open-source CRS), weakening offense-dominance.", "steelman": "The same tools that find bugs were open-sourced for defenders; net balance is uncertain.", "how_to_handle": "Drop offense-dominance; argue from ACCESS ASYMMETRY (who has the compute/tools) rather than inherent attacker advantage.", "evidence_status": "Accepted — see cyber-04 and cyber-05.", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Defense can scale too (AIxCC, open-source CRS), weakening offense-dominance." }, { "id": "ca-05", "objection": "Compute controls leak (smuggling, efficiency, smaller models, agent route).", "steelman": "DeepSeek efficiency, gray-market routing via Singapore/Malaysia/UAE, and distillation erode control.", "how_to_handle": "Concede leakage; argue controls still impose cost, delay and surveillance (BIS D:5 guidance, Chip Security Act) — leverage need not be airtight to be structural.", "evidence_status": "Partially accepted — leakage is real but does not negate leverage. Now anchored by SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE (concrete seizure) and ca-08. Strongly anchored by DOJ cases (export-18): Super Micro ~$2.5B, ALX via Singapore/Malaysia, Janford 400 A100 — leakage is real, but so is escalating enforcement (Taiwan/Malaysia).", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Compute controls leak (smuggling, efficiency, smaller models, agent route)." }, { "id": "ca-06", "objection": "Open weights may not equal sovereignty (learning curves, tacit iteration).", "steelman": "Open weights change the metropole but do not transfer fabs, HBM, tacit know-how or tempo.", "how_to_handle": "Adopt as a central finding (openweight-02); distinguish exit at the model layer from dependence at the compute layer.", "evidence_status": "Accepted — core to the analysis.", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Open weights may not equal sovereignty (learning curves, tacit iteration)." }, { "id": "ca-07", "objection": "Private in form is not always state in function — need concrete control mechanisms, not slogans.", "steelman": "Calling Nvidia a state instrument is sloppy; it is a private firm.", "how_to_handle": "Point to SPECIFIC mechanisms: BIS licensing, the 15% revenue-share, GP10/D:5 extraterritoriality, G42 forced divestiture, DoD contracts, Chip Security Act tracking — control via regulation, not ownership.", "evidence_status": "Accepted — use named mechanisms, not state-company rhetoric.", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Private in form is not always state in function — need concrete control mechanisms, not slogans." }, { "id": "ca-08", "objection": "Export controls are porous; smuggling and third-country routing undercut the chokepoint thesis.", "steelman": "If advanced chips can be moved through Malaysia/Singapore/UAE or accessed through foreign cloud, controls may raise friction but not determine capability.", "how_to_handle": "Concede leakage; argue structural power is cost/delay/risk/surveillance, not perfect denial. Add Malaysian seizure as both evidence of leakage and of enforcement/policing.", "evidence": [ "SIG_2026_MALAYSIA_AI_CHIP_SMUGGLING_SEIZURE" ], "evidence_status": "", "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Export controls are porous; smuggling and third-country routing undercut the chokepoint thesis." }, { "id": "ca-09", "objection": "Energy constraints are overplayed because AI compute can become flexible load.", "steelman": "Recent work shows GPU clusters can curtail, shift and migrate workloads, potentially reducing grid costs and interconnection bottlenecks.", "how_to_handle": "Adopt a nuanced version: energy is a structural layer, but its constraint is region-specific and can be managed by software-defined compute flexibility.", "evidence": [ "SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS", "SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION" ], "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Energy constraints are overplayed because AI compute can become flexible load." }, { "id": "ca-10", "objection": "Private suppliers do not necessarily erode state sovereignty if the state owns orchestration.", "steelman": "A military system can preserve decision sovereignty by keeping routing, constraints, logging and action authorization state-owned and treating vendor models as replaceable modules.", "how_to_handle": "Use this as the governance solution section: the risk is supplier boundary control; the remedy is model replaceability and sovereign orchestration.", "evidence": [ "SIG_2026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MILITARY_AI_FRAMEWORK" ], "kind": "counterargument", "title": "Private suppliers do not necessarily erode state sovereignty if the state owns orchestration." } ], "recommendations": { "ready_to_publish": [ "cogsec-01", "cogsec-02", "cogsec-03", "cogsec-05", "cogsec-06", "cogsec-07", "cogsec-08", "cogsec-09", "cogsec-11", "cogsec-12", "cyber-01", "cyber-03", "cyber-05", "export-01", "export-02", "export-03", "export-04", "export-05", "export-06", "export-08", "export-09", "export-10", "export-11", "export-12", "export-13", "export-14", "export-15", "export-16", "export-17", "export-18", "openweight-01", "openweight-04", "scale-01", "scale-03", "scale-05", "scale-06", "scale-07", "scale-09", "scale-11", "scale-12", "tier-cn-03", "tier-eu-01", "tier-eu-02", "tier-india-01", "tier-india-02", "tier-ksa-01", "tier-russia-01", "tier-uae-01", "tier-uk-01" ], "needs_correction": [ "scale-04 (label $500B as pledge, not committed capital)", "scale-02 (mark guidance-fund figures as estimates; separate cumulative from new fund)", "scale-08 (Nikkei-sourced; mark as reported, awaiting primary)", "export-07 (note standalone status pending and dropped from enacted NDAA)", "tier-cn-02 (mark GLM-5 chip count and DeepSeek R2 reversion as reported/unconfirmed)", "openweight-03 (state training-vs-inference Ascend