Events as a Stress Test

An English-facing browser for the A1 event layer: 179 signals from 2020-2026, mapped to the ProfGames framework by dimensions of mobility, agency parameters, evidence level and residual gaps.

Dataset: profgames_ai_signals.jsonl Range: 2020-01-01 to 2026-06-01 canonical JSONL English fact-check GitHub
179
signals
7
years
95
A or A/B
91
D05 signals
14
RU bucket

How to read this layer

1. Timeline and walkback geometry

All 177 signals are placed on four carrier lanes. Small dots are events; outlined dots are curated anchors. Red arcs mark walkbacks or qualified outcomes, violet marks escalation, and dashed green marks split decisions where the same institutional question receives different answers.

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Corporate action Walkbacks / revisions Data and measurement Regulation / courts 2020-01-01 · Illinois AI Video Interview Act takes effect, requiring notice and consent for AI video-interview evaluation 2020-08-17 · UK A-level grading algorithm controversy forces reversal 2020-10-01 · Maryland law requires consent before facial-recognition services in job interviews 2020-10-02 · Hamburg DPA fines H&M €35.3M for extensive employee monitoring and private-life data collection 2021-01-12 · HireVue drops facial-expression analysis from AI video-interview assessments after criticism 2021-06-29 · GitHub Copilot launches technical preview as AI pair programmer 2021-07-05 · Italian DPA fines Foodinho over algorithmic management and rider data practices 2021-08-12 · Spain's Rider Law creates employment presumption and algorithmic-transparency rights for delivery platforms 2022-01-26 · C2PA releases version 1.0 technical specification for content provenance 2022-05-12 · EEOC and DOJ warn employers about AI hiring tools and disability discrimination 2022-10-31 · NLRB General Counsel memo targets intrusive electronic monitoring and automated management 2022-11-03 · Developers sue GitHub, Microsoft and OpenAI over Copilot/open-source licensing 2022-12-05 · Stack Overflow temporarily bans ChatGPT-generated answers 2023-01-03 · NYC schools move from ChatGPT ban to AI-use guidance, illustrating the ban-to-literacy pivot 2023-01-10 · China deep synthesis rules take effect for deepfake-style AI services 2023-01-16 · Getty Images sues Stability AI in UK over Stable Diffusion training and outputs 2023-01-17 · CNET AI-generated articles trigger corrections and labor pushback 2023-01-26 · NIST releases AI Risk Management Framework 1.0 2023-01-31 · OpenAI launches AI Text Classifier with explicit warnings that it is not fully reliable 2023-03-01 · International Baccalaureate rejects a ChatGPT ban and treats AI output as citeable source material 2023-03-14 · Meta Year of Efficiency memo asks many managers to become individual contributors 2023-03-17 · Sadasivan et al. stress-test finds AI-generated text detection vulnerable to paraphrasing and spoofing 2023-03-25 · Cigna PxDx reporting and lawsuit highlight automated claim-denial workflow 2023-03-30 · Italy temporarily bans ChatGPT over data-protection concerns 2023-04-04 · Turnitin launches AI-writing detector for education integrity workflows 2023-04-27 · Dropbox cuts 16% of workforce while reallocating toward AI products 2023-05-01 · IBM pauses hiring for roles expected to be replaceable by AI 2023-05-01 · US Department of Education releases AI and Future of Teaching and Learning report 2023-05-02 · Chegg warns ChatGPT is hurting subscriber growth, triggering major market shock 2023-05-17 · Texas A&M-Commerce professor uses ChatGPT as detector and falsely accuses students of AI cheating 2023-05-18 · BT announces large headcount reduction plan partly linked to AI and digitization 2023-05-18 · EEOC technical assistance warns employers that AI selection tools can create Title VII adverse-impact liability 2023-06-14 · Turnitin publishes false-positive guidance for AI-writing detection and tells instructors not to treat scores as conclusions 2023-06-20 · Axel Springer/Bild job cuts become early media-sector AI-role-restructuring signal 2023-06-22 · Lawyers sanctioned after filing ChatGPT-generated fake cases 2023-07-05 · NYC Local Law 144 enforcement begins for automated employment decision tools 2023-07-07 · Australia Robodebt Royal Commission reports on unlawful automated welfare debt scheme 2023-07-10 · Patterns paper finds GPT detectors misclassify non-native English writing as AI-generated 2023-07-20 · OpenAI retires AI Text Classifier due to low accuracy 2023-07-21 · White House voluntary AI commitments include watermarking and AI-generated-content labeling 2023-08-15 · China's interim generative AI measures take effect 2023-08-16 · Vanderbilt disables Turnitin AI detector over transparency and false-positive concerns 2023-09-07 · UNESCO publishes first global guidance on generative AI in education and research 2023-09-11 · EEOC settles first AI hiring-discrimination case against iTutorGroup 2023-09-14 · Onclusive France layoffs cited as European media-monitoring AI displacement case 2023-09-20 · Authors Guild and prominent authors file class action against OpenAI over book training data 2023-09-26 · WGA contract establishes AI protections for writers 2023-10-30 · US Executive Order on AI includes worker-protection and labor-market provisions 2023-11-08 · SAG-AFTRA TV/Theatrical agreement includes digital-replica protections 2023-11-14 · UnitedHealth sued over alleged AI-driven denial of post-acute care 2023-12-13 · Humana sued over alleged use of nH Predict algorithm in Medicare Advantage denials 2023-12-19 · FTC bans Rite Aid from using facial recognition for surveillance for five years 2023-12-27 · The New York Times sues OpenAI and Microsoft over use of journalism 2023-12-27 · CNIL fines Amazon France Logistique €32M for excessive employee monitoring 2024-01-08 · Duolingo cuts contractors while increasing AI-generated content workflows 2024-01-18 · Arizona State University becomes first higher-education institution to collaborate with OpenAI on ChatGPT Enterprise 2024-01-30 · Second Circuit refers lawyer for possible discipline over AI-invented citation 2024-02-14 · Air Canada held liable for misleading chatbot information 2024-02-27 · FTC action bans owners of Automators AI e-commerce money-making scheme 2024-02-28 · Klarna says AI assistant handles work equivalent to hundreds of support agents 2024-03-01 · Russia starts interagency oversight commissions targeting disguised self-employment 2024-03-18 · SEC settles first AI-washing cases with Delphia and Global Predictions 2024-03-18 · YouTube requires creators to disclose realistic altered or synthetic content, including generative AI 2024-03-20 · Michael Cohen episode shows court limits of AI-generated fake-citation sanctions 2024-04-05 · OFCCP flags federal-contractor AI selection procedures for validation scrutiny 2024-04-05 · Meta shifts from removing narrow manipulated media to labeling broader AI-generated content 2024-04-09 · Mobley v. Workday becomes major AI hiring-discrimination test case 2024-04-09 · Turnitin says its AI detector reviewed over 200 million papers in first year, flagging 22 million with substantial AI-writing signal 2024-05-09 · TikTok begins automatically labeling AI-generated content with C2PA Content Credentials from other platforms 2024-05-14 · Google DeepMind extends SynthID watermarking to AI-generated text and video 2024-05-17 · Colorado AI Act covers high-risk AI in employment decisions 2024-05-20 · Scarlett Johansson accuses OpenAI's Sky voice of sounding eerily similar; OpenAI pauses the voice 2024-06-15 · LAUSD's Ed chatbot becomes major education-AI procurement failure after AllHere collapse 2024-06-24 · Major record labels sue Suno and Udio over AI music training data 2024-06-26 · University of Reading blind test finds AI exam submissions mostly undetected and often higher-scoring 2024-07-08 · Turnitin suppresses AI-writing scores below 20% to reduce false-positive misinterpretation 2024-07-10 · Intuit cuts about 1,800 employees while shifting resources toward AI 2024-07-15 · Yandex N.V. completes split from Russian assets and later becomes Nebius Group 2024-07-25 · California Supreme Court upholds Prop 22 contractor classification for app-based drivers 2024-07-26 · SAG-AFTRA strikes video game companies over AI protections 2024-07-29 · ABA Formal Opinion 512 sets lawyer duties for generative AI use 2024-07-31 · US Copyright Office releases AI report Part 1 on digital replicas and recommends federal protection 2024-08-01 · EU AI Act classifies employment and worker-management AI as high-risk 2024-08-04 · Reporting says OpenAI held back ChatGPT text watermarking despite internal readiness concerns 2024-09-12 · NO FAKES Act introduced to create federal voice and likeness protections against AI replicas 2024-09-16 · Amazon requires 15% increase in IC-to-manager ratio and announces five-day RTO 2024-09-16 · Cedefop publishes European Skills Index 2024 technical release 2024-09-18 · Texas AG settles first-of-its-kind healthcare generative AI accuracy investigation 2024-09-23 · California Phone-Free Schools Act requires districts to limit smartphones in schools 2024-09-25 · China issues high-quality full-employment guidelines referencing flexible employment protections 2024-10-08 · Adobe announces Content Authenticity web app and Chrome extension for Content Credentials 2024-10-11 · SEC charges Rimar entities over misleading AI-trading claims 2024-10-14 · EU Council adopts Platform Work Directive with algorithmic-management safeguards 2024-10-16 · French NGOs challenge CNAF welfare risk-scoring algorithm 2024-10-16 · US Department of Labor releases AI and worker well-being best-practices roadmap 2024-10-17 · US Senate staff report flags Medicare Advantage denials amid automated prior authorization 2024-10-31 · ResumeBuilder survey: 51% of companies use AI in hiring, projected 70% by end-2025 2024-11-20 · SafeRent settlement restricts algorithmic tenant scoring for voucher applicants 2024-11-26 · FTC acts against Evolv over unsupported AI weapons-detection claims 2024-12-01 · EU Platform Work Directive enters into force with 2026 transposition deadline 2024-12-10 · OECD releases PIAAC Cycle 2 Round 1 adult-skills results 2024-12-15 · Guardian investigation documents AI-cheating cases and false-accusation anxiety in UK universities 2024-12-18 · FTC final order targets Rytr AI review-generation service 2024-12-19 · Google cuts about 10% of manager/director/VP roles, with some converted to IC roles 2025-01-02 · AT&T begins five-day return-to-office mandate in January 2025 2025-01-21 · Stripe cuts 300 roles while stating hiring plan remains on track 2025-01-29 · US Copyright Office AI report Part 2 says human authorship remains central to copyrightability 2025-01-31 · Dell retires hybrid policy and orders near-office staff back five days a week 2025-02-02 · Positive Technologies reports show quiet restructuring without confirmed AI causality 2025-02-05 · Workday cuts 1,750 jobs while prioritizing AI and platform investment 2025-02-10 · Anthropic launches Economic Index mapping Claude use to occupations and tasks 2025-02-11 · FTC finalizes order against DoNotPay over deceptive AI-lawyer claims 2025-02-11 · Thomson Reuters wins key AI copyright fair-use ruling against ROSS Intelligence 2025-02-13 · JPMorgan five-day RTO mandate triggers employee petition and union inquiries 2025-02-20 · Jinan University and Zhaopin report growth in China new flexible employment postings and applicants 2025-02-27 · Salesforce CEO says AI productivity means no new software engineers in 2025 2025-03-04 · Turnitin introduces Clarity, shifting from output-only detection toward writing-process provenance 2025-03-14 · Chinese regulators issue AI-generated synthetic content labeling measures 2025-03-24 · Virginia governor vetoes high-risk AI bill that would have covered employment consequential decisions 2025-03-25 · OutRush Wave 4 reports roughly 8% return among surveyed post-2022 Russian emigrants 2025-03-28 · 55% of hiring managers report candidates use AI most for resumes; 90% see spike in spam applications 2025-04-07 · Shopify requires proof AI cannot do the job before more headcount 2025-04-07 · Stanford AI Index 2025 documents rapid growth in AI-related job-posting skill demand 2025-04-15 · 62% of hiring managers reject generic AI-generated resumes without personalization 2025-04-23 · Honda US memo requires 80% onsite work from October 2025 2025-05-05 · IBM says AI agents replaced hundreds of HR roles while overall hiring grew elsewhere 2025-05-08 · Klarna begins rehiring human customer-service agents after AI-first service quality concerns 2025-05-09 · New York becomes largest US state to enact statewide bell-to-bell smartphone ban in K-12 2025-05-09 · US Copyright Office releases Part 3 pre-publication report on generative-AI training 2025-05-12 · Chegg slashes workforce as AI tools reshape edtech demand 2025-05-13 · Microsoft cuts more than 6,000 employees while streamlining layers 2025-05-15 · BLS fields May 2025 Contingent Worker Supplement, with results pending 2025-05-29 · Universities revive blue-book in-person handwritten exams as ChatGPT pushback 2025-06-05 · Ohio State launches AI Fluency initiative requiring undergraduates to graduate AI-fluent 2025-06-09 · Chinese AI tools temporarily disable image/question functions during gaokao exams 2025-06-15 · Guardian survey finds confirmed AI-cheating cases rising sharply across UK universities 2025-06-22 · Texas signs Responsible Artificial Intelligence Governance Act, creating broad state AI compliance obligations 2025-06-23 · Bartz v. Anthropic ruling treats AI training on lawfully acquired books as fair use but not retention of pirated copies 2025-06-25 · Kadrey v. Meta court grants Meta partial summary judgment on fair use for AI training record before it 2025-06-30 · California approves employment-discrimination regulations for automated decision systems 2025-07-02 · Microsoft cuts about 9,100 jobs amid AI infrastructure spending and layer reduction 2025-07-10 · METR RCT finds early-2025 AI tools slowed experienced open-source developers on familiar tasks 2025-07-18 · California courts adopt generative AI policy rule for judges and court staff 2025-08-04 · Harper v. SiriusXM filed as employer-side AI hiring-bias lawsuit involving commercial applicant-screening tools 2025-08-15 · Stanford Digital Economy Lab paper finds relative employment declines for young workers in AI-exposed occupations 2025-08-18 · Duolingo CEO clarifies AI-first contractor phaseout does not imply full-time layoffs 2025-08-29 · Study: LLMs prefer resumes generated by themselves, 23-60% shortlist advantage 2025-09-02 · Salesforce CEO says AI agents enabled reduction of 4,000 customer-support roles 2025-09-09 · BLS preliminary benchmark revision shows 911,000 fewer payroll jobs through March 2025 2025-09-17 · China youth unemployment reaches 18.9% under revised methodology 2025-10-08 · Australian Catholic University stops using Turnitin AI indicator after mass false-accusation controversy 2025-11-19 · Russia calls for national generative AI task force and domestic model push 2025-11-19 · Sber publicly frames personnel cuts through AI-identified inefficiency 2025-12-01 · 28+ US states enact K-12 cellphone bans/restrictions in 2025 2025-12-02 · NY State Comptroller audit finds NYC Local Law 144 enforcement ineffective 2025-12-03 · Russian FNS data show registered self-employed exceeding 15 million in Jan–Nov 2025 2025-12-11 · Rep. Foushee releases congressional report seeking transparency on AI-related job cuts 2026-01-01 · Illinois AI-in-employment amendments take effect 2026-01-01 · Russia begins voluntary sickness-insurance pilot for self-employed NPD workers 2026-01-21 · Class action targets Eightfold AI over opaque applicant scoring and data use 2026-02-10 · Federal Register notice proposes July 2026 CWS revisions for digital labor platform work 2026-02-11 · Russian IT junior squeeze hardens as vacancies fall and AI raises entry-level bar 2026-02-13 · RationalFX early-2026 tracker frames tech layoffs as on pace to exceed 2025 2026-02-24 · O*NET 30.2 updates Job Zones with new four-level framework and 325 occupation reassignments 2026-03-11 · Atlassian cuts roughly 10% of workforce while pivoting to AI and enterprise sales 2026-03-20 · Russia proposes powers to restrict foreign AI tools 2026-03-24 · FTC settlement bans Air AI from marketing business opportunities after AI-sales claims 2026-03-24 · Anthropic Economic Index March 2026 adds learning-curve analysis using Opus 4.5/4.6 period data 2026-04-01 · Oracle layoffs become high-signal AI-capex workforce case 2026-04-23 · Mercor AI recruiting platform faces ≥7 class actions after breach exposes biometrics and worker data 2026-04-24 · Utah Medical Licensing Board calls for immediate suspension of AI prescription-refill pilot 2026-04-27 · Alabama Supreme Court sanctions lawyer for AI-generated fake citations 2026-04-28 · U.S. Senate committee advances bipartisan GUARD Act restricting AI companions for minors 2026-04-30 · Meta CEO links layoffs to AI infrastructure capital-spending tradeoff 2026-05-01 · Federal judge sanctions supervising lawyer for AI-assisted false citation by subordinate 2026-05-13 · Russian IT wages polarize as aggregate growth slows but AI/ML and security remain expensive 2026-05-22 · Softline cuts about 800 staff while citing AI-linked efficiency gains 2026-06-01 · K2/Kaspersky survey finds Russian AI adoption outpacing AI-security governance 2026-06-01 · Russian companies report limited real control over external AI services and low MLSecOps maturity A / A-B B B-C / C anchor

Walkback pairs

The important pattern is not "AI claim was false". It is that AI attribution often has to be narrowed after it meets service quality, labor, legal or trust constraints.

Klarnawalkback
2024-02-28
Klarna says AI assistant handles work equivalent to hundreds of support agents
2025-05-08
Klarna begins rehiring human customer-service agents after AI-first service quality concerns

A support-automation claim is followed by rehiring human customer-service agents after quality concerns.