share is unconfirmed)", "cyber-01 (use DARPA primary figures on slides; note source discrepancy)", "scale-02 (use $184B for AI; $912B is all-industry, not AI)", "cogsec-09 / Palantir: cite $10B as ceiling ($0 obligated at award), not spend", "export-16: label the legal basis as contested/untested, not settled", "scale-10 (frame energy as local/software-manageable, not absolute)", "cogsec-10 (do not claim fully autonomous targeting)", "cogsec-13 (risk is supplier boundary control, not AI commands the army)" ], "downgrade_or_remove": [ "cyber-02 (GTG-1002 — keep ONLY as disputed/D-level stress-test; never as established fact)", "cyber-04 / ca-04 require dropping any offense-dominance phrasing", "Do not present 'AI finds 0-days in seconds' or unqualified 'sovereign AI' anywhere — use the hedged recommended_phrasing in each claim", "cyber-06 (360 Tulongfeng — keep ONLY as disputed/D vendor claim)", "cyber-07 (frame Mythos leverage as access asymmetry, not a settled machine-speed-0day fact)" ] }, "recipes": [ { "id": "VIEW_01_TIMELINE_LANES", "label_ru": "Timeline lanes", "description_ru": "Разложить story_arcs по времени и lanes: governance_law, chips, models, cyber, decision-support.", "recommended_filters": { "edge_styles": [ "solid", "dashed" ], "hide_arc_ids": [ "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT", "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS" ], "min_strength": "medium" } }, { "id": "VIEW_02_WALKBACKS_ONLY", "label_ru": "Только откаты и caveats", "description_ru": "Показать, где рамка была уточнена: AI Diffusion rescission, Mythos overclaim, Palantir data ownership, energy flexibility, leakage.", "recommended_relations": [ "walks_back", "challenges_overclaim", "limits", "mitigates", "qualifies" ] }, { "id": "VIEW_03_CONTROL_ESCALATION", "label_ru": "Эскалация контроля", "description_ru": "Показать движение контроля вверх по стеку: chips → cloud/parentage → model access → decision-support.", "recommended_arc_ids": [ "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS", "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE", "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL", "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS" ] }, { "id": "VIEW_04_COUNTERSTACKS", "label_ru": "Counter-stacks and route-arounds", "description_ru": "Показать ответные ходы: China rare earths, Alibaba capex, Ascend/DeepSeek, 360, Malaysia transshipment, open-weight exit caveat.", "recommended_arc_ids": [ "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND", "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES", "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE" ] }, { "id": "VIEW_05_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "label_ru": "Decision sovereignty", "description_ru": "Связать Palantir, military AI, finance AI, provider boundaries и mitigation architecture.", "recommended_arc_ids": [ "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS", "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE", "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN" ] } ], "connectivity": { "purpose_ru": "Проверка, какие story_arcs имеют прямой выход к опорным тезисам.", "thesis_ids": [ "THESIS_ACCESS_AS_POWER", "THESIS_CONTROL_NOT_AIRTIGHT", "THESIS_CORE", "THESIS_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY", "THESIS_NOT_AUTONOMOUS_OFFENSE" ], "arc_count": 20, "arc_to_thesis_counts": { "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS": 4, "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE": 2, "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES": 2, "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY": 2, "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND": 2, "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT": 13, "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL": 5, "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS": 4, "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE": 2, "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS": 2, "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL": 2, "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN": 3, "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE": 7, "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE": 1, "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE": 1, "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK": 1, "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER": 6, "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN": 5, "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE": 15, "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION": 7 }, "hanging_arcs_after_fix": [], "added_arc_thesis_edges": 29, "interpretation_ru": "Если hanging_arcs_after_fix пустой, визуальные висящие истории исправлены.", "v0_11_backfill_added_evidence": 22, "v0_11_backfill_added_arcs": [ "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER", "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN" ], "v0_12_added_evidence": 13, "v0_12_added_arcs": [ "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE", "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION" ], "edge_count": 257, "v0_13_added_evidence": 6, "v0_13_added_edges": 6, "computed_arc_count": 20, "computed_arc_to_thesis_counts": { "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS": 2, "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE": 2, "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES": 1, "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY": 2, "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND": 2, "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT": 4, "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL": 1, "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS": 2, "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE": 2, "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS": 2, "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL": 