IBMqualified outcome
2023-05-01
IBM pauses hiring for roles expected to be replaceable by AI
2025-05-05
IBM says AI agents replaced hundreds of HR roles while overall hiring grew elsewhere

The company confirms HR-role replacement, but the employment story is reallocation rather than pure net shrinkage.

Duolingoqualified walkback
2024-01-08
Duolingo cuts contractors while increasing AI-generated content workflows
2025-08-18
Duolingo CEO clarifies AI-first contractor phaseout does not imply full-time layoffs

Contractor cuts and AI-first language are later narrowed: the CEO says this does not mean full-time layoffs.

Salesforceescalation
2025-02-27
Salesforce CEO says AI productivity means no new software engineers in 2025
2025-09-02
Salesforce CEO says AI agents enabled reduction of 4,000 customer-support roles

Unlike the walkback cases, the AI-efficiency claim escalates into a stated reduction of support roles.

Detectionfailure
2023-01-31
OpenAI launches AI Text Classifier with explicit warnings that it is not fully reliable
2023-07-20
OpenAI retires AI Text Classifier due to low accuracy

The simplest provenance answer, text detection, fails quickly enough that institutions move toward process, policy and exam redesign.

Split decisions

Some events are not reversals. They show the same pressure producing different institutional equilibria.

State AI law splitsplit decision
2025-06-22
Texas signs Responsible Artificial Intelligence Governance Act, creating broad state AI compliance obligations
2025-03-24
Virginia governor vetoes high-risk AI bill that would have covered employment consequential decisions

Two US states face the same AI-governance question in 2025 and move in opposite directions: Texas signs a broad act, Virginia vetoes a high-risk bill.

Copyright / training-data splitsplit decision
2025-06-23
Bartz v. Anthropic ruling treats AI training on lawfully acquired books as fair use but not retention of pirated copies
2025-06-25
Kadrey v. Meta court grants Meta partial summary judgment on fair use for AI training record before it

Federal courts do not produce one simple answer. Lawful acquisition, pirated-copy retention and market-substitution theories separate into different legal tracks.

2. Trend lines behind the events

These compact charts keep the Russian A1 article's visual logic: the crisis is not one curve, but several domain curves converging on the same institutional reaction: restoring provenance and responsibility.

1. Entry funnel compression

Stanford payroll and AI Index signals point in the same direction: young workers and entry-level software roles are squeezed first.

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 65 82 100 Young AI-exposed workers: 84 Young AI-exposed workers Young software developers: 80 Young software developers Entry-level postings: 65 Entry-level postings

2. Support and contractor roles: wave, walkback, renewed pressure

Klarna and Duolingo make the non-monotonic pattern visible: an AI-first cut can be followed by correction without reversing the underlying pressure.

2024 2025 2026 78 89 100 Support roles: 78 Support roles Contractor / translation roles: 78 Contractor / translation roles

3. Imitation loop

Employers use AI in screening, candidates use AI in applications, and the signal channel starts selecting tool fit rather than human fit.

2023 2024 2025 2026 10 50 90 AI in hiring: 80 AI in hiring AI resumes: 74 AI resumes Pushback x10: 90 Pushback x10

4. School parallel

Student AI use rises fast; the first detector response breaks; institutions fall back to phones-off classrooms, blue books and AI-fluency programs.

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 45 90 Student use: 90 Student use Institutional response: 42 Institutional response Blue-book revival: 80 Blue-book revival

5. Technical and legal provenance stack

C2PA, watermarking, labeling policies and copyright litigation are parallel attempts to restore origin and responsibility.

2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 1 6 12 Technical provenance: 12 Technical provenance Legal front: 11 Legal front

6. Detection wars

Output-only AI detection proves fragile: false positives, non-native bias and institutional reversals push the field toward process provenance.

2023 2024 2025 0 4 8 Detector adoption: 4 Detector adoption Detector failures: 8 Detector failures Process provenance: 3 Process provenance

3. Mediation compression matrix

Events are grouped by the layer of mediation they stress: entry translation, coordination, decision rights and trust/regulation. Counts are heuristic and multi-year; the table is an orientation aid, not a statistical model.

Layer2023202420252026
L1 entry / translation15
B CNET AI-generated articles trigger corrections and labor pushback
A NIST releases AI Risk Management Framework 1.0
A Meta Year of Efficiency memo asks many managers to become individual contributors
+12 more
14
A/B Arizona State University becomes first higher-education institution to collaborate with OpenAI on ChatGPT Enterprise
A/B Air Canada held liable for misleading chatbot information
B/C Klarna says AI assistant handles work equivalent to hundreds of support agents
+11 more
18
A/B Anthropic launches Economic Index mapping Claude use to occupations and tasks
B Jinan University and Zhaopin report growth in China new flexible employment postings and applicants
C Salesforce CEO says AI productivity means no new software engineers in 2025
+15 more
9
A Federal Register notice proposes July 2026 CWS revisions for digital labor platform work
B Russian IT junior squeeze hardens as vacancies fall and AI raises entry-level bar
A O*NET 30.2 updates Job Zones with new four-level framework and 325 occupation reassignments
+6 more
L2 coordination01
A Amazon requires 15% increase in IC-to-manager ratio and announces five-day RTO
5
C AT&T begins five-day return-to-office mandate in January 2025
B/C Dell retires hybrid policy and orders near-office staff back five days a week
B JPMorgan five-day RTO mandate triggers employee petition and union inquiries
+2 more
0
L3 decision rights4
B Dropbox cuts 16% of workforce while reallocating toward AI products
B BT announces large headcount reduction plan partly linked to AI and digitization
B/C Axel Springer/Bild job cuts become early media-sector AI-role-restructuring signal
+1 more
3
B Duolingo cuts contractors while increasing AI-generated content workflows
A/B Intuit cuts about 1,800 employees while shifting resources toward AI
B Google cuts about 10% of manager/director/VP roles, with some converted to IC roles
10
B Stripe cuts 300 roles while stating hiring plan remains on track
B/C Positive Technologies reports show quiet restructuring without confirmed AI causality
A/B Workday cuts 1,750 jobs while prioritizing AI and platform investment
+7 more
5
B/C RationalFX early-2026 tracker frames tech layoffs as on pace to exceed 2025
B Atlassian cuts roughly 10% of workforce while pivoting to AI and enterprise sales
B Oracle layoffs become high-signal AI-capex workforce case
+2 more
L4 trust / regulation22
B NYC schools move from ChatGPT ban to AI-use guidance, illustrating the ban-to-literacy pivot
B China deep synthesis rules take effect for deepfake-style AI services
A/B Getty Images sues Stability AI in UK over Stable Diffusion training and outputs
+19 more
32
B Second Circuit refers lawyer for possible discipline over AI-invented citation
A FTC action bans owners of Automators AI e-commerce money-making scheme
B Russia starts interagency oversight commissions targeting disguised self-employment
+29 more
20
A US Copyright Office AI report Part 2 says human authorship remains central to copyrightability
A FTC finalizes order against DoNotPay over deceptive AI-lawyer claims
A Thomson Reuters wins key AI copyright fair-use ruling against ROSS Intelligence
+17 more
8
B Illinois AI-in-employment amendments take effect
B Russia begins voluntary sickness-insurance pilot for self-employed NPD workers
A/B Class action targets Eightfold AI over opaque applicant scoring and data use
+5 more

4. Signals by year

2025
53
2024
50
2023
41
2026
22
2022
5
2020
4
2021
4

Evidence levels

B
60
A
57
A/B
38
B/C
18
C
4
A/C
2

5. Mobility dimensions

D05 lateral professional exit
91
D09 employment-form exit
67
D08 industry return
61
D06 lateral professional return
43
D10 employment-form return
30
D07 industry exit
29
D04 vertical return
27
D03 vertical exit
22
D01 geographic exit
12
D02 geographic return
3

Agency parameters

A7 institutional constraints
124
A1 skills capital
83
A6 labor-market liquidity
77
A5 credential portability
54
A2 career identity
21
A4 network capital
18
A4 signal preservation
13
A3 adaptability and self-efficacy
8

6. Residual gaps by region bucket

Counts are multi-label: one signal can close several gaps and belong to several region buckets. The heatmap shows where the current evidence base is dense, not where the underlying problem is largest.

Residual gapUSEUUKRUCNglobalother
Integrated agency validation6074623811
Industry re-entry signal preservation metric423342304
Individual panel for employment-form return11604271
Vertical return and track-switch stigma15102082
China/Russia task-vector comparability0002711
Validated individual return option value4100010
Post-2022 Russian credential operation0105020
I03 IRAS1000010
2020-01-01 SIG_2020_ILLINOIS_AI_VIDEO_INTERVIEW_ACT_EFFECTIVE

Illinois AI Video Interview Act takes effect, requiring notice and consent for AI video-interview evaluation

evidence A confidence high US

Illinois' Artificial Intelligence Video Interview Act became effective, requiring employers using AI analysis of video interviews to notify applicants, explain the AI evaluation, and obtain consent before evaluation.

Why it matters: Early US state-level legal signal that AI-mediated hiring changes the candidate's agency environment: applicants need disclosure and consent before algorithmic evaluation.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringhrai interviewnoticeconsentcandidate rightsstate lawalgorithmic hiring

Note: Do not confuse with Illinois HB3773 / IHRA AI employment amendments effective 2026, already separately tracked.

2020-08-17 SIG_2020_UK_ALEVEL_ALGORITHM

UK A-level grading algorithm controversy forces reversal

evidence B confidence high UK

An algorithmic standardization process downgraded many teacher-predicted grades after exams were canceled, triggering backlash and reversal to teacher-assessed grades.

Why it matters: Credential-allocation failure affecting educational progression and labor-market entry channels.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD01 geographic exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationcredentialsalgorithmuniversity accessstate

Note: Not generative AI; strong algorithmic entry-channel signal.

2020-10-01 SIG_2020_MARYLAND_FACE_RECOGNITION_INTERVIEW_LAW

Maryland law requires consent before facial-recognition services in job interviews

evidence A confidence high USMaryland

Maryland enacted a law prohibiting employers from using certain facial-recognition services during employment interviews unless the applicant consents.

Why it matters: Early US state-level signal for regulating automated applicant assessment and consent in hiring workflows.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringfacial recognitionconsentinterviewstate law
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2020-10-02 SIG_2020_HM_EMPLOYEE_MONITORING_GDPR_FINE

Hamburg DPA fines H&M €35.3M for extensive employee monitoring and private-life data collection

evidence A confidence high EUDE

Hamburg's data protection authority imposed a €35.3M fine on H&M for data-protection violations involving monitoring of several hundred employees at a service center, including extensive notes about employees' private lives.

Why it matters: Strong personnel-data signal: HR information systems can become high-friction surveillance infrastructure that affects worker agency, exit safety, and trust in employer-side data practices.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: employee monitoringworkplace privacygdprhr datasurveillanceworker rights

Note: Non-AI but high-value baseline for workforce data governance and employee-surveillance harms.

2021-01-12 SIG_2021_HIREVUE_DROPS_FACIAL_ANALYSIS

HireVue drops facial-expression analysis from AI video-interview assessments after criticism

evidence B confidence high USglobal

HireVue said it was removing facial-expression analysis from its video-interview screening software, while continuing other AI-based assessment features such as language and speech analysis.

Why it matters: Clean hiring signal for model rollback: a high-profile hiring vendor removed a controversial biometric proxy, showing that applicant-scoring features can be socially and legally contested even before final liability is resolved.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringhrfacial analysisvideo interviewapplicant scoringbiometricsalgorithmic hiring

Note: Vendor rollback, not court finding. Keep as B-level event, not proof of illegal discrimination.

2021-06-29 SIG_2021_GITHUB_COPILOT_LAUNCH

GitHub Copilot launches technical preview as AI pair programmer

evidence A/C confidence high global

GitHub launched Copilot technical preview, describing it as an AI pair programmer that suggests lines or functions from code context.

Why it matters: Early mass-market signal of generative AI entering a core professional workflow: software development.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD07 industry exitD04 vertical return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA3 adaptability and self-efficacy
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: codingcopilotdeveloper toolsgenai
Sources: primary 1

Note: Positive capability signal; pair with later IP/security/provenance cases.

2021-07-05 SIG_2021_FOODINHO_ALGORITHMIC_MANAGEMENT_FINE

Italian DPA fines Foodinho over algorithmic management and rider data practices

evidence B confidence medium high EUItaly

Italy's data protection authority fined Foodinho, part of the Glovo group, over use of performance algorithms and rider-data practices.

Why it matters: Concrete enforcement signal for algorithmic management in platform work, useful for testing institutional constraints and employment-form mobility risk.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: gig workalgorithmic managementgdprridersplatform work

Note:

2021-08-12 SIG_2021_SPAIN_RIDER_LAW_ALGO_TRANSPARENCY

Spain's Rider Law creates employment presumption and algorithmic-transparency rights for delivery platforms

evidence B confidence medium high EUSpain

Spain's rider law amended worker-status rules for delivery-platform workers and is widely described as including algorithmic-transparency obligations through worker representatives.

Why it matters: High-signal country precedent for employment-form exit/return: the legal status of platform work changes the reversibility of salaried↔gig transitions.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: rider lawgig workplatform workalgorithmic transparencyworker status

Note: Secondary source used for English-language summary; verify against Spanish BOE if used legally.

2022-01-26 SIG_2022_C2PA_V1_CONTENT_PROVENANCE_STANDARD

C2PA releases version 1.0 technical specification for content provenance

evidence A confidence high global

The Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity released version 1.0 of its technical specification for digital provenance, enabling tamper-evident metadata about content origin and edits.

Why it matters: Foundational provenance standard for testing signal preservation: it defines infrastructure for verifying whether content is human-created, AI-generated, or modified.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry return
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: provenancec2pacontent credentialsmetadataauthenticitywatermarkingstandard

Note: Technical standard, not an adoption event. Pair with platform adoption events.

2022-05-12 SIG_2022_EEOC_DOJ_AI_ADA_GUIDANCE

EEOC and DOJ warn employers about AI hiring tools and disability discrimination

evidence A confidence high US

EEOC and DOJ issued technical assistance warning that AI, algorithms and software used in hiring and employment decisions must comply with the ADA.

Why it matters: High-quality pre-litigation signal for AI hiring: tool design can change access to work for disabled applicants and workers.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringADAdisabilityalgorithmic fairnessemployment decisions

Note:

2022-10-31 SIG_2022_NLRB_ALGORITHMIC_MONITORING_MEMO

NLRB General Counsel memo targets intrusive electronic monitoring and automated management

evidence A confidence high US

The NLRB General Counsel announced an enforcement approach aimed at protecting workers from intrusive or abusive electronic monitoring and automated management practices.

Why it matters: Core signal for agency: algorithmic monitoring can suppress organizing and shape mobility/exit decisions without formal job loss.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD04 vertical returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: algorithmic managementsurveillancelabor rightsunionautomated management
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2022-11-03 SIG_2022_COPILOT_CLASS_ACTION

Developers sue GitHub, Microsoft and OpenAI over Copilot/open-source licensing

evidence B confidence medium USglobal developer ecosystem

A class action alleged Copilot violated open-source licenses and developer rights by training on and generating code from public repositories.

Why it matters: Professional-output provenance and licensing become part of developer career/business risk.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copilotopen sourcecopyrightdevelopers

Note: Allegations unresolved/partly narrowed; provenance signal.

2022-12-05 SIG_2022_STACKOVERFLOW_CHATGPT_BAN

Stack Overflow temporarily bans ChatGPT-generated answers

evidence B confidence high global

Stack Overflow moderators temporarily banned ChatGPT-generated answers, citing high error rates and moderation burden.

Why it matters: Early signal that AI can flood professional knowledge channels with low-trust output.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: stack overflowchatgptcodingqualityknowledge commons

Note: Trust/provenance/quality signal, not labor displacement.

2023-01-03 SIG_2024_NYC_CHATGPT_BAN_REVERSAL

NYC schools move from ChatGPT ban to AI-use guidance, illustrating the ban-to-literacy pivot

evidence B confidence high USNYC

New York City schools blocked ChatGPT access on school networks in early January 2023 over learning and content concerns, then reversed the block in May 2023 and moved toward teaching-and-learning guidance rather than simple access denial.

Why it matters: Shows the same institutional rhythm as detectors: first response was surface restriction; later response shifted toward governance, literacy and acceptable-use norms.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationchatgptbanai literacyschool policyprovenance

Note: This is a policy-pivot signal, not a detector event. Useful in the broader provenance-collapse response taxonomy.

2023-01-10 SIG_2023_CHINA_DEEP_SYNTHESIS_RULES

China deep synthesis rules take effect for deepfake-style AI services

evidence B confidence medium high CN

China's provisions on deep synthesis services came into effect in January 2023, creating obligations for providers of synthetic text, image, audio and video services.

Why it matters: Relevant for professional signal integrity and credential/reputation preservation because synthetic media can distort portfolios, identity and market trust.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD10 employment-form return
Agency: A4 network capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricChina/Russia task-vector comparability
Tags: Chinadeep synthesisdeepfakescontent governanceplatforms

Note:

2023-01-16 SIG_2023_GETTY_STABILITY_AI_UK_LAWSUIT

Getty Images sues Stability AI in UK over Stable Diffusion training and outputs

evidence A/B confidence high UKglobal

Getty Images issued UK proceedings against Stability AI over Stable Diffusion, including claims related to web scraping, training data, outputs, database rights, trademarks and passing off.

Why it matters: Important provenance/IP signal for creative professionals: training-data origin and output attribution can determine whether prior creative signals retain value in an AI-mediated market.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrighttraining dataimage generationgettystability aiprovenancecontent authenticity

Note: Use 2023 filing as event; later 2025 UK ruling should be a separate follow-up if needed.