2, "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN": 3, "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE": 3, "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE": 1, "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE": 1, "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK": 1, "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER": 2, "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN": 2, "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE": 3, "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION": 3 }, "computed_hanging_arcs": [] }, "visualLanes": [ { "id": "energy_compute_chips", "label_ru": "Энергия / compute / чипы", "default_node_shape": "circle", "notes_ru": "Нижний слой: power, datacenters, GPUs, fabs, HBM, routing." }, { "id": "cloud_inference", "label_ru": "Cloud / inference", "default_node_shape": "rounded_rect", "notes_ru": "Доступ к deployment capacity, hyperscalers, regions." }, { "id": "model_weights", "label_ru": "Models / weights / access", "default_node_shape": "hexagon", "notes_ru": "Frontier models, open weights, vetted access, model export control." }, { "id": "data_telemetry", "label_ru": "Data / telemetry", "default_node_shape": "diamond", "notes_ru": "Training data, war data flywheels, RAG/web/hiring inputs, data sovereignty." }, { "id": "cyber_security_patch", "label_ru": "Cyber / vuln / patch", "default_node_shape": "triangle", "notes_ru": "AIxCC, Mythos, Big Sleep, 360, find-and-fix." }, { "id": "decision_support_cognition", "label_ru": "Decision-support / cognition", "default_node_shape": "star", "notes_ru": "Palantir, Maven, military AI, finance AI, agents, cognitive security." }, { "id": "governance_law", "label_ru": "Governance / law", "default_node_shape": "square", "notes_ru": "BIS, ECRA, DMA, export letters, due diligence, kill-switch." }, { "id": "finance_rent", "label_ru": "Finance / rent", "default_node_shape": "pill", "notes_ru": "Capex, revenue-share, contract ceilings, sovereign funds, cloud investment." } ], "relationTypes": { "supports": "Источник/факт прямо поддерживает claim или thesis.", "supports_with_scope": "Поддерживает, но только в ограниченной формулировке.", "supports_but_limits": "Поддерживает направление, но одновременно ограничивает overclaim.", "supports_counterargument": "Поддерживает контраргумент или reviewer-proofing.", "challenges": "Опровергает или существенно ослабляет claim.", "challenges_overclaim": "Не опровергает факт целиком, но запрещает сильную формулировку.", "walks_back": "Откат/уточнение/публичный или аналитический rollback предыдущего тезиса.", "updates": "Более свежий факт меняет статус или механизм прежнего факта.", "sets_up": "Создаёт предпосылку для следующего события/слоя.", "develops_into": "Развитие одного механизма в следующий.", "escalates": "Поднимает контроль/риск на более высокий слой стека.", "countermove": "Ответный ход другой стороны.", "routes_around": "Обход или альтернативный путь внутри стека.", "mitigates": "Снижает силу риска или bottleneck.", "limits": "Указывает на gap/caveat; требует hedging.", "qualifies": "Добавляет условие или ограничение к тезису.", "refines": "Переформулирует claim в более точную версию.", "parallel": "Показывает аналогичный паттерн в другом домене.", "generalizes": "Переносит механизм из одного домена в другой.", "institutionalizes": "Показывает переход от пилота/события к устойчивому институту.", "reframes": "Меняет аналитическую рамку.", "supports_arc": "Связывает claim напрямую с сюжетной дугой." }, "edgeVisualHints": { "solid": "core support / development", "dashed": "walkback, caveat, contested, limits", "thin": "auto-generated support from existing lists", "direction": "source -> target", "rank_suggestion": "Use manual edges first for visual storytelling; hide AUTO_* edges for simplified slides." }, "gaps": [ { "id": "GAP_001_STANFORD_AI_INDEX_TABLES", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Exact Stanford AI Index 2026 investment numbers", "why": "Slides need hard country and sector comparisons.", "what_would_close": "Extract official AI Index 2026 tables for private AI investment, corporate investment, model counts, compute and sovereignty framework.", "status": "addressed_v0.5", "resolution": "Primary AI Index 2026 figures captured (SIG_2026_STANFORD_*): $285.9B/$12.4B private, $344.7B global private (+127.5%), $581.7B corporate (+130%), 50 vs 30 models, 5,427 DCs, -89% talent, 2.7% model gap. Guidance-fund clarification: $184B AI vs $912B all-industry. Residual: pull exact PDF table cells for footnotes.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Exact Stanford AI Index 2026 investment numbers" }, { "id": "GAP_002_MONEY_STATUS_NORMALIZATION", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Pledge vs committed vs allocated vs spent vs deployed", "why": "Most sovereign AI claims are vulnerable to mixing incomparable money categories.", "what_would_close": "Add money_status and deployment_status to every investment record.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Pledge vs committed vs allocated vs spent vs deployed" }, { "id": "GAP_003_EXPORT_CONTROL_CURRENT_LAW", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Current post-AI-Diffusion-rule legal architecture", "why": "The January 2025 tier map cannot be treated as current without caveats.", "what_would_close": "BIS/Federal Register memo tracking what survived, was rescinded, or moved into guidance.