2023-01-17 SIG_2023_CNET_AI_CONTENT

CNET AI-generated articles trigger corrections and labor pushback

evidence B confidence medium high US

CNET's AI-generated personal-finance articles drew criticism for errors and corrections; staff later unionized citing editorial independence, layoffs and AI transparency concerns.

Why it matters: Links AI content production, quality control, editorial labor and professional trust.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: journalismai contenterrorsunioneditorial work

Note: Quality/provenance signal; layoffs had multiple causes.

2023-01-26 SIG_2023_NIST_AI_RMF

NIST releases AI Risk Management Framework 1.0

evidence A confidence high USglobal

NIST released AI RMF 1.0, a voluntary framework for managing risks from designing, developing, deploying or using AI systems.

Why it matters: Baseline for coding whether professional-workflow AI deployments are governed, mapped, measured and managed.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: nistai rmfgovernancetrustworthy ai

Note: Governance/control baseline, not harm signal.

2023-01-31 SIG_2023_OPENAI_AI_CLASSIFIER_LAUNCH

OpenAI launches AI Text Classifier with explicit warnings that it is not fully reliable

evidence A confidence high global

OpenAI released an AI Text Classifier and disclosed major limitations: on its English challenge set it identified 26% of AI-written text as likely AI-written and incorrectly labeled 9% of human-written text as AI-written. The same page was later updated to say the classifier was retired on July 20, 2023 due to low accuracy.

Why it matters: Establishes that the detector rollback was already foreshadowed at launch: the tool was explicitly positioned as imperfect and not suitable as a primary decision-making mechanism.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: educationai detectortext classifieracademic integrityfalse positiveprovenance
Sources: primary 1

Note: Pair with SIG_2023_OPENAI_AI_CLASSIFIER_RETIRED. This is not a separate contradiction; it shows launch-time caveating followed by retirement after classroom uptake.

2023-03-01 SIG_2023_IB_CHATGPT_CITATION_NOT_BAN_POLICY

International Baccalaureate rejects a ChatGPT ban and treats AI output as citeable source material

evidence A/B confidence high global

The International Baccalaureate stated that it would not ban AI software, arguing that bans are an ineffective response to innovation, and instead required use to align with academic-integrity rules and attribution practices.

Why it matters: Contrasts with detector-first responses: IB framed the provenance problem as citation/transparency and assessment redesign rather than pure detection.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationIBchatgptcitationacademic integrityai literacyprovenance

Note: Useful counterexample: not all institutions responded with bans or detectors; some shifted to attribution and AI literacy.

2023-03-14 SIG_2023_META_YEAR_OF_EFFICIENCY_FLATTENING

Meta Year of Efficiency memo asks many managers to become individual contributors

evidence A confidence high USGlobal

Meta announced it would flatten the organization by removing multiple layers of management and asking many managers to become individual contributors.

Why it matters: Canonical D04 signal: manager→IC track switching was formalized at scale by a major tech company.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD03 vertical exit
Agency: A2 career identityA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: Metadelayeringmanager to ICvertical returnmiddle management
Sources: primary 1

Note: Existing v0.2 had AI/layoff signals; this adds explicit manager→IC track-switch evidence.

2023-03-17 SIG_2023_SADASIVAN_AI_TEXT_DETECTION_UNRELIABLE

Sadasivan et al. stress-test finds AI-generated text detection vulnerable to paraphrasing and spoofing

evidence A/B confidence high global

Sadasivan et al. argued empirically and theoretically that AI-text detectors are unreliable in practical adversarial settings: recursive paraphrasing can reduce detection rates while preserving quality, and watermark-like signatures can be vulnerable to spoofing attacks.

Why it matters: Adds the adversarial-mechanics layer beneath the education events: detector failure is not only a false-positive issue but also an evasion and spoofing problem.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA4 signal preservationA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: ai detectorwatermarkingparaphrasingevasionspoofingacademic integrityprovenance

Note: Research signal; not tied to one institutional deployment. Useful as mechanism evidence for the detector-collapse narrative.

2023-03-25 SIG_2023_CIGNA_PXDX_ALGORITHM_CLAIMS_DENIAL

Cigna PxDx reporting and lawsuit highlight automated claim-denial workflow

evidence B confidence medium high US

ProPublica reported that Cigna used PxDx to process large volumes of claim denials, and subsequent legal/regulatory attention challenged the role of automated review in medical-payment decisions.

Why it matters: Adds healthcare-insurance signal for professional workflow compression and human oversight limits.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: healthcareinsuranceclaimsalgorithmic denialprofessional workflow

Note: Use with care: PxDx described as algorithmic automation; Cigna disputed framing.

2023-03-30 SIG_2023_ITALY_CHATGPT_BAN

Italy temporarily bans ChatGPT over data-protection concerns

evidence A/B confidence high ItalyEU

Italy's data-protection authority temporarily restricted ChatGPT processing of Italian users' data over privacy and legal-basis concerns.

Why it matters: State-level interruption of a general-purpose AI tool used across professional and educational workflows.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: chatgptprivacygdpritalyregulation

Note: Platform access / regulatory volatility signal.

2023-04-04 SIG_2023_TURNITIN_AI_WRITING_DETECTOR_LAUNCH

Turnitin launches AI-writing detector for education integrity workflows

evidence B confidence high USglobal

Turnitin activated its AI-writing detection capability for educators amid rapid adoption of ChatGPT and institutional concern about AI-assisted academic work.

Why it matters: High-signal education provenance event: schools began operationalizing AI-origin detection as part of assessment and credential integrity, even before detector reliability was settled.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: educationturnitinai detectoracademic integritystudent assessmentprovenance

Note: Pair with Vanderbilt disablement and GPT-detector bias signals; do not treat detector outputs as ground truth.

2023-04-27 SIG_2023_DROPBOX_AI_ERA_LAYOFFS

Dropbox cuts 16% of workforce while reallocating toward AI products

evidence B confidence high USGlobal

Dropbox announced about 500 layoffs, or 16% of its workforce, with leadership citing slowing growth and the arrival of the AI era while planning to hire new AI-focused talent.

Why it matters: Clean workforce-reallocation signal: not one-for-one replacement, but AI-era capability shift changing return and lateral mobility prospects.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD07 industry exitD04 vertical return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: layoffsai strategysoftwarereallocationenterprise

Note:

2023-05-01 SIG_2023_IBM_HIRING_PAUSE

IBM pauses hiring for roles expected to be replaceable by AI

evidence B confidence medium high USglobal

IBM's CEO said hiring would pause or slow for back-office roles and about 7,800 jobs could be replaced by AI/automation over several years.

Why it matters: Early high-profile example of hiring freezes as displacement, not only layoffs.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD05 lateral professional exitD07 industry exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: ibmback officeautomationhiring freeze
Sources: primary 1

Note: Anticipated displacement; not realized one-for-one replacement.

2023-05-01 SIG_2023_US_ED_AI_TEACHING_LEARNING_REPORT

US Department of Education releases AI and Future of Teaching and Learning report

evidence A confidence high US

The U.S. Department of Education published a May 2023 report on AI and the future of teaching and learning, recommending human-centered, transparent, equitable approaches to AI in education.

Why it matters: Education-policy anchor for A1/A2: institutions began moving from ad hoc ChatGPT responses toward formal AI-literacy and governance frameworks.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationai literacyteachinglearningedtechhuman in loopcredentialing

Note: Month-level date; report is dated May 2023.

2023-05-02 SIG_2023_CHEGG_CHATGPT_SHOCK

Chegg warns ChatGPT is hurting subscriber growth, triggering major market shock

evidence B confidence high USglobal

Chegg warned ChatGPT was pressuring subscriber growth and suspended full-year outlook; shares dropped about 47% in early trading.

Why it matters: Early public-market signal that generative AI can compress an education/professional-learning intermediary.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: cheggedtechchatgptmarket shock
Sources: primary 1

Note: Market signal, not worker-level displacement.

2023-05-17 SIG_2023_TEXAS_AM_CHATGPT_FALSE_ACCUSATION

Texas A&M-Commerce professor uses ChatGPT as detector and falsely accuses students of AI cheating

evidence B/C confidence medium high US

A Texas A&M University-Commerce instructor accused a class of using ChatGPT after asking ChatGPT whether it had written student work. Reports said students' grades or graduation status were affected until the claims were revisited.

Why it matters: Early concrete harm signal: in the absence of reliable provenance tools, educators improvised with unreliable model self-reporting, creating credential-risk for students.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationchatgptfalse positiveacademic integritystudent harmprovenance

Note: Code as medium-high because reporting is strong but not a formal court/regulatory record. The key signal is not Turnitin-specific; it is provenance panic and unreliable detection practice.

2023-05-18 SIG_2023_BT_HEADCOUNT_AI

BT announces large headcount reduction plan partly linked to AI and digitization

evidence B confidence medium UK

BT said it would cut up to 55,000 jobs by 2030; reporting emphasized digitization and AI could eliminate about 10,000 roles.

Why it matters: Shows AI embedded in broader capital-cycle restructuring rather than pure task substitution.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry returnD03 vertical exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: bttelecomautomationaiheadcount
Sources: primary 1

Note: Do not code all 55,000 as AI replacement.

2023-05-18 SIG_2023_EEOC_TITLEVII_AI_ADVERSE_IMPACT_GUIDANCE

EEOC technical assistance warns employers that AI selection tools can create Title VII adverse-impact liability

evidence A confidence high US

EEOC released technical assistance on software, algorithms, and AI used in employment selection procedures, emphasizing that employers can be responsible for discriminatory outcomes even when tools are designed or administered by vendors.

Why it matters: Adds a key legal-operational layer to candidate agency: employer responsibility does not disappear when applicant scoring is outsourced to AI vendors.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringhreeoctitle viiadverse impactvendor liabilityalgorithmic hiring

Note: Complements the existing EEOC/DOJ ADA AI guidance signal.

2023-06-14 SIG_2023_TURNITIN_FALSE_POSITIVE_RATES_BLOG

Turnitin publishes false-positive guidance for AI-writing detection and tells instructors not to treat scores as conclusions

evidence B confidence high global

Turnitin stated that its document-level false-positive rate was below 1% for documents with 20% or more AI writing, but sentence-level false positives were around 4%, and advised educators to use highlighted text as an area of interest to start a conversation rather than draw a conclusion.

Why it matters: Important nuance: even pro-detector vendor guidance pushes against hard-gate use. This supports coding AI detection as a weak signal, not a credential decision layer.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: turnitinai detectorfalse positiveacademic integritystudent assessmentprovenance

Note: Vendor evidence; useful but should be treated with vendor-bias caveat. Strong for chronology and stated limitations.

2023-06-20 SIG_2023_AXEL_SPRINGER_BILD_AI_JOBS_WARNING

Axel Springer/Bild job cuts become early media-sector AI-role-restructuring signal

evidence B/C confidence medium EUGermany

After Axel Springer announced cost-cutting at Bild and Welt, reporting and executive statements linked some future editorial role changes to AI-enabled workflows, though the company disputed simple AI-replacement framing.

Why it matters: Useful medium-confidence case for industry re-entry and signal preservation in journalism: AI changes role boundaries and portfolio value without clean displacement proof.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA4 network capital
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: mediajournalismlayoffsai strategyeditorial work

Note: Code as restructuring/role-boundary signal; avoid claiming direct replacement unless source-specific.

2023-06-22 SIG_2023_MATA_AVIANCA_SANCTIONS

Lawyers sanctioned after filing ChatGPT-generated fake cases

evidence A/B confidence high US

A federal judge sanctioned lawyers and their firm after a brief cited fictitious cases generated by ChatGPT in Mata v. Avianca.

Why it matters: Canonical professional-liability incident damaging professional trust and court process.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D06 lateral professional returnD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: lawchatgptfake casessanctionsprofessional liability

Note: Seed signal-preservation metric: sanctions, client notice, bar referral.

2023-07-05 SIG_2023_NYC_LL144

NYC Local Law 144 enforcement begins for automated employment decision tools

evidence A confidence high USNYC

NYC began enforcing AEDT rules requiring recent bias audit publication and candidate/employee notice before use of automated employment decision tools.

Why it matters: Creates audit/notice layer for AI-mediated hiring and promotion.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: aedtsbias auditnoticehiringpromotion

Note: Governance signal; does not prove audit effectiveness.

2023-07-07 SIG_2023_ROBODEBT_ROYAL_COMMISSION

Australia Robodebt Royal Commission reports on unlawful automated welfare debt scheme

evidence A confidence high Australia

The Royal Commission into the Robodebt Scheme presented its report after investigating Australia's unlawful automated welfare debt-recovery scheme.

Why it matters: Strong public-sector analogue for agency constraints: automated decisions can impose debt, reduce mobility and demonstrate why contestability and human oversight matter.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: automated decision makingwelfarepublic sectoraccountabilitycontestability

Note:

2023-07-10 SIG_2023_GPT_DETECTORS_NON_NATIVE_BIAS

Patterns paper finds GPT detectors misclassify non-native English writing as AI-generated

evidence A confidence high global

Liang et al. published a peer-reviewed Patterns article showing that GPT detectors frequently misclassify non-native English writing as AI-generated.

Why it matters: Critical assessment-integrity signal: provenance tools can directly harm credential agency if false positives fall unevenly on non-native writers and international students.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: educationai detectorfalse positivenon native englishbiasacademic integrityprovenance

Note: Strong A-level research signal; use as caution against naive AI-detector-based credential decisions.

2023-07-20 SIG_2023_OPENAI_AI_CLASSIFIER_RETIRED

OpenAI retires AI Text Classifier due to low accuracy

evidence A confidence high global

OpenAI updated its AI Text Classifier post to state that, as of July 20, 2023, the classifier was no longer available due to a low rate of accuracy.

Why it matters: Clean provenance failure signal: even the model provider withdrew a text-origin detector, reinforcing that education/workforce systems should not rely on detector output as a hard gate.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: educationai detectorprovenancefalse positivetext classifieracademic integrity

Note: Retirement date from OpenAI note; launch date was Jan. 31, 2023.

2023-07-21 SIG_2023_WHITE_HOUSE_AI_VOLUNTARY_WATERMARKING_COMMITMENTS

White House voluntary AI commitments include watermarking and AI-generated-content labeling

evidence A/B confidence high USglobal

Seven leading AI companies made voluntary White House commitments that included developing mechanisms such as watermarking to help users identify AI-generated content.

Why it matters: Policy anchor for provenance: platform commitments began to translate content authenticity into a mainstream AI-governance requirement.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry return
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: provenancewatermarkingai commitmentscontent labelingai safetyplatform governance

Note: Voluntary commitments, not binding law.

2023-08-15 SIG_2023_CHINA_GENAI_INTERIM_MEASURES

China's interim generative AI measures take effect

evidence A confidence high CN

Chinese authorities issued interim measures for generative AI services, effective August 15, 2023, with obligations around information security, personal information and content governance.

Why it matters: Country-operationalization signal for CN: generative AI governance shapes professional-tool access, vendor risk and cross-border comparability.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA5 credential portability
Residual gaps: China/Russia task-vector comparability
Tags: Chinagenerative airegulationdataplatforms

Note:

2023-08-16 SIG_2023_VANDERBILT_DISABLES_TURNITIN_AI_DETECTOR

Vanderbilt disables Turnitin AI detector over transparency and false-positive concerns

evidence B confidence high US

Vanderbilt announced that it was disabling Turnitin's AI detection tool, citing concerns about transparency, lack of disable options at launch, and false-positive risk.

Why it matters: Institutional rollback signal: universities are not merely adopting AI detection; some are rejecting it as too risky for student agency and credential integrity.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: educationturnitinai detectorfalse positiveacademic integritystudent rightsprovenance

Note: Useful as a named institutional decision, not a universal higher-education pattern.

2023-09-07 SIG_2023_UNESCO_GENAI_EDUCATION_GUIDANCE

UNESCO publishes first global guidance on generative AI in education and research

evidence A confidence high global

UNESCO published global guidance on generative AI in education and research, aimed at helping countries develop immediate actions, long-term policies and human capacity for a human-centered approach.

Why it matters: Global policy anchor for education-mediated career agency: AI literacy and assessment integrity become part of the credential-portability and skills-capital environment.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationunescogenairesearchpolicy guidanceai literacycredentialing

Note: Use as guidance/policy source, not as measured outcomes.

2023-09-11 SIG_2023_ITUTORGROUP_EEOC

EEOC settles first AI hiring-discrimination case against iTutorGroup

evidence A confidence high USCN-linked

iTutorGroup agreed to pay $365,000 after EEOC alleged its software rejected female applicants 55+ and male applicants 60+ for remote tutoring roles.

Why it matters: Clean example of algorithmic gating in access to professional work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: age discriminationremote workeducationeeoc

Note: High-confidence settlement; not prevalence estimate.

2023-09-14 SIG_2023_ONCLUSIVE_FRANCE_AI_LAYOFFS

Onclusive France layoffs cited as European media-monitoring AI displacement case

evidence C confidence medium low EUFrance

Reports described Onclusive's French subsidiary as planning to lay off more than 200 employees while shifting media-monitoring work toward AI-enabled processes.

Why it matters: Useful weak-to-medium signal for desk-research agent testing because it illustrates contested AI-displacement claims in non-US white-collar workflows.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: layoffsmedia monitoringai replacementFrancewhite collar work
Sources: primary 1

Note: Confidence lower because available English source is secondary; should be upgraded only with French primary union/company documents.