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Current post-AI-Diffusion-rule legal architecture" }, { "id": "GAP_004_H20_H200_BLACKWELL_STATUS", "priority": "P0", "topic": "H20/H200/Blackwell policy status and licenses", "why": "Core to US-China export-control storyline.", "what_would_close": "Nvidia filings + BIS guidance + Reuters/AP timeline rows.", "status": "addressed_v0.5", "resolution": "Current status captured (SIG_2026_BIS_H200_*, SIG_2026_BLACKWELL_*): H200/MI325X case-by-case (25% tariff, 50% cap, KYC, inspection), Blackwell presumption-of-denial, H20 re-permitted under 15% arrangement, Huawei 600k Ascend 910C 2026, Beijing ambivalent. Residual: confirm Beijing import approval and Huawei actual output.", "kind": "gap", "title": "H20/H200/Blackwell policy status and licenses" }, { "id": "GAP_005_PUBLIC_SECTOR_DECISION_SUPPORT", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Confirmed government AI decision-support deployments", "why": "Needed for the 'institutional mind / knowledge structure capture' section.", "what_would_close": "Procurement and policy records for defense, intelligence, finance, procurement and critical infrastructure.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Confirmed government AI decision-support deployments" }, { "id": "GAP_006_OFFENSIVE_AI_CYBER_INCIDENTS", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Real-world AI-accelerated offensive cyber operations", "why": "Machine-speed offense is the most review-vulnerable claim.", "what_would_close": "Independent incident reports with IoCs or credible third-party validation; avoid operational exploit details.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Real-world AI-accelerated offensive cyber operations" }, { "id": "GAP_007_OPEN_WEIGHTS_EXIT_OPTION", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Whether open weights transfer sovereignty or only model artifacts", "why": "Core counterargument to stack-dependence thesis.", "what_would_close": "Compare DeepSeek/Qwen/Kimi/Huawei Ascend/SMIC stack with cloud, chips, training curves, inference cost and deployment capacity.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Whether open weights transfer sovereignty or only model artifacts" }, { "id": "GAP_008_RUSSIA_COMPUTE_BASELINE", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Russia's actual frontier compute and cloud access", "why": "Country card is currently stronger on governance/autarky than compute measurement.", "what_would_close": "Evidence on Nvidia/CUDA access, China alternatives, domestic accelerators, datacenters and model training.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Russia's actual frontier compute and cloud access" }, { "id": "GAP_009_MYTHOS_PRIMARY_ORDER", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Primary U.S. order/license text for Mythos/Fable restrictions", "why": "Needed to determine whether this is legally export control, licensing guidance, voluntary pre-release review, or ad hoc access control.", "what_would_close": "Commerce/BIS order, letter, Federal Register notice, or released license terms.", "status": "addressed_v0.6", "resolution": "Legal basis identified (SIG_2026_BIS_ANTHROPIC_ISINFORMED_LETTER): BIS 'is-informed' letter, Lutnick to Amodei, 12 Jun 2026; ECRA 50 USC 4817(b)(1) + EAR 744.22(b); Bloomberg has a copy. Residual: government still has not published the official order text; legal validity contested and in litigation.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Primary U.S. order/license text for Mythos/Fable restrictions" }, { "id": "GAP_010_MYTHOS_TECHNICAL_BENCHMARKS", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Public technical details of Mythos cyber evaluation", "why": "Prevents overclaiming from press accounts and partner anecdotes.", "what_would_close": "AISI/NSA/Anthropic benchmark descriptions, target classes, success criteria, false positive rate, triage workload.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Public technical details of Mythos cyber evaluation" }, { "id": "GAP_011_360_REGULATOR_CONFIRMATION", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Regulator-confirmed 105 vulnerabilities claimed by 360", "why": "Key number in China counter-stack narrative is a vendor claim.", "what_would_close": "CNVD/CNNVD entries, regulator statement, CVE/advisory mapping, Microsoft acknowledgements.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Regulator-confirmed 105 vulnerabilities claimed by 360" }, { "id": "GAP_012_GLASSWING_MEMBERSHIP_TERMS", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Project Glasswing membership, country count and token credits", "why": "Habr/Zhou speech gives 15 countries, >200 orgs and up to $100M token credits, but this is unverified.", "what_would_close": "Official Glasswing participant list, access tiers and credit terms.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Project Glasswing membership, country count and token credits" }, { "id": "GAP_013_CRITICAL_USE_PRIMARY_DOCS", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Primary contracts and procurement documents for Pentagon/OpenAI/Google/Palantir deployments", "why": "Critical-use claims depend heavily on Reuters/The Information reporting and classified agreements.", "what_would_close": "DoD announcements, contract excerpts, procurement numbers, model-use restrictions, audit/logging terms.", "status": "partially_addressed_v0.6", "resolution": "Primary obtained for Palantir Army EA (W519TC-25-D-0039) and Anthropic $200M DoD agreement (cogsec-03). Residual: task-order-level primary docs for OpenAI/Google/xAI and Palantir Maven/TITAN/ICE task orders.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Primary contracts and procurement documents for Pentagon/OpenAI/Google/Palantir deployments" }, { "id": "GAP_014_BIO_CBRN_EXEMPTIONS", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Concrete examples of Anthropic/OpenAI vetted exemptions for dual-use bio/science users", "why": "Anthropic confirms the access-control mechanism but not who gets exemptions or how decisions are made.", "what_would_close": "Documented exemption process, institutional affiliation requirements, approved categories, appeal process.