2023-09-20 SIG_2023_AUTHORS_GUILD_OPENAI_LAWSUIT

Authors Guild and prominent authors file class action against OpenAI over book training data

evidence A/B confidence high USglobal

The Authors Guild and 17 authors filed a class-action lawsuit against OpenAI alleging copyright infringement from use of their fiction works to train GPT models.

Why it matters: Adds a professional-signal preservation case for writers: authorship, corpus provenance, and training-data consent become part of career-capital protection.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrightauthorstraining dataopenaibookscreative laborprovenance

Note: Allegations unresolved; classify as litigation signal.

2023-09-26 SIG_2023_WGA_AI_CONTRACT

WGA contract establishes AI protections for writers

evidence A/B confidence high US

The 2023 WGA agreement established protections around AI-generated material, disclosure, credit, compensation and training-use disputes.

Why it matters: Professional group turns AI risk into contract language and collective agency.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A2 career identityA4 network capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: writersunioncreative workai protections

Note: Useful collective-agency and D08 signal-preservation precedent.

2023-10-30 SIG_2023_BIDEN_AI_EO_WORKERS

US Executive Order on AI includes worker-protection and labor-market provisions

evidence A/B confidence high US

The US executive order on AI directed federal actions on safe and trustworthy AI, including attention to civil rights, worker protections and labor-market impacts.

Why it matters: Federal recognition that AI affects workers, not only consumers or national security.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: executive orderworkerslabor marketai governance

Note: Version with 2025 revocation; not stable current rule.

2023-11-08 SIG_2023_SAG_AFTRA_DIGITAL_REPLICAS

SAG-AFTRA TV/Theatrical agreement includes digital-replica protections

evidence A confidence high US

SAG-AFTRA resolved its 2023 strike with terms including AI and digital-replica protections for performers.

Why it matters: Shows professional identity, likeness, consent and compensation becoming explicit bargaining objects under AI.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A2 career identityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricValidated individual return option value
Tags: performersdigital replicaunionconsentcompensation

Note: Signal preservation for creative-project markets.

2023-11-14 SIG_2023_UNITEDHEALTH_NHPREDICT_LAWSUIT

UnitedHealth sued over alleged AI-driven denial of post-acute care

evidence B confidence medium high US

A proposed class action alleged that UnitedHealth used an AI algorithm to systematically deny elderly patients extended care such as nursing-facility stays.

Why it matters: Professional workflow signal: AI can reshape clinicians' and case managers' discretion, creating institutional constraints around professional judgment.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: healthcareinsurancealgorithmic denialprofessional workflowcare management

Note: Allegations pending/contested; code as litigation signal.

2023-12-13 SIG_2023_HUMANA_NHPREDICT_LAWSUIT

Humana sued over alleged use of nH Predict algorithm in Medicare Advantage denials

evidence B/C confidence medium US

A lawsuit alleged Humana used the nH Predict algorithm to deny care in Medicare Advantage, echoing claims around algorithmic estimates overriding clinical judgment.

Why it matters: Relevant to agency because AI-driven administrative constraints may alter healthcare professional roles, liability and re-entry signal value.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA1 skills capital
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: healthcareinsurancealgorithmic denialMedicare Advantage

Note: Primary legal complaint should be pinned before litigation use.

2023-12-19 SIG_2023_RITEAID_FACIAL_RECOGNITION_FTC

FTC bans Rite Aid from using facial recognition for surveillance for five years

evidence A confidence high US

The FTC said Rite Aid failed to implement reasonable procedures and prevent consumer harm when it used facial recognition in hundreds of stores, and the settlement prohibited surveillance use for five years.

Why it matters: Shows concrete liability for automated surveillance systems deployed in frontline retail workflows, with direct implications for worker oversight, customer-facing staff decisions and institutional constraints.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: facial recognitionsurveillanceretailprivacyalgorithmic errorworkplace ai

Note: Code as surveillance/governance signal, not pure hiring case.

2023-12-27 SIG_2023_NYT_OPENAI_CASE

The New York Times sues OpenAI and Microsoft over use of journalism

evidence A/B confidence high USglobal

The New York Times sued OpenAI and Microsoft alleging unauthorized use of Times journalism to train and operate generative AI systems.

Why it matters: High-signal case for economic value of professional output and provenance under AI training regimes.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A2 career identityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: journalismcopyrighttraining dataopenaimicrosoft

Note: Litigation unresolved; provenance/value signal.

2023-12-27 SIG_2024_AMAZON_FRANCE_LOGISTIQUE_MONITORING_FINE

CNIL fines Amazon France Logistique €32M for excessive employee monitoring

evidence A confidence high EUFrance

France's CNIL fined Amazon France Logistique €32 million for an excessively intrusive system monitoring warehouse employee activity and performance.

Why it matters: Strong signal for automated worker monitoring as a structural constraint on agency inside large logistics workplaces.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD04 vertical returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: employee monitoringwarehousesurveillancealgorithmic managementgdpr

Note: Event date is decision date; public reporting followed in Jan 2024.

2024-01-08 SIG_2024_DUOLINGO_CONTRACTOR_CUTS

Duolingo cuts contractors while increasing AI-generated content workflows

evidence B confidence medium high USglobal

Duolingo confirmed it cut roughly 10% of its contractor workforce as it used generative AI to streamline content and translation workflows.

Why it matters: Directly relevant to employment-form vulnerability: contractors may be displaced before full-time staff.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: duolingocontractorstranslationedtechcontent

Note: Good D10 test case, but not return-panel evidence.

2024-01-18 SIG_2024_ASU_OPENAI_HIGHER_ED_PARTNERSHIP

Arizona State University becomes first higher-education institution to collaborate with OpenAI on ChatGPT Enterprise

evidence A/B confidence high US

Arizona State University announced a collaboration with OpenAI giving the ASU community access to ChatGPT Enterprise for teaching, learning and discovery, described by ASU as the first higher-education collaboration of its kind.

Why it matters: Positive adoption counterweight to ban/detector signals: AI becomes an institutionally sanctioned skill layer rather than only a cheating/provenance problem.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA5 credential portability
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationhigher edopenaichatgpt enterpriseai literacyinstitutional adoption

Note: Corporate partnership; use as adoption signal, not outcome evaluation.

2024-01-30 SIG_2024_SECOND_CIRCUIT_AI_FAKE_CASE_DISCIPLINE

Second Circuit refers lawyer for possible discipline over AI-invented citation

evidence B confidence medium high US

Reuters reported that another New York lawyer faced potential discipline after an AI chatbot invented a case citation in a court filing.

Why it matters: Adds second legal-sector professional-error signal after Mata v. Avianca, useful for mapping signal preservation and reputational penalties.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD04 vertical return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricVertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: legal aifake casesdisciplineprofessional errorcourt
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2024-02-14 SIG_2024_AIR_CANADA_CHATBOT

Air Canada held liable for misleading chatbot information

evidence A/B confidence high Canada

British Columbia tribunal found Air Canada liable after its chatbot gave a passenger incorrect information about bereavement fare refunds.

Why it matters: Shows organization-level responsibility for AI customer-service outputs.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: chatbotcustomer serviceliabilitymisinformation

Note: Professional workflow responsibility, not direct displacement.

2024-02-27 SIG_2024_AUTOMATORS_AI_FTC_BUSINESS_OPPORTUNITY

FTC action bans owners of Automators AI e-commerce money-making scheme

evidence A confidence high US

The FTC said owners of an AI-branded e-commerce scheme agreed to surrender millions in assets and face bans from selling business opportunities or coaching programs involving ecommerce stores.

Why it matters: Useful for employment-form exit: AI entrepreneurship/freelance opportunities can be marketed as mobility pathways but carry deception and income-risk constraints.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A2 career identityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form returnValidated individual return option value
Tags: ai business opportunityentrepreneurshipecommercedeceptive claimsfreelance

Note:

2024-02-28 SIG_2024_KLARNA_700_AGENT_EQUIVALENT

Klarna says AI assistant handles work equivalent to hundreds of support agents

evidence B/C confidence medium Swedenglobal

Klarna said its AI assistant handled two-thirds of customer-service chats and work equivalent to about 700 full-time agents; later reporting linked AI to shrinking headcount.

Why it matters: Strong service-work automation signal with contractor/outsourcing ambiguity.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: klarnacustomer supportchatbotautomation

Note: Corporate self-report; outsourcing status matters.

2024-03-01 SIG_2024_RU_SELF_EMPLOYED_ILLEGAL_EMPLOYMENT_COMMISSIONS

Russia starts interagency oversight commissions targeting disguised self-employment

evidence B confidence medium high RU

New Russian rules created interagency commission mechanisms to detect illegal employment and misuse of self-employed contractor status.

Why it matters: RU D10 signal: self-employment is increasingly treated as a compliance boundary rather than a purely flexible work form.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form returnPost-2022 Russian credential operation
Tags: self-employedNPD tax regimeillegal employmentmisclassificationemployment status

Note: Use as regulatory/enforcement signal. Primary official legal acts should be pinned in a later legal appendix.

2024-03-18 SIG_2024_SEC_AI_WASHING_DELPHIA_GLOBAL_PREDICTIONS

SEC settles first AI-washing cases with Delphia and Global Predictions

evidence A confidence high US

The SEC charged two investment advisers with making false and misleading statements about their purported use of AI; the firms settled and paid $400,000 in civil penalties.

Why it matters: High-quality signal for industry re-entry and professional-signal preservation: AI branding can distort market credibility and credential signals in financial advisory work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: financeai washinginvestment advisersprofessional servicesdisclosure

Note:

2024-03-18 SIG_2024_YOUTUBE_SYNTHETIC_CONTENT_DISCLOSURE_TOOL

YouTube requires creators to disclose realistic altered or synthetic content, including generative AI

evidence A/B confidence high global

YouTube introduced a Creator Studio tool requiring creators to disclose when realistic content that could be mistaken for a real person, place, scene or event was made with altered or synthetic media, including generative AI.

Why it matters: Platform-level provenance event: creators' career signals and audience trust increasingly depend on disclosure workflows, not just content quality.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: youtubesynthetic mediaai labelcreator disclosureprovenancedeepfakeplatform policy

Note: Disclosure only for realistic altered/synthetic content; not blanket AI disclosure.

2024-03-20 SIG_2024_COHEN_BARD_FAKE_CASES_NO_SANCTIONS

Michael Cohen episode shows court limits of AI-generated fake-citation sanctions

evidence B confidence medium high US

A federal judge declined to sanction Michael Cohen for mistakenly providing AI-generated fake citations, calling the episode embarrassing but not sanctionable on the facts.

Why it matters: Contrast case for legal AI professional-error taxonomy: not every hallucination leads to sanction; intent, role and verification duties matter.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD04 vertical return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricVertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: legal aifake casesprofessional errorsanctionsBard

Note:

2024-04-05 SIG_2024_OFCCP_AI_SELECTION_FAQ

OFCCP flags federal-contractor AI selection procedures for validation scrutiny

evidence A confidence high US

OFCCP joined federal agencies in AI guidance and noted that it would analyze federal contractors' AI-based selection procedures under validation and equal-opportunity requirements.

Why it matters: Directly useful for testing applicant-scoring signals and mapping hiring AI to credential portability and institutional constraints.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringselection proceduresfederal contractorsvalidationadverse impact
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2024-04-05 SIG_2024_META_AI_CONTENT_LABELING_POLICY

Meta shifts from removing narrow manipulated media to labeling broader AI-generated content

evidence A/B confidence high global

Meta announced that it would start labeling organic AI-generated content in May 2024 and stop removing content solely under its manipulated-video policy in July, moving toward labeling and context.

Why it matters: Provenance governance signal: platforms are operationalizing AI disclosure through labels, but those labels can also affect creator reputation and signal preservation.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: metaai labelmade with aicontent authenticityprovenanceplatform policyelections

Note: Pair with July 2024 label adjustment if tracking false-positive effects.

2024-04-09 SIG_2024_WORKDAY_MOBLEY

Mobley v. Workday becomes major AI hiring-discrimination test case

evidence A/B confidence medium US

EEOC amicus argued Workday could be subject to anti-discrimination law in suit alleging AI screening discriminated by race, age and disability.

Why it matters: Tests accountability of HR software vendors when automated tools screen applicants before human review.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: workdayeeoctitle viiadeaadaalgorithmic bias

Note: Unresolved litigation; allegations not findings.

2024-04-09 SIG_2024_TURNITIN_ONE_YEAR_200M_PAPERS

Turnitin says its AI detector reviewed over 200 million papers in first year, flagging 22 million with substantial AI-writing signal

evidence B/C confidence medium high global

On the first anniversary of its detector, Turnitin said the tool had reviewed over 200 million papers since April 2023; over 22 million had at least 20% AI-written content and over 6 million had at least 80% AI-written content, according to Turnitin's model outputs.

Why it matters: Balances the rollback narrative: institutional adoption did not vanish after Vanderbilt/OpenAI; detector usage scaled massively while reliability and fairness concerns persisted.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: turnitinai detectoradoptionacademic integrityeducationprovenance

Note: Counts are detector outputs, not verified misconduct. Use as adoption/load signal, not ground truth about cheating prevalence.

2024-05-09 SIG_2024_TIKTOK_C2PA_AUTO_LABELING

TikTok begins automatically labeling AI-generated content with C2PA Content Credentials from other platforms

evidence A/B confidence high global

TikTok announced it would start automatically labeling AI-generated content uploaded from certain other platforms by using C2PA Content Credentials, describing itself as the first video-sharing platform to implement the technology this way.

Why it matters: Important provenance adoption signal for creator labor: standardized metadata starts to cross platform boundaries, shaping how AI-made work is identified and valued.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: tiktokc2pacontent credentialsai labelprovenancecreator economyplatform policy

Note: Platform adoption event; coverage depends on upstream tools embedding credentials.

2024-05-14 SIG_2024_SYNTHID_TEXT_VIDEO_WATERMARKING

Google DeepMind extends SynthID watermarking to AI-generated text and video

evidence A confidence high global

Google DeepMind announced watermarking methods for AI-generated text and video and described bringing SynthID to key Google products.

Why it matters: Technical provenance signal: watermarking moves beyond images into text/video, directly relevant to education, hiring portfolios, and creator-market authenticity.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: synthidwatermarkingtextvideoprovenancegoogle deepmindcontent authenticity

Note: Technical release; real-world reliability and adversarial robustness should be tracked separately.

2024-05-17 SIG_2024_COLORADO_AI_ACT

Colorado AI Act covers high-risk AI in employment decisions

evidence A confidence high USColorado

Colorado enacted SB24-205 requiring reasonable care by developers/deployers of high-risk AI systems including consequential employment decisions.

Why it matters: Shows state-level movement from audit notice toward broader AI employment governance.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: coloradoalgorithmic discriminationemploymenthigh risk ai

Note: Track amendments/effective-date changes separately.

2024-05-20 SIG_2024_SCARLETT_JOHANSSON_OPENAI_SKY_VOICE

Scarlett Johansson accuses OpenAI's Sky voice of sounding eerily similar; OpenAI pauses the voice

evidence B confidence high USglobal

Scarlett Johansson said OpenAI's Sky voice sounded eerily similar to hers after she had declined an invitation to voice the system; OpenAI paused use of Sky and denied intentional imitation.

Why it matters: High-signal likeness/provenance event: professional identity itself becomes reproducible, making signal ownership and consent central to creative-labor agency.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: voicelikenessopenaiskydigital replicacelebrityprovenancecreative labor

Note: Contested allegation; note OpenAI denial and voice pause.

2024-06-15 SIG_2024_LAUSD_ED_CHATBOT_ALLHERE_FAILURE

LAUSD's Ed chatbot becomes major education-AI procurement failure after AllHere collapse

evidence B confidence medium high US

LAUSD's AI chatbot project with AllHere, marketed as 'Ed', was effectively derailed after AllHere leadership turmoil, furloughs and later fraud charges against the founder; reports describe the district losing millions and shutting down the chatbot soon after launch.

Why it matters: High-value education signal: institutional AI adoption can create career/education agency risks through procurement failure, vendor fragility and student-data governance gaps.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationedtechchatbotprocurementlausdallherestudent supportgovernance failure

Note: Event date approximates mid-2024 collapse/CEO removal; founder arrest occurred in Nov. 2024. Keep as medium_high because some project-timeline details are reconstructed from reporting.

2024-06-24 SIG_2024_SUNO_UDIO_RECORD_LABEL_LAWSUITS

Major record labels sue Suno and Udio over AI music training data

evidence A/B confidence high USglobal

Major record labels including Sony, Universal and Warner sued Suno and Udio, alleging mass copyright infringement through use of sound recordings to train AI music-generation systems.

Why it matters: Strong creative-labor signal: AI provenance disputes expand from text/images into sound recordings, affecting music-industry re-entry and signal preservation for artists.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: musiccopyrighttraining datasunoudioriaacreative laborprovenance

Note: Litigation signal; allegations remain contested.

2024-06-26 SIG_2024_READING_AI_EXAM_INFILTRATION_STUDY

University of Reading blind test finds AI exam submissions mostly undetected and often higher-scoring

evidence A confidence high UK

Scarfe et al. published a PLOS ONE blind real-world test injecting AI-written submissions into a university examination system. The university reported that experienced markers struggled to spot the AI submissions; summaries of the study report that 94% went undetected and AI answers often scored higher than real student answers.

Why it matters: Shifts the story from automated detectors to human judgment: instructors also struggle to preserve authorship provenance in remote/open digital assessment settings.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: educationassessmentai cheatinghuman detectiononline examprovenance

Note: Not an AI-detector evaluation only; evaluates exam-system infiltration and human-marker detection. Complements detector false-positive cases with false-negative/undetected-use evidence.