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Concrete examples of Anthropic/OpenAI vetted exemptions for dual-use bio/science users" }, { "id": "GAP_015_FINANCE_AI_KILL_SWITCH_IMPLEMENTATION", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Whether banks have actual AI kill switches, inventories and independent validations", "why": "Regulators ask for controls, but deployment maturity is unclear.", "what_would_close": "Bank model-risk disclosures, examination findings, incident reports, third-party audit evidence.", "status": "partially_addressed_v0.7", "resolution": "RBI draft AI/ML framework (kill-switch/decommissioning, independent validation, board accountability) + US bank-regulator scrutiny + UK finance AI stress tests captured (CLM_025). Residual: final circulars, supervisory findings, and proof of actual decommissioning implementations (see GAP_023).", "kind": "gap", "title": "Whether banks have actual AI kill switches, inventories and independent validations" }, { "id": "GAP_016_ISRAEL_AI_TARGETING_PRIMARY", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Primary or independently verified evidence for Lavender/Gospel targeting workflow", "why": "Guardian/+972 evidence is important but contested and based on anonymous sources.", "what_would_close": "Official documents, independent inquiry, declassified procedure, legal assessment.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Primary or independently verified evidence for Lavender/Gospel targeting workflow" }, { "id": "GAP_017_PALANTIR_PRIMARY_CONTRACTS", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Primary Palantir contracts and task orders", "why": "Several key claims rely on press reports and contract ceilings.", "what_would_close": "DoD, Army, NATO, UK MoD, NHS, ICE contract documents with scope, data-rights, access, portability and audit terms.", "status": "addressed_v0.6", "resolution": "Primary record captured (SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_PRIMARY): army.mil release + federal award W519TC-25-D-0039, 10-yr IDC, $10B ceiling, $0 obligated at award, 75 contracts consolidated. Money-discipline correction logged (ceiling != spend).", "kind": "gap", "title": "Primary Palantir contracts and task orders" }, { "id": "GAP_018_PALANTIR_DECISION_IMPACT_AUDITS", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Independent audits of Palantir decision impact", "why": "Need to separate workflow adoption from proven operational benefit.", "what_would_close": "Independent audits of Maven targeting accuracy, NHS FDP outcomes, ICE enforcement outcomes, Met Police false positives.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Independent audits of Palantir decision impact" }, { "id": "GAP_019_PALANTIR_DATA_CONTROL_VS_PROCESSOR", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Legal ownership vs practical operational control of data", "why": "The strongest counterargument is that Palantir is a processor/vendor under client control.", "what_would_close": "Contractual analysis of data ownership, admin access, keys, portability, logging, staff access and subcontractors.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Legal ownership vs practical operational control of data" }, { "id": "GAP_020_TRANSSHIPMENT_ROUTES_SCALE", "priority": "P0", "topic": "Scale of AI-chip smuggling and transshipment via Malaysia/Singapore/UAE", "why": "A single seizure proves attempts and enforcement, not total leakage volume.", "what_would_close": "Customs case records, U.S./Malaysia enforcement data, chip model identification, destination country and prosecution outcome.", "status": "addressed_v0.8", "resolution": "Documented via three DOJ cases (export-18 / SIG_2026_DOJ_SUPERMICRO_2_5B_SMUGGLING, SIG_2025_DOJ_ALX_SOLUTIONS_TRANSSHIPMENT, SIG_2025_DOJ_JANFORD_GPU_SMUGGLING) + Taiwan first prosecution. Case values: ~$2.5B scheme ($510M in weeks), 400 A100, 20+ SG/MY shipments. Residual: total gray-market leakage volume remains unquantified.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Scale of AI-chip smuggling and transshipment via Malaysia/Singapore/UAE" }, { "id": "GAP_021_DATACENTER_PROJECT_DELAY_HARD_DATA", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Hard project-level data on delayed/cancelled AI data-center projects", "why": "Backlash and grid stress are critical counterforces, but project-delay totals are often advocacy/aggregator figures.", "what_would_close": "Project-level list with status, capacity, value, developer, jurisdiction, reason for delay and primary local records.", "status": "addressed_v0.8", "resolution": "Hard data captured (SIG_2026_DATACENTER_CANCELLATIONS_HARD_DATA): Sightline/Bloomberg ~5 of 16 GW under construction (30-50% delayed/cancelled); Data Center Watch 75+ projects / $130B blocked Q1; Heatmap 20 cancelled / $41.7B / 3.5GW Q1; Baird 2->6->25 cancellations. Residual: standardized project-level registry with primary local records.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Hard project-level data on delayed/cancelled AI data-center projects" }, { "id": "GAP_022_UKRAINE_AUTONOMOUS_TARGETING_PRIMARY", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Primary evidence for Ukrainian/Russian autonomous targeting and drone-model data pipelines", "why": "War data flywheel is central but much current evidence is company/media reporting.", "what_would_close": "Government procurement, company release, model card, testing results, or fielded-system documentation without operational attack details.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Primary evidence for Ukrainian/Russian autonomous targeting and drone-model data pipelines" }, { "id": "GAP_023_FINANCE_AI_RULE_FINALIZATION", "priority": "P1", "topic": "Final form of RBI and other financial AI model-risk rules", "why": "Draft rules show direction, but final obligations and enforcement remain open.", "what_would_close": "Final circulars, supervisory examination findings, bank model inventories and evidence of kill-switch/decommissioning implementations.