2024-07-08 SIG_2024_TURNITIN_UNDER_20_SCORE_SUPPRESSION

Turnitin suppresses AI-writing scores below 20% to reduce false-positive misinterpretation

evidence B confidence high global

Turnitin's AI Writing Report guide says scores below 20% are no longer surfaced; instead, an asterisk is shown because percentages between 0 and 19 have a higher incidence of false positives. The guide notes that reports generated before July 8, 2024 may still show numerical scores below 20%.

Why it matters: This is a concrete product-level retreat from precise detector scoring: the vendor moved from exposing low percentages to suppressing them because of misinterpretation and false-positive risk.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: turnitinai detectorthresholdfalse positiveacademic integrityprovenance
Sources: primary 1

Note: Date inferred from Turnitin guide wording that pre-July-8-2024 reports may still show sub-20 scores. Treat as product-policy change, not independent validation.

2024-07-10 SIG_2024_INTUIT_AI_SHIFT_LAYOFFS

Intuit cuts about 1,800 employees while shifting resources toward AI

evidence A/B confidence high USCanadaglobal

Intuit announced roughly 1,800 role eliminations while focusing on AI-powered tax and financial products, framing the move as strategic reallocation.

Why it matters: Distinguishes layoffs, skill-mix change and AI-capability hiring within one company.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: intuittaxaccountingskill mixai strategy

Note: Skill-mix reallocation; avoid one-for-one AI replacement claim.

2024-07-15 SIG_2024_YANDEX_NEBIUS_SPLIT

Yandex N.V. completes split from Russian assets and later becomes Nebius Group

evidence A/B confidence high RUEUGlobal

Yandex N.V. finalized the sale of Russian assets in July 2024; the Dutch parent was later renamed Nebius Group, retaining AI-focused international businesses.

Why it matters: High-signal sector/geographic mobility event for Russian tech talent and industry re-entry signal preservation.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD02 geographic returnD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA4 network capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricPost-2022 Russian credential operation
Tags: YandexNebiusRussia exitAI infrastructuretalent mobility

Note: Separate corporate transaction (A/B) from staff-count claims (B/C depending on source).

2024-07-25 SIG_2024_PROP22_CA_SUPREME_COURT

California Supreme Court upholds Prop 22 contractor classification for app-based drivers

evidence A confidence high US

The California Supreme Court upheld Proposition 22, preserving app-based driver classification as independent contractors under the statute.

Why it matters: High-signal legal boundary for D10: contractor status is structurally preserved, shaping workers’ ability to exit/return between wage work and platform work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D10 employment-form returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: platform workgig workprop22contractor statusemployment form return

Note: Treat as classification/rights signal, not as evidence of worker preference.

2024-07-26 SIG_2024_SAG_AFTRA_VIDEO_GAME_STRIKE

SAG-AFTRA strikes video game companies over AI protections

evidence A/B confidence high USglobal games industry

SAG-AFTRA called a strike against video game companies over AI protections, especially voice and performance capture rights; later AP reported a contract ending the strike with AI protections.

Why it matters: Sector-specific re-entry and signal-preservation risk in project-based creative labor.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A2 career identityA4 network capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: video gamesvoice actorsmotion captureai protections

Note: Project-based labor makes it useful for D10 as well as D08.

2024-07-29 SIG_2024_ABA_FORMAL_OPINION_512

ABA Formal Opinion 512 sets lawyer duties for generative AI use

evidence B confidence medium high US

ABA Formal Opinion 512 addressed lawyers' duties around generative AI, including competence, confidentiality, communication, supervision, candor and fees.

Why it matters: Important professional-signal preservation event: courts and bars are turning AI use into explicit competence/supervision criteria.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD04 vertical return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricVertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: legal aiprofessional ethicsconfidentialitysupervisioncompetence

Note: Official ABA opinion URL should be pinned if available; current source is ABA Business Law summary.

2024-07-31 SIG_2024_USCO_DIGITAL_REPLICAS_REPORT

US Copyright Office releases AI report Part 1 on digital replicas and recommends federal protection

evidence A confidence high US

The U.S. Copyright Office released Part 1 of its Copyright and Artificial Intelligence report on digital replicas, addressing voice/visual likeness harms and recommending federal digital-replica legislation.

Why it matters: Policy anchor for provenance and career signal preservation: voice/likeness become explicit protected career assets rather than merely personal traits.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrightdigital replicaslikenessvoicepolicy reportprovenancecreative labor

Note: Use published date July 31, 2024 from Copyright Office NewsNet.

2024-08-01 SIG_2024_EU_AI_ACT_EMPLOYMENT

EU AI Act classifies employment and worker-management AI as high-risk

evidence A confidence high EU

The EU AI Act entered into force; employment, recruitment, selection, task allocation, monitoring and performance evaluation are among high-risk use cases.

Why it matters: Directly maps AI governance onto hiring, promotion, termination and access to self-employment.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD04 vertical returnD05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: eu ai actemploymentworker managementself employment

Note: Implementation timing must be versioned.

2024-08-04 SIG_2024_OPENAI_TEXT_WATERMARK_NONDEPLOYMENT_REPORT

Reporting says OpenAI held back ChatGPT text watermarking despite internal readiness concerns

evidence B/C confidence medium global

The Verge reported that OpenAI had developed a ChatGPT text-watermarking method and detection tool but had not deployed it, citing concerns including user impact and the fragility of text watermarking compared with alternatives such as metadata.

Why it matters: Useful boundary case: even provenance-preserving technical methods can stall when product incentives, user behavior and robustness concerns collide.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A4 signal preservationA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: openaiwatermarkingtext provenanceacademic integrityuser adoptionprovenance
Sources: secondary 1

Note: Single-source reporting; code as medium confidence and not as confirmed product policy. Complements Sadasivan/evasion concerns and C2PA/SynthID adoption signals.

2024-09-12 SIG_2024_NO_FAKES_ACT_INTRODUCED

NO FAKES Act introduced to create federal voice and likeness protections against AI replicas

evidence A/B confidence high US

The NO FAKES Act was introduced to protect individuals' voice and visual likeness from unauthorized computer-generated recreations using generative AI and related technologies.

Why it matters: Legislative signal that signal preservation extends beyond copyright into identity rights, especially for actors, musicians, creators and public-facing professionals.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: no fakes actvoicelikenessdigital replicacreative laborprovenanceright of publicity

Note: Use as introduced-bill signal, not enacted law.

2024-09-16 SIG_2024_AMAZON_IC_MANAGER_RATIO_AND_RTO

Amazon requires 15% increase in IC-to-manager ratio and announces five-day RTO

evidence A confidence high USGlobal

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told staff each s-team organization should increase the ratio of individual contributors to managers by at least 15% by end-Q1 2025 and return to the office five days a week from January 2025.

Why it matters: Strong vertical-return / delayering and location-anchor signal; RTO also constrains geographic/remote exit options.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD09 employment-form exitD01 geographic exit
Agency: A2 career identityA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: AmazonIC manager ratiodelayeringRTOvertical return

Note: Official memo; code as policy intent, not realized individual outcomes.

2024-09-16 SIG_2024_CEDEFOP_ESI_2024_RELEASE

Cedefop publishes European Skills Index 2024 technical release

evidence B confidence high EU

Cedefop’s 2024 European Skills Index release measures skills-system performance across EU-27+4, using a distance-to-ideal composite approach.

Why it matters: Useful macro-context for A6/A1, especially country-level skills activation/matching around mobility constraints.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: CedefopESIskills matchingskills activationEU

Note: Country/system-level only; do not use as individual agency score.

2024-09-18 SIG_2024_TEXAS_PIECES_HEALTHCARE_AI_SETTLEMENT

Texas AG settles first-of-its-kind healthcare generative AI accuracy investigation

evidence A confidence high USTexas

Texas AG Ken Paxton announced a settlement with Pieces Technologies over allegations of false or misleading claims about the accuracy and safety of healthcare AI products.

Why it matters: High-quality healthcare professional-workflow signal: AI accuracy claims can affect doctors, nurses, documentation work and institutional liability.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: healthcaregenerative aiclinical notesaccuracy claimsstate ag
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2024-09-23 SIG_2024_CALIFORNIA_PHONE_FREE_SCHOOLS_ACT

California Phone-Free Schools Act requires districts to limit smartphones in schools

evidence A confidence high US

Governor Newsom signed AB 3216 (Phone-Free Schools Act) requiring every California school district, charter school, and county office of education to develop a policy limiting or prohibiting smartphone use during school hours by July 2026.

Why it matters: Educational analog of the hiring-side imitation loop pushback: when AI use makes traditional homework signal collapse, institutions move to physically restrict the AI surface area during assessment. Direct school parallel to the resume-personalization rejection trend.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions:
Agency: A4 signal preservationA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps:
Tags: educationschoolphone banai cheatingprovenancestate lawimitation loop pushback

Note: Bill cites mental-health concerns as primary rationale; AI/cheating concerns secondary in legal text but central in implementation discourse.

2024-09-25 SIG_2024_CN_EMPLOYMENT_PRIORITY_GUIDELINES

China issues high-quality full-employment guidelines referencing flexible employment protections

evidence A confidence high CN

China’s CPC Central Committee and State Council issued guidelines to promote high-quality and full employment, including improved support for flexible employment.

Why it matters: CN D10/A6 anchor: state policy explicitly connects flexible employment with social-protection and high-quality employment goals.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: China/Russia task-vector comparabilityIndividual panel for employment-form return
Tags: Chinaemployment priorityflexible employmentsocial protection

Note: Policy signal; not evidence of individual outcomes.

2024-10-08 SIG_2024_ADOBE_CONTENT_AUTHENTICITY_WEB_APP

Adobe announces Content Authenticity web app and Chrome extension for Content Credentials

evidence B confidence high global

Adobe announced Adobe Content Authenticity, including a Chrome extension available immediately and a free public beta web app planned for Q1 2025 to help creators attach and inspect Content Credentials.

Why it matters: Creator-infrastructure signal: provenance becomes something individual professionals can attach to portfolios and work products, not only a platform-side label.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: adobecontent credentialsc2pacreator toolsprovenancechrome extensioncontent authenticity

Note: Product/tooling event, not broad adoption evidence.

2024-10-11 SIG_2024_SEC_RIMAR_AI_WASHING

SEC charges Rimar entities over misleading AI-trading claims

evidence A confidence high US

The SEC charged Rimar Capital entities and executives over false and misleading statements about purported AI-enabled trading for client accounts and related misrepresentations.

Why it matters: Adds a second finance-domain signal for coding AI hype as a professional-market credential distortion, not just a consumer protection issue.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: financeai washingautomated tradingprofessional services
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2024-10-14 SIG_2024_EU_PLATFORM_WORK_DIRECTIVE

EU Council adopts Platform Work Directive with algorithmic-management safeguards

evidence A confidence high EU

The Council adopted rules for platform work that increase algorithmic transparency, require human monitoring of automated systems and give workers the right to contest automated decisions.

Why it matters: Directly relevant to employment-form exit/return because platform work is a major employee↔gig transition path and the directive creates rights around algorithmic management.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form returnIntegrated agency validation
Tags: platform workgig workalgorithmic managementworker rightscontestability

Note:

2024-10-16 SIG_2024_FRANCE_CNAF_RISK_SCORING_CHALLENGE

French NGOs challenge CNAF welfare risk-scoring algorithm

evidence B confidence medium EUFrance

Civil-society groups challenged the French CNAF risk-scoring algorithm used to select welfare recipients for investigation, alleging discriminatory targeting of marginalized groups.

Why it matters: Adjacent but valuable: public algorithms can affect workers' financial stability, job-search capacity and trust in institutional systems.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: welfarerisk scoringFrancediscriminationpublic sector

Note:

2024-10-16 SIG_2024_DOL_AI_WORKER_WELLBEING_BEST_PRACTICES

US Department of Labor releases AI and worker well-being best-practices roadmap

evidence A confidence high US

The US Department of Labor released AI Best Practices for developers and employers, building on AI and Worker Well-being principles under the AI Executive Order.

Why it matters: Good normative benchmark for agency parameters, especially transparency, worker input, human oversight and retraining around workplace AI.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA3 adaptability and self-efficacyA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: worker wellbeingai governancetransparencyhuman oversightreskilling
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2024-10-17 SIG_2024_SENATE_PSI_MEDICARE_ADVANTAGE_PRIOR_AUTH

US Senate staff report flags Medicare Advantage denials amid automated prior authorization

evidence A/B confidence high US

A Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations majority staff report found prior-authorization denials for post-acute care rose at major Medicare Advantage insurers as automated processes were implemented.

Why it matters: Useful system-level signal for professional-agency constraints and workflow automation in healthcare administration.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: healthcareprior authorizationautomationoversightinsurance
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2024-10-31 SIG_2024_RESUMEBUILDER_AI_HIRING_70PCT

ResumeBuilder survey: 51% of companies use AI in hiring, projected 70% by end-2025

evidence B confidence medium US

Industry survey of 948 US business leaders found 51% of companies were using AI in hiring (Oct 2024), with 68-70% projected by end-2025. 82% used AI to screen resumes, 64% for assessments, 23% for interviews. 21% allow AI to auto-reject candidates at all stages without human review.

Why it matters: Establishes the employer-side scale of the imitation loop: AI is used not as marginal aid but as primary filter for the majority of structured hiring funnels. Necessary baseline for any pushback narrative.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A4 signal preservationA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps:
Tags: hiringhrai screeningindustry surveyatsimitation loop

Note: Industry self-report via Pollfish; sample 948 leaders at companies >21 employees. Selection bias toward AI-aware respondents likely.

2024-11-20 SIG_2024_SAFERENT_ALGORITHMIC_SCREENING_SETTLEMENT

SafeRent settlement restricts algorithmic tenant scoring for voucher applicants

evidence B confidence medium high US

SafeRent agreed to change its screening practices and pay a multimillion-dollar settlement after allegations that its scoring system discriminated against Black and Hispanic rental applicants and voucher users.

Why it matters: Not an employment case, but useful control signal for opaque scoring, contestability and portability of status across essential-access systems that affect workers' geographic and job mobility.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD02 geographic return
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: algorithmic scoringscreeningdiscriminationhousingessential services

Note: Use as adjacent-domain scoring benchmark; do not over-map to HR.

2024-11-26 SIG_2024_EVOLV_FTC_AI_WEAPONS_DETECTION

FTC acts against Evolv over unsupported AI weapons-detection claims

evidence A confidence high US

The FTC proposed action against Evolv Technologies over allegedly deceptive claims about its AI-powered weapons-detection systems, including cancellation rights for certain K-12 school customers.

Why it matters: Good signal for professional procurement and safety workflows: claimed AI capability can affect security staffing, institutional trust and worker responsibility boundaries.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA1 skills capital
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: securityschoolsai claimssafetyprofessional liability

Note:

2024-12-01 SIG_2024_EU_PWD_ENTRY_INTO_FORCE

EU Platform Work Directive enters into force with 2026 transposition deadline

evidence A confidence high EU

Directive (EU) 2024/2831 entered into force; member states must transpose it by 2 December 2026.

Why it matters: Creates a legal clock for employment-form return/exit in platform work and algorithmic-management governance.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D10 employment-form returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: platform workalgorithmic managementemployment statusworker rights

Note: Duplicate-adjacent to v0.2 Council-adoption signal, but this is a separate implementation-clock event.

2024-12-10 SIG_2024_OECD_PIAAC_CYCLE2_RELEASE

OECD releases PIAAC Cycle 2 Round 1 adult-skills results

evidence A confidence high OECDGlobal

OECD released new Survey of Adult Skills results on 10 December 2024; the Round 1 database covers 31 countries with data collected in 2022–2023.

Why it matters: Baseline A1 skills-capital layer; also highlights CN/RU comparability gaps where coverage is absent.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capital
Residual gaps: China/Russia task-vector comparabilityIntegrated agency validation
Tags: PIAACadult skillsliteracynumeracyproblem solving

Note: Data-release anchor; not an event of harm/displacement.

2024-12-15 SIG_2024_UK_AI_CHEATING_CRISIS_FALSE_ACCUSATIONS

Guardian investigation documents AI-cheating cases and false-accusation anxiety in UK universities

evidence B confidence medium high UK

The Guardian reported on a UK university AI-cheating crisis in which some students admitted using AI, while others described stressful false-accusation or low-evidence academic-integrity hearings. The report also referenced evidence that human and automated detection struggle with AI-authored submissions.

Why it matters: Provides qualitative harm layer: provenance collapse creates both cheating and suspicion harms, and detector/marker uncertainty changes student behavior even for honest students.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationai detectorfalse accusationacademic integritystudent harmprovenance
Sources: secondary 1

Note: Investigation, not official dataset. Use for lived-experience and institutional-process stress-test, not prevalence estimate.

2024-12-18 SIG_2024_RYTR_FTC_FAKE_REVIEWS

FTC final order targets Rytr AI review-generation service

evidence A confidence high US

The FTC approved a final order against Rytr over an AI testimonial and review service that allegedly enabled false and deceptive online reviews.

Why it matters: Reputation systems are a core signal layer for freelancers, creators, professionals and platforms; synthetic reviews affect market access and return-option value.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form returnD08 industry return
Agency: A4 network capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricValidated individual return option value
Tags: ai contentfake reviewsreputationplatform workconsumer protection

Note:

2024-12-19 SIG_2024_GOOGLE_MANAGERIAL_ROLE_CUTS

Google cuts about 10% of manager/director/VP roles, with some converted to IC roles

evidence B confidence medium high USGlobal

Business Insider reported Sundar Pichai told staff Google had cut 10% of manager, director and VP roles as part of an efficiency drive; some roles were converted to IC roles.

Why it matters: High-signal D04 proxy: track-switching and hierarchy flattening are occurring at scale, but worker-level stigma/equivalence remains unmeasured.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD03 vertical exit
Agency: A2 career identityA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: Googledelayeringmanager to ICefficiencyvertical return

Note: Internal all-hands reporting; classify B, not A.

2025-01-02 SIG_2025_ATT_FIVE_DAY_RTO

AT&T begins five-day return-to-office mandate in January 2025

evidence C confidence medium US

AT&T required many employees to return to offices five days a week from January 2025, concentrating workers in core office hubs.

Why it matters: Soft location-anchor signal for geographic exit and employment-form exit: RTO policies can trigger mobility decisions.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: AT&TRTOremote workoffice hubs

Note: C-level evidence; company statement and worker-level attrition would improve confidence.

2025-01-21 SIG_2025_STRIPE_300_CUTS_STILL_HIRING

Stripe cuts 300 roles while stating hiring plan remains on track

evidence B confidence medium high USGlobal

Stripe cut around 300 employees, mostly in product, engineering and operations, while saying it still planned to reach about 10,000 employees by year-end.

Why it matters: Useful reallocation signal: layoffs and hiring can coexist, complicating simple AI-displacement coding.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: Stripelayoffshiringengineeringoperations

Note: Not explicitly AI-driven; keep confidence medium-high for event, low for AI attribution.

2025-01-29 SIG_2025_USCO_COPYRIGHTABILITY_REPORT

US Copyright Office AI report Part 2 says human authorship remains central to copyrightability

evidence A confidence high US

The U.S. Copyright Office released Part 2 of its Copyright and Artificial Intelligence report on copyrightability, affirming that existing principles require human authorship while allowing protection for sufficiently human creative contributions involving AI assistance.

Why it matters: Directly relevant to career-signal preservation: AI-assisted creative outputs may or may not protect the worker's portfolio depending on human contribution.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrightcopyrightabilityhuman authorshipai outputscreative laborprovenance

Note: Do not oversimplify as 'AI art never protected'; the report preserves human-authorship pathways.

2025-01-31 SIG_2025_DELL_FIVE_DAY_RTO

Dell retires hybrid policy and orders near-office staff back five days a week

evidence B/C confidence medium high USGlobal

Dell CEO Michael Dell told hybrid and remote employees near an office to work onsite five days a week starting 3 March 2025, retiring the hybrid policy.

Why it matters: RTO signal: reduces location flexibility and can push exit/return decisions around geography and employment form.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: DellRTOremote workgeographic exitemployment form exit

Note: Corporate-policy signal; worker-experience effects need separate data.

2025-02-02 SIG_2025_POSITIVE_TECH_QUIET_RESTRUCTURING

Positive Technologies reports show quiet restructuring without confirmed AI causality

evidence B/C confidence medium low RU

CNews and employee/union-linked reports described layoffs at Positive Technologies, including a first wave around 150-300 people and possible total reductions around 500, while the company framed the process as internal transformation and profitability discipline.

Why it matters: Shows the visibility problem around Russian IT reductions: not every workforce cut appears as formal redundancy, even in high-demand cybersecurity.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: positive technologiescybersecurityquiet layoffsrussia itrestructuring

Note: Not an AI-causality event. Keep as quiet-restructuring / measurement-visibility signal.

2025-02-05 SIG_2025_WORKDAY_AI_INVESTMENT_LAYOFFS

Workday cuts 1,750 jobs while prioritizing AI and platform investment

evidence A/B confidence high USGlobal

Workday announced about 1,750 layoffs, around 8.5% of its workforce, while saying it would prioritize investments in AI and platform development.

Why it matters: Enterprise-workflow signal: labor-market restructuring is tied to AI investment priorities, but not necessarily one-for-one AI replacement.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationVertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: WorkdaylayoffsAI investmentplatformenterprise software

Note: Code as AI-era restructuring, not direct automation proof.

2025-02-10 SIG_2025_ANTHROPIC_ECONOMIC_INDEX_LAUNCH

Anthropic launches Economic Index mapping Claude use to occupations and tasks

evidence A/B confidence high Global

Anthropic launched the Economic Index to study AI’s effects on labor markets by mapping Claude interactions to occupational/task categories.

Why it matters: Strong measurement signal for AI exposure/use; useful for stress-testing A1/A6 but not a worker outcome panel.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: Anthropic Economic IndexO*NETAI usagetask mapping

Note: Platform-owned usage data; valuable but not representative of all labor-market activity.

2025-02-11 SIG_2025_DONOTPAY_FTC_AI_LAWYER_ORDER

FTC finalizes order against DoNotPay over deceptive AI-lawyer claims

evidence A confidence high US

The FTC finalized an order requiring DoNotPay to stop making deceptive AI-lawyer claims, provide notice to past subscribers and pay monetary relief.

Why it matters: Direct professional-agency signal: AI marketed as substituting for legal expertise triggered regulator action around competence, evidence and substitution claims.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: legal aiprofessional servicesconsumer protectiondeceptive claimsautomation

Note:

2025-02-11 SIG_2025_THOMSON_REUTERS_ROSS_AI_COPYRIGHT_RULING

Thomson Reuters wins key AI copyright fair-use ruling against ROSS Intelligence

evidence A confidence high US

A Delaware federal judge held on summary judgment that ROSS Intelligence infringed Thomson Reuters' copyrights in Westlaw headnotes used for an AI-powered legal research competitor and rejected fair use as a matter of law.

Why it matters: Major professional-domain provenance signal: curated professional knowledge assets can retain protected value against AI training/reuse in direct competitive settings.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrightfair uselegal aitraining datawestlawross intelligenceprovenance

Note: Strong A-level court ruling; legal context is professional/legal research, not all AI training.

2025-02-13 SIG_2025_JPMORGAN_FIVE_DAY_RTO_BACKLASH

JPMorgan five-day RTO mandate triggers employee petition and union inquiries

evidence B confidence medium high US

Reuters reported Jamie Dimon defended JPMorgan’s five-day RTO policy amid employee complaints, petitions and union-formation inquiries.

Why it matters: RTO/backlash signal: location anchoring interacts with exit capacity, employee voice and labor-market agency.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: JPMorganRTOpetitionunion inquirieslocation anchor

Note: Use as organizational/employee-response signal, not direct attrition data.

2025-02-20 SIG_2025_CN_NEW_FLEXIBLE_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT

Jinan University and Zhaopin report growth in China new flexible employment postings and applicants

evidence B confidence medium high CN

A Jinan University/Zhaopin report showed flexible-employment job postings rising from 8.4% in 2019 to 15.2% in 2024 and jobseeker share reaching 36.4% in 2024.

Why it matters: Useful CN D10 proxy where individual panel data are unavailable: demand and applicant-share signals reveal movement into flexible work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: China/Russia task-vector comparabilityIndividual panel for employment-form return
Tags: Chinaflexible employmentZhaopinJinan Universitygig work

Note: Use as labor-market signal; not a panel and not directly comparable to O*NET/PIAAC.

2025-02-27 SIG_2025_SALESFORCE_ENGINEERING_HIRING_FREEZE_AI

Salesforce CEO says AI productivity means no new software engineers in 2025

evidence C confidence medium USGlobal

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said the company would not hire more software engineers in 2025 after AI coding tools reportedly increased productivity.

Why it matters: Soft but useful D04/D06 signal: AI changes new-hire gates and career-entry opportunities, but statement requires cautious coding.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: SalesforceAgentforceengineeringhiring freezeAI productivity

Note: Corporate statement; verify against actual job postings before using as hard hiring data.

2025-03-04 SIG_2025_TURNITIN_CLARITY_PROCESS_PROVENANCE

Turnitin introduces Clarity, shifting from output-only detection toward writing-process provenance

evidence B/C confidence medium high global

Turnitin announced Clarity, a composition/workflow product giving educators visibility into writing-process evolution and approved AI use. Axios described it as a canvas for students to show their work; Turnitin later positioned it as bringing transparency and responsible AI to the writing process.

Why it matters: Marks a second-order response to detector failure: rather than infer origin from final text alone, institutions move toward process evidence, version history and controlled AI-assistance environments.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA4 signal preservationA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: turnitinclarityprocess provenanceversion historyai literacyacademic integrity

Note: Vendor product signal; use as institutional response category, not proof of efficacy.

2025-03-14 SIG_2025_CN_AI_LABELING_MEASURES_ISSUED

Chinese regulators issue AI-generated synthetic content labeling measures

evidence A confidence high CN

CAC and other Chinese regulators issued measures requiring explicit and implicit labeling of AI-generated/synthetic content, effective 1 September 2025.

Why it matters: AI-governance signal affecting professional signal preservation: content provenance becomes a regulated marker in digital work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricChina/Russia task-vector comparability
Tags: ChinaAI labelingCACsynthetic contentAI governance

Note: Keep a separate event for the 2025-09-01 effective date if timeline testing needs implementation clocks.

2025-03-24 SIG_2025_VIRGINIA_HIGH_RISK_AI_BILL_VETO

Virginia governor vetoes high-risk AI bill that would have covered employment consequential decisions

evidence A/B confidence high US

Virginia's governor vetoed HB2094, a high-risk AI bill that had passed the legislature and would have required safeguards for AI systems used in consequential decisions including employment.

Why it matters: Negative policy signal: state-level employment-AI safeguards can fail politically even after legislative passage, affecting the institutional-constraints layer for applicant agency.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: employment aistate lawvetohigh risk aiconsequential decisionsalgorithmic discrimination

Note: Policy-failure event; useful for regulation-diffusion analysis.

2025-03-25 SIG_2025_OUTRUSH_WAVE4_RUSSIAN_EMIGRANT_RETURN

OutRush Wave 4 reports roughly 8% return among surveyed post-2022 Russian emigrants

evidence A/B confidence high RUGlobal

OutRush Wave 4, based on July–November 2024 survey data and nearly 8,600 respondents, reported roughly 8% return between 2023 and 2024 and substantial secondary migration.

Why it matters: Best transparent event-level anchor for Russia post-2022 geographic return; useful for testing D02 but selection-biased.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D02 geographic returnD01 geographic exit
Agency: A4 network capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Post-2022 Russian credential operation
Tags: OutRushRussian emigrationreturn migrationbrain drain

Note: Selection bias: likely over-represents politically active/high-skill emigrants. Still stronger than official press claims.

2025-03-28 SIG_2025_RESUME_NOW_AI_APPLICANT_LOOP_REPORT

55% of hiring managers report candidates use AI most for resumes; 90% see spike in spam applications

evidence B confidence medium US

Resume Now survey of 925 US HR workers: 55% report candidates use AI most for resumes/cover letters; 57% noticed uptick in AI-assisted submissions; 90% report increase in low-effort/spam applications driven by AI; 79% believe companies should implement formal guidelines on AI-assisted job applications.

Why it matters: Direct empirical signal that the candidate side of the imitation loop is closing simultaneously with the employer side. Explicit recognition that volume scales without quality scaling — the structural setup of provenance collapse.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 signal preservation
Residual gaps:
Tags: hiringhrai resume draftingspam applicationscandidate sideindustry surveyimitation loop

Note: Industry survey; HR self-report; sample frame favors AI-aware HR. The 90% spam-rise figure is a perception measure, not a parsed application count.

2025-04-07 SIG_2025_SHOPIFY_AI_BEFORE_HIRING

Shopify requires proof AI cannot do the job before more headcount

evidence B/C confidence medium high Canadaglobal

A Shopify memo said teams must show why AI cannot do a job before requesting headcount, and that AI capability would factor into reviews.

Why it matters: Turns AI-use capability into a career gate and internal mobility signal.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD04 vertical returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA3 adaptability and self-efficacy
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: shopifyai firsthiringperformance review

Note: Reported internal memo; not a public labor-law rule.

2025-04-07 SIG_2025_STANFORD_AI_INDEX_ECONOMY

Stanford AI Index 2025 documents rapid growth in AI-related job-posting skill demand

evidence A/B confidence high USGlobal

Stanford AI Index 2025 reported major growth in AI skills in job postings, including generative-AI skill references rising sharply in 2024.

Why it matters: Demand-side signal for A1 skills capital and lateral mobility; also indicates changing re-entry credential expectations.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: Stanford AI IndexLightcastAI skillsjob postings

Note: Job postings are demand signals, not realized hires.

2025-04-15 SIG_2025_RESUME_NOW_PERSONALIZATION_REJECTION_62

62% of hiring managers reject generic AI-generated resumes without personalization

evidence B confidence medium US

Resume Now report (2025): 78% of hiring managers say personalized details signal genuine interest and fit. 62% say AI-generated resumes without personalization often lead to rejection. 79% believe companies should implement formal guidelines on AI-assisted job applications.

Why it matters: Empirical evidence of provenance-collapse pushback: when both sides of the hiring funnel use AI, employers compensate by screening for human authorship marks. Mirror of the school dynamic — when homework can no longer signal effort, oral exams and in-class essays return.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A4 signal preservationA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps:
Tags: hiringhrai resume rejectionpersonalizationpushbackimitation loopprovenance
Sources: primary 1

Note: Industry survey self-report. Whether managers actually reject AI-only resumes at the rates they claim is not separately validated. The 'personalization' criterion is itself unstable — generative tools can also produce personalized output.

2025-04-23 SIG_2025_HONDA_US_80_PERCENT_RTO

Honda US memo requires 80% onsite work from October 2025

evidence B/C confidence medium US

Honda told US staff they would need to work onsite at least 80% of the week starting 6 October 2025.

Why it matters: Adds non-tech RTO signal; useful for testing whether location-anchor pressure generalizes beyond software firms.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D01 geographic exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: HondaRTOonsitehybrid work

Note: Memo-reported; not independent attrition/outcome data.

2025-05-05 SIG_2025_IBM_AI_REPLACES_HUNDREDS_HR_ROLES

IBM says AI agents replaced hundreds of HR roles while overall hiring grew elsewhere

evidence B confidence medium high USGlobal

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said AI agents replaced several hundred HR roles, while overall employment increased in programming, sales and other areas.

Why it matters: Important walkback against the viral 7,800/8,000 framing: evidence points to role reallocation, not simple one-for-one AI mass replacement.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D06 lateral professional returnD10 employment-form return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndividual panel for employment-form return
Tags: HRAskHRAI agentsrole reallocationwalkback

Note: Use paired with 2023 IBM hiring-pause signal in v0.2; do not encode viral 8,000 rehired claim as verified.

2025-05-08 SIG_2025_KLARNA_REHIRES_HUMANS_AFTER_AI_SUPPORT_PUSH

Klarna begins rehiring human customer-service agents after AI-first service quality concerns

evidence B confidence medium high EUGlobal

Klarna’s CEO told Bloomberg that cost-cutting in customer service fueled by AI had gone too far and that the company was recruiting humans to ensure customers can reach people.

Why it matters: Clean AI-walkback signal for D10: the organization partially restores human roles after AI substitution proved quality-limited.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D10 employment-form returnD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form returnValidated individual return option value
Tags: customer supportAI walkbackrehiringservice qualityemployment form return

Note: Company narrative and media framing vary; code as walkback/rehiring signal, not proof of exact displacement count.

2025-05-09 SIG_2025_NY_BELL_TO_BELL_PHONE_BAN

New York becomes largest US state to enact statewide bell-to-bell smartphone ban in K-12

evidence A confidence high US

Governor Hochul secured statewide bell-to-bell smartphone restrictions in NY K-12 as part of FY2026 budget. No unsanctioned use of phones or internet-enabled personal devices on school grounds for the entire school day. $13.5M for storage solutions. Effective 2025-26 school year.

Why it matters: Largest-state-by-population (~19M residents) commitment to bell-to-bell offline assessment environment. Direct institutional response to provenance collapse in education — parallel to in-person interview returns in hiring.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions:
Agency: A4 signal preservationA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps:
Tags: educationschoolphone banai cheatingprovenancestate lawbell to bellimitation loop pushback

Note: Bell-to-bell means no use during class, lunch, or passing periods. Local districts decide storage method.

2025-05-09 SIG_2025_USCO_GENERATIVE_AI_TRAINING_REPORT

US Copyright Office releases Part 3 pre-publication report on generative-AI training

evidence A confidence high US

The U.S. Copyright Office released a pre-publication Part 3 report on generative-AI training, addressing use of copyrighted works to develop generative AI systems.

Why it matters: Adds a policy-level anchor for training-data provenance and market-substitution risk, central to signal preservation in creative and knowledge professions.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrighttraining datafair usegenerative aipolicy reportprovenancecreative labor

Note: Pre-publication version; track final version separately if released.

2025-05-12 SIG_2025_CHEGG_AI_LAYOFFS

Chegg slashes workforce as AI tools reshape edtech demand

evidence B confidence high US

Chegg announced layoffs of about 22% in May 2025; later reporting described further restructuring as AI tools and search changes undermined demand.

Why it matters: Follow-on workforce case after the 2023 market shock; useful for lagged shock modeling.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: cheggedtechlayoffsai disruption

Note: Separate AI-platform competition from search-distribution shocks.

2025-05-13 SIG_2025_MICROSOFT_MAY_6000_LAYOFFS

Microsoft cuts more than 6,000 employees while streamlining layers

evidence A/B confidence high USGlobal

Microsoft announced layoffs affecting more than 6,000 employees, around 3% of the workforce, amid a push to streamline management layers and invest heavily in AI infrastructure.

Why it matters: AI-era workforce-reallocation signal; useful for vertical mobility and management-layer testing.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: MicrosoftlayoffsAI capexmanagement layers

Note: AI attribution indirect; classify event high, AI-causality medium.