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Final form of RBI and other financial AI model-risk rules" }, { "id": "GAP_024_MILITARY_AI_PUBLIC_LEGITIMACY", "priority": "P2", "topic": "Public legitimacy thresholds for military AI by country and scenario", "why": "Military AI adoption may be more politically feasible than expected, but autonomy red lines differ.", "what_would_close": "Peer-reviewed cross-national survey, longitudinal polling and country-specific elite/policy responses.", "kind": "gap", "title": "Public legitimacy thresholds for military AI by country and scenario" } ], "sourceIndex": [ { "id": "src-58", "title": "Stanford HAI", "name": "Stanford HAI", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_AGGREGATE_INVESTMENT", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "scale-01", "kind": "claim" }, { "id": "scale-06", "kind": "claim" }, { "id": "scale-09", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-76", "title": "DOJ (SDNY) indictment via Tom's Hardware / TechTimes / Reuters", "name": "DOJ (SDNY) indictment via Tom's Hardware / TechTimes / Reuters", "url": "https://www.techtimes.com/articles/317083/20260524/nvidia-ai-chip-smuggling-draws-taiwans-first-criminal-prosecution-jensen-huang-rebukes-supermicro.htm", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_DOJ_SUPERMICRO_2_5B_SMUGGLING", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "SIG_2026_TAIWAN_FIRST_CHIP_SMUGGLING_PROSECUTION", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "export-18", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-84", "title": "NIST", "name": "NIST", "url": "https://www.nist.gov/itl/ai-risk-management-framework", "type": "Government / policy", "date": "2023-01-26", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2023_NIST_AI_RMF_1_0", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "timeline-01", "kind": "claim" }, { "id": "governance-01", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-36", "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/pentagon-adopt-palantir-ai-as-core-us-military-system-memo-says-2026-03-20/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-03-20", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-13", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-41", "title": "Reuters", "name": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/rbi-proposes-guidelines-banks-manage-ai-risks-2026-06-24/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-24", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary_about_regulator_draft", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_RBI_BANK_AI_RISK_GUIDELINES", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "SIG_2026_RBI_AI_KILL_SWITCH_FINANCE", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-12", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-59", "title": "Stanford HAI", "name": "Stanford HAI", "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_STANFORD_GUIDANCE_FUND_CLARIFY", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "scale-02", "kind": "claim" }, { "id": "scale-02", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-20", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.08566", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-09", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_CYBER_2026_OSS_CRS", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cyber-05", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-21", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.27202", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-29", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_COG_2026_INDIRECT_PROMPT_INJECTION_WILD", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-05", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-22", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28999", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-05-27", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_COG_2026_RESUME_PROMPT_INJECTION", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-06", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-23", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15714", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-16", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_COG_2026_AGENT_IPI_COMPETITION", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-07", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-68", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06198", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-13", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_AI_DATACENTER_CONCENTRATED_SITING_POWER_STRESS", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "scale-10", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-69", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25098", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-06-23", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_POWER_FLEXIBLE_AI_DATACENTERS", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "scale-10", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-70", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.05376", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-04-07", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_AI_LOAD_FLEXIBILITY_GRID_INTERCONNECTION", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "scale-10", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-74", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.20867", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-03-26", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_DECISION_SOVEREIGNTY_MILITARY_AI_FRAMEWORK", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-13", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-75", "title": "arXiv", "name": "arXiv", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.25196", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-05-24", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_PUBLIC_SUPPORT_MILITARY_AI_NINE_COUNTRIES", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-11", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-24", "title": "arXiv / AI Agent Index", "name": "arXiv / AI Agent Index", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.17753", "type": "Research / preprint", "date": "2026-02-19", "primary_or_secondary": "primary_research_preprint", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_AGENTS_2026_AGENT_INDEX", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cogsec-08", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-90", "title": "Associated Press / U.S. Commerce reporting", "name": "Associated Press / U.S. Commerce reporting", "url": "https://apnews.com/article/78225ba8d1609137e859f68a80f6e91e", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2023-10-17", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2023_BIS_OCT_UPDATE_CLOSES_A800_H800", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "export-19", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-19", "title": "Axios", "name": "Axios", "url": "https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-of-cybersecurity-thought-bubble-04e655f0-73be-11f0-9251-67d188444922", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-08", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_CYBER_2025_AIXCC_FINAL", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "cyber-01", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-71", "title": "Axios", "name": "Axios", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/06/22/ai-data-center-backlash-poll", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-06-22", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_DATA_CENTER_BACKLASH_US_POLL", "kind": "event" }, { "id": "scale-11", "kind": "claim" } ] }, { "id": "src-64", 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"source-group-77", "family": "Washington Post", "sources": [ { "id": "src-50", "title": "Washington Post", "name": "Washington Post", "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/07/31/palantir-army-contract-10bn/", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2025-07-31", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_ENTERPRISE", "kind": "event" } ] } ], "used_by": [ { "kind": "event", "id": "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ARMY_10B_ENTERPRISE" } ], "types": [ "Press / wire" ] }, { "id": "source-group-80", "family": "Wired", "sources": [ { "id": "src-26", "title": "Wired / Business Insider", "name": "Wired / Business Insider", "url": "https://www.wired.com/story/mozilla-used-anthropics-mythos-to-find-271-bugs-in-firefox", "type": "Press / wire", "date": "2026-04/2026-05", "primary_or_secondary": "secondary", "used_by": [ { "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271", "kind": "event" } ] } ], "used_by": [ { "kind": "event", "id": "SIG_2026_MYTHOS_FIREFOX_271" } ], "types": [ "Press / wire" ] } ], "criticalDecisionUse": { "military_state_security": [ "SIG_2026_US_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD", "SIG_2026_GOOGLE_CLASSIFIED_PENTAGON_AI_DEAL", "SIG_2026_PENTAGON_SEVEN_AI_COMPANIES_CLASSIFIED_NETWORKS", "SIG_2026_UKRAINE_DOMESTIC_AI_COMPUTE_MILITARY_DEMAND", "SIG_2024_ISRAEL_LAVENDER_GOSPEL_TARGETING" ], "finance_business_critical": [ "SIG_2026_RBI_BANK_AI_RISK_GUIDELINES", "SIG_2026_US_BANK_REGULATORS_AI_SCRUTINY", "SIG_2026_JPMORGAN_AI_INVESTMENT_BANKING_AND_MYTHOS", "SIG_2026_UK_FINANCE_AI_STRESS_TESTS" ], "quiet_access_control": [ "SIG_2025_OPENAI_USAGE_POLICY_NATIONAL_SECURITY_HIGH_STAKES", "SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ASL3_CBRN_ACCESS_CONTROLS", "SIG_2024_ANTHROPIC_PLANNED_ASL3_DUE_DILIGENCE", "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT56_VETTED_PARTNERS", "SIG_2026_OPENAI_GPT55_CYBER_VETTED_ACCESS", "SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_MYTHOS_TRUSTED_ORGS" ], "safe_summary_ru": "Критический слой теперь двоякий: AI уже входит в военные/финансовые decision chains, а доступ к наиболее чувствительным возможностям регулируется не только законом, но и тихими платформенными механизмами — review, vetting, monitoring, trusted users and exemptions." }, "palantirCase": { "position_in_thesis": "Palantir is a practical example of structural-power compression at the decision-support layer: security + knowledge + production + finance.", "core_mechanism": [ "data integration across fragmented silos", "operational ontology and common operating picture", "AI/LLM integration into workflows", "permissioning, audit trails and human-in-the-loop interfaces", "mission/business process embedding", "procurement expansion and switching-cost dynamics" ], "critical_domains": { "military_and_alliance_c2": [ "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MAVEN_PROGRAM_OF_RECORD_EXPANDED", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_NATO_MSS", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_UK_MOD_240M", "SIG_2024_PALANTIR_TITAN_ARMY" ], "health_data_and_public_services": [ "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_NHS_FDP_ACCESS_EFFECTIVENESS" ], "immigration_and_law_enforcement": [ "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_IMMIGRATIONOS", "SIG_2025_PALANTIR_ICE_FOIA_DATA_PRACTICES", "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_MET_POLICE_AI" ], "commercial_operational_ai": [ "SIG_2026_PALANTIR_REVENUE_AIP_GROWTH" ] }, "strongest_supporting_facts": [ "Maven program-of-record decision", "NATO MSS acquisition", "U.S. Army $10B enterprise agreement", "UK MoD £240.6M follow-on contract", "NHS FDP £330M contract and access controversy", "ICE ImmigrationOS $30M contract" ], "strongest_counterarguments": [ "Palantir often acts as processor/vendor rather than legal data owner", "critical performance claims may lack causal proof", "many