2025-05-15 SIG_2025_BLS_CWS_FIELDED

BLS fields May 2025 Contingent Worker Supplement, with results pending

evidence A confidence high US

BLS fielded the Contingent Worker Supplement in FY2025/May 2025 after the 2017 and 2023 waves; results were pending as of this corpus update.

Why it matters: Data-infrastructure signal for D09/D10: the next wave can improve measurement of contingent and alternative work but still may not fully capture return capacity.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: BLSCWScontingent workalternative workdata infrastructure

Note: Official results not yet published in the checked sources; event is fielding/data-infrastructure, not results.

2025-05-29 SIG_2025_BLUE_BOOK_REVIVAL_UNIVERSITIES

Universities revive blue-book in-person handwritten exams as ChatGPT pushback

evidence B confidence medium US

Wall Street Journal and Entrepreneur reported (May 2025) blue-book exam booklet sales rising sharply at major US universities: +30% at Texas A&M, +50% at University of Florida, +80% at UC Berkeley over the prior two years. Roaring Spring Paper Products (manufacturer) confirms AI-driven demand. Yale, Princeton, UW-Madison, Merrimack faculty publicly switched from take-home essays to in-class blue-book assessments to neutralize ChatGPT use.

Why it matters: Higher-education analog of the resume-personalization rejection: when assignments can no longer prove individual cognition, institutions revert to physically supervised, AI-impossible formats. Direct visualization of the school-side imitation-loop pushback.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions:
Agency: A4 signal preservation
Residual gaps:
Tags: educationuniversityblue bookin person examai cheatingchatgptprovenanceimitation loop pushback

Note: Industry sales data from Roaring Spring; not all universities surveyed. Trend is real but counter-current persists — some faculty argue blue books cannot substitute for take-home research papers.

2025-06-05 SIG_2025_OSU_AI_FLUENCY_REQUIREMENT

Ohio State launches AI Fluency initiative requiring undergraduates to graduate AI-fluent

evidence A/B confidence high US

Ohio State announced an AI Fluency initiative launching in autumn 2025 for first-year students, aiming for every graduate starting with the class of 2029 to be fluent in AI and its application in their field.

Why it matters: Strong education-to-labor-market signal: AI literacy is becoming a formal component of general employability and credential value, not just a specialist skill.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA5 credential portability
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationhigher edai fluencycurriculumworkforce readinesscredentialing

Note: Outcome evidence not yet available; classify as policy/curriculum signal.

2025-06-09 SIG_2025_CHINA_GAOKAO_AI_TOOL_FREEZE

Chinese AI tools temporarily disable image/question functions during gaokao exams

evidence B confidence medium high CN

During the 2025 gaokao, Chinese AI services including Qwen, Doubao, Kimi and Tencent Yuanbao reportedly restricted or paused image-recognition and exam-question-answering functions during exam hours to preserve test fairness.

Why it matters: A non-Western parallel to blue books/phone bans: when provenance cannot be reliably inferred, institutions and platforms reduce the AI-access surface during high-stakes credentialing.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: China/Russia task-vector comparabilityIntegrated agency validation
Tags: chinagaokaoeducationai cheatingplatform restrictionphysical surface reductionprovenance

Note: Not clear whether restrictions were voluntary platform policy or state-directed. Code as platform/exam-integrity signal with medium-high confidence.

2025-06-15 SIG_2025_UK_AI_CHEATING_CASES_GUARDIAN_SURVEY

Guardian survey finds confirmed AI-cheating cases rising sharply across UK universities

evidence B confidence medium high UK

A Guardian investigation reported nearly 7,000 confirmed UK university AI-cheating cases in 2023-24, up from 1.6 to 5.1 cases per 1,000 students year-on-year, while many universities still did not separately track AI misuse.

Why it matters: Adds prevalence pressure: even if detectors are unreliable, institutions face rising confirmed misconduct, explaining why crude provenance-restoration mechanisms keep reappearing.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: educationai cheatingacademic integrityuniversityprovenanceassessment
Sources: secondary 1

Note: Survey/investigation data; use as trend signal, not fully harmonized official statistics.

2025-06-22 SIG_2025_TEXAS_TRAIGA_SIGNED

Texas signs Responsible Artificial Intelligence Governance Act, creating broad state AI compliance obligations

evidence A/B confidence high US

Texas enacted the Responsible Artificial Intelligence Governance Act (TRAIGA), effective January 1, 2026, creating broad state-level rules for AI systems and prohibited uses, with implications for employers using AI in workplace decisions.

Why it matters: Adds a large-state regulatory anchor for HR AI risk: not a narrow hiring statute, but part of the state-by-state institutional constraint environment around AI deployment.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: state lawai governanceemployment aicivil penaltiesalgorithmic discriminationtexas

Note: Do not overstate employment-specificity; TRAIGA is broader than employment.

2025-06-23 SIG_2025_BARTZ_ANTHROPIC_FAIR_USE_SPLIT

Bartz v. Anthropic ruling treats AI training on lawfully acquired books as fair use but not retention of pirated copies

evidence A/B confidence high US

In Bartz v. Anthropic, the court held that using lawfully acquired books for LLM training was fair use, while retaining pirated copies for a library was not protected in the same way.

Why it matters: Nuanced provenance/IP signal: source legitimacy and retention practices matter separately from model training itself, affecting how creators' signals are protected.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrightfair useanthropicbookstraining datapirated booksprovenancecreative labor

Note: Use carefully: this is a split ruling, not blanket permission for all AI training uses.

2025-06-25 SIG_2025_KADREY_META_FAIR_USE_RULING

Kadrey v. Meta court grants Meta partial summary judgment on fair use for AI training record before it

evidence A/B confidence high US

In Kadrey v. Meta, the court granted Meta's cross-motion for partial summary judgment on fair use on the record presented, while commentary emphasized the ruling's fact-specific limits.

Why it matters: Adds counterweight to Thomson Reuters and Bartz: courts are producing divergent, fact-specific signals about whether training-data use preserves or erodes creators' market value.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: copyrightfair usemetallamabookstraining dataprovenancecreative labor

Note: Do not generalize beyond the evidence record; court noted plaintiffs' market-harm theory could matter in a better-developed case.

2025-06-30 SIG_2025_CALIFORNIA_EMPLOYMENT_AI_REGS

California approves employment-discrimination regulations for automated decision systems

evidence A confidence high USCalifornia

California's Civil Rights Council announced final approval of regulations clarifying how employment-discrimination law applies to AI, algorithms and automated decision systems.

Why it matters: Major state-level institutional-constraint signal for US country operationalization and algorithmic hiring tests.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exitD03 vertical exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringemployment decisionsautomated decision systemsCaliforniadiscrimination

Note: Effective date reported by practitioner sources as Oct 1, 2025.

2025-07-02 SIG_2025_MICROSOFT_JULY_9000_LAYOFFS

Microsoft cuts about 9,100 jobs amid AI infrastructure spending and layer reduction

evidence A/B confidence high USGlobal

Reuters reported Microsoft would cut nearly 4% of its workforce, about 9,100 jobs, while pursuing cost reduction amid heavy AI infrastructure investment.

Why it matters: High-signal enterprise workforce restructuring case: AI-capex pressure and delayering affect mobility opportunities even without direct automation proof.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: MicrosoftlayoffsAI capexXboxmanagement layers

Note: Use as restructuring/capex signal, not proof of direct AI replacement.

2025-07-10 SIG_2025_METR_AI_SLOWS_EXPERIENCED_DEVELOPERS_RCT

METR RCT finds early-2025 AI tools slowed experienced open-source developers on familiar tasks

evidence A confidence high Global

METR reported an RCT in which experienced developers expected AI to speed work by 24%, but measured task completion took 19% longer with AI on familiar codebases.

Why it matters: Counter-signal to simple AI-productivity assumptions used in workforce-displacement narratives and option-value scoring.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: METRAI productivitysoftware developersRCTCursor

Note: Task/context-specific; not a general anti-AI productivity result.

2025-07-18 SIG_2025_CALIFORNIA_COURT_AI_POLICY

California courts adopt generative AI policy rule for judges and court staff

evidence B confidence high USCalifornia

California's court system adopted a rule requiring courts to either ban generative AI or establish policies addressing confidentiality, privacy, bias, oversight, transparency and verification.

Why it matters: Useful professional workflow signal for legal sector: AI use shifts from informal experimentation to governable competence and oversight regime.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D08 industry returnD04 vertical return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricVertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: legal aicourtsjudgescourt staffprofessional workflow
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2025-08-04 SIG_2025_HARPER_SIRIUSXM_AI_HIRING_LAWSUIT

Harper v. SiriusXM filed as employer-side AI hiring-bias lawsuit involving commercial applicant-screening tools

evidence B/C confidence medium US

An unsuccessful applicant filed Harper v. SiriusXM in the Eastern District of Michigan, alleging that SiriusXM's use of an AI-assisted applicant-tracking or screening tool discriminated against him based on race.

Why it matters: Useful counterpart to Mobley v. Workday: shifts the testing surface from vendor-only liability toward employer liability for deployed commercial AI hiring systems.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringhrapplicant trackingai screeningrace discriminationtitle viiicimsemployer liability

Note: Early-stage litigation. Allegations are unproven; keep confidence medium.

2025-08-15 SIG_2025_STANFORD_CANARIES_AI_ENTRY_LEVEL

Stanford Digital Economy Lab paper finds relative employment declines for young workers in AI-exposed occupations

evidence A/B confidence high US

Brynjolfsson, Chandar and Chen used high-frequency payroll data and found early-career workers in AI-exposed occupations experienced a relative employment decline after generative-AI adoption.

Why it matters: High-signal empirical stress test for lateral/vertical entry and return: AI exposure may reduce entry-level opportunities while leaving older workers less affected.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional returnD04 vertical return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationVertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: Stanford DELADPentry levelAI exposureyoung workers

Note: Working paper; strong data, still subject to ongoing academic debate.

2025-08-18 SIG_2025_DUOLINGO_AI_FIRST_CONTRACTOR_WALKBACK

Duolingo CEO clarifies AI-first contractor phaseout does not imply full-time layoffs

evidence C confidence medium USGlobal

After backlash over an AI-first memo, Duolingo’s CEO clarified that the company had not laid off full-time employees due to AI and that contractor changes were tied to project needs.

Why it matters: Useful paired signal: contractor dependence can be reduced while core employment is retained, complicating D10 coding.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: contractorsAI firstwalkbackcontent work

Note: C-level corporate clarification; code as narrative/walkback, not independent employment data.

2025-08-29 SIG_2025_AI_SELF_PREFERENCE_HIRING_PAPER

Study: LLMs prefer resumes generated by themselves, 23-60% shortlist advantage

evidence A confidence high USglobal

Jiang et al. (arXiv:2509.00462) report that in controlled resume-screening experiments LLMs systematically favor resumes generated by the same model over human-written or rival-model resumes, even with content quality controlled. Simulations across 24 occupations show candidates using the same LLM as the evaluator are 23-60% more likely to be shortlisted; effect strongest in business-related fields like sales and accounting. Self-preference can be reduced >50% with self-recognition interventions.

Why it matters: Empirical evidence that AI hiring tools introduce a new layer of selection bias keyed to AI-tooling overlap between applicant and employer, not to candidate quality. Concrete mechanism behind the article A claim that signal preservation is breaking down.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 signal preservationA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: I03 IRAS
Tags: self preferencehiringhrapplicant scoringai screeningfairnessresearch

Note: Pre-print (Aug 2025); peer-reviewed publication pending in M&SOM. 23-60% range from simulation, not field data. LLM-vs-LLM bias is weaker than LLM-vs-human bias.

2025-09-02 SIG_2025_SALESFORCE_SUPPORT_AI_CUTS

Salesforce CEO says AI agents enabled reduction of 4,000 customer-support roles

evidence B/C confidence medium high USGlobal

Benioff said Salesforce reduced customer-support headcount from about 9,000 to 5,000 as Agentforce and AI agents handled more work.

Why it matters: Strong corporate self-disclosure for service-work AI substitution; still needs headcount validation from filings.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D10 employment-form returnD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identityA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form returnIntegrated agency validation
Tags: SalesforceAgentforcecustomer supportAI agentslayoffs

Note: Code as CEO disclosure; not a public WARN/filing count.

2025-09-09 SIG_2025_BLS_PRELIMINARY_BENCHMARK_REVISION

BLS preliminary benchmark revision shows 911,000 fewer payroll jobs through March 2025

evidence A confidence high US

BLS preliminary benchmark data indicated total nonfarm payroll employment for March 2025 would be revised down by 911,000 jobs.

Why it matters: Macro labor-market signal that affects all mobility liquidity estimates; do not over-attribute to AI without further evidence.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD05 lateral professional exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: BLSCESbenchmark revisionQCEWlabor market

Note: Corrected from uploaded candidate’s -991,000 to verified -911,000.

2025-09-17 SIG_2025_CN_YOUTH_UNEMPLOYMENT_189

China youth unemployment reaches 18.9% under revised methodology

evidence A/B confidence high CN

Reuters reported NBS data showing China’s 16–24 unemployment rate excluding students reached 18.9% in August 2025, the highest under the revised methodology.

Why it matters: D06/D10 stress signal: high youth unemployment constrains vertical/lateral entry and increases pressure toward flexible work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D06 lateral professional returnD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: China/Russia task-vector comparability
Tags: Chinayouth unemploymentgraduateslabor market

Note: Use with caveat: students excluded after methodology change; cross-time comparability to pre-2023 data is limited.

2025-10-08 SIG_2025_ACU_TURNITIN_ROBO_CHEATING_SCANDAL

Australian Catholic University stops using Turnitin AI indicator after mass false-accusation controversy

evidence B confidence medium high Australia

ABC reported that Australian Catholic University had abandoned Turnitin's AI-detection tool in March 2025 after finding it ineffective; students described wrongful or prolonged AI-misconduct accusations and stress around investigations.

Why it matters: A larger-scale institutional rollback than Vanderbilt: demonstrates that AI detection can become a credential-harm mechanism when used in high-volume academic misconduct workflows.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: educationturnitinfalse positivestudent harmacademic integrityprovenance

Note: Reported in Oct 2025; cessation occurred in March 2025. Code event_date as public-report date and update_date as approximate cessation month.

2025-11-19 SIG_2025_RUSSIA_NATIONAL_AI_TASK_FORCE

Russia calls for national generative AI task force and domestic model push

evidence B confidence medium RU

President Putin called for a national task force to coordinate generative AI development, domestic models and infrastructure, including a target for AI contribution to GDP.

Why it matters: Useful macro signal for RU: professional workflows may bifurcate between domestic and foreign AI stacks, affecting agency and mobility comparability.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD07 industry exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Post-2022 Russian credential operationChina/Russia task-vector comparability
Tags: Russiasovereign aiworkforcedomestic modelspolicy
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2025-11-19 SIG_2025_SBER_AI_EFFICIENCY_LAYOFFS

Sber publicly frames personnel cuts through AI-identified inefficiency

evidence B/C confidence medium RU

At AI Journey, Herman Gref said Sber had cut almost / up to 20% of personnel identified as inefficient with AI assistance. Putin replied that there are no inefficient employees, only employees management worked with poorly; later reporting said the cuts and perceived competition with AI became a shock inside Sber.

Why it matters: Rare public allocator case: an AI-assisted employee-evaluation process becomes a responsibility dispute about whether the algorithm or management owns the human consequence.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD05 lateral professional exitD07 industry exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: sbergrefputinalgorithmic managementlayoffsai efficiencyrussia it

Note: Do not claim 20% of all Sber employees without filing-level confirmation; strongest fact is the public first-person statement and the responsibility dispute.

2025-12-01 SIG_2025_US_STATES_PHONE_BANS_28_STATES

28+ US states enact K-12 cellphone bans/restrictions in 2025

evidence A confidence high US

By December 2025, 35 states + DC had enacted laws or policies regulating student cellphone use in K-12 classrooms (Ballotpedia). 22 of these laws were enacted during 2025 alone (ExcelinEd). Texas, Arizona, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Idaho, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin among them.

Why it matters: Aggregate signal: phone bans went from a handful of states (early 2024) to a national policy default in 18 months. Empirical demonstration of how fast institutional restoration of offline-assessment can scale when AI use compromises the existing signal channel.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions:
Agency: A4 signal preservationA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps:
Tags: educationschoolphone banai cheatingprovenancestate law patternimitation loop pushback

Note: Different states use different definitions (bell-to-bell vs class-time-only vs district-discretion). Trend direction unambiguous; exact count varies by source taxonomy.

2025-12-02 SIG_2025_NYC_LL144_ENFORCEMENT_AUDIT

NY State Comptroller audit finds NYC Local Law 144 enforcement ineffective

evidence A confidence high US

The NY State Comptroller found DCWP’s enforcement of Local Law 144 ineffective, including complaint-routing and compliance-review problems.

Why it matters: Critical implementation signal: having an AI hiring law does not mean effective candidate protection or signal correction.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: NYC LL144AEDTAI hiringenforcementaudit

Note: Adds enforcement-quality layer to the existing v0.2 LL144 signal.

2025-12-03 SIG_2025_RU_SELF_EMPLOYED_15M_FNS

Russian FNS data show registered self-employed exceeding 15 million in Jan–Nov 2025

evidence A/B confidence medium high RU

Russian tax data reported 15.168 million registered self-employed in January–November 2025, up 24.2% from 12.208 million.