contracts are ceilings or frameworks, not spent money", "some military targeting claims rely on classified or anonymous-source reporting", "public-sector resistance and procurement scrutiny can interrupt expansion" ], "recommended_article_frame_ru": "Palantir — не 'модель' и не 'облако', а слой операционного мышления: он превращает разрозненные данные государства и корпораций в actionable workflows. Поэтому он особенно хорошо показывает knowledge-structure capture: власть возникает не только из владения compute, а из контроля над тем, как институт видит ситуацию, ранжирует риск и выбирает действие." }, "cyberPack": { "independently_verified_or_benchmark": [ "SIG_CYBER_2025_AIXCC_FINAL", "SIG_CYBER_2026_OSS_CRS" ], "contested_or_needs_more_independent_validation": [ { "id": "CYBER_VENDOR_CLAIMS_PLACEHOLDER", "description": "Anthropic/Qihoo/vendor claims about AI-assisted or AI-orchestrated cyber operations should be coded as disputed unless accompanied by independent IoCs, technical reports or third-party validation.", "status": "disputed", "confidence": "D" } ], "safe_summary_ru": "Сильная доказательная база есть для automated find-and-fix в соревнованиях и preprint follow-up; утверждение об autonomous offensive exploitation at strategic scale требует отдельного доказательства." }, "cognitiveSecurity": { "threat_map": [ { "threat": "Indirect prompt injection in web/RAG inputs", "mechanism": "Hidden machine-facing instructions embedded in webpages or HTTP responses steer model output or agent actions.", "evidence": [ "SIG_COG_2026_INDIRECT_PROMPT_INJECTION_WILD", "SIG_COG_2026_AGENT_IPI_COMPETITION" ], "gap": "Need production incidents in government/enterprise RAG.", "practical_control": [ "content provenance", "instruction/data separation", "retrieval sanitization", "agent action confirmation", "logging and anomaly detection" ] }, { "threat": "Prompt injection in hiring / resume screening", "mechanism": "Applicants embed hidden instructions in resumes consumed by LLM-based screening workflows.", "evidence": [ "SIG_COG_2026_RESUME_PROMPT_INJECTION" ], "gap": "Need more platforms and non-hiring workflows.", "practical_control": [ "strip hidden text", "structured parsers", "model-agnostic scoring", "human audit for anomalies" ] }, { "threat": "Unsafe agentic deployment with weak transparency", "mechanism": "Deployed agents act across tools while public safety/evaluation transparency remains uneven.", "evidence": [ "SIG_AGENTS_2026_AGENT_INDEX" ], "gap": "Need deployment registry for government and critical infrastructure agents.", "practical_control": [ "agent registry", "tool permissioning", "red-team evaluation", "safety-case documentation" ] } ], "safe_summary_ru": "Риск когнитивного влияния лучше формулировать не как доказанную госоперацию, а как уже измеримую поверхность атаки в AI-mediated workflows." }, "counts": { "geographies": { "US": 84, "Global": 65, "China": 25, "EU": 10, "UK": 7, "India": 4, "Malaysia": 4, "Iran": 3, "Japan": 3, "NATO": 3, "UAE": 3, "Gulf": 2, "Hong Kong": 2, "Macau": 2, "Middle East": 2, "North Korea": 2, "Russia": 2, "Saudi Arabia": 2, "Singapore": 2, "Ukraine": 2, "Allies": 1, "Asia": 1, "Asia-Pacific": 1, "Australia": 1, "Canada": 1, "China-route-possible": 1, "France": 1, "G7": 1, "Gaza": 1, "Germany": 1, "Israel": 1, "London": 1, "Netherlands": 1, "nine-country sample": 1, "North America": 1, "Russia-linked": 1, "South Korea": 1, "Taiwan": 1, "Thailand": 1, "Western Europe": 1 }, "actors": { "US": 50, "OpenAI": 20, "China": 16, "Anthropic": 15, "Research teams": 15, "Palantir": 11, "Financial regulators / banks": 10, "Google": 8, "Microsoft": 8, "US Commerce / BIS": 8, "US Defense": 8, "EU": 7, "Nvidia": 5, "Amazon / AWS": 4, "India": 4, "Multilateral institutions": 4, "UK": 4, "G42": 3, "Oracle": 3, "SoftBank": 3, "xAI": 3, "360 Security": 2, "Meta": 2, "Saudi Arabia": 2, "Ukraine": 2, "Alibaba": 1, "Associated Press": 1, "Cisco": 1, "DeepSeek": 1, "HUMAIN": 1, "Israel": 1, "Malaysia": 1, "Mozilla": 1, "NATO": 1, "Nebius": 1, "News Corp": 1, "Reddit": 1, "Russia": 1, "South Korea": 1, "SpaceX": 1, "Stack Overflow": 1, "Taiwan": 1 }, "stack_layers": { "governance_law": 79, "decision_support_cognition": 51, "model_weights": 49, "energy_compute_chips": 42, "cloud_inference": 38, "finance_rent": 37, "cyber_security_patch": 27, "data_telemetry": 27 }, "source_types": { "Press / wire": 65, "Company / vendor": 27, "Government / policy": 23, "Research / preprint": 20, "Industry / think tank": 4, "Investigative reporting": 2 }, "relation_types": { "supports": 180, "supports_with_scope": 22, "qualifies": 7, "sets_up": 6, "walks_back": 5, "limits": 4, "supports_but_limits": 4, "parallel": 3, "refines": 3, "develops_into": 2, "generalizes": 2, "mitigates": 2, "supports_counterargument": 2, "supports_mechanism": 2, "accelerates_governance": 1, "challenges": 1, "challenges_overclaim": 1, "closed_by": 1, "countermove": 1, "early_countermeasure": 1, "produces_workaround": 1, "reframes": 1, "supports_arc": 1, "supports_as_claim_not_fact": 1, "supports_with_caveat": 1, "triggers_capital_and_cloud_lockin": 1, "updates": 1 }, "arcs": { "AUTO_CLAIMCHECK_SUPPORT": 83, "ARC_CYBER_CLAIM_TO_CAVEAT": 18, "ARC_CAPITAL_MIX_PUBLIC_PRIVATE": 15, "ARC_PALANTIR_DECISION_OS": 14, "ARC_EXPORT_CHIPS_TO_MODELS": 11, "ARC_OPEN_WEIGHT_EXIT_OR_DEPENDENCE": 11, "ARC_QUIET_ACCESS_CONTROL": 10, "ARC_COGSEC_LAB_TO_WILD_TO_STATE": 9, "ARC_CHINA_COUNTERSTACK_ROUTE_AROUND": 8, "ARC_FINANCE_GOVERNED_SHUTDOWN": 8, "ARC_WAR_DATA_FLYWHEEL": 8, "ARC_CORPORATE_DECISION_SUPPORT_ADOPTION": 7, "ARC_ENERGY_GRID_POLITICS": 7, "ARC_GULF_CONDITIONAL_SOVEREIGNTY": 7, "ARC_TOLL_AND_THROTTLE": 7, "ARC_DATA_LICENSING_AS_INPUT_LAYER": 6, "ARC_2022_2023_FORMATION_PHASE": 5, "ARC_2023_GOVERNANCE_SHOCK": 5, "ARC_CLOUD_CAPACITY_VENDOR_LOCKIN": 5, "ARC_CONTROL_LEAKS_BUT_POLICES": 5, "AUTO_COUNTERARGUMENTS": 5, "ARC_A800_H800_WORKAROUND_CLOSURE": 3 } } }