Why it matters: Scale signal for D09/D10: the NPD tax regime base is large enough that return-to-wage and contractor-misclassification measurement matters.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: self-employedRussian Federal Tax ServiceNPD tax regimeself employmentlabor market

Note: Use official FNS-backed counts where possible; media summaries are secondary.

2025-12-11 SIG_2025_FOUSHEE_AI_JOBS_REPORT

Rep. Foushee releases congressional report seeking transparency on AI-related job cuts

evidence A/C confidence medium high US

Rep. Valerie Foushee released a congressional report and investigation push requesting clarity from industry leaders about AI’s impact on American jobs.

Why it matters: Policy/data-demand signal: legislators are treating AI-layoff attribution as an unresolved measurement gap.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndividual panel for employment-form return
Tags: AI jobsCongresslayoffstransparencyworkforce impact

Note: The report’s job-cut attribution is political/compiled evidence; code as policy signal, not official labor statistics.

2026-01-01 SIG_2026_ILLINOIS_AI_EMPLOYMENT_AMENDMENTS

Illinois AI-in-employment amendments take effect

evidence B confidence medium high USIllinois

Illinois HB 3773 amendments to the Human Rights Act took effect January 1, 2026, prohibiting discriminatory AI use in employment decisions and requiring notice in certain contexts.

Why it matters: Adds a 2026 state-law signal to test regulatory variation in algorithmic hiring, promotions and workplace scoring.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringpromotionemployment decisionsIllinoisAI notice

Note: Use legal text as primary; practitioner summaries for implementation details.

2026-01-01 SIG_2026_RU_NPD_SICKNESS_INSURANCE_PILOT

Russia begins voluntary sickness-insurance pilot for self-employed NPD workers

evidence B confidence medium RU

Russia began a voluntary sickness-insurance pilot for self-employed NPD workers from 1 January 2026, improving partial benefit portability for that employment form.

Why it matters: D10 signal: social-protection features reduce the sharpness of employee↔self-employed boundary, but do not directly measure return to payroll work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: self-employedNPD tax regimesick leavesocial insuranceemployment form return

Note: Factcheck adjusted: uploaded candidate dated the signing as 2024; checked sources point to 2025 tax reform / 2026 effective date. Keep confidence medium until official law text is pinned.

2026-01-21 SIG_2026_EIGHTFOLD_FCRA

Class action targets Eightfold AI over opaque applicant scoring and data use

evidence A/B confidence medium US

Applicants sued Eightfold AI alleging hidden data collection and AI-generated fit/personality-like scoring without FCRA-style disclosure, consent or dispute mechanisms.

Why it matters: Concrete legal incident involving alleged AI harm in recruiting and applicant evaluation.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: hiringhrapplicant scoringprivacyfcraworkplace ai

Note: Allegations unresolved; code as opacity/privacy/process signal, not proven bias.

2026-02-10 SIG_2026_BLS_CWS_REVISION_NOTICE

Federal Register notice proposes July 2026 CWS revisions for digital labor platform work

evidence A confidence high US

BLS published a Federal Register notice for proposed revisions to the CWS to incorporate updates to digital labor platform work questions in July 2026.

Why it matters: Directly addresses the D10 measurement gap by expanding official survey questions around platform work.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form return
Tags: BLSCWSdigital platform workmeasurement gap

Note: Measurement-update signal; does not itself provide realized-transition panel data.

2026-02-11 SIG_2026_RU_IT_JUNIOR_SQUEEZE_AI_MARKET

Russian IT junior squeeze hardens as vacancies fall and AI raises entry-level bar

evidence B confidence medium RU

Russian IT labor-market reporting in 2025-2026 describes fewer vacancies, more resumes per vacancy, a shift toward an employer market, and stronger demand for AI/ML, cybersecurity, DevOps/SRE and experienced candidates, leaving junior developers exposed to both budget tightening and AI-enabled productivity expectations.

Why it matters: This is the entry-door mechanism for Biography 5: the new developer is squeezed before career signal can form.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA3 adaptability and self-efficacyA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndividual panel for employment-form return
Tags: russia itjuniorentry levelai competitionemployer marketvacanciessalary stagnation

Note: Exact resumes-per-vacancy values are secondary/aggregated; use as directionally robust junior-squeeze signal, not official hh.ru microdata.

2026-02-13 SIG_2026_RATIONALFX_TECH_LAYOFFS_AI_AUTOMATION

RationalFX early-2026 tracker frames tech layoffs as on pace to exceed 2025

evidence B/C confidence medium globalUS

RationalFX-linked reporting counted about 30,700 global tech layoffs in the first six weeks / early 2026, about 24,600 of them in the US, and framed 2026 as potentially exceeding 2025 if the pace continued; 2025 AI/automation-linked cuts were estimated at about 69,840 / 28.5%.

Why it matters: Provides macro context for Oracle/Softline/Sber: AI-linked layoffs are not only direct role substitution but a budget, automation and capital-allocation frame across the sector.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: tech layoffsautomationai adoptionglobal contextrationalfx

Note: Use as frame only: not official labor statistics, not January-only, and AI/automation attribution is based on tracker/reporting categories.

2026-02-24 SIG_2026_ONET_302_JOB_ZONE_UPDATE

O*NET 30.2 updates Job Zones with new four-level framework and 325 occupation reassignments

evidence A confidence high US

O*NET 30.2 updated 886 occupations and reassigned Job Zones for 325 occupations using a new four-level framework reflecting increased skill demands.

Why it matters: Methodology signal for D04/D05/D08: level equivalence and skill-demand shifts affect vertical return and industry re-entry scoring.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD05 lateral professional exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: O*NETJob Zonesoccupation taxonomyskill demandssignal preservation

Note: This is a data-release signal, not a labor-market event.

2026-03-11 SIG_2026_ATLASSIAN_AI_PIVOT_LAYOFFS

Atlassian cuts roughly 10% of workforce while pivoting to AI and enterprise sales

evidence B confidence high AustraliaUSIndiaglobal

Atlassian said it would cut about 1,600 jobs, around 10% of its workforce, while rebalancing toward AI and enterprise sales.

Why it matters: Strong example of AI-era workforce reconfiguration by skill mix rather than simple headcount shrinkage.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD04 vertical returnD07 industry exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA3 adaptability and self-efficacyA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: atlassiansoftwareai pivotskill mix
Sources: primary 1

Note: Code as skill-mix change; avoid pure replacement claim.

2026-03-20 SIG_2026_RUSSIA_FOREIGN_AI_RESTRICTION_DRAFT

Russia proposes powers to restrict foreign AI tools

evidence B confidence medium RU

Reuters reported draft Russian rules that would allow the government to ban or restrict foreign AI tools if they fail to comply with Russian rules, including data-storage expectations.

Why it matters: RU country-operationalization signal: foreign-tool access and data localization can directly affect professional workflow, credential portability and task-vector comparability.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional returnD08 industry return
Agency: A7 institutional constraintsA5 credential portability
Residual gaps: Post-2022 Russian credential operationChina/Russia task-vector comparability
Tags: Russiaforeign aidata localizationsovereign airegulation
Sources: primary 1

Note: Draft/proposed rules; code as future regulatory-risk signal, not enacted law.

2026-03-24 SIG_2026_AIR_AI_FTC_BUSINESS_OPPORTUNITY

FTC settlement bans Air AI from marketing business opportunities after AI-sales claims

evidence A confidence high US

The FTC announced a settlement under which Air AI and its owners would be banned from marketing business opportunities over allegations they misled consumers.

Why it matters: Another employment-form exit signal: AI tools marketed as income pathways can impair agency when claims are misleading and switching costs are borne by individuals.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D09 employment-form exitD10 employment-form return
Agency: A2 career identityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Individual panel for employment-form returnValidated individual return option value
Tags: ai business opportunitysales automationentrepreneurshipdeceptive claims
Sources: primary 1

Note:

2026-03-24 SIG_2026_ANTHROPIC_ECONOMIC_INDEX_LEARNING_CURVES

Anthropic Economic Index March 2026 adds learning-curve analysis using Opus 4.5/4.6 period data

evidence A/B confidence high Global

Anthropic’s March 2026 Economic Index report studied February 2026 Claude usage and learning curves after Opus 4.5/4.6 releases.

Why it matters: Useful time-series signal for adoption and skill adaptation; can support A1/A2 proxy updates.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA2 career identity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: Anthropic Economic Indexlearning curvesAI usageOpus

Note: Use as adoption/usage signal, not causal employment impact.

2026-04-01 SIG_2026_ORACLE_AI_CAPEX_LAYOFFS

Oracle layoffs become high-signal AI-capex workforce case

evidence B confidence medium USglobal

Reliable reporting said Oracle began cutting thousands of jobs while stepping up AI/datacenter spending; SEC/company materials also point to a large restructuring-cost envelope. The strongest confirmed signal is AI-era capital and organizational reallocation, not proven one-for-one AI substitution.

Why it matters: Useful for modeling displacement through capital reallocation and infrastructure spend.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: oraclelayoffsai spendingdatacentersrestructuringai capex

Note: Causality mixed: AI-capex / restructuring shift confirmed; direct AI replacement and the 30,000-layoff number remain weaker secondary framing and should not be stated as settled fact.

2026-04-23 SIG_2026_MERCOR_AI_RECRUITING_BREACH_LAWSUITS

Mercor AI recruiting platform faces ≥7 class actions after breach exposes biometrics and worker data

evidence B confidence high US

WSJ reported on April 23, 2026 that Mercor, a $10B-valued AI recruiting and model-training contractor platform, was facing at least seven class actions after a breach exposed contractor interview recordings, facial biometric data, screenshots of workers' computers, and other records. Earlier reporting linked the incident to a LiteLLM open-source supply-chain compromise; Meta paused work with the company.

Why it matters: Concrete AI-workflow incident in HR/recruiting lane with clear privacy harm + AI-tool supply-chain angle. Tests how new categories of AI infrastructure (model-training contractor platforms, MCP/LLM tooling) extend the attack surface for worker data.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 signal preservationA6 labor-market liquidityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps:
Tags: hrrecruitingprivacydata breachbiometricssupply chainai supply chain

Note: Allegations unresolved; supply-chain attribution to LiteLLM is per Mercor self-disclosure.

2026-04-24 SIG_2026_UTAH_BOARD_AI_RX_SUSPENSION_CALL

Utah Medical Licensing Board calls for immediate suspension of AI prescription-refill pilot

evidence B confidence high US

Utah's Medical Licensing Board called for immediate suspension of the state Doctronic AI prescription-renewal pilot, citing patient-safety, oversight, and decision-making concerns around AI-driven refill workflows.

Why it matters: Concrete advisory/regulatory intervention against AI use in a daily licensed-professional healthcare workflow. Tests whether L4 trust-mediation institutions (medical licensing boards) push back when AI penetrates regulated decisions.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D05 lateral professional exitD09 employment-form exit
Agency: A4 signal preservationA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps:
Tags: healthcareclinical workflowprescription refillpatient safetyregulatory actionadvisoryprofessional workflow

Note: Board called for suspension; not yet a formal enforcement action.

2026-04-27 SIG_2026_ALABAMA_AI_FAKE_CASE_SANCTION

Alabama Supreme Court sanctions lawyer for AI-generated fake citations

evidence B confidence high USAlabama

Reuters reported Alabama's top court dismissed an appeal and sanctioned a lawyer whose filings included fabricated AI-generated citations.

Why it matters: Shows Mata-style failure mode persisted into 2026 as repeated professional-liability pattern.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D06 lateral professional returnD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: lawfake casessanctionsprofessional liability
Sources: primary 1

Note: Longitudinal clustering after 2023.

2026-04-28 SIG_2026_SENATE_GUARD_ACT_AI_CHATBOTS_MINORS

U.S. Senate committee advances bipartisan GUARD Act restricting AI companions for minors

evidence B confidence medium US

Senate Judiciary Committee advanced the GUARD Act after documented reports of minors being targeted by AI companion chatbots, including sexually explicit and emotionally manipulative interactions. The bill would restrict AI companions for minors and require disclosure that chatbots are non-human.

Why it matters: Federal-level institutional response to documented harmful AI chatbot interactions with minors. Tests how fast L4 trust-mediation institutions move on AI products that bypass professional gatekeepers.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions:
Agency: A7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps:
Tags: regulatory responsechild safetyai companionschatbot harmadvisorylegislation

Note: Committee passage only; full Senate vote and House action pending. Bipartisan but not yet law.

2026-04-30 SIG_2026_META_AI_CAPEX_LAYOFFS

Meta CEO links layoffs to AI infrastructure capital-spending tradeoff

evidence B confidence medium USglobal

Reuters reported Meta's CEO attributed upcoming layoffs to increased capital investment in AI computing infrastructure while saying cuts were not directly due to AI reorganization.

Why it matters: Separates AI-capex displacement pressure from direct role automation.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD07 industry exit
Agency: A6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validation
Tags: metaai capexinfrastructurelayoffs
Sources: primary 1

Note: Code as AI-capex tradeoff, not confirmed replacement.

2026-05-01 SIG_2026_SUPERVISING_LAWYER_AI_SANCTION

Federal judge sanctions supervising lawyer for AI-assisted false citation by subordinate

evidence B confidence high USCalifornia

Reuters reported a federal judge sanctioned a managing partner for a false case citation generated with help from an AI legal research tool used by a junior attorney.

Why it matters: Moves AI professional-risk signal from individual misuse to supervisory responsibility and organizational controls.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD08 industry return
Agency: A3 adaptability and self-efficacyA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: lawlegal aisupervisionsanctions
Sources: primary 1

Note: Managerial/vertical responsibility under AI workflows.

2026-05-13 SIG_2026_RU_IT_WAGE_POLARIZATION_AI_ML_PREMIUM

Russian IT wages polarize as aggregate growth slows but AI/ML and security remain expensive

evidence B confidence medium RU

CNews/SuperJob-linked reporting said Russian IT salary growth slowed to about 4.1% YoY, below inflation, while AI/ML engineers, cybersecurity specialists, DevOps/SRE and data roles continued to command stronger salary bands.

Why it matters: Supports the asymmetry claim: the market can cut people and still pay more for scarce frontier skills, so shortage and layoffs coexist.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD04 vertical returnD05 lateral professional exit
Agency: A1 skills capitalA3 adaptability and self-efficacyA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Vertical return and track-switch stigmaIntegrated agency validation
Tags: russia itsalaryai mlcybersecuritydevopsskill premiumshortage with layoffs

Note: Salary levels vary by city, grade and stack; use for directional polarization, not a single national pay scale.

2026-05-22 SIG_2026_SOFTLINE_AI_STAFF_OPTIMIZATION

Softline cuts about 800 staff while citing AI-linked efficiency gains

evidence B/C confidence medium high RU

CNews and company-linked disclosures show Softline headcount falling from about 11.1k in Q1 2025 to 10.3k by 31 March 2026, roughly 800 fewer employees, while Q1 2026 turnover grew 5% YoY. Management tied optimization partly to AI in routine processes including development and testing, M&A integration and performance assessment.

Why it matters: Local Russian analogue to Oracle: the internal Russian door narrows through the same efficiency / AI-reallocation language, not only through sanctions or foreign-market closure.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD07 industry exitD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA6 labor-market liquidity
Residual gaps: Industry re-entry signal preservation metricIntegrated agency validation
Tags: softlinerussia itlayoffsai efficiencysoftware developmenttestingpost merger integration

Note: Code as AI-era efficiency / restructuring signal. AI is one named factor among several; avoid one-for-one replacement wording.

2026-06-01 SIG_2026_RU_AI_SECURITY_GOVERNANCE_GAP

K2/Kaspersky survey finds Russian AI adoption outpacing AI-security governance

evidence B/C confidence medium high RU

K2 Cybersecurity and Kaspersky published a 2026 study based on January-April research: 500 large Russian-market companies in the sample, with a focus on 210 AI-engaged organizations. Among AI-engaged respondents, 32% expected moderate losses if AI services became unavailable and 11% treated AI as critical for key processes or many operations.

Why it matters: Shows the ProfGames governance gap: AI is already embedded in work, while institutional control over models, data and responsibility is still catching up.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D03 vertical exitD04 vertical returnD08 industry return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA3 adaptability and self-efficacyA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationIndustry re-entry signal preservation metric
Tags: russia itai securityMLSecOpsshadow aiexternal modelsgovernanceoperational dependency
Sources: primary 1

Note: Industry/vendor survey, not official statistics. Use for operational-dependency and governance-maturity framing, not as direct employment or layoff evidence.

2026-06-01 SIG_2026_RU_MLSECOPS_SHADOW_AI_CONTROL_GAP

Russian companies report limited real control over external AI services and low MLSecOps maturity

evidence B/C confidence medium high RU

In the K2/Kaspersky survey, 61% of respondents said they try to control employee use of third-party AI services, but real control is implemented by 29%; 47% rely on passive monitoring/training and 24% block access. MLSecOps remains immature: 46% are unfamiliar with it, 40% know it superficially, 14% understand it well; among organizations with own AI development, managed processes are reported by 18% and mature practice by 7%.

Why it matters: Adds a professional-boundary signal: AI security / MLSecOps becomes a new translator role between employee practice, model supply chains, data governance and corporate risk.

Framework tags and sources
Dimensions: D04 vertical returnD05 lateral professional exitD06 lateral professional return
Agency: A1 skills capitalA5 credential portabilityA7 institutional constraints
Residual gaps: Integrated agency validationVertical return and track-switch stigma
Tags: russia itshadow aiMLSecOpsai security engineerexternal modelsmodel registrysecurity process
Sources: primary 1

Note: Do not overstate as security incident prevalence. The signal is maturity/control gap and emerging role boundary, with numbers self-reported in an industry study.